Well there he was in Saskatchewan yesterday, looking as ghastly as I have ever seen him.
Announcing his plan to shrink the Senate by attrition.
Prime Minister Stephen Harper is vowing not to make any more Senate appointments, in an effort to distance himself from the scandal-plagued Red Chamber and to goad provinces into agreeing to reform or abolish the discredited legislative body.
But since I don't care what happens to the Senate, all I could think of was why is Stephen Harper looking so beaten?
When a new poll suggests that his sleazy plan to buy the election is working.
A new poll shows Prime Minister Stephen Harper and the Conservatives are by far the most popular choice for Canadian voters — just weeks before an expected election call and just as federal childcare cheques are being doled out.
The exclusive Mainstreet Research poll for Postmedia suggests Harper and the Tories received a sharp boost in popularity as a result of the enhanced universal childcare benefit.
It's a shocking result, and what makes it even more disturbing is that it's so different from this poll.
The federal New Democratic Party continues to hold the lead in public support, according to a new Forum Research poll conducted this week. The survey found the NDP ahead with 34 per cent support, while the Liberals and Conservatives were locked in a statistical tie at 29 per cent and 28 per cent respectively.
So I don't know what to think. Except to hope that the Forum poll, which is more in line with what other polls have recently shown, is right. And that the Mainstream Research poll is an outlier.
For I refuse to believe that so many Canadians could be bought so easily and so cheaply...
And are as corrupt as the sleazy hog who would buy their love, with OUR money.
But the good news is that even if the Mainstream poll is right, and all that dirty money has given the Cons a bounce, it won't last long.
Not when the Cons are dishing out the payola with one hand, and taking it away with the other...
Greg Perry/ Artizans.com
And not when more Canadians realize that he is bribing them with money he doesn't have...
Corrigan/Toronto Star
That there is no balanced budget and no surplus, just a growing deficit.
Finally realize that the oily policies of Harper and his incompetent Con regime are leading this country to economic disaster.
And that Great
Is it ethical to use firefighters as props in a political photo op, particularly at the same time as 460 hectares of forest are burning uncontained and a hill smoulders in the background?
And when those Canadians he would bribe realize that they've been conned like suckers. Or sold themselves and their country so cheaply.
And when the smell of that rancid porky mingles with the stench of corruption from the Senate he would slowly starve...
The flesh will start to fall off his bones and the bones of his corrupt government, and our polls will start to soar again.
Like my friends and I have been doing on the Pan Am games free zip line in our neighbourhood.....
Wheeeeee!!!
For some of us can't be bought. We would rather reach towards the sky, not grovel at some grubby trough. We are more and better than them.
The winds of change are still blowing in our favour, and we are still going to defeat them.
Hang on tightly, but dare to believe that better times are coming.
And have a great weekend everybody...
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41 comments:
Hi Simon. This poll is clearly an outlier, though voters are in general dumb enough to go back to the Cons despite Harper's depravity. As for the Senate moratorium, that is just silly since if one kept up that strategy the Senate would eventually lose quorum and then the Government couldn't pass anything.
Some polls are done by conservative pollsters. And I don't believe them. Like Mr. Harper's statement about the senate. If he won the election and wanted to do the opposite the next day he would, promise or not.... the man is a liar. I wrote in a comment thread that he should go to the fires and boost the morale of those who were homeless and thank the fire fighters but instead he staged one of his photo shoots with a big bunch of people who had other things to do standing behind him. It was, as usual, all about him.
Hi Simon: I am the Anon who commented on the conflict between Mainstreet and Forum polls yesterday and further remarked that it would be interesting to see what EKOS would show.
EKOS did not report this week (I just checked over at iPolitics which is where EKOS usually reports). However, let me make a bold prediction .... you can remind me if I am wrong. I think the Mainstreet is an outlier and Forum is more accurate. I say this because both EKOS and Forum had been in the field regularly but not Mainstreet (at least federally) so I trust both EKOS and Forum more as I can see the trend lines over the last few months. And the trend lines show a definite lead in NDP voting intentions.
Also, recall what had happened when Bill C-51 had just come out. We were told that 82% of Canadians supported it by Angus Reid, using the non random online panels methodology which theoretically is unsuitable for gauging true public response. Also, it was remarkable that AR and Globe&Mail had claimed this even though the data showed that 50% admitted they had very little idea what it was about. However, to Globe&Mail's credit, it made an editorial comment a few days later criticizing the validity of its own claims a few days earlier by pointing out exactly this point. Now we know, from EKOS and Forum polls, that as people learnt more about C-51, the majority are now opposed to it. BTW, I suspect the Libs were not smart enought to see through this and probably fell for the initial errorneous polls thinking that a majority supported C-51 and thus made their stupid mistake of supporting it. It, however, does not explain why Justin Trudeau has been trying to defend his support of C-51 even after he knows how bad it is and that the majority does oppose it. It also does not explain why every Lib MP had stood up in Parliament to vote for C-51.
Coming back to this week's Mainstreet poll, it is not a non random poll and thus should have been more believable, especially with its large sample size of around 5000. However, as I showed yesterday, a large sample size by itself does not necessarily guarantee a more accurate poll, using the example of Mainstreet's own outlier poll in the Alberta election (when compared to the Forum poll of around the same date, Apr. 21).
Besides, although voters are stupid, they are not so stupid that they will not realize that most of the increased amount in the UCCB will be taxed back. Thus, even if there is a temporary bump, and the Mainstreet poll was reflecting it, the bump will go away and be replaced with anger when some of these voters realize they had been misled into believing how much they were going to get for their increased UCCB payments.
I was disgusted, seeing that creep with a lineup of very unwilling-looking fire fighters behind him, as if they were his bought and paid for supporters..ugh...
But the looks on their faces said more than any of his oily comments..even our creepy Christy was barely able to pull off an insincere smile...and she supports the guy! Right now even she knows that he's politically toxic and doesn't want anyone publicly associating her with the Con downfall..she has scandals of her own to try and stifle..no guilt by association, right Christy...too late!
The Mainstreet poll looked strange until I saw that it was paid for by the Notional Press - PMO wannabees ? They tried to fool most of the people with a 1.37% margin of error but the 20% undecided who were ejected gave that a bit of a giggle.
At the same time, you would almost think coordinated, a confused columnist trumpeted a Harper plot to put barrels of gunpowder in the Senate basement. This breathless bluster was, of course untrue ; Harper made this promise a few elections ago. Lies then, lies now. You would almost think this was an order from out of the closet : fly that trial balloon. Many some of Pitiful Pete's political pork is hard at use.
Right on cue our own unemployed warroom warrior jumped in to declare these two non-stories meant the election was moot. Angry at being overlooked ( Butt kicked ? ) and unpaid by the Liberals he also took a silly little slap at a future CEO. What drama! Is the bloger whose name cannot be mentioned ( litigation thy name is ... ) now taking orders from the Puny Minds Organization ?
I don't trust the Mainstreet poll as it was done exclusively for PostMedia News.As David Climenhaga over at Rabble states.PMedia only reported the MStreet poll and inferred the rise for the cons was due to the check release.They reported nothing on the Forum Poll.
http://rabble.ca/blogs/bloggers/djclimenhaga/2015/07/two-polls-widely-different-results-and-postmedia-only-reports-on
Still with the MSM.What the hell is goin on over at the Toronto Star with the Paul Watson resignation?
This is a very interesting story.These pics of the harper's andJohn Geiger say it all..Geiger's wife is a Star editor..
http://canadalandshow.com/article/john-geiger-and-stephen-harper
Mainstreet Research :
"Among decided voters, Conservatives now lead with 38%, the NDP is second with 27%, and Liberals follow close behind at 25% with the Green Party at 6% and the Bloc at 4%. 20% of voters remain undecided.
Those Who Are Following UCCB More Likely to Vote Tory
“People with children under 18, eligible for the UCCB cheques that were received over the weekend and early part of the week have been following the UCCB cheque arrival closely, and have reacted very positively. 38% of eligible parents who followed very closely indicated they would vote Conservative, that number drops to 25% among those who indicated they had not followed the UCCB cheques at all. Among those who were not aware of the UCCB cheques, support for the Conservatives drops to 23%”, said Maggi."
Repeat : "Among those who were not aware of the UCCB cheques, support for the Conservatives drops to 23%, said Maggi"
So. The 38% stat only refers to people polled who either have already received cheques or are expecting them. Yet that stat is spun as if it was all voters, not just cheque recipients.
Amazing all the major media are running with the 38% stat.
Simon: Me again. :) Besides, it is half time in the Brazil-Panama game (soccer), so i went to look further into the Mainstreet poll from the source: http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/2015/07/24/conservative-christmas-in-july/
From the above link: "Those Who Are Following UCCB More Likely to Vote Tory
“People with children under 18, eligible for the UCCB cheques that were received over the weekend and early part of the week have been following the UCCB cheque arrival closely, and have reacted very positively. 38% of eligible parents who followed very closely indicated they would vote Conservative, that number drops to 25% among those who indicated they had not followed the UCCB cheques at all. Among those who were not aware of the UCCB cheques, support for the Conservatives drops to 23%”, said Maggi"
The paragraph quoted seems to say it all. This was NOT a poll surveying the response of all Canadians. The 38% Cons support came from eligible parents.The support for Cons drop drastically among non eligible parents. Thus this was likely a very misleading Postmedia report that failed to mention that the high Cons support, which contradicted other real random polls (e.g. Forum, EKOS), came from only eligible parents.
Once again, it suggests that we have to pay attention to the methodology and the details and not to treat all polls as the same, no? Would be interesting to see if Grenier at CBC will now be averaging this poll in the coming weeks and claim that Cons support has shot up. :)
Somebody should create a webpage that lists the names (and photos) of all "the boys in short pants" (aka the PMO)
http://ottawacitizen.com/news/conservative-government-refuses-to-say-how-many-in-pmo-earning-big-salaries
"By my count, there are 97 staff currently working in the Prime Minister’s Office, according to the government’s online phone book, far above even the most restrictive application of the small-cell size test."
http://geds-sage.gc.ca/en/GEDS?pgid=014&dn=ou%3DPMO-CPM%2C+o%3DGC%2C+c%3DCA
it doesn't matter what the polls say now, the election still hasn't been called.
although people are happy they got the money, there is enough information around, that they know it will be clawed back at tax time, so by the time that sinks in, people won't be that happy.
You gotta love the NDP for suggesting people send the cheques to them and Trudeau for saying he is sending his to charity. It might actually help at tax time because people will get tax receipts for sending the money.
steve does look terrible, the fires of hell right behind him.
The Senate, like it or not, is part of how our government works. What gives him the right to change it?
I've completed a post-graduate program in marketing research and I can say this is a very odd poll indeed. I'd have to see the questionnaire and methodology and even the data however ...
Mainstreet states that of the cohort of eligible parents 38% of those who paid close attention to the UCCB prefer the CPC. The rest of that cohort report lesser support, even as low as 25% for those who were paying no attention. This means for the overall cohort of eligible parents the actual support for the CPC falls somewhere between 38% and 25%.
What this means is that the respondents who are NOT eligible parents had to have reported something greater than 38% (probably something north of 40%) support for the CPC in order for the whole sample to average out to 38% overall. It seems quite unlikely that the CPC jumped about 10% among those who got nothing from the UCCB (singles, childless married, middle aged and seniors).
It's perfectly legitimate to sample the cohort of parents who stand to benefit from the UCCB *as long as you expicitly state that that was your research objective*. If indeed Mainstreet sampled only that segment and then extrapolated that to the overall population thats simple marketing research malpractice. Either that or this poll is an extreme outlier.
I've ordered via PayPal 100 STOP HARPER sticker (just for starters).
Hope everyone reading this does also. Saw my first Stop Harper sticker on the back of a car yesterday.
http://www.stopharperstickers.com/
http://www.stopharperstickers.com/how-do-i-order-sticker-packs--.html
"The standard bulk pack is $50 incl. shipping. For your $50 you will receive 50 of the 4"x4" Stop Harper stickers and 50 of the 12"x 3" Harper name bar overlays. We can ship pretty much anywhere in the country."
http://www.stopharperstickers.com/photo-gallery.html
Stephen Harper's '11th hour' Senate conversion (July 25/15)
http://www.cbc.ca/radio/thehouse/stephen-harper-s-11th-hour-senate-conversion-1.3162293
http://www.cbc.ca/radio/thehouse/stephen-harper-s-11th-hour-senate-conversion-1.3162293/uccb-cheques-useful-policy-or-pre-election-tactic-1.3162299
http://www.cbc.ca/radio/thehouse/stephen-harper-s-11th-hour-senate-conversion-1.3162293/forget-about-balancing-the-books-pbo-forecasts-deficit-1.3163638
http://www.cbc.ca/radio/thehouse/stephen-harper-s-11th-hour-senate-conversion-1.3162293/in-house-panel-mid-summer-messaging-1.3162306
All I have to say about the Mainstreet Poll and Postmedia is this...
https://prezi.com/8zap67vqchv5/copy-of-capp-postmedia-board-presentation-highlights/
Pierre Poilievre insists Government of Canada logo was always like that
http://www.thebeaverton.com/national/national-in-brief/item/1977-pierre-poilievre-insists-government-of-canada-logo-was-always-like-that
http://www.thebeaverton.com/national-news
http://albertapolitics.ca/2015/07/two-polls-widely-different-results-and-postmedia-only-reports-one-what-gives-i-wonder/
Perhaps mizdarlin that is why a lot of Canadians who will not be voting for the NDP when your bashing Christy Clark who is leader of the Liberal Party in BC. I happen to live in BC and under her leadership BC has prospered.Common now Creepy Christy? A tad immature MisD ? Which is not unusual some of your people even call her crusty Clark. That's immature and it doesn't help your causes one bit. Irene
Hi Kirby....yes there is something wrong with this poll. The question I have is whether the poll itself is flawed or whether Postmedia has distorted its findings. As for the Senate you are right too, Harper can't shrink the Senate because it's part of our Parliament and it would bring everything to a halt. The man is desperate and it's just another scam....
hi anon...yes I'm afraid you might be right. One has to question whether any polls published by a Con outlet like Postmedia is science or propaganda. As for Harper on the fire lines, yes for him everything is a photo op, and it is all about him...
hi anon...thanks for your excellent work in wading through the fine print, as I should have done myself if I hadn't been too tired. Summer is exhausting ;) But yes, it seems that Postmedia has distorted the poll's findings, and there is less than meets the eye. Grenier has already factored in this poll and now has the Cons tied with the NDP. Let's hope other polls prove the Mainstream poll to be an aberration, and that sanity prevails....
hi mizdarlin....yes wasn't that outrageous? I wonder how long those firefighters had to line up behind him while the woods burned. But you have to admit it does make a great metaphor for the state our country is in... ;)
hi anon 11:08...since from what I know about BC politics Christy Clark is more Con than Liberals, Crusty sounds fine to me...
hi rumleyfips....yes Postmedia is making it pretty clear these days which government it is supporting. John Ivison now seems to be working full time for the PMO. And yes I noticed the war room warrior seems to think that pathetic senate gambit is something significant. And needless to say I don't agree. I don't think he';s taking orders from the PMO, I think he's just so bitter about the way he was treated by the Trudeau Liberals that it has clouded his judgement....
hi anon....yes I saw David's post and he's right, it was rather strange that they did not mention the Forum poll when it was so different from their own. But I think we can see that comparing the two polls could be like comparing apples and oranges so we will have to wait for other polls to try to figure out if that Con bounce is real or a mirage. As for the Paul Watson story, I have done a lot of research on it, but am awaiting Watson's story before I write anything about it myself....
hi Alison...thanks for this. As I told another commenter I should have read the fine print, and Postmedia does seem to have distorted that poll's findings. And you're right, it is rather disturbing that all the other media, including the very respectable Eric Grenier, are taking it at face value. Let's hope the situation can be corrected soon. Although, as I pointed out in my post, even if that bounce was generalized I can't believe it will last long....
hi David...I have tried to do that in the past, but there are a lot of new names that I don't recognize and can't find anything about, not even a picture. But I do hope one day their mugshots are all prominently featured as they prepare to answer for what they have done....
hi e.a.f....yes I think you're right, most Canadians are disengaged from the political process, so we will have to wait until the campaign officially begins, and the BBQ season fades, before we can get a more reliable fix on the situation....
hi Hugh...he's just playing politics as usual and positioning himself to try to avoid the damage of the Duffy trial. As Kirby pointed out, if the Senate was allowed to lose its quorum the work of parliament would grind to a halt, and we would have a constitutional crisis on our hands. The sooner we get rid of that dangerous maniac the better...
hi anon....thanks for your comment. I must say I'm fortunate to have such great readers who take the time to more closely examine that poll's results. I too find it hard to believe that such relatively small payment for a relatively small group of Canadians could trigger such a big jump in the polls. We'll have to wait and see what other polls say, But for now I'm blaming Postmedia for distorting the results....
hi anon...I do hope that once the campaign starts we can see Stop Harper signs and stickers sprouting all over the country. For nothing can better sum up what the next election should be all about....
hi anon...thanks for reminding me about that story, I remember it well. And I think we say that the writing was literally on the wall...
hi David..thanks for the links. I honestly can't believe that Harper can get away with this latest obvious scam. It's so bloody obvious. And I can only think that the Cons are desperate and making it up as they go along....
hi David...thanks for that, and it couldn't be more true. Although the good news is that Poilievre has abruptly stopped flogging the child care payments in the outrageous manner he has been doing for weeks. So I have to believe that the Cons have realized he was doing more damage than good...
ho Kirby...thanks for that. I've read the story and it's one more reason to question that poll, an what Postmedia is trying to make of it....
No apologies are necessary. You have already done an outstanding job with your articles. It is up to the rest of your readers to help with due diligence. Together we will be stronger and more able to seek the truth, eh? Have fun always.
I rather thought that Harper's Senate announcement mean it was party time for the NDP. Stevie sounded like a 10 year old saying, “It's my ball. If you don't play the way I want, I'm taking it and going home”.
The NDP can get Harper coming and going. “Well given Harper's distinguished record on Senate appointments (cue Wallin,Duffy, etc.) it's little wonder he doesn't want to make any more Senate appointments” vs “We want to abolish the Senate, we've been saying this for years but until the Senate is gone the Prime Minister by refusing to recommend new appointments is violating the constitution. He seems to be deliberately trying to paralyse government”>
Come to think of it, is there any constitutional reason for the PM recommending Senate appointments? It's a Governor-General in Council appointment is it not? Perhaps one could round up enough PCs to do it without Harper or even any of his Cabinet?
Me again. I did find a link to the findings and it was little to no help. They do provide some data on pages 22 and 23 regarding how closely people were following the UCCB issue but nothing to support their claim that the UCCB produced a bump for the CPC. The whole report is a bit of a dogs breakfast. I'm undecided if its misleading or just sloppy work.
The folks at pressprogress.ca do excellent research and I will suggest to them to create such a webpage in time for the resumption of the Duffy trial.
Anon at 11:08 glad I didn't have breakfast before reading your post about our stunningly incompetent premier and her insatiable need to be in front of the camera. BC has not prospered under her leadership, with a ballooning debt and stubborn unemployment, the only ones who prosper are her party's donors. Make no mistake, the BC liberals are anything but.
anything from Bell Media, Post Media, Quebcor is all Conservative spin and propaganda
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