Thursday, April 30, 2015

Alberta: The NDP Closes In On A Majority

It may be hard to believe, but something amazing is happening in Alberta.

Other polls have documented the rise of the NDP.

But now one is suggesting the party is closing in on a majority. 

Something astounding is happening in the Conservative heartland. The Alberta New Democrats’ polling surge is no blip — it’s real, and at the moment it appears Albertans are getting ready to make history by switching governing parties for only the fourth time in their history. 

After 43 years and 12 consecutive majority governments, the provincial Progressive Conservatives are in deep trouble. Their support appears to have imploded for both genders and across all age groups. The NDP and its leader, Rachel Notley, are not only on track to win on May 5, they may well be headed for a majority.

And all I can say is that if the NDP does manage to win, Canadian politics will never be the same. It would be a beautiful day for Canadians and Albertans.

It could be a game changer in the next federal election. It would damage the Con brand in the west, and be good for all progressive parties.

And of course it would be a huge blow for Great Cowboy Leader...

And there is a lesson in this result for progressives everywhere, in the factors propelling this orange surge:

A united centre-left. The NDP owes its success to its ability to unite progressive voters across the province. Federal Liberal, NDP and Green Party supporters have all rallied around the Notley banner. 

A divided right. In an exquisite juxtaposition of the federal scene, small-c conservative voters are split between hard and light-right. (The federal Conservative Party doesn’t face this handicap, obviously.)

It's happening because the right is divided, and if we were united instead of divided the Con regime would be on the ropes, and never able to get anywhere near power.

We'd crush them into the dirt.

Let's hope for that happy day.

And in the meantime, as they say in Alberta, YEE HAW !!!!!

Way to go Albertans. 

Go Rachel GO !!!!

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  1. Your right it is a lesson for the next Federal Election, it shows for an alternative to beat the right, one choice has to crush the rest other would be parties. The Albertan NDP has crush the ALP, AP, AG parties and while they're now pulling PCs voters and even some Wildrose, it was crushing the Liberal factions and taking thy're vote that has allowed that to happen, not mergers, but rather crushing the competition has lead to progressives uniting.

    1. hi Gyor...look I don't care how progressives unite, whether they do it by supporting one party, or form a coalition, or a new merged party. But the lesson couldn't be clearer, when we are divided the Cons have the advantage, when we are united great things can happen. I don't see other progressives as the enemy only as allies in the face of the most monstrous regime this country has ever seen...

  2. Anonymous6:16 PM

    I personally could not heard of better news Steve's adopted Province turning on him and the PC's you can only stretch an elastic band so far before it snaps back in your face. It is time to heave Steve!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


    1. hi Mogs...try not to be TOO excited or you'll jinx us ;) But yes it is good news. A good showing by the NDP would definitely hurt the Con brand in the west by breaking their monopoly on power. And Notley's excellent performance should be noted by others....

  3. Anonymous6:54 PM

    Wouldn't that be a good swift kick in the nuts for Harper. It also bodes well for Mulcair if JT doesn't start making noise on his election platform or lack thereof.
    Thanks to Ekos for this poll today. I couldn't think of a better gift for Lord Harpo on his 56th year of existence.

    1. hi would indeed be a massive blow to Great Leader. The Liberals in Ontario drive him crazy enough, but the NDP in his beloved Albertonia would just about drive him over the deep end. And yes, let's hope that poll put a damper on his birthday party, and that he was so deflated maureen had to blow out the candles... ;)

  4. Anonymous8:13 PM

    If this sends Closet Leader into the closet again, it is alright with me.

    Seriously though, it sends the clear message to us that if JT and the Libs are not willing to work with the NDP, as he had publicly enunciated several times now, then our only hope is that the federal NDP serves to unite the progressive non Cons votes.

    We can leave the Libs to troll for the soft Cons votes since it appears they are intent on doing so. The Libs are unable to heave Steve now that it appears most of the soft Cons votes they thought they had locked up had gone back to Closet Leader.

    As in the Albertan case, it would appear that we might have a better chance heaving Steve with Mulcair than JT if the progressive Libs votes migrate to the NDP.

    Here's hoping that the NDP wins a majority on Tuesday night as the first step for heaving Steve, eh?

    1. hi anon...yes it is a very exciting development, and it could certainly help the federal NDP. As for Justin Trudeau he needs to pull up his socks, because I'm pretty sure that when the election arrives many progressives will vote for the leader they think has the best chance of defeating the Cons. And right now the NDP has more momentum than he has....

  5. Its not even highest one, 1abvote's poll has the NDP at 44%.

  6. Anonymous10:26 PM

    As the media types search for answers they never suggest it might be that Albertans are looking around and studying places like Norway and thinking 'we ben robbed.' Unfortunately they can never get all that wealth back, but they might have learned a lesson.

    1. hi anon...I think the main reason is that they are tired of the Conservatives for among other reasons calling an unnecessary election. But it's encouraging that they are considering a progressive party for a change. And I'm pretty sure that hard times have helped them be more open to the NDP. Because when hard times hit the last thing you need are Cons running things....

  7. Anonymous10:29 PM

    I'm from BC and all I can say is "Don't count your chickens before they're hatched."
    I'm afraid to exchange cynicism for hope but if it does happen in Alberta, then....!

    1. hi I realize that one can't rely on the polls. Not after what happened during the last Alberta election. But still, the polls are firming up, and something is definitely going on. And of course hope is cheap...;)

  8. Anonymous5:46 AM

    I fear that Albertans will get cold feet and vote against the polls.

    However, if we see an NDP leadership or majority in Alberta next week, it will clearly lift the sails of the federal NDP. Mulcair has been official opposition almost as long as Steve was, giving perfect validation to the idea that he can lead Canada.

    To be honest - and despite the union influence - I would welcome this change as opposed to our Crooked Con Slippery Steve, Harper-Lite or Granny Green.

    1. hi anon...well anything could happen. Prentice and his gang are now trying to scare their supporters back into the fold, and will no doubt soon be demonizing Motley as a dangerous communist. But she seems quite able to stand her ground, so I doubt it will work. And even a minority government would be better than a Con dynasty...

  9. Anonymous6:21 AM

    An NDP Majority in Ottawa?
    "Wouldn't it be lovely..."
    Eliza Doolittle

    1. hi anon...that would indeed be lovely. But when I look at the polls, and the vote splitting situation, I'm still betting on a progressive coalition which hopefully would also include the Greens. And that would also make me very happy...

  10. Anonymous9:08 AM

    I was born and raised smack in the middle of Alberta. My father was appalled when the oil corporations slurped up all the wealth and when Trudeau's idea was trashed. No only would Alberta have been rich, rich, rich, but so would Canada have been. It was an amazing propaganda coup the oily folks pulled off. Some day some one will do the research and write the book about the real story of the NEP.

    I have watched beautiful Alberta be robbed and poisoned and ripped off. Now they will be poorer and learn their less too late.

  11. Elconomics 101- the cons would still have a majoreity if oil hadn't taken a nose-dive...all those job losses maybe made people think about things..
    And never underestimate the power of Neshi's role in all this..he is a progressive in every sense of the work without being overly dogmatic, cheerful, helpful and well loved by his constituents..a daily example for all Albertans of how it could be.
    I can hardly believe this is happening, but as a BCer I am crossing my fingers, envious yet hopeful that it happens...

  12. e.a.f.7:22 PM

    Albertans are angry because King Ralph left some money in the bank and its gone. Its that simple. The money Ralph left is gone, some one robbed the cookie jar and people are upset. then to top it off, prentice suggested MS premiums. Even if they were for people who earned over $50K, people were still upset. The Albertans I know kept asking, what happened to the money Ralph left.

    Now add Allison's high flying ways, a little of prentices antics and viola, people are upset.

    Many years ago, in Texas, a Republican was looking like he was going to win the position of Govenor. then they had a debate and he was rude to the woman running for the Democrats. She won, he lost. Reason, bad manners. Back into those days, in Texas, you weren't rude to ladies.

    If the Alberta Conservatives loose the election it will be because of the simple things, all tolled. The Mayor of Calgary got the ball rolling by saying its wasn't wise to spend $23 million on an election when Prentice already had a mandate. Then people might not have been happy that Prentice called an election when 2 of the political parties didn't have leaders. its wasn't playing fair.

    We can only wait and see if history is made on Tuesday.

  13. Anonymous5:37 PM

    It's interesting that Harper has been busying himself hither and yon, far away from Alberta despite the signs of the wheels coming off the PC wagon out there.

    Where were his usual, stuffy, dead-eyed admonitions to the masses that "now is not the time" (for whatever he doesn't want to happen) or that "Canadians are telling us they want" (or don't want) this or that or any/all of his usual Jedi mind control schtick?

    Something tells me that the CPC's state-of-the-art election management machinery saw this coming a while ago and a decision was made to distance its leader as much from it as possible so that Prentice will wind up wearing the defeat all by himself.

    Also, you can be assured that The Harper Government's operatives have been hard at work devising scenarios whereby its powers federally can be used to discredit, thwart and upturn any and everything a despised Alberta provincial premier and her party might try and enact. (And that's not even speculating about the dirt - real or invented - that CSIS and the RCMP have likely been digging up on the NDP in the province and its members.)

    By all means celebrate such a win if it comes; but don't look away for a second because there's a sucker punch coming soon after.