Thursday, August 28, 2014
Stephen Harper and the Deep Not So Blue Ontario Sea
It was so beautiful and warm yesterday I wish I could have spent the whole day sunning myself on the beach, or swimming in Lake Ontario.
Because when I saw the lifeguard boys racing for home at the end of their shifts, I was reminded that summer will soon be following them.
Which was a really depressing thought eh?
Until I thought that maybe they were just racing to save Stephen Harper.
Because when it comes to the province of Ontario, he's definitely going under.
The province that handed Stephen Harper’s Conservatives a majority government in 2011 may be about to take it away, as Ontarians move from the governing Tories back towards Justin Trudeau’s Liberals.
The Conservatives won 73 seats in Ontario in the 2011 federal election, the best performance of the party and its predecessors in raw seat count since 1917 and the First World War.
But Ontario is not immune from the drop in support the Conservatives have experienced nationwide. In polls conducted in 2014, the Tories have averaged only 34 per cent in Ontario. That would be the party’s worst performance since 2004, when the Liberals under Paul Martin were re-elected with a minority government.
Because if you thought his recent trip to the Arctic was bad. Or desperate...
The latest seat predictions are WORSE.
For if Lord Harp thought that those new electoral boundaries would save him, or act as a life preserver, he better get ready to swim all the way back to Alberta.
Elections Canada has reported that the new electoral boundaries that will be in effect for the next election would have delivered 188 seats to the Conservatives in 2011, 83 of them in Ontario. But on current trends in 2014, the Conservatives are on track to win just 48 seats in the province.
That loss of 35 seats alone is enough to reduce the Conservatives well below the mark needed to form another majority government. The party could win every seat it did in the last election outside Ontario – it could even increase that haul by 15 – and still fall short of a majority without an improvement in the country’s largest province.
Because when you take a close look at that latest EKOS poll again...
You can see that he's treading water, or trailing the Liberals and the NDP, everywhere but in Alberta and Saskatchewan.
And unless he's a really good swimmer, or Jesus can make him walk on water, he'll soon be swimming with the fishes.
Because he's not the Great Leader he once was.
Yup. You know I've got to be honest eh?
I'd rather sail than row...
And of course I can't predict the future.
But I what I would say is this:
Enjoy these last precious days of summer people.
Because the wind is in our sails.
The monster is going down.
And we're definitely heading for better days....
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