Friday, June 05, 2015
Breaking: New Poll Suggests The NDP is Now Leading the Other Parties.
For weeks Tom Mulcair and the NDP have been climbing steadily in the polls, and it was clear that if that trend continued it was only a matter of time before they passed the other parties.
Well now they finally appear to have done it.
According to the latest EKOS poll they are now in first place.
Just as it looked like we were setting into a three-way tie, the NDP appears to be opening up some daylight between itself and the Conservatives — who are still stuck at sub-30 — and the listless Liberals, still drifting downward in a significant erosion of their support.
And according to this poll and others, still climbing.
The Liberals continue to decline as the NDP continues to rise. The Conservatives are languishing well back of where they need to be for a reasonable shot at another stable government.
And while it's hard to say what exactly is responsible for the decline of the Liberals, and whether their support of Bill C-51 is hurting them as badly as many predicted it would.
But one has to think it has had an effect, and that together with Rachel Notley's victory in Alberta, and Tom Mulcair's strong performance, has made the NDP a legitimate option to replace the Cons.
Right across the country...
And nowhere more than in Quebec.
The NDP now holds a commanding lead in Quebec and enjoys double the support of any of the other three contenders. Liberal support has dropped considerably in Quebec; the party now finds itself in a three-way tie for second place.
Where just like they did last time when they thought Ignatieff's Liberals were fading, Quebecers are rushing to back the progressive party they think has the best chance of beating the Cons.
That surge could also grow if the Bloc numbers which seem a little high to me, and may have been influenced by the death of Jacques Parizeau the day before the polling ended, start bleeding away to the NDP as they did last time.
But of course the best news is that this is just the latest poll to suggest that Stephen Harper is in big trouble.
The Conservative base is down and its opportunities for growth are extremely limited. Harper’s personal numbers are dismal; the number of voters who disapprove of him is almost twice the number who approve of him now. Following a brief warming trend in the fall of last year, Harper’s personal numbers have been in retreat and are now tracking near historical lows.
Not just because his popularity is tanking, but also because his whole campaign to date has been aimed at Justin Trudeau...
And this latest ad's claim that Justin is not ready right NOW, rather than boost Harper's numbers may actually be making it easier for some Liberal voters to switch to the NDP.
Who said Great Monkey Leader was a political genius eh?
As to what the future holds, it's too soon to say. But the latest Senate scandal will probably help the NDP since they have no senators, and believe the Senate should be abolished.
The political leader debates should help boost Mulcair since he is a very good debater.
And since there are now so many progressives who will do ANYTHING to defeat the Harper Cons, what's happening in Quebec could be replicated to some degree in other parts of the country, where more could join the NDP surge.
Just like they would have joined a Liberal surge if they had been ahead, and the NDP had been fading at this stage in the campaign.
Which explains why, as I said in my last post, Harper is looking so desperate.
Because although it's hard to quantify, change does seem to be in the air. And it was always going to be Harper's biggest enemy.
He's been around too long, you can't put lipstick on a mummy, or a monster.
And with a little bit of luck, this long nightmare could soon be over...
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