Tuesday, July 09, 2019
The Desperate Cons and the Rise of the Liberals
Andrew Scheer has rarely looked and sounded so desperate. The creepy smile is gone.
He's making wild promises.
Even ones like that one that could kill thousands of Canadians, from babies to seniors.
And I can only imagine what Scheer and his ex-Rebel campaign manager Hamish Marshall must be saying or screaming to each other as the wheels seem to be coming off their campaign.
For after months of riding high they do seem to be heading in the general direction of The Abyss.
The latest Nanos federal ballot tracking has the Liberals at 34.6 per cent, followed by the Conservatives at 30.4 per cent, the NDP at 17.9 per cent, the Greens at 8.8 per cent, the BQ at 4.9 per cent and the People’s Party of Canada (PPC) at 1.6 per cent.
And it is a dramatic change.
Up until a month ago most polls had the Cons leading the Liberals, and Nanos had Andrew Scheer narrowly ahead of Trudeau (26.7 to 26.5) as preferred Prime Minister.
But not any longer.
Nanos tracking has Trudeau as the preferred choice as PM at 31.5 per cent of Canadians followed by Scheer (22.2%), Singh (9.6%), May (7.1%) and Bernier (2.4%).
So what happened?
The pundits have all kinds of reasons to explain the rise of the Liberals.
The end of the blanket coverage of the fake SNC Lavalin scandal, the return of female supporters, and the negative effect the Con hog Doug Ford is having on his little puppet Scheer.
But I like to think that the main reason that Scheer is tanking is that Canadians are finally starting to take a closer look at him.
And the more they look, the less they like him, or think he's fit to be prime minister.
And the best news?
We haven't even started to bombard Scheer with our attack ads, and when we do there won't be much left of him, what with his plans to carve up medicare, slash pensions, restrict the rights of women and gay people etc etc.
While after the way they have been attacking Justin Trudeau for more than two years, the Cons will just look like more of the same.
In other news, I'm on holiday now. So I can do some of the things I like to do far from the madding crowd.
Or just enjoy the colours of the season in my neighbourhood.
But for the first time in a long time I feel I can relax.
Canada is once again the country I know and love.
The ugly Con show is almost over, and I'm now confident again the nightmare we have endured will have a happy ending...
Labels: Andrew Scheer, Election 2019, Justin Trudeau, Nanos poll
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Until Fife, WK et al start up again. The Libs are not only fighting the CPC they are also battling the Canadian media.
Not sure how credible Mainstreet Research is, but they also have the Liberals with a narrow national lead. According to their latest poll, the Tru Grits have a wide margin in all the provinces that matter (except B.C. where it's tight due to -- grr -- vote splitting).
What I do want to know is why Nanos decided to paywall their regionals, and why Grenier requires "publicly available" data and won't just put them in the Poll Tracker anyway. Quito Maggi had the same question and has gotten the runaround so far. Hm, something's up. In any event, now's not the time to get complacent. Get out the vote, strategic ABC in October and work overtime like you're 20 points down.
BTW: Part of that desperation (a new low, even for the Cons -- at least all Harper did was try and paint Trudeau as a terrorist sympathizer) is the trollbots' attempted smearing of Trudeau as being associated with the Epstein debauchery. This may be why. From a Daily Beast article: One of Harper's BFFs is also one of Epstein's, and this whole depraved mess may be hitting too close to home...
Epstein had also leaned heavily on my ex-husband’s uncle, Conrad Black, to try to exert his influence on me, which was particularly unwelcome, given that Black happened to be my ex-husband’s boss at the time.)”
How curious that Trump just pardoned Black and Harper has reared his ugly head again. I'm still not a fan of Michael of the Snake, but it would appear there's a lot more to the rot in Canadian media than just partisan bias and oil. Postmedia is corrupt. Postmedia is the "journalistic" equivalent of venereal cancer. Postmedia is a front for Trump and the activities of his abhorrent ilk. Postmedia needs to die.
saying you are for more pollution is not a strong platform. Since Naticoke has been closed we have not had a single bad air day. What was that worth?
Mercenary Stephenson is already starting up with more tired crap about Norman. As though Forkgate, Snubgate and Judgegate weren't bad enough, Goebbels News has sunk to a new low with a clickbait headline about the "well-known prime minister" in the Epstein files. Cue (Q?) the frothing QAnon mob calling for Trudeau's head and demanding the RCMP investigate his teaching career, inventing tinfoil speculation that this is the "truth" JWR wanted to testify about, posting the phone number of child welfare agencies and demanding that Trudeau's kids be seized from the home... on and on and on it goes, where it stops, nobody knows.
It's one thing for online cranks like Spencer Fernando, Tom Quiggin and the like to rile up the base in the RWNJ echo chamber, putting the "Q" in quarantine. It's quite another for a supposedly mainstream "news" outlet to pander to Pizzagate out in the open and pass it off as credible "journalism." You'll not find a more wretched hive of scum and villainy.
I wouldn't be too relaxed. Scheer is a doofus, with doofus handlers doofussing their way to obscurity; but Harper looked very doofussy himself in the period before the election that brought him to power, as I am sure you will recall. 2008 I suppose? I digress.
JT is a very decent, honourable man, leading a G7 government to enormous domestic achievements with very little more than a smile and an ability to look sincere. It speaks well for our sweet, silly country that so much prosperity can come from so much collective good will; and a leader who - for all his faults at judgement - can manage to allow cabinet stars to make great strides to improve our means...
Gotta breathe here.
While I hope your optimism pays off, with PostMedia owning so many local newspapers and filling them with their anti-Trudeau bias on a daily basis, I worry that the Cons will slip in again. Ford's extra long recess will help Scheer as the buffoon will be mostly out of the spotlight for the next 3 months but people are heavily influenced by the media and Trudeau needs to come at the Cons hard this time because we know they and their horrible media friends will.
Hi anon @6:54 PM...The only reason the Liberals aren't way ahead of the Cons is because of the obsessive way the Con media covered the fake SNC scandal every day for twelve long weeks. But I think because the media overdid it, they won't be able to repeat that in the three months left before the election. Also people like Warren Kinsella have lost what little credibility they had, and Bob Fife is just about ready to be wheeled into retirement having exposed himself as one more tired old Trudeau hater...
Hi Jackie....The political situation in this country is so rancid, I am tempted to quarantine myself from social media for at least a week. I would normally be in Scotland at this time where it might as well be another planet. But I just got installed my new video editing software so I'm going to make a few little videos to try to take my mind off things, as well as trying to spend as much time on and in the water as possible. And of course, as I have done for years, I will keep praying for the death of Postmedia...
Hi Scott...I don't underestimate the Con threat, but as I'm sure you know I try to be as optimistic as possible to encourage rather than depress progressives. I also think that Canada has been corrupted by greed and racism, and when I look at the political scene here and in other countries, having a decent person like Trudeau as PM is something to celebrate. And the visceral hatred so many seem to feel for him stinks of bigotry and fascism in my opinion, and should be a warning about where this country is heading. I should also add that I just saw some more Abacus numbers that suggest that the Trudeau Liberals are leading with all generations except the Boomers, which explains so much...
Hi aka Joe...As I told Scott, I am a very optimistic person, I know no other way to live. But you're right to be concern d about the influence of the media which is totally biased against the Trudeau Liberals. I just finished reading a very interesting study of how Big Oil is involved in the battle to bring Trudeau down and I hope to share it with you soon because it's scary stuff. And yes you're also right when you say that Trudeau and those who support him need to attack the Cons like they never have before. Being good and decent are the qualities I most admire, but not when ugly Cons are trying to slit your throat..l.
Hi Steve...You're right, in a sane world arguing for more pollution should get you run out of town. But the Cons package that as saving you money, and for many greedy grubbers that's all that counts....
Hi Jackie...lMercedes Stephenson is an absolute joke, but she is only following orders. Her bosses want to elect Scheer so he can kill the CBC and free up a lot of advertising money to boost Global's profits, and of course reduce their personal income taxes. It's the sordid truth that nobody dares admit, and it couldn't be more disgusting....
Over time Kinsellout has gone from liberal member with a tidy earner in hate to raving reformatory happy to cosy up to racist scum for selfies. During this metamorphosis from butterfly to slug his readership and commentators changed. Today they are pretty much just right wing nut jobs.
Appealing only to the Harper/Bernier/Ford ' base ' Wornout is now preaching only to the choir and has lost any ability to influence the normal part of the electorate.
Hi Anon @6:54
Re: The Libs...are also battling the Canadian media
I'll say. There is scarcely a recommended reading sent my way, any given day, with the name Trudeau in it, that I'd even dare click on the headline, because it's so suggestively nasty, petty, or pathetic. Positive articles with his name in the headlines, no matter what he does, are rare enough to be remarkable. Most days there's not a one.
That's a disgusting state of affairs for the THIRD PILLAR of ours or any democracy.
Canadian media should be ashamed.
It would have us believe nobody supports or should support our Prime Minister/Trudeau and nothing he does is right and nothing is right about him.
The polls are all we have to put the lie to it. Canadians are not fooled.
So, good as the indications are right now, we have a ways to go.
I still count on the Canada I've known; Canadians' fundamental decency and sense of fairness, and their common sense.
Re: Trudeau Liberals are leading with all generations except the Boomers
Just want you to know that I'm one Boomer who proudly bucks the trend. Long liberal and a Liberal.
If that makes me exceptional, well, yes, I am. ;)
(Although I personally know several others like myself.)
Hi Scott we are sharing cross platforms like a big conglomerate. I wonder if the Montreal Simon fans would be 4HF?
Have faith, people are not stupid. Although I worry about the Kenny effect. In my world many new immigrants are not well informed and Kenny is a good salesperson for evil.
Hi Brawnfire....Neither you nor any of the other boomers who grace the comment pages of this blog have to prove their progressive credentials. They are more than obvious and I give thanks for them. And you're not alone either. According to the Abacus numbers, boomers favour the Cons over the Liberals by a very narrow margin of 39% to 35%. So it's not like you can generalize about them or any other generation. I celebrate them all, and the only reason I ever mention generational results is because I hope that their peers can reach out to those favouring the Cons and convince them to change their minds. Now for the really good news. I saw a promo tonight for the excellent PBS program The American Experience, and it said that next week they will be doing a documentary on Woodstock. I have seen the Woodstock movie about fifty times at least, I love it so much. But the documentary looks GREAT so hopefully we can both watch it, and both celebrate your generation....😎
Thanks for letting me know about the PBS doc. (I might have missed it.)
So, while I'm enjoying, I'll think of you, and raise a glass.
The following article provides some insight on how and why populism is shaping the Canadian political landscape. It also points out how the Cons are enabling and unholy alliance between the populist supporters and the "self made" opportunists who are quite happy to see the promises of low taxes make the lives of those left behind even more miserable in a self reinforcing circle. Fortunately (or unfortunately in Scheers case) Dougie exposed the rotting core of this unholy alliance between the miserable and those that derive power by making their lives even more miserable.
I read Frank's article, RT. It was very good, and chilling. My further concern is that the all-or-nothing left-populists will fragment the vote enough for the Con-populists to plow through the middle. The cosplay revolutionaries are more than happy to "heighten the contradictions" as long as they get to claim the mantle of moral righteousness while in opposition and crush the "neoliberal center." Crooked Hillary/Crooked Justin wasn't pure enough, so they say. That kind of absolutist, myopic thinking landed us with Trump and children in concentration camps. I can't reiterate enough that everyone needs to unite ABC and vote strategically to avoid a repeat of the U.S. in 2016.
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