Saturday, September 26, 2015

Jason Kenney and the Vanishing Ethnic Vote

As you know the Harper regime has expended a huge amount of energy pandering to the so-called ethnic vote.

And nobody more than Jason Kenney, the man they call Mr Curry in a Hurry, who likes to jet across the country hitting every religious festival and ethnic banquet between St John's and Victoria.

In relentless pursuit of the ethnic vote, wherever he can find one. At the buffet table, or in a stairwell bearing a pizza. 

So I can't help but think that this move by Justin Trudeau must have felt like a kick in the stomach. 

Justin Trudeau has made his biggest play to date for immigrant voters who have been key to Stephen Harper’s electoral success. Mr. Trudeau unveiled on Friday a package of policies to make it easier for immigrants to sponsor relatives abroad to join them in Canada, aimed at presenting his party as more open to newcomers than the governing Conservatives have been.

And sure enough it was. Kenney practically exploded. 

Conservative cabinet minister Jason Kenney, architect of many of the government’s immigration changes, says voters won’t be swayed by Trudeau’s promises. He says new Canadians are smart and sophisticated and those who came to Canada during the previous Liberal government remember how broken the immigration system was.

No doubt outraged at the very thought that the Spawn of the Anti-Christ should dare to steal HIS people.

But sadly for Kenney, it turns out that while the Cons did win a lot of the ethnic vote during the last election. And it did help give them a bloody majority. 

This time in many of the ridings where they won that majority the results could be quite different. 

HIS people are threatening to abandon him and the Harper Cons.

And charts like that one, and cruel realities like this one:

Over time, new Canadians become more integrated into Canadian society. As they do, their ethnic identities become less important in determining how they might vote. As second, third and fourth generations replace the original immigrants they develop political views they share with others outside of their ethnic sub-groups. 

Whether they are environmentalists or social justice advocates, free traders or anti-tax conservatives, their ethnic identities have progressively less influence on how they vote and view politics.

Must be driving the Minister of Everything, including buffets and banquets, absolutely crazy.

Or giving him a really bad case of indigestion...

To think that all that work, and all those pounds, were for NOTHING.

The so-called ethnic vote would rather be treated like the Canadian vote.

Surprise, surprise.

And it's on our side.

Gawd. Poor Mr Curry in a Hurry.

His future doth look bleak...

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  1. Anonymous7:19 AM

    yeah and I think there was going to be a landslide NDP victory in BC was it?
    How did that turn out according to the "polls"?

  2. Anonymous8:25 AM

    Simon, remember sometime ago I had wondered who were the Chinese Canadians who were voting Conservative because most of those I know are NOT voting for them? Further, many did not vote for them over the last few elections. Well, these projections seem to indicate that my feelings were correct.

    Kenney is correct on one thing: many of these people are smart and sophisticated. That is why they know a corrupt, deceitful, incompetent and authoritative government when they see one. Remember also that many of them had left countries with such governments. That is why they will not vote for more of the same. Being polite to Kenney is not the same as giving him their votes.

  3. ffibs9:10 AM

    In the previous electionkenney received the highest percentage of out of province donations,
    Basically he showed up at the local ethnic group as a speaker handing out an award to the local leader, or presenting some cash for a local event, celebration etc. sand walk away with tax fefuctible donations from a large number of the attendees.
    That stopped when Alexander took over immigration. In fact the performance of Alexander might have more to do with this change than the changing of the demographic .
    You can't fool all the people all of the time

  4. Guessing he'll have to start paying for his groceries like the rest of us....

  5. re: vanishing votes prodding my tiny , peasized brain

    This morning , while walking the dogs, it occurred to me that the reformatories have lost a lot of rural support. It has been a given that rural ridings are proportionally more powerful due to low populations. The common conclusion is that the cons have a " more efficient " vote due to their rural members. Polling firms adjust for this, especially when predicting local riding leads.

    In fact, the robocallers have lost a lot of rural support . In Atlantic Canada, ridings are 2/3 rural, but the reformers are down 10 seats. Quebec ridings are 50% rural, but few ridings are trending blue. In Ontario, the assumption holds.
    In Manitoba, the reformacons may lose some rural strength. Sask will probably see no change but redistribution may mean a loss of a couple of sears in Alberta. Tories are loosing rural seats in BC and the North.

    It looks like the reformatories lead in 61 rural seats, the NDP in 56 and the Liberals in 29. The assumption , made by pollsters and pundits, that the con vote is more efficient seem questionable as do a lot of riding level predictions. Adjustments made to vote share when predicting seat totals may also be just as questionable.

    Will the reformatories get 20 more seats than either of the other parties with the same vote share. I doubt it.

  6. Some of the ethnic vote may not like the Cons attitude towards the refugees trying to ce to Canada

    The ethnic vote may have seen the fraud committed by the Cons and decided they wanted an honest government

  7. Anonymous2:06 PM

    Looks like Jason 'Canada's Chubbiest Army Cadet' has been promoted to Jason 'Canada's Chubbiest Pizza Rat'.

  8. The niqab controversy and the "old stock" Canadians remarks are not likely to endear many new immigrants to the Cons. Dog whistle or not that 'old stock' remark must have done some damage. I thought it was a beer, myself.

  9. Anonymous10:05 PM

    To be fair, the Liberals think the ethnic vote is theirs to return to the fold. And the projections shown jibe with that.
    These constituencies were sweet-talked and bought before by the Cons, and the same thing is happening now, but with Justin Trudeau as the piper.

  10. Anonymous11:30 PM

    The new Canadians voting conservative are the highly religious and/or stupidest ones.

    1. Anonymous4:20 PM

      Same can be said for the old stock Canadians too, no? You must have heard the saying that not all Cons are stupid but all stupid people are Cons. :)