Friday, January 16, 2015

Stephen Harper and My Horrible Majority Nightmare

It was a horrible nightmare. There was Stephen Harper in the musty basement of his House of Pain.

Chained to a chair by the young fanatics running the PMO, to prevent their beloved master from blowing apart at the seams, under the weight of all that bad economic news.

Or stumbling out into the street in the middle of the night, dressed only in his pyjamas, screaming: "I'm STILL a Great Economist Leader. And I'm not CRAZY !!#@!!

But then just as I'm thinking oh goody, at least he's restrained. And all that bad news will surely finish him off.

He cast off his chains, and came staggering towards me screaming "Come back here you commie rat, and gimme my juicy MAJORITY. !#@!! 

The tie is broken: Stephen Harper’s Conservatives have pulled out in front of the Liberals — and they could be sitting on the cusp of majority territory, according to the most recent Ipsos Reid poll conducted exclusively for Global News.

And although for a moment I was paralyzed by this horrible sight...

Or the thought that so many Canadians could be THAT dumb.

Although a four-point lead may not look like much, it could be enough for a majority when taking into consideration the 30 additional seats in the mix for 2015, said John Wright, senior vice president at Ipsos Reid.

When I woke up I realized that it was only an Ipsos Reid poll, and that it was taken between five and ten days ago.

Before Oily Joe Oliver prorogued the budget.

Or pushed the panic button. 

Cue the alarm bells. Delaying a budget is not business as usual. There’s a reason it’s making headlines — not only at home but on the Wall Street Journal website: It’s the kind of signal a government doesn’t want to send to international markets unless it’s forced to. 

It telegraphs trouble — serious trouble. This is not about gathering information. This is about waiting out the storm — and hoping desperately that things change between now and then.

Risked making the situation even worse, to try to make the Cons look better.  

By playing a grubby shell game.

Don’t worry about the fact the Conservatives essentially spent the surplus they had last autumn and have pushed the next federal budget into the new fiscal year. The new Conservative math is political math. There’s another name for it. It’s a shell game.

Finance Minister Joe Oliver appears ready to arbitrarily set a future oil price — one that neither he nor Prime Minister Stephen Harper can predict — that will allow him to proceed with voter-friendly promises in an election year.

So the Cons can buy votes with money they might never have...

And the good news is that I don't think Stephen Harper and his ghastly Con artists will be able to get away with it this time. 

He will claim that only he can protect us from the mess he made of the economy. But most Canadians won't buy that.

They will see that the Cons are obviously panicking, that they didn't see it coming, that they're making it up as they go along. And it won't be long before Harper's polls start to tank.

Especially if the opposition hammers home the message that he put too many eggs in one oily basket. 

Gambled our future and his on the glory of Albertonia. And lost.

Just like his good friend Putin...

Yup. He put all his chips on the tarry pits. 

He lost his shirt, and his pants.

He didn't know what he was doing.

And now he's going to PAY for it...

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lungta said...

there is harpers' game
which we know really well
then there's the new liberal non co-operation game
which we know will split the vote
and is harpers' greatest asset
red minus orange = blue

Steve said...

Polls are tools. Ipsos Reid is a Conservative pollstor. Until the vote gets close polls are just manipulation devices. If Harpo needs cash its a low poll. If he is feeling insecure its a high poll.

Askingtherightquestions said...

So right Simon. The shell game will however, become much more dangerous now - Only Harper and Oliver know how much cutting and gutting of Canada they have done!!

Question to CPC supporters -how much are YOU willing to pay for healthcare?

rumleyfips said...

At first this poll looked like an outlier. Reading through the story, however , suggests an attempt to help the reformacons with cynical spin.

While the con activists undercover in our third string press organization triumphantly declared victory, they ignored the margin of error. In fact, this poll is as likely to be a tie as the result they published. They also buried the methodology, reluctant ( with cause) to hide the fact that this was not a random poll but a self selected group . No attempt was made to produce a bias free document.

If I was more skeptical I would think that internal con polling looks scary and they demanded something, anything, to hide the fact.

Scotian said...

I don't trust polls until I see an extended trend pattern, which takes multiple polls over a decent period of time, and even then I keep a certain degree of wariness. This given all the CPC has been putting into trying to turn the trends around and given all the aid the international scene and domestic terrorism scene (their preferred playground these days) have been for Harper and the CPC this minimal a shift does not bode well. I would have expected a much sharper shift than this given all factors/variables involved. Now, I'm not saying to relax, but then I won't say that until after the election day that sees the Harper CPC thrown out of power, but so far I am not getting the sense that the underlying dynamics have really changed into Harper's favour. I believe Nanos had a different result as well, which also underscores my point about not seeing a true shift happening, at least not to this point.

Anonymous said...

Harper also lied regarding, his being requested to play a role in the war with ISIS. Obama said he did no such thing. Harper forced his way into the war, to try and redeem himself. Harper is a pariah that no-one wants, he was an abysmal failure in Wales.

However, we know Harper will cheat to win this election, as he cheated to win the last election with his robo-call election fraud. That investigation people want re-opened. Harper is despised for treating our Veterans as dirt under his feet. He is loathed for his, FIPPA deal with China.

Anyone supporting Harper has no self respect, honesty nor ethics. Harper hates Canada and is doing everything he can to destroy our Nation.

e.a.f. said...

But are the poll results accurate? Are they unbiased? Who knows.

Given the cons habit of including things in the budget, that never used to be included in a budget, it maybe that the cons have something else up their sleeve. they maybe postponing the budget because there is going to be something in there that they want to take to an election and my money says, it will have something to do with "security" as in a deterioration of democracy, our health care system, or something to do with First Nations lands. No, it isn't about whatever is going on currently with the lack of "income" for the Canadian treasury. its something else.

Anonymous said...

The only people these days answering their land lines are older people and thats if they answer. Todays voters and most younger adults only have cell phones due to cost to have both. you know, speak to a lot of people because of my job....... kind of say like in the "trenches" and I"ve never seen so much hate towards asshole Harper con regime. Regardless of what right wing Ipsos Reid poll said, shit head is done.

Grant G said...

Ipsos Reid failed in their polls, They blew up in Quebec, way off in Alberta, out to lunch in BC and a mile off in Ontario..Wildrose lost badly in Alberta..Hudak was pilloried in Ontario...These online panel polls are very suspect, those who participate are political junkies, internet savvy polical junkies, ...The problem being..Ipsos Reid has literally 10,s of thousands of panelists to choose from, their data base already knows what each panelists preferences are..

Macleans magazine had a very interesting article on online panel polling and why it isn`t accurate.

Here are more links proving Ipsos Reid`s failures.,%20doc,%20docx,%20jpg,%20png,%20xls,%20xlsx/130515_TheTyee_For%20Pollsters%20an%20Alberta-sized%20Mess.pdf

Also, the Ipsos Reid poll you reference in this article, 1915 online panelists..Very strange, the largest sample size was from Alberta, 549 samples from Alberta...Ontario had a sample of 452 decided voters, Quebec had a sample of 203.....Ipsos Reid, a Toronto based polling outfit and the largest sample by far was from the 4th most populous province.....Also, there was no methodology released with their poll, and it was also conducted in the midst of the Paris shootings.



the salamander said...

.. the CTV article I read failed to mention any context or questions involved in their exclusive Ipsos poll.
What kind of journalism is that..? The poll was with committed voters.. and Grant G defines the sample numbers and provinces. Love the headline.. 'the tie is broken' .. fun stuff with horsies.. and all that.
The implication is that those 'sampled' have already made up their mind, regardless of current issues..
Gee, wonder what party those types support and always vote for..
My fear has grown that these kind of polls are just another vote suppression tool
and replacing solid journalistic perspective with lazy betting lines - Vegas style political pablum

Simon said...

hi lungta...I have encouraged progressives to unite since I started blogging. It seems obvious to me, but clearly I am not a very good matchmaker. But nothing will ever change the fact that until we do unite, the Cons will always be more of a threat than they should be. I can only hope that we can avoid splitting the vote in the next election, because if we don't, and Harper wins, we will regret it forever, and it will be our fault...

Simon said...

hi Steve....I did say I was sceptical, and I did write the post the way I did for a reason. I am anxiously awaiting other polls to see what they say. But I also said I am hopeful that the oily apocalypse will finally convince Canadians that he doesn't know what he is doing and is no Great Economist Leader...

Simon said...

hi askingtherightquestions...well you certainly live up to your name, because that is a very good question. Far too many people in this country want first-class services, but don't want to pay for them The Cons have brainwashed people into thinking that taxes are bad, when they are the difference between civilization and a jungle...

Simon said...

hi rumleyfips...I hope you are right, and the last EKOS poll did seem to suggest that Harper's steady climb in the polls had finally been arrested. And as I said in my post, a lot of things happened since the poll was taken, so hopefully it is out of date or an outlier...

Simon said...

hi're right, we do have to be sceptical of all polls these days. And although the trend has favoured the Cons since the terrorist scare began, the last EKOS poll did seem to suggest it was running out of steam. So I am hopeful that once the terrorist scare fades again, and his role in the shaky state of the economy becomes more apparent, his support will go south again. The question I have is whether he will go for an early election, while he's still in contention, and the economic situation deteriorates...

Simon said...

hi anon...Harper and his ghastly Cons have damaged our nation and its values, but at least this year will be the year we finally get a chance to get rid of him...

Simon said...

hi e.a.f....I have no idea whether this poll is accurate or not, but the fact that the Cons have delayed the budget tells me that they are panicking and that's always good. I am also a bit concerned by the postponing of the Three Amigos Summit, because it might be a sign that the Cons are preparing a February surprise. As I wrote recently, I am not a paranoid person, but paranoia in this monstrous Harperland can sometimes be a higher state of consciousness...

Simon said...

hi anon....that's my impression too. I've never known a Canadian politician who is more despised than our would be dictator. So I'm confident that will result in a higher turnout. And if that happens we WILL defeat them....

Simon said...

hi Grant...nice job. I didn't have the time or the energy to look up the methodology, but as you point out it does seem questionable. And Ipsos Reid's record isn't exactly exemplary. I did my best to reassure my readers by having a bit of fun with it off the top. But your excellent comment will make a lot of them feel a whole lot better. Thank you...

e.a.f. said...

just because you're paranoid, doesn't mean it isn't happening to you.

Grant G said...

You should enjoy this....Sunnews, Ezra Levant and Brian Lilly etc etc etc....Sunnews online, their web page, they have a question of the day, I vote in them, the results are always skewed towards the hard-right, as in a rightwing I hate Trudeau crowd....On average there are about 2000 votes per day on each question, month in, month out, that has been the average(give or take a little bit)...Yet..This week there were a couple of outliers...One question had about 10,000 votes, and astonishingly one question had 50,000 votes, 25 times the norm, ....The answer to the question went almost 50/50...That again is another outlier, I have cut n pasted the results from this week, you can see for yourself.(see below)


Current poll

The federal government has postponed the budget until April. Do you care?







Do you believe the federal government will still be able to balance the budget despite low oil prices?







How should Alberta deal with the revenue lost from low oil prices?

Raise taxes


Borrow more


Cut spending




Would you buy a copy of the upcoming issue of Charlie Hebdo?







Do Canadian police and security agencies need increased powers to investigate jihadist terror threats?







Do you agree with an Ottawa-based Imam who believes satirical cartoons of religious leaders should be illegal?







Do you think Islam is a violent religion?









Do you agree with Prime Minister Stephen Harper that Canada must confront jihadi terrorism?







Simon and company...Online surveys, how could Sunnews suddenly have that many votes cast....? It`s called clearing your cookies and voting again and again(Internet savvy people would know what I`m talking about...

We had a provincial election in 2009..Wally Oppal was was running in South Delta, Gordon Campbell parachuted him into that riding..Delta now, a local paper, their online poll question, will you vote for Vicky Huntington or Wally Oppal...Normally this little daily paper got about 100 to 200 votes on their questions...This particular poll question went received over 25,000 votes, it see-sawed back n forth..I don`t remember who the question finally favoured, Vicki Huntington did win the riding in the subsequent election...The Delta Times daily paper ran an article a few days after that poll question was inserted...I remember as clear as day...

The article was titled.."Please Don`t Hijack Our Daily Poll"...The article explained in more detail what happened(more detailed than my explanation)

It was all manipulated by political party operatives from both sides, clearing their cache, clearing their cookies, allowing the same computer to vote over and over again, all day long the same computer voting on the same question, roughly voting twice per minute per computer...Clearly, as evidenced above...That Sunnews poll question with 50,000 votes was obviously being manipulated by both sides, in the same manner....Sunnews doesn`t have that many TV viewers nationwide, let alone online readers..

Polls are for dogs....For peeing on them..


lungta said...

well simon you have had enough nightmares
try this on as a dream
breaking news
following the governments call for the election
press releases were simultaneously issued from green, ndp and liberal campaign headquarters
apparently in secrecy since late 2014 the parties have been working
on a roster of single opposing candidates to take on the on one
"we had to do it" or "lose canada forever" even tho we had to set our egos aside
the campaign motto will be
"canada for canadians....inclusive not exclusive"
there has been no response from the harper government
....if this doesn't happen it will not be our fault
it is 100% justins' decision

Scotian said...

Something I think some misunderstand, the reason we see Harper gaining in the wake of terrorist attacks, especially when they happen here, is not because suddenly he is seen to be the best, but it is more likely simply showing solidarity with our government and he happens to be the officeholder. So I've always suspected that the bump was a bit of a false positive. Now that he delayed the budget I am thinking it is more likely we are having a Fall election, but with Harper never take anything for granted. Still though, given that their tax breaks were clearly part of what they planned to use to get votes this time out, especially the income splitting being in the pockets of people by the election, delaying for a couple of months is a serious sign. Besides without a budget for this year it invites major economic mismanagement attacks from all quarters should he call an election prior to a budget, and leaves him so little "positive" to campaign on since he has so little constructive/creative works to point to since becoming PM.

David said...

Simon, my suggestion is to stay away from publicizing ANY polls.

David said...

Meet the real Stephen Harper

Simon said...

hi Grant...OK now you've outdone yourself. Brilliant. The Cons in the PMO must be working overtime, and wearing their little fingers, or claws, down to the bone. I have heard some encouraging rumours about their sad state of mind. As well as reports that Great Leader himself is battling another bout of depression. And though I wouldn't normally wish that on anyone, even a Con. In his case I'll make an exception... ;)

Simon said...

hi salamander...yes there is something fishy about that poll, and Grant did a brilliant job of exposing their dubious methodology. Soon they will be only polling in Alberta and claiming it's Canada !!! And you're right, the Cons are desperate to suppress the vote, and one of the ways to do that is to make us feel that the struggle is hopeless. Good luck with that one....