Saturday, September 20, 2014
Will Mike Duffy Force an Early Election or Harper's Early Resignation?
A few days ago I told you that I honestly believe that Stephen Harper is preparing for an early election to try to avoid the trial of Mike Duffy.
In case the trial should start soon enough to be a factor in the next election campaign.
And some of my friends said they thought I was pushing it, that he just wants to be ready so he can strike ANYTIME.
And they may be right. He may be looking for a war so he can pose as a Great Strong Leader. Or waiting for a big trial so he can pit the rabble against the judiciary.
But like Scott Reid, I believe that nobody should underestimate the impact of the Duffy trial.
If Mike Duffy’s trial arrives before or during the 2015 federal campaign it will drive a cement nail straight through Stephen Harper’s hopes for re-election. The threat is so enormous that it may force the prime minister to consider a choice that most observers believe him to have already rejected: retirement from public life.
Because while this scandalous show hasn't played for a while...
One shouldn't forget how popular it was.
Do they recall the ferocious sun-blotted-from-the-sky public attention it commanded? Do they remember that Mike Duffy is in a desperate, breathless condition with nothing left to lose and every intention of causing harm? And do they recognize that this is a trial that could put a man Stephen Harper handpicked for the Senate behind bars, profiling PMO efforts to conceal his sins, fill his wallet, hush him up and bury the evidence?
Or underestimate how popular its new season could be. Or how devastating it could be for Stephen Harper's chances of winning the next election.
Imagine all of this unfolding in public – again. Except this time with added rigour and filled-in details. Not leaked out in spastic bursts through media reports, but explored carefully and transparently according to the rules of court. Imagine Nigel Wright’s testimony – as he’s compelled under oath to describe what conversations he had, with whom, and when.
Imagine the prime minister himself on the stand being questioned and challenged by Duffy’s defence lawyer about his version of events. Now imagine all of this happening during an election – or just short weeks before. Does any of that sound remotely survivable to anyone with a salt-shaker’s worth of political common sense?
Or how it could force Harper to choose between an early election or an early departure...
If Harper leaves before the trial – and the next election – he doesn’t eliminate all risk to the Conservatives, but he’d help them dodge the worst of it.Dalton McGuinty’s departure in Ontario didn’t erase the gas plants scandal but it certainly opened the door for Kathleen Wynne’s turn at renewal.
If Harper leaves at Christmas there’s still time for a March budget and an April leadership convention before a fall campaign.
And let's not forget, as I keep pointing out, that by Christmas Great Ugly Leader will have passed Brian Mulroney to become the sixth longest serving Prime Minister in Canadian history.
So why would he not leave in the purple glow of that dubious achievement?
Rather than stick around and risk being humiliated by Tom Mulcair, or Justin Trudeau.
There’s one other great advantage to departing – the certainty of not losing, which must be attractive for a prime minister who has led his party from literally nothing to minority government and to majority. Any thought of returning to opposition must seem dreadful.
Or Mike Duffy...
What will he do? I have no idea. And since he's so crazy desperate these days I doubt he knows either.
But what I do know is that we must start spreading the message that Stephen Harper is preparing an early election. Just so he can dodge the Duffy trial, like a criminal in a getaway car.
So that if he does call an early election before the trial begins, he can be tainted by that scandal anyway, right from the start.
Oh boy. I can't wait for the second season of Senategate. It should be even better than the first season and twice as SORDID !!!!!
I'm going to need a ton of popcorn eh?
Or two tons.
For it will be REALLY entertaining.
And it will have a happy ending...
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