Saturday, September 20, 2014

Will Mike Duffy Force an Early Election or Harper's Early Resignation?

A few days ago I told you that I honestly believe that Stephen Harper is preparing for an early election to try to avoid the trial of Mike Duffy.

In case the trial should start soon enough to be a factor in the next election campaign.

And some of my friends said they thought I was pushing it, that he just wants to be ready so he can strike ANYTIME.

And they may be right. He may be looking for a war so he can pose as a Great Strong Leader. Or waiting for a big trial so he can pit the rabble against the judiciary.

But like Scott Reid, I believe that nobody should underestimate the impact of the Duffy trial. 

If Mike Duffy’s trial arrives before or during the 2015 federal campaign it will drive a cement nail straight through Stephen Harper’s hopes for re-election. The threat is so enormous that it may force the prime minister to consider a choice that most observers believe him to have already rejected: retirement from public life.

Because while this scandalous show hasn't played for a while...

One shouldn't forget how popular it was.

Do they recall the ferocious sun-blotted-from-the-sky public attention it commanded? Do they remember that Mike Duffy is in a desperate, breathless condition with nothing left to lose and every intention of causing harm? And do they recognize that this is a trial that could put a man Stephen Harper handpicked for the Senate behind bars, profiling PMO efforts to conceal his sins, fill his wallet, hush him up and bury the evidence?

Or underestimate how popular its new season could be. Or how devastating it could be for Stephen Harper's chances of winning the next election.

Imagine all of this unfolding in public – again. Except this time with added rigour and filled-in details. Not leaked out in spastic bursts through media reports, but explored carefully and transparently according to the rules of court. Imagine Nigel Wright’s testimony – as he’s compelled under oath to describe what conversations he had, with whom, and when. 

Imagine the prime minister himself on the stand being questioned and challenged by Duffy’s defence lawyer about his version of events. Now imagine all of this happening during an election – or just short weeks before. Does any of that sound remotely survivable to anyone with a salt-shaker’s worth of political common sense?

Or how it could force Harper to choose between an early election or an early departure...

If Harper leaves before the trial – and the next election – he doesn’t eliminate all risk to the Conservatives, but he’d help them dodge the worst of it.Dalton McGuinty’s departure in Ontario didn’t erase the gas plants scandal but it certainly opened the door for Kathleen Wynne’s turn at renewal.

If Harper leaves at Christmas there’s still time for a March budget and an April leadership convention before a fall campaign.

And let's not forget, as I keep pointing out, that by Christmas Great Ugly Leader will have passed Brian Mulroney to become the sixth longest serving Prime Minister in Canadian history.

So why would he not leave in the purple glow of that dubious achievement?

Rather than stick around and risk being humiliated by Tom Mulcair, or Justin Trudeau.

There’s one other great advantage to departing – the certainty of not losing, which must be attractive for a prime minister who has led his party from literally nothing to minority government and to majority. Any thought of returning to opposition must seem dreadful.

Or Mike Duffy...

What will he do? I have no idea. And since he's so crazy desperate these days I doubt he knows either.

But what I do know is that we must start spreading the message that Stephen Harper is preparing an early election. Just so he can dodge the Duffy trial, like a criminal in a getaway car.

So that if he does call an early election before the trial begins, he can be tainted by that scandal anyway, right from the start.

Oh boy. I can't wait for the second season of Senategate. It should be even better than the first season and twice as SORDID !!!!!

I'm going to need a ton of popcorn eh?

Or two tons.

For it will be REALLY entertaining.

And it will have a happy ending...

Please click here to recommend this post at Progressive Bloggers.


the salamander said...

... funny how Pammy Wallin seems stalled..
The Evil Twin to Duffy. The Senate bewitched..

no Charges.. but allegations have been filed
Fraud... Abuse of Trust ..

P'raps some day, these landmark court cases
will be claimed as resounding conservative 'victories'
by Van Loan, DeLorey, Ray Novak.. Jenni Byrne or other trash

Look for Cabinet Confidence.. or Peter MacKay
or some convoluted and polluted Harper Paramountcy Proclamation
to declare 'nolle conprendust' & that in fact
to be perfectly clear on the matter at hand
that Duffy in fact never truly existed.. in a Parliamentary sense
that Nigel Wright is 'our great friend' .. a millionaire patriot
and that the great oil shall pour to China
a munificent Harper gift to all Canadians and their Portfolios

If we can get any more abstract
perhaps we will see that China is but 10 k offshore of Kitimaat now
and Great Mordor Harper Pipeline will pump bitchumen (?)
in return for temporary foreign werkers to staff the PMO ..

mizdarlin said...

I find it truly ironic that Harper and his merry minions are smack in the middle of a bigger scandal than even the Liberals could have imagined, back in the day...and didn't Emperor Steve make a great feast on the discomfiture of his brothers in arms, the Liberals, during all that sound and fury (ultimately signifying nothing...)
And coming back from the Mulroney insanity, the Cons felt they had the moral high ground...turns out it was the same sort of quicksand that the gLibs were stepping into..
But Harper defect? Abscond? Step down from the throne? I can't see it..he is too power mad to ever go voluntarily, even under legal threat... unless he's truly pushed....or figures out a way to prorogue the next election and declare himself life time Prime or whatever....

deb said...

Harper might as well stay on, to dictate what he can thru the trial and have his minions do as much damage control as possible. But personally, I dont think this trial is ever going to unfold to affect Harper. Thats the real possibility, how long can he make it drag thru the court system process to make sure Duffy instead just dies. Or just gets forgiven, somehow, mysteriously or takes a fall that is much padded( and helped with alot of cash for duffys family):P
Nope I doubt there will be a trial, one way or the other. Harper will continue on as I have lost any belief in such a crooked system that exists here in Canada.
Robocall scandal anyone, he tried to steal the election and he still is at the helm.

Anonymous said...

I would say? The fix is in for Duffy, just as the fix was in for Nigel Wright. As they said, the RCMP work for the PMO, not for the Canadian citizens. No-one is permitted to question the RCMP either. I very much doubt Duffy will ever see, the inside of a prison cell.

Nigel Wright is being harbored in the U.K. Don'r expect him back to testify. Don't expect Harper to testify either. That's where Harper sent his favorite degenerate Gordon Campbell, was to the U.K. BC people want Gordon Campbell dragged back to BC by the scruff of his neck, to be tried for his theft and corrupt sale of the BCR. Premier Christy Clark was Campbell's Deputy Premier, while he was setting up his theft and the two patsies that took the fall for Campbell. Christy Clark lied and cheated, to win her election too.

Harper will never resign. He has no sense of shame for what he has done to Canada, what-so-ever. Imagine the lies he told, in one x-mas interview. Harper said he was a devout Christian. Harper said he prayed for guidance every day. My son spewed his coffee, nearly across the room. He said, Harper must have meant *preyed* everyday.

Stalin, Hitler and Mussolini were all paranoid sociopath dictators, with very similar personalities. They were all pretty much lunatics. They refused to step down, even though their countries were being bombed into rubble and their citizens were dying. Harper has the same characteristics, he is every bit as hateful as the other dictators. Harper knows exactly how much he is hated? His security bill has quadrupled.

As of Oct 1st? Harper has sold Canada to Communist China. This was his plan, right during Gordon Campbell's reign of terror in BC. Harper and Campbell has already given much of BC to Communist China.

Anonymous said...

Hey, Gordo the Greedo dodged a huge bullet here in BC after the BC Rail kerfuffle and it only cost the taxpayers a 6 million payment to Basi and Virk to go away and shut up. Harper has access to way more cash than that to encourage Duffy to shut the f--- up, and you can be sure he will try to get the taxpayers to foot the bill, rather than the ReformaCon party to pay for it (although that's all tax-free money they get). I can't even imagine all the possibilities Harper can come up with to stay in power, after all, that is his primary goal - and to get even richer than he already is, and all paid for by the taxpayer. Greed is good, right?

Scotian said...

deb Scott:

I'm not so sure Duffy would take a fall or make up with Harper, Duffy's image and reputation is central to his sense of self identity, it always was even from his early days, and the way Harper and the CPC threw him under the bus and out of the Senate, a place he dreamed of being for decades, well the hit to that self image, ego, and self respect I think is going to be the dominant force in Duffy. Indeed, that is what makes Duffy so dangerous for the Harper CPC, because I do believe he has ammunition not yet seen, it is his nature as a political journalist to hang on to such, and I also believe that while CTV's national political desk chief he may have helped kill some damaging things for the Harper CPC but kept his own records of them just in case on top of anything he has on this scandal. It would certainly be consistent with Duffy's nature.

As to what he would have from this scandal, it is remarkable to note that once the scandal actually unfolded Duffy's story stayed consistent, it was the PMs and those around him involved he had the constant evolving storylines, It is also hard to understand charging Duffy with receiving a bribe but not Harper's Chief of Staff for giving that bribe to most Canadians, and you know that is going to be made hay of once again when this story reignites in the media.

No, I think at this point Duffy is out for blood as well as to clear his "good name". He really believes he did nothing wrong, and the hell of it is he may actually be telling the truth as he knows it. All the things he is charged with he could have been told was ok by the Harper team, anything to keep their star Senator happy. I believe this possibility because I watched Duffy be the ONLY Harper appointed Senator in trouble to get such special treatment from PMO, and if Duffy had kept his mouth shut, had not flashed that original e-mail around even for a few days/weeks longer this scandal would never have happened, his expences issue would have been whitewashed by the CPC Senate as it almost was. Thank you Lib Senator (I think it was Jim Cowan, not sure alas) on the steering committee for refusing to give unanimous consent to close this file as CPC Senators Tchachuk and Stewart-Olsen wanted and allowing this conspiracy to be successful.

I am so looking forward to watching Duffy get some of his own back, because he has always been a spiteful man when crossed, and no one crossed him more than Harper and the CPC did here. So whatever else I really doubt any possible settlement between Harper/CPC and Duffy at this point.

Simon said...

hi salamander...yes I must say I wonder what is happening with the Wallin investigation, because having her and Duffy buzzing around Harper's head like angry hornets would be a sight to behold. But Duffy is trying to speed up his trial, so it almost certainly will begin before next Spring, and the RCMP will almost certainly decide whether or not to lay charges against Wallin before that date as well. And good luck to Peter MacKay is he should try to pretend that Duffy doesn't exist. The real danger is that Duffy could die from a heart attack or a BBQ chicken prepared for him in the kitchens so I think I will say a short prayer for him each night before I go to bed. But seriously, the overall impact of all these scandals will hurt Harper and when so many people want him gone, will only help bring that day closer...

Simon said...

hi mizdarlin...yes it is ironic and I only hope our political parties will remind Canadians of what he said, and compare it to today's reality. And as for whether Harper will step down soon only time will tell. But I have to say that Reid's arguments are pretty persuasive. If by Christmas he realizes that he isn't able to boost his polls he just might depart in January to give his party a chance to get a new leader. Also remember that if he does decide to stumble on, and is seen to be dragging down his party, he could face a rebellion from those in his caucus, and from the movers and shakers who pull the strings behind the curtains...

Simon said...

hi Deb...I don't blame you for feeling cynical about the chances of justice been done. But Harper's relationship with the judiciary is so bad it's unlikely that he will get any help from them. Duffy and his lawyer are doing their utmost to get a speedy trial which can only be explained by Duffy's desire to get back at those he feel betrayed him. So I'm not as pessimistic as you are...

Simon said...

hi Scotian...I agree with you completely, Duffy will not take the fall for Harper. The only way he can hope to clear his name is by blaming him and the PMO gang. From what he has said and done so far it seems clear to me that he is out for revenge. And as you point out he probably has a lot of dirt he can spread around to ensure that if he goes dow, Harper will go down with him...

Simon said...

hi I explained above, Harper might throw his weight around in many places, but he has annoyed the judiciary with his attacks on "liberal judges" and the Supreme Court so I very much doubt he can do anything top interfere with the trial...

Simon said...

hi anon...since Duffy is facing some time in jail, I don't think he can be bought off. He needs to destroy Harper's credibility if he stands any chance of saving his own. So keeping quiet isn't an option. I can see Harper offering him money to try to delay the trial, but the fact that Duffy is going to extraordinary lengths to speed up the trial tells me that he wants to do the Cons as much damage as possible...

deb said...

Hi Scotian and Simon
I concede to both of you, as I havent paid much attention to Duffy from that POV, and you both are right, his ego is huge. I hope he does get his chance for revenge and manages to do maximum damage. Harper and his team need to go down.

e.a.f. said...

It is doubtful harper will resign, even if it means his party will face defeat at the polls. In my opinion, there are those within the con party who would see the problem, but stevie, not so much. he is convinced "god" is on his side and he will "solider" on for the good of the country. There are enough of them in cabinet that a "revolt" can not be staged. There is really no way to get rid of harper until he is "unelected". Given some of the practises of the con party, that maybe never.

Those within the party membership who would withhold funds for the upcoming election still can not dissuade harper or people like him. they are wedded to their ideology, just as firmly as ISIS is to theirs. (No I'm not suggesting harper and his herd are like ISIS, just that their attitudes to towards their believes are similar)

e.a.f. said...

The trial won't start in the Supreme Court of Canada, so it has a ways to go. Not all judges are "pissed" with harper and his herd. If Duffy winds up in front of one of them, the trial will be a little different. By the time the appeals are done, so will Duffy. As in dead and buried. harper and his herd, if not holding the reigns of the kingdom, they'll be heading some corporation from China. All will be well for them

Wallin will "skate" on this one and Brasseau, if he keeps his head in his books at university, may also "skate". Any "attack" on him may turn off the First Nation vote, the ones he hasn't already turned off. "attacking" Wallin will not be viewed by the public as a "nice thing". Duffy was polarizing, Wallin not so much.

e.a.f. said...

Duffy may also want the trial speeded up because he knows he won't live forever, but trial proceedings can.