Tuesday, September 03, 2019
Are Justin Trudeau's Liberals Heading For Victory Again?
I spent much of the long weekend out on the lake, watching some small but really fast sailing boats take advantage of a very strong wind to skim across the lake.
While also watching the RAF's aerobatic team, the Red Arrows, roar across the sky above.
On their way to the CNE Air Show.
And strangely enough both those bright red planes and the boats reminded me of this:
The fact that the Trudeau Liberals now seem to have the wind in their sails again. And appear to be climbing past the Cons.
Their numbers in Ontario are shooting upwards...
As are their numbers in Quebec...
Where according to this Leger poll, the Liberals are now leading the Cons by 34% to 23%%.
As in other parts of Canada the NDP appears to be collapsing.
While this NDP figure is quite low (and may be an outlier), the trend has been clear from several pollsters of late: the NDP has lost ground in every region of the country since 2015, and it's becoming increasing difficult to see how it could pull itself back into contention.
And despite all the hype the Green Party is going still going nowhere.
The Green Party of Canada, after surging in voting intentions this spring, appears to have stalled at around 10-12% of national support. Polls published in August have all given the Greens between 7% and 13% support.
Which should make it harder to split the vote, and combined with their lead in Atlantic Canada, sets the Liberals up for a really good election night.
Of course there are still 47 days to go, so I suppose anything could happen.
And Gerald Butts has some sage advice for Liberal supporters:
But I think something else has to be said.
It's been a hard slog back from the darkness of the fake scandal.
But Justin Trudeau and his team seem to have done it, and deserve a lot of credit.
Now all they have to do is hold their formation, work even harder to destroy the Cons.
And the sky is the limit...