Thursday, August 30, 2018

The Trans Mountain Pipeline and the Great Distraction



I haven't written much about pipelines because quite frankly I got pipelined out during the Harper years.

And also because I have always considered the fuss over the Trans Mountain pipeline to be just a distraction from the real war on climate change.

But now that a court has halted that project.

I just want to say that I couldn't be more delighted for the following reasons.



(1) It's a victory for some First Nations and can restore their faith in the law, which is vitally important in a country like ours.

(2) Now that the pipeline has been taken off the front burner, and will probably linger in the courts again for years, we can get serious about climate change, stop blaming governments and hopefully take a harder look at our own behaviour.

For while I'm personally opposed to any new pipelines, and wish the oil sands could be magically closed down tomorrow, people need to understand that in the grand scheme of things they are only part of the problem.

As even the leader of the BC Greens once admitted. 

Before Andrew Weaver became leader of the B.C. Greens, when he was a University of Victoria climate scientist, he crunched the numbers and found that burning all of Alberta’s oil sands “would be almost undetectable” on a global scale.

But while that's a problem that will soon take care of itself as the demand for oil falls steadily all over the world, what we need to do is concentrate on a far greater problem, our failure to green our economy.

In a country where political leaders have managed to make the essential tool for doing that, a carbon tax, a bad word. 

And the greed of Canadians allows them to get away with it.

You know, when I was in Scotland a couple of months ago I took this picture from a roadside restaurant on the way to Aberdeen...



And there are thousands of those giant turbines all over the highlands, and out at sea.

They don't ruin the beauty of the countryside as you can see from this view from my village.



For even though there are at least a dozen on the mountain ridge in the distance, you can hardly see them.

And that's not all, there are also underwater turbines, hydro power dams, solar power farms, and new wave and tidal power projects like this one.

Which together have placed Scotland within striking distance of powering the country entirely with green power, even though the country has oil.

Meanwhile in Canada, politicians like Doug Ford are tearing down wind farms and scrapping hundreds of renewable energy projects.

And although gas prices are about one third the price they are in Scotland, the owners of Canada's 25-million cars wail like babies if their cheap gas goes up five cents a litre.

And when the Mayor of Toronto tried to put a two-dollar toll on this highway leading into Toronto...



They screamed so loudly the Premier of the province squashed the idea.

As for our public transportation networks, they are practically third world because nobody wants to pay for improvements.

So in a country groaning with greed, it's so much easier to blame governments for pipelines instead of taking a hard look at our own behaviour.

Even though our failure to green our economy is the biggest threat to our future.

(3) While all of the above is incredibly depressing, the political effects of today's pipeline decision will have some positive effects.

For although it almost certainly means the end of Rachel Notley and her NDP, sadly she's now part of the problem. 

Justin Trudeau stuck his neck out to help her, and if that is how she repays him she deserves what she gets.

And while her replacement Jason Kenney will no doubt stomp his tiny feet and rage like a rabid ground hog when he becomes Premier, he will find it hard to use a court decision to take Alberta out of Canada.  

He will have to content himself with making life miserable, or more expensive, for people who live in B.C., and the rest of us should be able to ignore him.

But most importantly, by taking the pipeline issue off the front burner today's decision will make it a lot easier for Justin Trudeau and his Liberals.

For it's important to remember that Trudeau's position, is one that is favoured by most Canadians.



And that a great number of them, even in B.C., have no strong views one way or the other.



And that while activists on both sides may make a lot of noise, most Canadians are pragmatic.

They increasingly want governments to do more to tackle climate change. They see logic in pricing carbon. But the same folks also see value in continuing to gain economic benefit from the carbon resources we have, including building infrastructure to move the product to markets that need it.

So once the protests have died down, and more Canadians understand that the government bought a revenue generating pipeline not a white elephant, the issue should fade from the news.

It will then be easier to educate people about the need for a carbon tax without having to worry about that great distraction.

And since Trudeau is the only leader aggressively pushing a carbon tax, the probability of another Liberal majority will become even greater...



Only in Canada eh?

Oil may be a curse, we're all heading for a rude awakening.

But one day a pipeline decision is a problem.

The next day it's a winner...

18 comments:

e.a.f. said...

Well I care if Rachel Notley is no longer the Premier of Alberta because then they will have Jason Kenny and that will not only be bad for the environment but bad for the economy, the schools, the children, the health care, the sick, the road system, the ranches and farms, the First Nations, etc. We may not like Notley's stand on the pipeline but she is representing her constitutents in Alberta. She is doing her job. If she doesn't do it, then Jason Kenny will be the next Premier of Alberta and things will get a whole lot worse for the people of Alberta. It will also make things much worse for Trudeau. Right now he no longer has a friendly in office in Ontario. Although Notley is pro pipeline, there is a whole lot more she has in common with Trudeau than Kenny does.

In B.C. the NDP government has proposed leg. to out law private surgical clinics. We loose $16M a year from federal financing because of it. Now if Ford, and Kenny, who could come to office, and there is a shift in Quebec, who knows, there could go our public medical system. If Notley doesn't remain in office it will have very negative effects on us in B.C. and the rest of Canada. It isn't always all about the pipelines.

Europe is much different than Canada. WE have much greater distances to travel to work and find affordable accommodation. Yes, people would scream if they had to pay a toll on the highway because its $4 a day and if you've got a family, mortgage, bills, etc. that $4 a day starts to amount to something, something which will have to come out of somewhere and usually its things like trips to the dentist, food, heating the house, etc.

People communte great distances these days to get to work because of the high cost of housing. In B.C. the former government had a toll a bridge. it cost $7 a day to go to work. People couldn't afford it and started taking longer more time consuming ways of getting to work. then NDP came to office and removed the tolls. People now have at least an hr a day more to spend with their families. Until there is a real change in how cities and towns are planned with decent infrastructure and a whole load of affordable housing putting taxes on roads, bridges, gas is just another way of taxing working people into the ground. The rich can afford it, the working poor and middle class not so much.

AS to the court decision today, I live in B.C. and I'm happy about it. of course there are a whole lot of people including a number of First Nations who aren't happy about it. Yes, almost half of the First Nations who would be in the area of the pipeline are unhappy about the decision because their bands were going to financially benefit from the pipeline. the greatest resistance to the pipeline is in Metro Vancouver/Burnaby because that is where the tankers pass, through our waters. The pipeline on its own property build and maintained, might be fine, its the tanker traffic which will end in a spill in our oceans and destroy everything. So far there haven't been an accidents with the tankers because there are only going through the harbour once a week. I would suggest we could have 2 a week, with triple hulls and we would be o.k.

This isn't over yet, there will be appeals to the Supreme Court of Canada I am sure and even if it isn't the feds who take that up, it might be those who support the pipeline because you should see the price of gas in B.C. this weekend its over a $1.50 a litre. most likely $1.58 so if they bring the tar here and refine it here instead of exporting it, we would all benefit.

Anonymous said...

I’m not so sure Simon. Our horrid con media is pushing the narrative that Trudeau spent billions on a pipeline that won’t get built, even though he essentially bought a pipeline that is generating revenue.

Jay Farquharson said...

Canada bought a $110 million dollar, 57 year old pipeline for $7 billion.

As long as the twinning involves dilbit, it will probably never be built.

It's not going to drop off the front pages.

There's not going to be massive oil sales to Asia, just as there arn't gas sales, Site C demand,.... China just hit it's 20 year Green Energy Plan targets 12 years early.

Jackie Blue said...

What happened to finding "Common Ground"? That's the title of Justin's book and clearly that's what his worldview has always been. Less brutal in the literal sense but, the King Solomon approach. Instead this pipeline has him caught in another tug of war. He can't put an immediate kibosh on every drop of fuel lest it "tank" the economy, and he certainly doesn't want to go for the Trump "clean coal" approach that would turn the whole country into Venus even though it might save jobs in the "legacy" energy sector. So he tries to strike a pragmatic balance and still people are ready to slug him over it. Another steaming turd that Harper left on his doorstep, only to be followed by the even bigger dump load that is Jason Kenney the oily bigot. As e.a.f. said it isn't all about the pipelines, there's a bigger picture to be seen here than just one single issue, and Kenney like all cons would be an all-around disaster just like Ford. For sanity's sake, come to the table and work something out.

Anonymous said...

You're right, Canadians are absolutely fanatical about their gas guzzling cars. In China, you're only allowed to drive some days of the week depending on what your license plate starts with. Can you imagine if we tried that here? There would be riots in the streets.

Anonymous said...

So Notley and Kenney are blaming Trudeau for a court decision? Give me a break! He tried to get the pipeline done a.s.a.p. to keep Alberta happy and this is the thanks he gets? If Harper hadn't screwed with the NEB in the first place this would not now be an issue. I'm sure that Trudeau will get on this right away. It'll be fixed within less than 12 months. Appealing to the Supreme Court would only waste time and money.

UU

e.a.f. said...

and people wouldn't be going to work. In Greater Vancouver, some people drive from Chilliwack where there are affordable homes to Vancouver, every day and that is 119K each way. There is no public transit. We had 16 years of the B.C. Lieberals (conseravtives/harpercons) and so there is little transmit which works well outside of Greater Vancovuer and Greater Vancouver, houses start at a couple of million, o.k. perhaps a bulldoze special for 4$1.5M. It takes people an hour and half to get across North Vancouver because of the lack of roads and public transit. it can take people 90 minutes to travel to and from work each way, every day, using public transport. Day cares frequently don't stay open that long. its all well and good to talk about not using cars but you're first going to have to have affordable housing in metro centers and public transit which is efficient and quick. Many would use it if it was fast because it would save them money, but as it now stands certainly in the Lower Mainland, from Vancouver to Chilliwack, the cars will rule because that is all that there is. This isn't like in Europe were there is a lot of planning going on when the build new housing, they do things like put in transit of all sorts, then they build and then they build different types of housing which includes social and affordable housing. Here, not so much and people won't have it because they don't want to loose out on the profits their homes make them and they don't want to pay taxes for transit or affordable social housing. Bikes work nicely if you don't have snow up to your knees and there city isn't full of hills.

lagatta à montréal said...

They would get public transport if the government and the society were serious about it and about putting an end to carcentric development. And yes, that means planning; requiring public transport for all new developments.

You are not in an area where there is often snow up to your knees. There are hilly places in Norway with an impressive cycling rate and more snow than your part of BC. It is a matter of political will.

hinofan said...

Hi Noddy,
Well as one of the 9% of Albertans who oppose the pipeline I think it has been a great week for Canada.
First the pipeline ....we should be increasing refining capacity at home....building refineries to add value at home.
Second the refusal to give the US and outgoing President Peno Nieto the foisting of a tripartite deal onto the incoming new Mexican president who may be a
" new Lazaro Cardenas"!
And thirdly, and probably most important, the announcement of a deal selling the Hudson Bay Railway to Canadian interests and the renewed hope of getting the Port of Churchill opened again soon. Canada's only Arctic port and national embarrasment closed because Harper sold the Wheat Board to the Saudis!!!
In all a good week for Canada.
Probably poor for the oil cowboys and Ford and Ram truck sales though,
Yeeehaaa!

Mark said...

Given how much I normally enjoy your work, it's disheartening to see you fall for this pro-fossil fuel / Conservative talking point, regarding the quote mining job on Andrew Weaver.

Here's Andrew Weaver's actual stance on the pipeline, given in reaction to the court decision, taken from his own website:

“Coming off of the two worst wildfire seasons in B.C.’s history, it’s clear that we cannot continue down the misguided path of expanding fossil fuel infrastructure. We owe it to our children and grandchildren to begin the immediate transition to the low-carbon economy. B.C. is a leader amongst the provinces, adopting carbon tax increases that are ahead of federal requirements. Our Caucus is working closely with the B.C. NDP minority government to create a clean growth strategy that will further advance our efforts. I hope the federal government will now realize that there is an enormous opportunity to support B.C.’s leadership, rather than attempting to force our province to shoulder the huge environmental and economic risks that this project presents.”

Here:
http://www.andrewweavermla.ca/category/pipelines/

I know you think you're shielding your hero from criticism, but in the long run, repeating Conservative Party talking points will only help the Conservatives, not the Liberals.

Simon said...

Hi Jay...As log as there is no construction going on, the pipeline story won't get as much play as it might have received in the period leading up to the election. That's all I meant. Also I don't disagree with you that the notion that Asia is clamouring for our tarry oil is an illusion. So the pipeline will die a natural death. But in the meantime Jason Kenney won't be able to use the issue to stir up separatist sentiment in Alberta. And the main thing is that Alberta sign on to some program to reduce carbon emissions, because if they don't most of the other provinces won't either...

Simon said...

Hi Jackie...Once upon a time Canadians might have been able to find common ground but with the polarization created by ten years of Stephen Harper, and made worse by Trump, now it's almost impossible. I deeply regret that Canada became such a petro state not just because of the environmental aspects, but also because oil corrupts every political system it touches. I believe Trudeau is trying to keep the country together and using a single solitary pipeline with a limited lifespan to try to get the western provinces to start greening their economies. That strategy is looking a little shaky, but do they think Scheer and his Cons can do better?

Simon said...

hi e.a.f...I remember all too well the traffic jams in Vancouver during my time there. Although I also remember using my bike more than I was able to use it anywhere else in Canada. But yes, like most big cities in Canada public transportation is completely inadequate, and unfortunately if it's inadequate and uncomfortable people will not use it. And yes, where Canadians once appreciated the need for taxes, now they want the best for nothing, and complain loudly when they don't get it...

Simon said...

hi lagatta...you're right, it is a matter of political will. But you cannot lead a horse to water if the horse doesn't want to go. And in this country even a tiny carbon tax is enough to get people screeching that they are being ripped off. If we are not prepared to pay for a better more sustainable economy we will never get it...

Simon said...

hi UU...I don't know how this pipeline mess is going to be resolved. But I don't believe Trudeau should bear all the blame, for there is enough to go around, and nobody can accuse him of pushing that project for crass political gain. I hope that some kind of common sense will prevail, but when you become a petro state it's very hard to dig yourself out of one of those tarry ponds...

Simon said...

Hi hinofan...I too would like to see that tarry sludge refined here in Canada, but I have been told over and over again that is just not possible. So I have to accept that even though I don't, and never will.
As for the Mexican situation, again I don't know whether to celebrate or despair. But I hope that the new Mexican president will be more progressive than the one they have now, and if that is the case, I would rather negotiate a new deal with him
However, I am very glad that a deal has been worked out that will repair that broken down railroad and bring relief to the people of the north. And if we could recover the Wheat Board from the hands of the head choppers I would be absolutely delighted...

Simon said...

Hi Mark...I don't doubt that Andrew Weaver hates that pipeline even more than I do. It was not my intention to demean him in any way. And the only reason I included that quote about him is that I wanted to make a point, and get the attention of well meaning progressives like you and others. ;)
And that point is that as bad as the pipeline may be, it's not the end of the world, it will not last long. And if it's able to get Alberta and Saskatchewan to agree to a carbon tax it will be worth it. Because the greening of the economy is far more important than the fate of one solitary twinned pipeline. I realize this is like saying Jesus didn't rise from the dead, but somebody has to say it because it's true. Killing the pipeline may make some of us feel good, but if we don't get serious about greening the economy, the environmental damage will be even greater, and we will have no future...

Mark said...

"And that point is that as bad as the pipeline may be, it's not the end of the world, it will not last long. And if it's able to get Alberta and Saskatchewan to agree to a carbon tax it will be worth it."

That's where you're wrong.

It's not just a handful of "well meaning progressives," it's a lot of those who are actually knowledgable about the subject, including the guy you quote-mined in the original post.

The whole point of the pipeline, not just Transmountain, but all three of them, is to increase production of the tar sands.

If you tell me you're going to lose 30 pounds by Christmas, but between now and then, you're going to eat even more chocolate cake, then I'd call you a liar to your face, and I'd be right.

The carbon tax is a half measure, at best. But if it's the best we can get, then we at least have to not do anything that would reverse any gains we can get from the carbon tax. And let's be clear, increasing tar sands production really would reverse any gains we could realistically hope to get from a half-measure like the carbon tax.

Like me explain it simply.

Do you vote?

Did you know that you vote will only be 1 of 20,000 in a typical electoral district in Canada? Why bother voting? Surely Andrew Weaver would tell you there's not point in voting...

About that study of Andrew Weaver you claim to be "quoting," (and no, that's not an actual quote you're using,) the study in question looked at all carbon emissions from the whole planet. It's true that Canada is one of hundreds of countries on the planet, and the tar sands only account for part of Canada's carbon emissions, but it's like voting; we all have to do our part.

When it comes to Canada doing our part, the tar sands are the biggest single source of carbon emissions in Canada.

The only realistic way for Canada to meet our carbon reduction targets is for tar sands production to go down, not up.

"Killing the pipeline may make some of us feel good, but if we don't get serious about greening the economy, the environmental damage will be even greater, and we will have no future..."

I'm not just saying that because I think that blocking the pipeline will "make me feel good," I'm saying that because people who have studied the issue seriously have crunched the numbers, and this is what the experts are saying.

How can you talk about "greening" the economy while promoting pumping even more carbon into the atmosphere?

Seriously, that was some serious bullshit you tried to pull with that one.

And by the way, climate change is already causing serious economic damage. If we don't get a lot more serious about climate change soon, the economic damage will be far greater than the cost of not increasing tar sands production.

"I wanted to make a point, and get the attention of well meaning progressives"

If you really want to get the attention of progressives, spewing easily debunked talking points ain't gonna do in.