Monday, May 04, 2015

Alberta: New Poll Suggests the NDP is Heading for a Blowout Victory



With just a few hours to go before Albertans go to the polls, in what could be a historic election, the excitement continues to mount.

And while some experts are still predicting that Jim Prentice's election day machine will allow him to keep his job.

A new poll is predicting that Rachel Notley's NDP is heading for a blowout victory. 
With just a day to go until Albertans elect a new government, the province’s NDP appears poised for a history-making breakthrough. New Democrat Leader Rachel Notley is headed for the premier’s office — possibly with a majority. And Premier Jim Prentice’s Progressive Conservatives — the people behind 12 consecutive majority governments — are staring down the very real possibility of being relegated to third place.




Comparing this week’s results to last week’s polling, we see that the numbers are highly stable; our internal tracking shows a modest uptick in NDP support over the last two weeks. There are no signs of any last-minute shifts and the underlying regional and demographic patterns have not changed. These results are not a blip, in other words; even with differential turnout, the NDP are almost certainly going to win and are likely to capture a majority.

And what I find most encouraging is that the labour vote is showing its strength. And even those who support other progressive federal parties are planning to vote for the Alberta NDP.



This election shows the power of a unified progressive vote (bolstered by the labour vote). This election is unfolding in a jurisdiction which — in a reversal of the federal scene — features a split right-wing vote and a united progressive vote. Furthermore, we have seen a remarkable rejection of Progressive Conservatives by Alberta’s university- educated ‘elite’.

And of course this couldn't be worse news for Stephen Harper...



For losing his base to the hated socialists must be driving him CRAZY.

And he must surely fear what could happen to him in the next federal election.

As for me, as I've said before, I dare not raise my hopes, because I've been disappointed so many times before.

But something amazing is clearly happening, the citizens of Alberta are clearly showing a political courage other Canadians would do well to emulate. 

And choosing hope over fear.

So take that Jim Prentice...



And of course, for the last time in this historic campaign.

Go Rachel GO!!!!!!



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33 comments:

  1. Anonymous6:39 PM

    I hope she wins. If she doesn't and is soundly beaten, then Ekos and all the other pollsters were deceiving the whole time to whip up the old Con fear card to garner more votes and cheat in yet another election. Hope I'm wrong.
    JD

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    1. hi JD...well it is possible that the prospect of an NDP majority might scare some voters and get them to change sides at the last moment. But whatever happens it is a truly historic moment, Albertans deserve credit for not giving in to the politics of fear, and Rachel Notley has given all progressives in this dark Harperland something to cheer about...

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    2. Noah Patterson1:06 PM

      Threehundredeight.com (http://www.threehundredeight.com/) is traditionally very reliable in aggregating poll numbers, and they're showing a majority victory for the NDP, so I don't believe there is any pollster sleight-of-hand going on.

      At this point, the chances of a dramatic fear-based turnaround to voting Conservative seems very unlikely, there's so much positive momentum going now and voters will respond well to that. Electorate like to back a winner, and the chance for Alberta to cast off the ages-old "redneck" image is clearly a strong incentive.

      I wish I could witness Harper's private reactions when the results come in and his beloved Albertonia elects the NDP.

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  2. Anonymous7:50 PM

    Imagine, even Calgary may go NDP (Edmonton seems already to be in the bag). Not surprising to see the Con apologists like Den Tandt and Chantal Hebert already insisting that this does not mean that Alberta has shifted left. It is just a protest vote, they seem to insist. You know, even a protest vote against Harper in the upcoming election would be welcome by us "ABC" types, eh?

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    1. hi anon...yes I've read the pieces in the MSM so flat and so boring. But to me whatever happens the people of that province have sent us a mighty message of hope. If we work together, if we fight the Cons harder than ever, if we hold up the ABC banner, we can defeat the Harper Cons,and take our country back....

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  3. The greatest respect we can show another person is to leave them alone. In Alberta we live in the freest economy in N.A. With time, the NDP will put our economy in a straight jacket, and your average Albertan will live in a less free society. This is includes the gay community. I have no problem with someone being gay, but I do have a problem with regulating them to death, and taxing the hell out of them. The 'left' seems unable to respect the fact that society consists of individuals, rather you continually lump individuals into groups. When some of us refuse to clump individuals into artificial groups, you say we are racists, and bigots. It is respectful to a gay person, to remember first and foremost that they are a human being, with individual rights. Not everything is as it seems. As a WRP supporter, I would encourage gay individuals to vote for a party that defends your right to be left alone.
    The NDP, does not value free enterprise, and only considers you a cog in the wheel. They love everything to do with big government, and do not value your individual rights. You are used by them for photo ops.
    blessings

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    1. Anonymous9:53 PM

      isn't the same party in power for 43 years BIG GOVT

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    2. hi terry...I respectfully reject your negative vision of what an NDP government would do to your province. To suggest that a leader like Rachel Notley would make you a less free society is absurd. You have lived under the thumb of a corrupt dynasty which takes its order from Big Oil. And that's not freedom that's the tyranny of the rich. And as for your comments about the gay community, they're also absurd. Canada is not a collection of individuals, it is or should be a community not a jungle. And all of us in this country value our freedom. I hope the NDP does win so they can show you how wrong you are....

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    3. Anonymous10:47 AM

      Yep, I suspect that Prentice and the APC dynasty that was running Alberta for the past 43 yrs really depend on folks like you, Terry C.

      Did you notice that Norway was making $40-$50 a barrel of oil while the global price was around $100 a barrel. Contrast this with Alberta which was making an average of only about $4 a barrel while oil was about $100 a barrel. Did you also notice that Prentice had admitted that below $50 a barrel, Alberta was essentially making nothing (yes, zippo) a barrel? This means that Albertan, and Canadians, are essentially paying the multinationals to get the oil for free below $50 a barrel.

      No wonder Norway's fund from their oil earnings has reached a trillion dollars (yes, trillion) while Alberta's Heritage Fund, which was started 17 years BEFORE the Norway fund, is essentially bankrupt. And the ROC was meanwhile contributing $34B annually in subsidies to the oil companies (equivalent to the annual federal health transfer to all the provinces last year).

      Yep, you had your "freedom", Terry, while Prentice and his cronies were freely having their hands in the back pockets of Albertans, and Canadians (since they had to contribute the subsidies mentioned above).

      If "free" enterprise means ensuring that Prentice, the APC and their cronies continue to help themselves at taxpayers' expense, then I suppose you are correct that the NDP will not support this.

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  4. Anonymous9:21 PM

    I'd like to see Rachel Notely be successful Simon, but I don't see that happening. I think these polling numbers are a scam by pro-CON Albertans to get their narrow minded vote out. Those scary socialists is their mantra and that old adage of lies, damned lies and statistics is the game being played here. We saw that in BC.

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    1. hi anon...well as I told JD, it's possible that the prospect of an NDP majority may scare some voters into voting for the Cons again. But if I didn't believe so strongly in a progressive future for this country the Harperites would have ground me down long ago, and that will NEVER happen.If we lose in Alberta I'll still take cheer from this election, and keep working even harder for that vision of a kinder, gentler, better Canada...

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  5. e.a.f.9:42 PM

    We can only wait and see. I do think people in Alberta are tired of prentice and want to give him a message and they see Notley as the best way to do that. Albertans have never been fond of Liberals, so they'd rather send the message via the NDP.

    Who knows, if they get elected and run a decent government, they might be re-elected. of course poor ole Terry C. there, gee that is a grasp at straws. That's so over the top not even the B.C. Lieberals use that tone any more.

    The Alberta Conservatives have not delivered as promised, nor will they, if re-elected. It will be business as usual. Prentice had an opportunity to do so and didn't. He called an election while 2 parties didn't have leaders. Never a nice thing to do. IT says something about him and his party and one of those things is, he was willing to spend $23M in tight economic times to roll the dice. Well he didn't win so far.

    Good luck to Notley and lets hope all Albertans do what people do in P.E.I.--vote. People in P.E.I. participate more in the voting process than any other group in Canada.

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    1. hi e.a.f...well you live in BC, so on a clear day you can see Alberta, like Sarah Palin could see Russia. ;)
      And as I said in my post, I don't dare raise my hopes too high. But I'm very proud of Albertans and all progressives in that province, for it has been an amazing campaign, and wherever hope can defeat fear is inspiring to me...

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  6. The NDP forming Government in Alberta,... Well I never thought I'd live to see the day. If the NDP do win, they will have the work cut out for them, and it will not be easy. I wish them all the luck and success in the world.

    And PS, I am far from an NDP supporter, but come this Federal Election I will be giving them serious consideration, a long with the Greens

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    1. hi Grumpy Hobbit...yes it does seem to be a dream. And you're right it won't be easy. But at least if the NDP are elected Harper will have to battle both the Alberta and Ontario governments. And just thinking of him sweating in his closet tonight, makes me feel great. as for the partisan battle, I have always said that my favourite colours are red, orange, and green. And I dream of seeing the all one day united in one massive progressive party that will crush the Cons into oblivion...

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  7. SubC from AB11:03 PM

    So far so good. I'm a committed federal Liberal, but going orange this time (like so many of our friends and yes, federal LPC supporters do exist in AB).
    The next 24-36 hrs will be the most interesting in recent Canadian history (at least since '95 referendum and 2011 orange wave). Maybe we could send the old hick/redneck AB stereotypes to the trash can of history!!

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    1. hi SubC...congratulations for putting the progressive cause before narrow partisanship. I will cheer an NDP victory in your province just as enthusiastically as I am celebrating tonight's Liberal victory in P.E.I. For every progressive victory brings us closer to the day when we can free our country. And yes, I think after what has happened, we can dump those old stereotypes into the garbage can of history. Long live the New Alberta !!!!!

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  8. Keep in mind most polls predicted BC's Liberals (headed by Christy Clark) would go down to defeat. Didn't happen. The only poll that counts is the election day poll. But best of luck, Rachel!

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    1. hi David...well the final result will teach you gloomy pessimist ... ;)

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  9. May the 4th be with you.

    https://twitter.com/davewilsonmla/status/595230690750369793/photo/1

    And on May 5th, vote NDP if you live in Alberta. 8-)

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    1. https://twitter.com/albertaNDP/status/595237870140395520/photo/1

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  10. woot woot woot! Boom Boom the witch is dead.

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    1. hi Steve...you mean the king is dead.... ;)

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  11. http://www.cbc.ca/news/elections/alberta-votes/jim-prentice-resigns-after-orange-wave-sweeps-alberta-1.3062789

    Prediction: The by-election in the Calgary-Foothills riding will be won by the NDP candidate.

    Can this Tory defeat/decimation in Alberta be repeated with federal Tories in the October federal election?

    I hope so! 8-)

    David

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  12. The NDP won, landslide:)

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    1. hi Deb...yes, and isn't it wonderful? It was over so quickly I almost missed the magic moment. But what a moment it was...

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  13. Can you imagine Harper ever saying to Canada's First Nations: "I am looking forward to consulting with you and learning from you."

    http://globalnews.ca/news/1981421/rachel-notley-and-ndp-win-alberta-election-2015/

    Watch above: NDP’s Rachel Notley gives victory speech after Alberta’s 2015 election

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  14. As an Albertan who voted WRP (Jean is actually in my riding) I do have to say I don't think the NDP are as scary as Prentice tried to make them out to be. On some issues WRP and NDP are actually in agreement. Comparing the Alberta NDP with the NDP of Bob Rae (under which I grew up) is also a bit silly. The NDP here tend to function more like a Liberal Party. At least I don't fine them as Left as other NDP governments I've encountered when living in other provinces. The PC's are (or were) more like what would be considered a Liberal Party in many other provinces and the WRP are the Conservative option.

    Alberta political history shows that when governments are kicked to the curb here it isn't done in a subtle fashion. Certainly the gains by both NDP and WRP will add an interesting new dynamic to provincial politics.....so much for the stereotype of Alberta politics being boring I suppose. In some ways the NDP election was Albertans' sound rejection of years of Tory bs and nonsense.

    I know that I speak for many in Fort McMurray when I say that I am tired of my city and region being crapped on and seen as the anti-christ. Not everyone here is a roughneck cowboy. Hell, I don't even own a gun or a jacked up truck. At any rate, it is nice to see our region with more political clout in Edmonton now. There has long been a sense here that we've been ignored for far too long despite PC claims to the contrary.

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    1. hi Way Way Up....It certainly was quite an election, and I don't think the NDP is scary at all. I think Rachel Motley has her feet well anchored in the province, knows that Alberta is an energy province, and will act accordingly. I think she will just bring a more rational approach to development, and push for other industries to make it less dependent on oil. But yes, nobody will ever call you rednecks again, and the province is leading the country to change. You guys are golden (or orange) now... ;)

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  15. I should add that that sound you heard Tuesday night was Ezra Levant's fucking head exploding :P

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    1. hi Way Way Up....yes I was thinking of old Ezra myself. I don't know if you've checked out his Rebel Media site recently, but the so-called Rebel Commander has been going wild. He made a video in a clothing store in Texas the other day, where he was buying himself a cowboy costume. And if I get any excuse I will run it because it has to be seen to believed. And I'm only surprised the salesman didn't pull out a gun and shoot him... ;)

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    2. Hi Simon, yes, I'm aware of Lezra's site. It's so over the top though I don't know how anyone can watch it. While I consider myself a conservative (but not in the Alberta PC mode) it is tempered with a certain amount of pragmatism and this goof is just too much. I have a connection to WRP leader Brian Jean through a friend of mine and I'm tempted to ask him what his opinion is of the guy. I'm honestly dying to know. I have the feeling that Lez is just too far out there for the Opposition Leader here. His name certainly never came up at all here through the entire campaign. Among the more pragmatic small "c" conservatives here, admitting you listen to Lezra's crap would be akin to admitting to a cop that you eat small children for breakfast.

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  16. Anonymous12:15 PM

    Well my friends. It is Terry C again. So far the NDP "accidental" government is a decided failure. It will serve as a learning lesson for the younger generation of voters in this here province. Either Kenny or Jean will need to do much work to restore the Alberta advantage. Hoping for Kenny administration of 20 years. I have faith...

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