Tuesday, October 29, 2019

Why Andrew Scheer Probably Won't Be Able To Save His Job



I don't know why Andrew Scheer doesn't accept his fate graciously, or at least stoically, like a good religious fanatic should.

Accept that even after the foulest campaign in Canadian history, and the all out support of our shabby Con media, he STILL couldn't beat Justin Trudeau.

Recognize that after being exposed as a gross misogynist, a vile homophobe, a serial liar, a callous climate change denier, and an Ugly American, there is no way he can make a come back. And should resign immediately.

But that's not what's happening.



Instead it seems that if the Cons want to replace the humiliated and dilapidated  Scheer, they're going to have to pry the leadership from his cold frigid fingers.

For he is going nowhere, and is even asking or begging for a "clear mandate." 

Andrew Scheer is hoping for a “clear mandate” when his party’s grassroots gathers in Toronto in April to decide the Conservative leader’s political fate. 

If more than half of the delegates vote in favour next April, the party would be plunged into its second leadership contest in four years.


But sadly for him that might be hard, and I bet he's sweating like that pig man. For the Cons might be the party of the religious fanatics.

A solid majority of Andrew Scheer’s new 121-member Conservative caucus have the blessings of Canada’s most hardline anti-abortion groups.

But a lot of other Cons are said to be sharpening their knives.

Which should be enough to make anybody nervous, or paranoid....



And as Michael Harris points out, April can be the cruelest month. 

It is said that April is the cruelest month. If T. S. Eliot has it right, that’s when Andrew Scheer will realize that only the winner gets the real cigar. April 2020 is the date set for the automatic review of Scheer’s leadership. About that time Scheer will learn that if you want loyalty, buy a ferret. No matter what anyone is saying now, leadership politics has just one rule: only winners need apply.

And since Scheer is no winner, just a Stephen Harper puppet...



Scheer did nothing to persuade Canadians that he was not Stephen Harper’s sock puppet. He ran the campaign straight out of Harper’s playbook, from immigration fear-mongering, tax cut fetishism, and fake deficit phobia all the way to pipeline envy. And he used a lot of Harper’s own people to do it.

And since most Canadians don't trust Harper, they'll never trust Scheer, especially since the Ugly American is also a serial liar.

So unless the Cons ditch both of them, they'll never win where it counts. 

As Philippe J. Fournier notes in Maclean’s, “among the 60 electoral districts with the highest population density in Canada, the Conservatives won a grand total of zero.” In other words, the route to victory these days is by appealing to the educated, urban and socially progressive, not a cabal of gun-loving, climate denying, xenophobic, northern Republicans who have never seen a social program or a foreign aid plan that they didn’t want to cancel.

In places like Toronto, where the writing is on the wall, or the map. 

The map couldn’t be simpler (though the work that went into creating it was doubtless complicated!). It’s colour-coded, and shows, by riding, where the parties did better or worse in 2019 compared to 2015. Green means better, red means worse … the darker the colour, the stronger the trend. And in the essential ridings in and around the City of Toronto (including its 905 suburbs), the Conservative map shows a whole lot of red.

And the message couldn't be clearer...



If the Conservatives can’t win the Toronto area with Scheer as leader, they can’t win, period.

And since Toronto is the place where I work and play, I couldn't be more delighted.



I don't really know what I'm going to do next, now that the ghastly RepubliCons have been  neutralized for at least a few years.

But I am happier and more relaxed than I have been for a long time. I do enjoy living in the progressive heart of Canada. And I do know this:

The wind is in our sails, the times they are a changing, the Cons are being left behind.

And I am more convinced than ever that the future belongs to us... 

UPDATE:

Andrew Scheer meets with his senior caucus team, and rides off into the sunset without saying a word.  

Hmmm...Hello, Con Humiliation Central?

I'd like to buy two tickets to this final performance...



25 comments:

ottlib said...

The same social conservatives that gave Mr. Scheer the leadership may just save him. They have a fellow traveler as a national leader and potential PM and they will probably work hard to keep it that way. A leadership contest could see someone less regressive and reactionary leading the Conservative Party and that just will not do.

The next few months in the Conservative Party could be interesting. Those who believe that Mr. Scheer is unelectable will be battling it out with the social conservatives in the party and since social conservatives have a persecution complex the size of Lake Superior it could get vocal and loud. Then there are the egos of potential replacements such as Jason Kenney who may cause more problems in the Party.

The nightmare scenario for the Conservatives is Mr. Scheer winning the leadership review by less than 55%. It would show the party is divided and Mr. Scheer would not do what Joe Clark did when he only receive around 60% in 1981.

There are a few fault lines in the Conservative Party. Here is hoping that the next few months cause those lines to explode into full fledged fissures.

Anonymous said...

C'mon, give the guy a break. He's got 5 kids to feed and his job skills are limited to running an office copier. Of course he's not looking to give up the nice, big, free house with the cook and the maids and the chauffer-driven limo. Would you?

Jackie Blue said...

I hope it splits the party again or destroys them altogether. Here in the States, there's a similar war between the "Never Trumpers" and the Republicans willing to go down with the Russian ship. But I admit I'm concerned about a silver-tongued snake like Peter MacKay being Scheer's possible replacement, what with the media in the tank for the Cons and the whole apparatus all in to really take down the Trudeau dynasty with manufactured scandals and smear campaigns. But what I find encouraging are the rumors about Jason and even Doug waiting in the wings! Sounds like a bona fide WWE Royal Rumble is coming up.

May they live in interesting times and burn their accursed headquarters to the ground. A house divided cannot stand, so here's hoping it crumbles once and for all. Aladdin and SNC would all be forgotten, because destroying the handiwork of the malevolent Stephen Harper would be Justin Trudeau's real legacy. It would drive him mad, and that couldn't happen to a better asshole. Holy Moses, it would be a miracle if JT parted the Blue Sea!

Anonymous said...

The Post said it all. Its a wonderful party, the only reason why they did not trounce Trudeau is because Andy could not convince people his personal views on gay rights and abortion would not interfere with impartial governing. The 4 years of social media divisive attack ads, lack of a discernible platform on anything other than bogus claims for legislating pipelines and tossing immigrants back across the border were just fine. If only Andy could lie Convincingly.
Perhaps the leader will change but there does not seem to be any intention of dropping the manipulative bullshit by publishing an honest detailed platform and letting the voters decide if it fits with their personal needs and aspirations for Canada. Essentially the money wants to put a new paint job on the old rust bucket so they can dupe more people but for the grass roots the open display of rust/intolerant regressive views is beautiful. Money usually wins.

RT

Anonymous said...

Money certainly won this time, RT. Job One for Trudeau is passing a nice, juicy tax cut and the Cons will need breathing down his neck to ensure he delivers even more corporate goodies like taxpayer-funded pipelines and infrastructure. It's spring-time for plutocrats!

Anonymous said...

Simon I am shocked by the way you are rubbing the noses of the Cons in the dirt. I am shocked I tell you, but please don't stop.

Anonymous said...

"Only winners need apply" indeed. Scheer is toast and the sooner he realizes it the better. From his dubious ascension to Con leader to his ultimate defeat at the hands of a bruised but not battered Trudeau, the end is nigh. Harper 2.0 lived up to his name in that he regurgigated Stevie's failed modus operandi and like Stevie, he ended up 2nd. None and done and soon to be far away from Stornoway, hip-hip-hooray! Time for a walk in the snow, Andy. Reflect upon what could have been, what might have been, if only the stars had been aligned, if only you weren't such an asshole.
It has been a great week, Simon. The reality of it all keeps slowly sinking in like a soothing massage using Oil Of Con Tears, healing, calming, with a scent of vindication. Rub it in, rub it in.
JD

Steve said...

please keep him

Jackie Blue said...

MIDDLE CLASS tax cut, Anon, paid for by tax INCREASES on the plutocrats. Sorry not sorry that he's not going to bankrupt Canada by leaving Alberta to rot and doling out a UBI of a million dollars to everyone in the country. Here we have another purity fauxgressive DipperCon who equates suburban households to billionaires while indulging your Freudian fixation on Justin's pipeline. You jealous accelerationist trolls do not hold a copyright on the mantle of progressivism, and you better make this parliament work by compromising and meeting the Liberals in the middle rather than expecting full concession to your unrealistic ransom demands.

Justin Trudeau is not your whipping boy. He doesn't even need your fourth-place also-ran cult for his government to survive. The Bloc's separatist ideology and penchant for warping secularism into discrimination might leave much to be desired, but at least Blanchet and his team are professional, adult, and want to actually get down to business. Seems the Cons and their horseshoe-model lapdogs such as yourself just want to throw a spoiled, childish tantrum and a spanner in the works.

If you sabotage this government, we'll hold you accountable AGAIN because we haven't forgotten St Jack's devil's bargain with Harper that brought down Paul Martin. Back then, it was childcare that you sacrificed for a self-serving taste of power. Now you don't want infrastructure? Infrastructure creates jobs. Talk about literally burning bridges! What's going to happen when the roads crack and you obstructionists don't have any highways to block? Your populist anger initiatives don't even make any sense!

Care to take a lesson in reality from the Prime Minister's friend and most high-profile endorser, or is he not sufficiently "woke" enough for you either?

https://twitter.com/IsaacDovere/status/1189304414991015937

"Sock man bad" and lying about the TruGrits' agenda so you can own the neolibs is not a valid platform. Try engaging with facts instead of slogans and memes and yelling at bougie centrist clouds. You say you want a revolution? Well, we'd all love to see the plan!

rumleyfips said...

Another bite to Sheer's ass this morning. A Quebec Senator says throw the bum out. It's starting to look like a carefully planned campaign well enough activated to make one suspect pre election meetings. One criticism a day : drip, drip, drip.

Jackie Blue said...

Speaking of Quebec, what the fuck is this. Another blustering blowhard who needs to go.

https://twitter.com/TrevorsIdeas/status/1189601539515731968

Bob Rae says successful minority parliaments require goodwill and humility. Obama called on progressives to stop fighting each other over perfection. Instead Singh acts like a Con mobster making demands of Trudeau and pushes an offer he can't refuse. So much for love and courage, now it's give us what we want or we sic Jody and the committee on you. That's not goodwill or humility. That's extortion. And it's a waste of taxpayer dollars just to put Trudeau through the ringer of a Benghazi hearing and make the NDP relevant in the press.

I hope the Liberals and Bloc hold majorities on these committees and shut them down. Otherwise, if bickering over the Stupid Nothingburger Controversy crashes this parliament and another election happens, the NDP will get wiped out and good riddance to them if so. Trudeau doesn't deserve this shit. He never said he wasn't willing to work with anyone, but Singh thinks he's got Trudeau's balls in a vice. In fourth place at that. Shame on him for accusing Trudeau of running a "fear-based campaign" and then doing politics by vendetta. Bastard. I know I get ragged on for being so sharp towards the NDP but when they start acting like this it's time for Liberal supporters to fight back. He could have let bygones be bygones and use the election to start a new page, but instead he does this. If he wants to be Andy's sidekick let him suffer the same fate and get turfed. Singh is another transparent liar who can go fuddle-duddle and freeze in the dark.

Simon said...

HI Ottlib....yes, I shoul have been clearer. The social conservatives may rally to save Scheer, but it would be a Pyrrhic victory. If it was clear that the social conservatives had kept him as leader both Scheer and the party would be terminally damaged. But yes, I am looking forward to an almighty conflagration that will hopefully demoralize the Cons all the way to the next election....

Simon said...

Hi anon....Well if you put it that way. If I had five kids I too would need a cook, a maid, and at least one nannie. On the other hand, didn't you see those Con ads where Scheer is in the kitchen making cheese and peanut butter sandwiches for his brood? So while he might miss the big house, he won't starve to death. Unfortunately. 😉

Simon said...

Hi Jackie....I would worry about the media, for they remain a snake in the grass. But I wouldn't worry about Dumbo MacKay. I have a bulging file of illustrations documenting all this ethical violations, from insulting the Chief Justice to borrowing military aircraft to go fishing. And of course if Kenney and Ford got in the ring, it would be a dream come true. And the end of the Cons....

Simon said...

Hi RT....It will be an interesting clash and give us a good idea if the Cons still have a moderate wing. I think the Harper Party is too far gone for the Cons to be able to change their stripes. And if they can't the next election should see their total collapse. The new generation is beginning to flex its muscles, and a social conservative party won't stand a chance...

Simon said...

Hi anon...I don't blame you for being shocked. Rubbing Con noses into the dirt is not usually my style. But I've been getting a ton of really vile comments from their supporters, so serve them right....

Simon said...

Hi anon@10:20 PM....You sound like a bitter loser, not one of those NDPers I hope. The ones who celebrated as if they had won the election, instead of losing 20 MPs and coming in fourth. But whatever, the fact is all the big money was on the Con side and if you couldn't see that you must be blind...

Simon said...

hi JD....It has indeed been a great week. I've been far too mellow for my own good. But after that nightmarish election campaign I feel like I'm sitting on a cloud, far above it all and it will be a while before I can recover. But those Con tears will help a lot. They were so sure they were going to win I can't help gloating. Rub it in, rub it in, rub it in....🎉💥🍻

Simon said...

Hi Steve....I realize that some progressives want the Cons to keep the Ugly American, because they think he will be easier to defeat than any other candidate. And I understand that. But if Scheer by chance should become prime minister he would be an absolute nightmare, so the risk is too great....

Simon said...

Hi rumleyfips....yes, the resistance seems strongest in Quebec, where a Bible thumper like Scheer will never do well. I'll wait to see whether others will come out of the shadows. And of course a lot will depend on what Harper has to say. I note that his faithful flunkey, Rachel Curran has expressed doubts that Scheer could ever beat Trudeau, so that's an encouraging sign...

Simon said...

Hi Jackie....Singh is out of it. Canadians are sick of that fake scandal and nothing will kill the NDP faster than trying to side with the Cons and revive it. I think Jagmeet is a good guy, but right now he's just a tool in the hands of the old and very bitter NDP gang. We are number four!! We are number four!!!

Steve said...

so we get Jason Kenney instead. Say what you will about his closet, he is a master swordsman.

Anonymous said...

We may be rid of Andy sooner than we thought.

https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/2019/10/30/scheer-faces-more-criticism-as-conservative-caucus-reminded-of-new-rules-that-could-trigger-a-leadership-review.html

JD

Jackie Blue said...

Count 1... 2... TWO At Issue panelists throwing up their hands! Ah ha ha ha! Happy Halloween!

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/andrew-coyne-conservatives-need-to-change-course-not-change-leaders

Jackie Blue said...

Speaking of finding a new line of work: Simon, I'd love to read your take on this story, because your calling in life is to fight bullies. Elizabeth May has said she's "interested" in becoming Speaker of the House (Scheer's old job!) but we all know her connections to Kinsella. We also know Kinsella has made it his calling in life to bully Justin Trudeau, and supporters of the Liberal Party (especially supporters who are women). But as bad as that is, I don't think anything compares to going to bat for Doug Ford to bully the families of autistic children.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-kinsella-firm-provided-free-training-to-autism-group-threatened-suit/

https://medium.com/@MikePMoffatt/daisy-warren-kinsella-the-conservatives-and-the-autism-fight-d83c30cb0d22

I want answers from Elizabeth May as to how the hell she figures she ought to become Speaker of the House and could ever conduct an "impartial" oversight of Parliamentary proceedings when she hired this noxious abuser who ran interference for the likes of Doug Ford to bully autism families online.

Max Bernier cyberbullied Greta Thunberg, in part because she has autism. Voters rejected the PPC and he didn't even win his own seat. Ostensibly, Kinsella was hired by the Cons to "seek and destroy" Max and the PPC. But how does this make her any better than Max? Does she think Max would be a good fit for Speaker of the House? Donald Trump bullied a reporter who has ALS. Michelle Rempel made fun of Justin Trudeau's bilingual stammer. Does she think any of them have the requisite temperament or decorum to be Speaker of the House?

I don't want her putting her hat in any ring. Especially not a position vested with such authority. I want her to resign, and to issue a contrite public apology and condemnation of Kinsella and his "clientele" when doing so. Anyone with the kind of poor judgment required to affiliate with this depraved SOB really needs a little time away from public life.