Friday, September 29, 2017
Polls Wars: Who Is More Popular The Cons Or The Liberals?
I realize that a poll is just a snapshot in time, and that all of them come with a margin of error.
But trying to figure out who is doing better these days, Andrew Scheer's Cons or Justin Trudeau's Liberals, is getting to be almost impossible.
For first there was a Forum poll five days ago that suggested that Scheer was ahead for the first time ever.
But it was followed the very next day by a Nanos poll that suggested he wasn't.
And now I'm totally confused.
Because an Angus Reid poll suggests that Canadians favour Trudeau as Prime Minister, but would prefer a Con government.
More Canadians say Trudeau would make the best Prime Minister than Scheer (33% versus 18%), but slightly more say Scheer’s Conservatives than Trudeau’s Liberals would make the best government (36% versus 33%)
And if that wasn't bizarre enough, the poll also suggests that a strong desire for change is being driven not by the restless young, but by the impatient old.
While millennial voters continue to sustain the Prime Minister in public opinion terms (60% approve), older Canadians are a different story. Trudeau’s steady decline with Canadians over the age of 55 continues this quarter. Last September he held the approval of two-thirds (66%) on them – this quarter that number drops another four points to 44 per cent, down 22 points over the last year.Canadians ages 35 to 54 hold a similar view – 46 per cent approve of the Prime Minister.
Which seems to me to be in violation of the laws of nature.
But then just as I was about to declare that you can't trust anyone over the age of 35.
Along comes an Ipsos poll to suggest that nothing has really changed.
Despite a string of political controversies, including the Liberals’ proposed tax reforms and the Omar Khadr settlement, voter support for Justin Trudeau’s government remains stable, according to an Ipsos poll.
In fact, if an election were held tomorrow the poll suggests 39 per cent of Canadians say they would vote for Trudeau’s Liberals edging out Andrew Scheer’s Conservatives at 32 per cent.
And that we're in exactly the same place we were the night Stephen Harper was evicted...
Which of course is something to celebrate.
As is the fact that while Canadians may be as confused as I am, some things do seem clear.
Andrew Scheer is just not ready...
No matter what the voices in his head might be telling him.
Our polling companies should probably hire better fortune tellers.
And since Justin Trudeau is the unanimous choice of all those polls, despite the best efforts of our Con media.
He is probably going to be prime minister for a long long time...