Friday, September 21, 2018

The Abacus Poll and the Incredible Shrinking Cons

Andrew Scheer was absent from Question Period yesterday, and nobody seemed to know where he was.

But I wouldn't be surprised if he was huddled with his ex-Rebel campaign manager Hamish Marshall trying to figure out what's going wrong.

Because so much is going wrong.

A series of devastating polls, have suggested the Cons are heading for a crushing defeat in the next election.

And a new Abacus poll can only make them feel worse.

For while it shows a slightly smaller gap between the Liberals and the Cons than other polls have, it is in other ways just as devastating for the Harper Party.

Starting with the fact that unlike 2015, it's still a two-party race. 

So unless the NDP can dramatically boost its numbers, it will not split the progressive vote, which the Cons depend on if they are going to have any chance of winning.

And then there are the results in British Columbia where the Liberals are surging...

Despite the controversy over the Kinder Morgan pipeline.

And perhaps even more surprising, also surging in Ontario...

Where the arrival of Doug Ford seems to be really hurting the Cons.

Which if I can be excused for blowing my tiny trumpet, I correctly predicted...

And remember, this is before Maxime Bernier's new party starts gnawing away at Con support, especially in Quebec where the Liberals already have a massive lead.

And if you put it all together this is what it means: 

“The competitive national race between the Liberals and Conservatives overlooks a tougher provincial landscape for the Conservatives. With large leads in Quebec, Ontario, BC, and Atlantic Canada, the Liberals would likely win another majority government if an election was held today.

Despite a fairly turbulent summer involving the Trans Mountain pipeline, border crossings, and NAFTA negotiations, support for the Liberals has held steady nationally and appears to have rebounded in Ontario after the provincial election. More people like Prime Minister Trudeau than dislike him and the government’s approval rating has held steady since March.

So while we can't become complacent, and must attack the Cons harder than ever. 

And kick them when they're down until we're sure they no longer threaten this country and its values.

Scheer and his Cons are slowly shrinking...

And the universe is unfolding just as I thought it would...


  1. Anonymous5:07 PM

    As much as I think Scheer is unfit for office, it’s even more ironic and amusing reading comments from a crew of hate filled and angry Liberals claiming to fight for a better world. Too bad the only MP in the House of Commons with any amount of integrity- Elizabeth May - doesn’t enjoy more support.

    1. Jackie Blue6:43 PM

      Hate-filled Liberals? You must be the Canadian equivalent of one of those #WalkAway trolls trying to divide the left-liberal electorate in the U.S. Funny, I don't see anyone on Trudeau's side calling for Scheer to be shot or making bigoted or sexist comments about him, his family and his cabinet members. Who keeps making vulgar cracks on social media about Margaret and Sophie? Who keeps trying to associate Muslim MPs with ISIS? Who keeps up all the disgusting and vile cyberbullying of Xavier, Ella-Grace and little Hadrien? Who floods social media threads about the Trudeau children with allegations that he's a pedophile? It sure isn't the Tru Grits self-harming, that's for sure!

      If Scheer is associated with Nazis, that's his own damn fault for, oh, I dunno, taking selfies with La Meute members, hiring Rebel Media and Reddit trolls as his PR team, and rushing to the defense of Grandma Loco Lobo who basically called Justin himself a mudblood. Or shitposting memes about skeery black men with mysterious suitcases crashing the borders. As for angry, um, I'd say we have the right to be angry about that -- it's called righteous anger, directed at the venom and cruelty coming entirely from the side of the Cons.

      I don't know much about Elizabeth May, but from what I understand she's a good and decent person. But what makes you think Justin Trudeau or his supporters aren't? News flash: Calling Andy Doody a "puppet" is nowhere near the same thing as Cons calling Justin any number of homophobic and transphobic slurs ("fairy prince," "Justine," and "flaming Christmas fruitcake" are just some of the printable ones I've seen). Just like making fun of Donald Trump being fake orange is nowhere near the same as virulent hatred of Barack Obama for presidenting while black.

      Learn the lingo: "Punching up" and "punching down." Back to remedial fight school with you.

    2. Hi anon@5:07 PM...don’t be absurd, the Cons are the hate mongers of the world, and if you don’t know that you must be one. Progressives do hate things like racism,misogyny, homophobia, etc etc. Scheer and his Cons spew hatred out of every sweaty orifice every day of the year, while Trudeau and his Liberals never stoop to their level. If you can’t see that you must be blind...

    3. Hi Jackie...well said. I didn’t,t have the energy to give that obvious Con troll any examples. There are so many I wouldn’t know where to start. So thank goodness we have you...😺

  2. Jackie Blue5:22 PM

    The "because it's 1812" factor can't be underestimated either. The U.S.-imposed NAFTA deadline of October 1 is probably going to come and go. Polls already indicate that far more Canadians would blame the orange idiot and his goons than Trudeau and his team if the talks outright collapse once and for all, which it looks like they will. Freeland truly exemplifies "standing on guard for thee," and knows that it's the Republicans who overplayed their hand and are are in a rush to score a "win" before the midterms all but wipe them out. "In the clearing stands a boxer and a fighter by his trade" -- and Freeland has proven just as adept at playing rope-a-dope with the Great Orange Nope as PM Hockey Balboa. "Yo! Hadrien!"

    Benedict Scheer, meanwhile, looks like a backstabbing Quisling, whose ego-driven hatred of Trudeau has blinded him to the more noble cause of defending the country against the compromised Russiamerican menace. Trump has a whopping 9% approval rating in Canada, according to a new Abacus poll reported recently by Daniel Dale of the Toronto Star. Anything outside of negative numbers is actually surprisingly high, until you realize that there is a nonzero cohort of idiots who feel the same way as the Saskatcheweenian Candidate and would vote for Jeffrey Dahmer if there was no one on the ballot besides the cannibal murderer and Trudeau. "Very fine people. Be best. Be bigliest and best."

    For all the complaints that the old-stock identit-Aryans make about Trudeau's unfairly misinterpreted statement that Canada is a "post-nationalist" country with no core identity, it's the Cons who prove over and over again that they have no core identity. They're literally just a northern outpost of the party of Trump. (Better a post-nationalist identity than a National Post identity if you ask me.) Scheer should have held the party's retreat at Trump's grandpa's whorehouse, because that's how much of a cheap sellout he really is. There's a joke in there somewhere about Andrew Scheer choking on a poison mushroom. But I'll leave it at that.

    1. e.a.f.12:34 AM

      The Trump/U.S.A. imposed deadline for NAFTA may also have something to do with the tariffs going into effect with China. Having a done deal for NAFTA WILL distract the American media from the negative impacts the tariffs will have on the American economy.

    2. Hi Jackie...I thought your first comment was brilliant, and then you deliver one even more powerful. Some bloggers might be upset to have their post overshadowed by comment writers, but I am only too happy, and those who read this blog should be happy too. Once again you put your finger on the big problem. Scheer and his Cons have no core identity. They are Republican wannabes and can do nothing but hate. The way they are trying to undermine our heroic negotiating team is treasonous and unforgivable. There is no reason Canada should be rushed into signing a bad deal, and every reason we should take as much time as possible until hopefully the Democrats can seize control of Congress. And yes, Trump’s grandfather’s old whorehouse sounds like a great place for a Con retreat...😎

  3. Anonymous7:47 PM

    I am hearing that Bernier is picking up recruits all over the country. So while it’s too soon to measure his support, if I was Scheer i’d be very worried.

    1. Hi anon... yes I have also noticed that Bernier seems to be attracting support all over the country. It’s hard to quantify at this point, but you’re right Scheer should be worried....

  4. You should love Jagmeet Singh, he and Christine Moore shredded the NDP, caused a civil war in the party and killed off memberships and fundraising to the point that the more liberals want, Jagmeet to win the BC seat then New Democracts want him to lose, so he will go AWAY.

    It's great for, you the world can burn as long as the Tories don't win, never mind the fact that splitting the vote is only an issue because Trudeau broke his word on electoral reform because he knows that people like you won't hold him to account for it.

    We will see if you still okay with it when the next Doug Ford wins at the Federal level because of it!

    1. Jackie Blue12:29 AM

      I think we found our hate-filled NDPer. Justin Trudeau didn't "break his word." There was no consensus on electoral reform and he even said that. He preferred ranked balloting. Your NDP wanted ProRep. The Cons threw a fit and threatened a revolt. So rather than get Parliament bogged down and rock the boat he dropped the proposal altogether because nobody could get on the same page. ProRep isn't a panacea anyway, and splitting the vote happens no matter what way you, um, slice it. It's not working out so well in Sweden and Germany right now, is it? You want Trudeau to be in Merkel's shoes and have to negotiate for months with a multiparty clusterfuck coalition that includes the likes of Faith Goldy and Jordan Peterson?

      Besides, apparently most Canadians who got the postcards in the mail didn't know what to do with them. From what I've read it was too "wonky" of an issue versus bread-and-butter politics, protecting social progress and rebuilding the mess that Harper had laid waste to the country after 10 years. Then Fahrenheit 11/9 happened and the biggest issue by far became protecting the country from the newly elected lunatic to the immediate south who was already threatening Canada during the campaign. The MacLean's forum was last night or the other night; apparently the #1 issue that Trudeau gets mail about now is... seal clubbing. Now, I'm not happy with the electoral college in the US either -- it's a holdover of the 3/5 Compromise and it gave us Shrub and now the Tangerine Nightmare -- but I don't see it going anywhere soon and it's not a dealbreaker for me if a candidate doesn't run on that platform. For most Americans too, this is an inside baseball issue that's way down the list if it even registers on their radar at all.

      Ask yourself, why do you and Susan Sarandon want the world to "feel the Bern," and for Dotard J. Ford (!) to become Prime Minister to "teach liberals a lesson," as long as Trudeau the "neoliberal" gets what you feel is a deserved comeuppance? You do realize what a similar "take my marbles and go home" attitude among the Bernout Sandals cult regarding Hillary Clinton led to south of the border, don't you?

      This is why sensible liberals or as a number of people describe themselves "pragmatic progressives" are turned off by the militant "leftists" who'd rather engage in infighting and purity policing instead of unite against the shared enemy. Too many on your side refuse to compromise, to find "Common Ground" and are just as guilty of handing us all Trump as the deplorables themselves. If, the Force forbid, Doug Ford does ever become Prime Minister, the finger will be pointed (or "saluted" Pierre-style) at the spoiler Sanderistas of the North. Not Justin Rodham Trudeau.

    2. e.a.f.12:38 AM

      really can't figure out what you're trying to say there Gyor. Doug Ford wins at the Federal level? that would have to be after this upcoming federal election, if the Tories dump Scheer and he can find himself elected leader of the Cons. then he would have to wait for another federal election.

    3. Anonymous6:54 AM

      This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

    4. Hi Gyor...At least I am consistent. I have always been the same person while you on the other hand can’t seem to decide whether you are an NDP supporter or a Con. For the record I do like a Jagmeet Singh, I think he’s both decent and really cool. And I don’t blame him for the sad state of the NDP. I blame the old party members who are too senile and out of it and/or racist to embrace a guy like Singh. But then your disgusting hatred for feminists blinds you to reality. And please don’t blame the lack of electoral reform for vote splitting, it’s a problem caused by the left’s failure to unite. Period. Also with 15 per cent support the NDP could get less seats than the Bernier Party, and do we really want Mad Max or some tiny Nazi party to hold the balance of power? Finally, I had to think long and hard about your claim that I would rather the earth burn than see the Cons win, for I do have a burning desire to try to endure that racists, misogynists, and homophobes never rule this country. But no, the biggest reason I fight the Cons is because they are the ones who would burn the earth. And the best way to avoid that is to vote for the leader and the party who have the best chance of defeating them. And at this time that happens to be Trudeau and his Liberals...

    5. Hi anon@6:54AM...sorry I deleted your comment, but as I have told Cons before, I am not in the slightest bit interested in reading what Cons have to say. So the next time you feel the need to have a dump, ask Hamish Marshall for the keys to the Rebel, and have one there...

  5. e.a.f.12:52 AM

    B.C. is divided on the pipeline. There are many who don't want it, but they are in the urban areas. People in the rural areas, which aren't on the coast do want it. Then there are those in urban areas who are open to it, if they can ensure no tanker crashes and oil spills. If that were firmed up, many in B.C. would be more supportive of the tankers.

    The pipeline could go forward to keep Notley in office because the Liberals don't want Jason Kenny. Notley's chances will improve by simply bringing the pipeline through areas where there is support for it and then right around Abbotsford you turn the pipeline left and go into the U.S.A. Up until Abbotsford, in the Fraser Valley many of the First Nations have signed on to the pipeline.

    Trudeau has support in B.C. because the NDP is loosing it. People are also nervous after having seen what Ford has done in Ontario. They won't risk some one doing the same sort of thing nationally. No re do of Harper.

    As much as some t.v. media like to discuss how Trudeau might lose, they don't seem to understand he might win. its not like its on their radar. Don't know why, but it really does seem that not on CBC is doing that routine. CTV seems to have taken it up also. But then not a lot of people watch the t.v. news any more either out here in B.C. they're stuck in traffic trying to get home and pick up their kids at day care.

    1. Hi e.a.f...I believe that that there are two reasons Trudeau wants to build that pipeline. One, he thinks it will be easier to get the Western province’s to agree to a carbon tax, and that’s far more important than a pipeline with a limited life. And two, he doesn’t want to give Jason Kenney an excuse to try to take Alberta out of confederation. As prime minister Trudeau’s first responsibility is to keep this country together. Why more people don’t understand that is something I’ll never understand...

    2. You omitted the Greens in your analysis of federal politics in BC which, combined with provincial, shows the Greens as up-and-coming and leading a movement that is steadily gaining purchase right across the country.

      The Greens have been propelled forward not so much by policy distinctiveness as by fortuitous circumstances and strategy. The latter involved concentration of force and yielded the Green’s first federal seat. The former yielded their first provincial riding, contiguous with their federal Green counterpart. In the recent BC election, the BC Liberals had to go, most voters realized, but they were uncertain about the NDP whose ardent ideologues had blown the previous election. The NDP failed to grow its overall support. Green wins in other provinces seem to have followed the trend: they advance when one mainstream party (usually the governing one) is detested to the “anybody-but...” extent, but the mainstream alternative is sort of “meh...”.

      The Green strategy concentrates force on ridings of best prospect but only partially takes these ridings’ environmental sentiments into account, the other major part being disaffection with any of the other, mainstream parties on a host of other issuestop); the complete strategy is to advance from the beachheads won, the BC Green’s tactics now focus on getting pro-rep implemented. The BC Greens reneged on one of their main campaign promises to shut down the Site-C dam by not to threatening to withdraw their balance-of-power support of the NDP minority — so’s not to topple the government before the electoral systems Referendum could be held whence, if pro-rep prevails, they can win a lot more seats—an example of putting partisanship ahead of the public interest. Pro-rep is very much a contender in November’s Referendum.

      Thus we see the Greens strategically and tactically well-positioned—and the winds are familiarly fair for them: the Liberals are detested on the West Coast because of TMX (and to some extent, Site-C) and the Cons are sort of “meh...”. So what of the NDP?

      I agree Dipper-dinosaurs and ideologues are hurting the party—as usual, for them, just as right-wing ideologues harass the business side of the Liberals and the remnant of real Tory, nominal conservative parties. (Nota bene that the Greens seem undisturbed by an equivalent factionalism within their own party—although it’s probably obscured by their relative unpopularity and mostly unwarranted prejudices leveled against them.) The NDP was advantaged in BC by the HarperCon collapse, just like the Liberals were, but now have their own problems, including the fact that JT has deftly kiboshed the Albetarian NDP, Jagmeet Singh has been tepid in leadership, and the BC NDP has disappointed many of the high expectations it’d cultivated to wrest power from the 16 year-old BC Liberal regime. But, to me, the fact that we BC Dippers implored BC Greens to refrain from splitting the non-right vote, just for the last election—and they complied in many ridings (except, naturally, in their southern Vancouver Island beachhead) to get the job done, says a lot. (Hasten to add that the Green’s tripling of seats seems more strongly correlated to seats lost by the BC Liberals, not lost by the NDP —which, as mentioned, remained about as popular as it was in the previous election it’d lost).

      Thus the BC political circumstances are mushy, to say the least, which, I contend, is good for the Greens. That’s why I ask why you omitted their mention. Of course a lot hinges on the outcome of the Referendum: if pro-rep prevails, the Greens might very well topple the NDP minority ina bid to get more seats—and keep the ball rollijng in BC and right across the land.

  6. Our history and politics are more myth than facts. There is a myth that Cons are better financial managers and liberals are responsible for debt and deficit. In both the US and Canada this is false. Yet if you did a poll in either country the Con myth would win. This is the danger Will Robinson.

    I see educated people who dont believe in global warming, who think Tesla pollute more than ICE cars and who accept that Saddam Hussien had chemicals weapons and that the US is fighting in the middle east to kill people who hate democracy.

    Thats how Ford and Trump got elected.

  7. Nothing has changed. In the 1970s, I met Leni Riefenstahl, Hitler’s film-maker, whose propaganda mesmerized the German public.

    She told me the “messages” of her films were dependent not on “orders from above”, but on the “submissive void” of an uninformed public.

    “Did that include the liberal, educated bourgeoisie?” I asked.

    “Everyone,” she said. “Propaganda always wins, if you allow it.”

    1. Hi Steve...That’s a neat story. And I thought what Riefenstahl had to say was very interesting. I think the words “submissive void” are an excellent description of Con supporters, both here and the U.S. And of course this warning hasn’t aged at all. “Propaganda always wins if you allow it...”

    2. e.a.f.2:47 PM

      She was a brilliant director. When you look at what some of the far right is doing, its a very bad re do of her work, well the propaganda. its the circus, it whipping people into a fenzie and making them feel good and that they belong. For Trump's base, they haven't felt like they belonged anywhere for decades. He gave them a home. Ford, ditto. People don't listen to all that is being said, and hence the propaganda works and wins.