Friday, September 21, 2018
The Abacus Poll and the Incredible Shrinking Cons
Andrew Scheer was absent from Question Period yesterday, and nobody seemed to know where he was.
But I wouldn't be surprised if he was huddled with his ex-Rebel campaign manager Hamish Marshall trying to figure out what's going wrong.
Because so much is going wrong.
A series of devastating polls, have suggested the Cons are heading for a crushing defeat in the next election.
And a new Abacus poll can only make them feel worse.
For while it shows a slightly smaller gap between the Liberals and the Cons than other polls have, it is in other ways just as devastating for the Harper Party.
Starting with the fact that unlike 2015, it's still a two-party race.
So unless the NDP can dramatically boost its numbers, it will not split the progressive vote, which the Cons depend on if they are going to have any chance of winning.
And then there are the results in British Columbia where the Liberals are surging...
Despite the controversy over the Kinder Morgan pipeline.
And perhaps even more surprising, also surging in Ontario...
Where the arrival of Doug Ford seems to be really hurting the Cons.
Which if I can be excused for blowing my tiny trumpet, I correctly predicted...
And remember, this is before Maxime Bernier's new party starts gnawing away at Con support, especially in Quebec where the Liberals already have a massive lead.
And if you put it all together this is what it means:
“The competitive national race between the Liberals and Conservatives overlooks a tougher provincial landscape for the Conservatives. With large leads in Quebec, Ontario, BC, and Atlantic Canada, the Liberals would likely win another majority government if an election was held today.
Despite a fairly turbulent summer involving the Trans Mountain pipeline, border crossings, and NAFTA negotiations, support for the Liberals has held steady nationally and appears to have rebounded in Ontario after the provincial election. More people like Prime Minister Trudeau than dislike him and the government’s approval rating has held steady since March.
So while we can't become complacent, and must attack the Cons harder than ever.
And kick them when they're down until we're sure they no longer threaten this country and its values.
Scheer and his Cons are slowly shrinking...
And the universe is unfolding just as I thought it would...