Tuesday, September 03, 2019

Are Justin Trudeau's Liberals Heading For Victory Again?

I spent much of the long weekend out on the lake, watching some small but really fast sailing boats take advantage of a very strong wind to skim across the lake.

While also watching the RAF's aerobatic team, the Red Arrows, roar across the sky above.

On their way to the CNE Air Show.

And strangely enough both those bright red planes and the boats reminded me of this:

The fact that the Trudeau Liberals now seem to have the wind in their sails again. And appear to be climbing past the Cons.

Their numbers in Ontario are shooting upwards...

As are their numbers in Quebec...

Where according to this Leger poll, the Liberals are now leading the Cons by 34% to 23%%.

As in other parts of Canada the NDP appears to be collapsing.

While this NDP figure is quite low (and may be an outlier), the trend has been clear from several pollsters of late: the NDP has lost ground in every region of the country since 2015, and it's becoming increasing difficult to see how it could pull itself back into contention.

And despite all the hype the Green Party is going still going nowhere.

The Green Party of Canada, after surging in voting intentions this spring, appears to have stalled at around 10-12% of national support. Polls published in August have all given the Greens between 7% and 13% support.

Which should make it harder to split the vote, and combined with their lead in Atlantic Canada, sets the Liberals up for a really good election night.

Of course there are still 47 days to go, so I suppose anything could happen.

And Gerald Butts has some sage advice for Liberal supporters:

But I think something else has to be said. 

It's been a hard slog back from the darkness of the fake scandal. 

But Justin Trudeau and his team seem to have done it, and deserve a lot of credit.

Now all they have to do is hold their formation, work even harder to destroy the Cons.

And the sky is the limit... 


Jackie Blue said...

Big typo in one of your paragraphs. Should be 47 days until election day, not 75.

I really don't want to count any chickens yet. There's still the JWR book launch that the media might gnaw on, and any number of dirty tricks the Cons might pull from their... uh, hat. Fortunately, there was way too much other news that pretty well buried the Minhaj interview under the radar outside the screeching GreenDipperCon partisan echo chamber on Twitter. (Thanks, BoJo?) So not likely to have the impact that John Oliver did in 2015, which is good because apparently it was a real trial by fire. Even though he concluded by saying that, obviously, "the haunted doll from The Conjuring" (Andy Doody) would be far worse.

Also, a new Nanos came out from the groundhog den today and showed another 4-point lead. Fournier pays up for the subscription unlike Grenier, and included it in his latest update. As of tonight, 338 has the Liberals projected for 167 seats, Cons at 139. 70/30 odds of the Liberals winning the most seats, if not an outright majority.

Like you said, there's still a ways to go, and I'm with Gerry. Campaigns matter. Don't get distracted by the numbers, get motivated by them. Polls don't vote, people do. But it is nonetheless really nice momentum to go into the campaign. Hope and hard work, everybody. Hope and hard work.

Gyor said...

At least part of why Jagmeet's collapsing of the NDP appears to be thanks to anti Sikhism and perhaps racism, so I'm not progressives should be celebrating that.

Not all of it can be blamed on that of course, what his alienating the Praires over Erin Weir was a huge mistake as was not visiting Newbrunswhick.

Jackie Blue said...

Care to explain why his predecessor has such a revenge-filled hate-on for Trudeau that he's giving free advice to Scheer? In a right-wing tabloid rag that also employs Anthony Furey, who just tweeted fake news about Palestinian refugees, and Sue-Ann Levy, who scaremongered so harshly about Muslim refugees that it sparked a white supremacist to set fire to a hotel where they were staying? Why is Angry Tom aiding and abetting those same racists? Why are any of these people employable in any capacity in Canada, let alone the crumbling fourth estate?

Sounds like your party has a lot of problems that need addressing. The Liberals aren't perfect and they've had their own share of identity politics issues even as of late. (Hiring JWR was their biggest, but I'd rather not even think about her.) But the NDP seems to have gone full "orange vests". That the Greens are willing to pick those racists up makes both of them unsupportable. At least the Liberals make good on "there's the door."

Anonymous said...

From official opposition a few short years ago to recent polls showing less than 10% support the NDP certainly appear to be in a death spiral. Although there are likely many factors a Wikipedia review of general voter groupings during the 2015 election suggests some main reasons. The first one is the predominant group of supporters tended to be from Quebec, BC and in the lower part of the income distribution curve with little cultural diversity in their ridings. Historically this group represented private sector factory and retail workers which relied on collective bargaining and a sympathetic government to give them a voice. Global supply chains and immigrant workers helped destroy this dynamic leaving them without influence. In desperation or perhaps f*u revenge they have moved into the populist camp leaving the NDP trying to make up for the shortfall by wooing left of left liberals. That support during the last election was more about countering vote splitting than actual long term NDP support. There are other factors such as large public sector unions now consider the NDP more a bargaining chip in efforts to follow the money and lobby the likely winners. Also display of religious symbols in Quebec public positions of authority is a vote burner.

Where to from here? Perhaps a few years wandering the wilderness and hopefully by then the angry crowd will either self destruct or come to their senses and realize their day is done but perhaps a working persons party that supports rights to a guaranteed income with dignity attached to it, access to education/retraining and a voice is something worth supporting. On the other hand the angry are roaming through the china shop with baseball bats and I wonder what unlikely but crazy dynamics such as a separatist Reformacon minority teamed with a Bloc could do to this country in the interim.


Jackie Blue said...

Hey Simon look at this. Hamish and Jeff went trick or treating early.


What the actual fuck? And they have the nerve to call Trudeau an unserious candidate and pick on his socks. This is an official statement from the current leader of Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition. The Liberals talk about policy. The Conservatives do... this?

Sir John A was a raging alcoholic and yet was probably 100 times more dignified. Yet a flushable turd of the country is on board with this juvenile bullshit. One way or another, a milk-chugging toddler named Scheer must be in charge of this Twitter account. I hope this idiocy persuades whatever adult members remain in the party to stay home on election day. Nobody should reward this crap with their vote.

Simon said...

HI Jackie....Thanks I corrected the number. And no I'm not taking anything for granted. I'll be hitting the streets in about two weeks once/if I can change my hours. The Canadian electorate is in such a state that it's going to take a mighty struggle to talk them down let alone listen to what you have to say...l

Simon said...

Hi Gyor....I'm not celebrating, I like Jagmeet. As it turns out the size of that defection was exaggerated. But I'm not surprised he's not popular in New Brunwick when he didn't visit that province. Still, you never know with the way things are in this country Jagmeet could end up propping up a Trudeau government, and then we would truly have the sharpest dressed and coolest leaders in the world...😉

Simon said...

Hi RT....I blame the NDP's sad state on Tom Mulcair. He was good in Parliament taking on Harper, Just like he took on the PQ in the Quebec National Assembly. But he took the party to the right allowing Justin Trudeau to outflank him on the left. And after the election Mulcair was so bitter he sounded like a Con. They should have replaced him sooner but they let him hang on for too long, and he took the party down with him...

Simon said...

Hi Jackie.....Yes I saw that chicken shit would be meme. Pathetic. But I have at least two chicken Scheers and now I suddenly have the urge to create another. Half chicken half hog. 🐷