Thursday, August 14, 2014
Stephen Harper and the Shattering Impact of the EKOS Bomb
By now it should be obvious, if only by the bizarre way he has been behaving, and the way him and his Cons have been trying to smear Justin Trudeau, that Stephen Harper has never been so desperate.
And just one look at that much talked about EKOS poll must have given him the shakes, or had him climbing the wall.
Or riding the bomb.
With good reason...
Because with numbers like those he won't be Great Warrior Leader for much longer. He'll be Tiny Shrunken Leader looking for another job.
But although much of the discussion has centred on the suggestion that Canadians are returning to their centre-left roots.
What is even more striking, as Paul Adams points out, is the number of assumptions the poll shatters.
It isn’t just that the EKOS poll shows the Harper Conservatives at a mere 26 per cent in popular support, barely ahead of the NDP. The Conservatives could be headed for third place in Parliament, behind the NDP as well as the Liberals, according to this seat projection by Paul Barber, who is the best at what he does.
The projection, based on the EKOS poll, puts the NDP at 95 seats and leaves 86 for the Conservatives. (The Liberals, at 156, would win the election but fall well short of a majority.) In other words, the Conservatives may be closer to an Ignatieff-style implosion than they are to another majority government.
It's not just that the Cons are tanking, while the NDP is very much alive, and so is Tom Mulcair.
It's where those new Liberal votes are coming from, from the Conservative core itself.
Remember when the Conservative party had a lock on men and senior citizens? Remember when it made up for its losses among the university-educated with a big lead among voters who had attended community colleges? Remember when Harper’s party was breaking into into immigrant communities?
The Liberals are no longer clinging to their “gender gap”. In fact, they are even more popular among men these days than they are among women. They have an eight-point lead among those over 65 years of age. They are ahead of the other parties in every educational category, including the college-educated. And the Liberals have more supporters among immigrants than the two other major parties combined.
So much for Stephen Harper's hope to attract more men with his militaristic policies.
And his much vaunted, but never proven, hockey expertise...
And so much for Jason Kenney's desperate attempt to recruit the immigrant vote.
By storming the buffet table at every major ethnic banquet from St John's to Vancouver....
And then there's that other shock. The suggestion that the redistribution of seats isn't going to help the Cons as much as they had hoped.
A great deal has been made in recent years about how the redistribution of parliamentary seats was going to favour the Conservatives because many of the new seats were springing up in the suburban and Western areas they have dominated in the past few elections.
But guess what? When voters desert you, you also lose where you were previously strong. Paul Barber was kind enough to run a seat projection for me on the old boundaries, also based on the EKOS poll. Result: At these levels of support, redistribution makes practically no difference.
Which since the Cons were counting on those new seats to make up for losses in Ontario and BC, must be absolutely devastating, and must have left Lord Harp rolling on the floor, and biting the carpet.
But of course it is just a poll, and we shall have to wait for other polls to see if those numbers stand the test of time.
But if you look at the tracking polls, it's clear that the Cons have been trending downwards for over a year. ...
And what that tells me is that the real reasons for that so-called Conservative drift, is that Harper has been in power for too long, and most Canadians are simply sick of him, and are hungry for change, any kind of change.
And in that case NOTHING can save him.
He's overstayed his welcome.
The writing is on the wall.
And his nightmare rule is almost over...
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