Thursday, April 21, 2011

The NDP the Most Popular Party in Quebec?

Well all I can say is if Jack Layton is flying like a kite these days, tonight he must be in the clouds.

Because a new CROP poll suggests the NDP is now the most popular party in the Quebec.

Jack Layton's New Democrats have 36% support compared to 31% for the Bloc, and 17% for the Conservatives.

Once the dominant federalist formation in Quebec, the Liberal Party is just a shadow of its former self receiving only 13% support.

Even among French-speaking voters who determine the winner in most ridings, the NDP is nipping at the heels of the Bloc with 34% support compared to 38% for Gilles Duceppe's Bloc. The Conservatives only receive 14% and the Liberal Party 11%

And so does EKOS.

The Liberals do a bit better in the EKOS poll, but in Quebec I would tend to go with CROP.

It seems hard to believe eh? But it sure does explain why Gilles Duceppe was going after Jack so hard  this evening.

Duceppe was trying out a new image this evening, comparing the three federalist parties to a hockey trio. On the right wing, Stephen Harper, Michael Ignatieff in the centre, and Jack Layton on the left wing. "When those three score, it's always in Quebec's goal!" Duceppe exclaimed. 

"Jack Layton plays against Quebec, but he plays with a smile."

Why do Quebecers, especially younger ones, like Jack so much? Because he's against the war in Afghanistan, he has attacked the dirty oil sands, he was the only leader who said he'd be willing to form a coalition that included the Bloc.

He shares their social democratic values, he's a nice guy, when he told them he could become Prime Minister they believed him.

And because those younger voters are tired of the same old, same old, and they want something different. So much for Harper's separatist conspiracy.

What could it mean? I think I'll wait until tomorrow to answer that one. Because it has both good and bad implications. It could gain the party new support in English Canada, but it would just about kill the Liberals, and it could help the Cons.

A CROP poll of three Quebec City ridings for Le Soleil and La Presse makes this point. In Beauport-Limoilou, Conservative incumbent Sylvie Boucher is at 35 per cent, Bloc candidate Michel Letourneau is at 32 per cent, and NDP candidate Raymond Côté is at 20 per cent. It's a very close race, but every vote the NDP takes from the Bloc is one less the Conservatives need to win.

Or at least so hopes that old Con flack L. Ian MacDonald.

But one way or the other, hang on to your hats everybody.  

Jack...Jack...can you see British Columbia from up there? Have you bumped into Tommy Douglas yet?

Because this could be a game changer...

Recommend this post at Progressive Bloggers


  1. The NDP has an amazing team of people: Nathan Cullen, Denise Savoie,Libby Davies the guy in Nelson area,and many more
    In my riding in BC Edith Loring K is First Nations and NDP
    She won't win but she is an excellent worker and speaker.
    Tonite at all candidates in Sidney BC at a packed hall in heavy seniors area, the audience hootd and cheered for Elizabeth May and there was a small whimpher of applause for Mr Lunn, Minister of Sports.
    He ranted on and on about a coalition with a dangerous separatist party.

  2. liberal supporter7:38 AM

    The Harper slide may finally be on.
    Quebec, as usual, is defusing Harpers biggest argument, about the coalition with separatists.
    If NDP and Liberals alone constitute a majority, then Steve is toast.

  3. Anonymous8:38 AM

    As a person living in a riding where the NDP don't even have a pulse, the candidate doesnt show up to events or campaigns I don't see them leaping past the Libs. I do fear the NDP attacks on the libs will create a Conservative minority which Jack will take the blame for, that will get ugly.

    OH for a split where the liberals and ndp can form a Gov with May's support but don't need the Bloc , that would be truly glorious

  4. hi jan...thanks. I thought you might like that one. ;)

  5. hi Oemissions...yes they do have some excellent people, although Jack must be given most of the credit for the NDP's amazing rise in Quebec. He has been awesome. I thought his performance in the French debate was brilliant. If voters in English Canada could jump on this bandwagon who knows where it could take us...

  6. hi liberal supporter...yes it does put a spoke in Harper's arguments about a coalition with the dangerous separatists. How dangerous can they be when so many are prepared to jump over the side of the separatist steamboat, and support a federalist party? But of course he will try. Next week they will pull out all the stops, and it's going to be ugly...

  7. hi fear is that if the NDP and the Liberals divide the vote equally, the Cons could come up the middle and win a majority. But on the other hand, if we hold him to a minority I wouldn't have any problem forming a coalition with the Bloc. It would be better as you say if the Liberals and the NDP could form a government without them. But anything that keeps the Cons out of power for a long time...hopefully good enough for me... :)