Friday, May 22, 2015
Orange Wave Rising: A New Poll Shows the NDP On Top
Last week I said that the way Tom Mulcair's NDP was surging in the polls it wouldn't be long before it passed both the Liberals and the Cons.
And sure enough that seems to be what's happened.
A new EKOS poll has the NDP on top.
And another orange wave is now a real possibility.
It’s time for the skeptics to put away their doubts about the rise of the NDP. We can ask how long it might last, but no one can dismiss these numbers as the result of a rogue poll or sampling error. It’s real — get over it.
The overall results show a tight three-way race, with the NDP holding a statistically insignificant lead over the Conservatives and a marginally significant lead over the Liberals. The Conservatives and Liberals are statistically tied.
This tracking poll tells the story:
It shows the NDP still climbing like a rocket. And while it's bad news for the Liberals, it's especially bad news for Stephen Harper and his ghastly Cons.
Despite having pulled out the stops on publicly-funded advertising and tax incentives, Stephen Harper and his party are sitting fully twelve points back of where they were on election night in 2011.
We could make a reasonable guess that, if an election were to be held tomorrow, these numbers would see NDP and Liberals winning such a large majority of seats between them that a Conservative minority might have a very short shelf life.
Despite all the money he has spent promoting himself, he's heading in the wrong direction...
And with the Duffy trial set to resume in just over a week he's going to have a hard time regaining any momentum.
There is of course the danger that with the NDP and the Liberals now so close it could create a vote-splitting situation, where the Cons could take advantage to slide up the middle.
But my guess is that after seeing how badly Justin Trudeau is doing, many Canadians are starting to believe that Mulcair has the best chance of defeating the Cons.
And if the gap between the NDP and the Liberals continues to grow, more of them will flock to Mulcair and his party to make sure that vote split doesn't happen. As they would also do for the Liberals if Trudeau was leading.
But I leave you to sift through the tea leaves and come to your own conclusions. As you know although I favour the NDP, I'm not a fierce partisan. All I'm interested in is driving a stake through the heart of the Con regime.
And the way the NDP numbers have been rising as the Liberal numbers fall, tells me I'm not the only one.
And if that's the case the dictator is doomed.
So on my way home this evening, I did pause a moment at this statue to the man who barely lived to see the first orange wave...
And I couldn't help thinking how sad it was that Jack Layton didn't live to see another orange wave sweep across Alberta.
Or see another one forming up and maybe even preparing to sweep across the country.
But as I peddled off one thought did make me happy. Whether its orange, or red, or most likely a mixture of the two, our future has never looked brighter.
And the journey Jack began continues...
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