Last week I said that the way Tom Mulcair's NDP was surging in the polls it wouldn't be long before it passed both the Liberals and the Cons.
And sure enough that seems to be what's happened.
A new EKOS poll has the NDP on top.
And another orange wave is now a real possibility.
It’s time for the skeptics to put away their doubts about the rise of the NDP. We can ask how long it might last, but no one can dismiss these numbers as the result of a rogue poll or sampling error. It’s real — get over it.
The overall results show a tight three-way race, with the NDP holding a statistically insignificant lead over the Conservatives and a marginally significant lead over the Liberals. The Conservatives and Liberals are statistically tied.
This tracking poll tells the story:
It shows the NDP still climbing like a rocket. And while it's bad news for the Liberals, it's especially bad news for Stephen Harper and his ghastly Cons.
Despite having pulled out the stops on publicly-funded advertising and tax incentives, Stephen Harper and his party are sitting fully twelve points back of where they were on election night in 2011.
We could make a reasonable guess that, if an election were to be held tomorrow, these numbers would see NDP and Liberals winning such a large majority of seats between them that a Conservative minority might have a very short shelf life.
Despite all the money he has spent promoting himself, he's heading in the wrong direction...
And with the Duffy trial set to resume in just over a week he's going to have a hard time regaining any momentum.
There is of course the danger that with the NDP and the Liberals now so close it could create a vote-splitting situation, where the Cons could take advantage to slide up the middle.
But my guess is that after seeing how badly Justin Trudeau is doing, many Canadians are starting to believe that Mulcair has the best chance of defeating the Cons.
And if the gap between the NDP and the Liberals continues to grow, more of them will flock to Mulcair and his party to make sure that vote split doesn't happen. As they would also do for the Liberals if Trudeau was leading.
But I leave you to sift through the tea leaves and come to your own conclusions. As you know although I favour the NDP, I'm not a fierce partisan. All I'm interested in is driving a stake through the heart of the Con regime.
And the way the NDP numbers have been rising as the Liberal numbers fall, tells me I'm not the only one.
And if that's the case the dictator is doomed.
So on my way home this evening, I did pause a moment at this statue to the man who barely lived to see the first orange wave...
And I couldn't help thinking how sad it was that Jack Layton didn't live to see another orange wave sweep across Alberta.
Or see another one forming up and maybe even preparing to sweep across the country.
But as I peddled off one thought did make me happy. Whether its orange, or red, or most likely a mixture of the two, our future has never looked brighter.
And the journey Jack began continues...
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24 comments:
Do you know who was on the front seat of that bicycle built for two? Stephen Harper. Think about that.
hi anon...no you're wrong. Olivia Chow used to ride on the front seat. I know because I saw them many times cycling through my neighbourhood. And I used to wave at them as they went by. As I would wave at Justin Trudeau if he went peddling by. I may support some progressives more than others, but I don't see any of them as the enemy. For me there is only one enemy and his name is Stephen Harper. BTW do you see how shiny the seat and the handlebars are? That's because thousands and thousands of people have their photos taken riding that bike every summer. Isn't that great?
That's awesome news given that Harper's spending our money like a drunken sailor on his nauseating " Baubles and Trinkets Tour 2015". It proves that there's not enough lipstick in the world to cover this pig of a government and Canadians are finally realizing it.
JD
The NDP surge was mentioned in two segments of Friday's Power & Politics:
Slide time bar to 51:30 mark.
http://www.cbc.ca/player/News/TV+Shows/Power+%26+Politics+with+Evan+Solomon/ID/2667727410/
I think what the first Anon is trying to say is that the NDP helped Stephen Harper topple the Liberals in 2006.
Anyways, I'm sure the Liberals and Cons will run a fear campaign, but I look forward to an NDP government in October. They are committed to PR and will likely introduce something right away if elected. Then we'll never have to worry about the Cons again and Canada can finally move forward.
I don't have a copy of Jack Layton's letter to Canadians.........now may be a good time to have it in print?
Reminds me of $24 worth of beads.
I'm glad Canadians have started to realize that Trudeau is Harper 2.0
I am also an NDP supporter but Trudeau is not Harper 2. Tired of the nastiness and lies. Want Harper out. Both Mulcair and Trudeau care about the country.
Why aren't the Cons and Libs splitting the centre to right vote with the NDP heading up the middle? This time around that's how I see it. But voter support as we know does not translate into seats.
Hey, people don't forget the woman over in lane 4, Elizabeth May.
If it looks like Steve and his Cons are going to loose, don't be surprised if he repeals his every 4 yrs bill and goes back to 5 yrs, per the old game rules. He will say it isn't the right time to have an election with all the security issues Canada is facing. Don't think he wouldn't do it? Well if I wanted to ensure a win, I sure would and there is nothing we could do about it to stop it.
There is nothing the Cons wouldn't do to win.
Simon, go to the French version of the site, NPD.CA
You'll be nostalgic for the familiar segments in the Montréal video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AfdvCr5FUmg
Well Simon this is good news Tom souring Steve falling eh? I am not a card carrying member of any political party but I want truth in government I think Tom is our only hope. I hope I have not misjudged eh?
Mogs....
hi JD...yes it is good news, for it shows that Canadians are opening their eyes to other choices, and may be prepared to embrace a social democratic government. The winds of change I am picking up are still faint breezes, but I hope they can one day become a howling gale that will blow away our mental shackles and allow us to create a new and better Canada....
hi rumleyfips...yes tragically some people in this country are easily bought. I hope they will raise themselves off their knees and demand more. This is a big country but some of its people are so small...
hi anon...yes I understand that, and it did turn out to be a tragic mistake. But it is the past, and the partisanship that divides us in the face of the real enemy, is killing us. It really is time to put country before party. And yes I do believe that PR would be a step forward. It would force us to form coalitions, and compromise, which is of course the way this country was built...
hi Kathleen.... yes it was a sad and moving letter and you can read it here:
http://www.ndp.ca/letter-to-canadians-from-jack-layton
hi Gyor....I too am glad that the NDP is doing well, and since I am quite a bit to the left of the NDP, I obviously don't agree with some of the things Justin Trudeau has done. But let's be clear, he is not Harper 2.0. Trudeau may be misguided, but Stephen Harper is evil. To fail to make that distinction does the NDP no favours. Especially since when I look at the numbers it's very likely that the NDP and the Liberals will have to form a coalition to topple the Cons. How would you feel then? Or would you rather leave the Cons in power?
hi anon...I share your view completely. It's time to put aside our minor differences, and unite to save our Canada...
hi anon....I suppose anything is possible. But the inconvenient truth is that the Cons are a distinctive party and both the NDP and the Liberals are similar in more respects than their ultra partisan supporters care to admit. So any splits tend to work against us...
hi e.a.f....I like Elizabeth May a lot, and she should be allowed to take part in the debates. But the sad truth is that if the Greens did increase their share of the vote, it will only aggravate the split in the progressive ranks and make it more likely that the Cons could win a majority. We should not be divided, it is insanity, and it could cost us what's left of our country...
hi lagatta...thanks for the link to that video. It is definitely a step in the right direction. And yes it did make me nostalgic. But if you look at the kind of ads that the Yes side deployed in Scotland and Ireland, it's still too traditional. We need to move people to action, in favour of what we Quebecers call a projet de société.
Anything less is not enough...
hi Mogs...it certainly is good news. Justin Trudeau was once the guy many believed or hoped would save us from the Harper Cons. But if he falls out of contention, and his trend line continues to fall, only the NDP can save us from the Harper Cons...
Simon: Trudeau is a fake-liberal sellout. But just one in a long line starting with Clinton and Chretien. Chretien, for instance, railed against Brian Mulroney. Then turned the Liberals into the Brian Mulroney party after winning the election in 1993. (Mulroney was the most right-wing PC in the post-war era. His "Reaganomics" income tax cuts for the rich were the main reason Chretien inherited a whopping deficit. Of course, Chretien chose the neoliberal policy of cutting spending instead of reversing the failed policy.)
In any case, Trudeau's strategy of giving Red Tories the economy and giving "progressives" social issues, like abortion and cannabis liberalization, is almost unavoidable. Given our antiquated voting system awards absolute power to 37% minority parties, and that conservatives (hard-core, Red Tory and Blue Liberal) make up 40% of the electorate, he has to give the Red Tories something to keep the Cons away from majority territory. (In 2011, the orange wave united the cons behind Harper at the last minute.)
The only way to change this odious dynamic is with voting reform. There are two types: Proportional Representation and Ranked Ballot Voting (make MPs earn their seats with a majority.)
My bet is that PR is "un-Canadian". That is, it's too drastic of a change. So to ensure Canada becomes a literal democracy (where a majority is represented in government,) Canadians must be allowed to choose what kind of voting system we want in a referendum. This can be accomplished with a 3-option referendum (FPTP, PR and RBV) with a runoff referendum between the top-two choices (to ensure one system has the support of a majority of voters.)
So if you really want to make a difference, you should promote democratic voting and a democratic electoral-reform referendum. If we had either PR or RBV, Harper would've been ousted years ago, instead of becoming the 2nd-longest-serving Con PM. (If we had PR or RBV in 2011, Jack Layton would've become the first NDP PM. Imagine the freedom!)
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