Sunday, January 04, 2015

Is Stephen Harper Planning a March Election?

In his scary year-end interview Stephen Harper claimed, from under six coats of pancake makeup, that he had no plans to call an early election.

But he wouldn't rule one out, as I'm sure you remember...

But if he is still planning for an election in October, why is he running campaign-style radio ads in JANUARY?

In which he personally claims that the Liberals and the NDP would rollback the porky payments he is giving families with children under 18.

And is he secretly planning, as Michael Warren suggests, a March election? 

Stephen Harper says he has no plans to call an early election. Despite these assurances, I predict he will call an election for late March.

He will be criticized for taking Canadians to the polls early. But that criticism will soon dissipate as the battle for the electorate’s hearts and minds moves into full gear. Next year is full of political pitfalls for the Conservatives. Facing the nation early has its advantages.

To back-up his prediction Warren cites the usual list of reasons: The bigger war chest the Cons presently enjoy, the sagging state of the economy, and the question of timing.

Timing is everything in politics. Even popular initiatives can become stale quickly. The Conservatives’ $3-billion “family tax cut” package can only be announced so many times before voters start saying, “What have you done for me lately?” 

Despite the dramatic drop in oil prices and the impact on federal revenues, the Tories will still be able to boast about achieving their goal of a balanced budget early next year. But if oil prices don’t rebound and the economy stalls, Ottawa’s books won’t look so good by October.

As well as the usual list of suspects: Brazeau, Duffy, and maybe even Wallin...

Then there is Wallin. Last November the RCMP alleged she committed fraud and breach of trust by submitting improper expense claims. She has since repaid the full amount. But there is still a chance she will be charged. If she does, her trial will be a fall media circus.

And since we know that Harper would do anything to avoid that, and that Great Economist Buffoon Leader and his hapless stooge Joe Oliver are in a race against time. 

“Oil is likely to hit hard,” said Charles St-Arnaud, a London-based economist with Nomura Securities, who also previously worked at the Finance Department and the Bank of Canada in Ottawa. “The budget for 2015-16 could well see a deterioration in the fiscal balance. So he [Mr. Harper] could be tempted to call an election before that,” he said.

And that Great Strong Closet Leader will soon have to decide whether to continue the air war in Iraq.

Harper is committed to re-assessing the air combat mission by February. This allows him time to judge how the war is progressing, whether other coalition members are considering committing ground troops and how Canadians feel about the war. If broad public support remains, Harper could make a measured expansion of the war against ISIS a major March election issue.

I can't help but wonder whether he will use the war as an excuse to call an early election. You know, in the name of national security, to send a message to the terrorists who would behead us in our beds.

And then broaden his appeal with this double barrelled approach...

And all I can say is that we have to assume the worst. We have to be ready for everything. Because our depraved would be dictator is capable of ANYTHING.

And the sooner we can get this movement up and moving or marching the better...

It may be too late to try to create a formal umbrella organization.  But at least we can ask all the progressive groups out there to try to agree to a short list or Charter of Canadian Principles and Values.

Agree that the next election is above all a battle to take back OUR Canada.

And hopefully agree that this should be our sign or slogan...

Because it's out there, it has a history, it's a symbol of resistance, it's easy to make. And getting rid of our would be dictator and his foul regime is our most sacred mission.

I'll try to come up with my suggestion for a Charter of Canadian Principles and Values in the next few days. And I encourage you to come up with your own.

But since it's the weekend, and it's important to keep our spirits up even in the face of great danger. I thought I'd leave you with a video my friend and research ace David sent me.

It's a spoof of Downton Abbey AND a spoof of that classic scene in the movie The Producers...

In which the cast performed a wild and hilarious version of a song called Springtime for Hitler.

And all I could say after watching this Canadian version is, let's hope that this Spring we won't be singing this song...

Yup. We better be ready.

Because he is capable of anything. 

He is crazy. He is dangerous.

And he would be our dictator...

Please click here to recommend this post at Progressive Bloggers. 


  1. Anonymous7:24 AM

    Agreed that we need a 'Big Tent' progressive banner to run under to defeat Harper. It's the only realistic way we'll get rid of him.
    However, how about this: we push all candidates to sign a pledge or commitment to introduce, as their first act of Parliament, an act of Proportional Representation or Mixed Member Representation (MMR), with a condition that if they don't they must resign their seat within a set period? I will vote for any non-Conservative candidate so long as I know they will stick to this and I can vote strategically with confidence.
    If that doesn't happen, then me and you Simon, we'll start the Canadian Party, committed to Canadians and Canadian values!! 2019 or bust!

    1. Anonymous5:03 AM

      The country won't exist in even its transmogrified current form by 2019. It will be considered treason to vote for other than a con by then and you/we will be imprisoned for that offense. If the cons aren't defeated this time they never will be. It will be an overt dictatorship for a long time to come and, after all, the cons have already alluded to that ideal a hell of a lot of times. 40 year term, from what I can remember, was the number they like to use. It's now or never.

    2. hi anon...yes, we need a big progressive tent, because if it is a life and death struggle for the future of this country it can't be reduced to a mere electoral contest. And yes I would support proportional representation, if we can get our politicians to agree. And you and I won't have to start a Canadian Party. Because if the progressive parties fail to win the next election it will be the end of all of them, and we will have a a united party at last...

    3. hi anon you, I also don't think Canada can take another Con government. And I certainly couldn't. We must impress on everybody that this is our last chance to save our Canada and its values. And that as you say, it is now or never...

  2. Let's get rid of his stupid fixed election date law as soon as he's defeated. What a waste of time.

    Here's something, RIGHT NOW - any charities, unions, or any other targeted group, being asked by CRA to show their accounts, should ignore them.

    CRA has allowed itself to become a tool of the government, attacking its enemies.

    Shit, ... people opposed to harper should just stop paying their taxes! he doesn't respect Parliament, we don't respect his pretenses to authority over us.

    1. hi thwap...I agree, the law is useless. Two strikes is bad enough, but a third one and you're out. As for the CRA, one of the first things a progressive government must do is begin a complete investigation. And those who have collaborated with the Cons in such an obvious manner must be held accountable. It's bad enough that the Cons have made taxes a bad word, but politicizing government departments only undermines people's faith in government, and leaves us open to the games of fascists...

  3. No Simon I do not think helmet head is going to have an Election because he is power hungry and want's to steal....

    1. hi mogs...He may or he may not have an early election. But the important thing to remember is that it would suit his purposes, he can't be trusted as far as you can spit, so we must be ready...

  4. No it won't be an earily election, to do so would be to throw away the advantage created by thier wealth. An early election means no more taking advantage of government advertizing, and only being allowed to spend as much as the Libs and NDP when during the preelection period they can out spend both the NDP and Libs combined.

    1. hi's true that the longer they wait, the more ads they can bombard us with without being limited by election campaign spending limits. But on the other hand, since they have a fundraising advantage now, the more they wait, the more money the Liberals and the NDP will be be able to raise, and use against them...

  5. Click on "Listen"

    Author Michael Harris argues Stephen Harper is 'profoundly anti-democratic'

  6. Michael Harris at Unifor Ontario Regional Council, November 2014

    Harper Watch – December 17 to 31, 2014

    1. hi David...thanks for that. I finally got Harris's book after I discovered it was cheaper than I had imagined. And I intend to quote it extensively all the way to the next election....

    2. Once "Party of One" goes into paperback, if I can get a good deal with the publisher, I plan to purchase hundreds of copies to give away. The opposition parties could collectively buy hundreds of thousands/if not millions of copies in paperback at even a better rate from the publisher.

      Better still, I'm hoping the entire book will be put online for free, about a month before the election.

      One chapter is already online:

      Delay, deny and die: The Harper government and veterans
      by Michael Harris

  7. Wendy K7:34 AM

    Hi Simon,

    So pleased to hear you bought Michael Harris' book at a good price. Well worth the read, but be of it may make your blood pressure boil. Again I say, this book should be a must read for all Canadians of voting age. Yeah, like that's going to happen. Sad but true.

    Look forward to your quotes from the book in the coming months.

    All the best.

  8. e.a.f.7:27 PM

    it might be an early election, like one before the Duffy trial, before the lay offs start in Alberta, before the food bank line ups get too long in B.C. On the other hand, if he thinks he might loose in an early election, better to stay to the end, and be in a better position to pull off any "antics' as they did in the last election.

    If interest rates go up, as an article on CBC suggested, there will be a lot of unhappy people in Canada and a lot of foreclosures. Better to be re elected prior to that happening, because I am still not convinced he will loose the next election. I hope he does, but I'm not sure if he will. the opposition to him is still too fractured.

  9. Noticed that the Fantino demotion was the lead story on the Jan. 5 CTV National News. But it wasn't discussed on CBC's The National until the 7 minute mark.