Monday, September 25, 2017
Is Andrew Scheer Now More Popular Than Justin Trudeau?
It's going to feel like 40 degrees again in Ottawa today. And I was pretty sure that Andrew Scheer was melting.
Not just because of the brutal temperature, but also because of the heat he's been taking over all the lies in his phony tax campaign.
But could I be wrong?
Could this nightmare be true?
Could Scheer and his Cons now be more popular than Justin Trudeau's Liberals?
If an election were held today, Forum says, 39 per cent of the country would vote for Andrew Scheer’s Conservative Party and 35 per cent would vote for Justin Trudeau’s Liberals.
Forum’s president Lorne Bozinoff doesn’t stop there, though. He then applies his poll result to a seat distribution model and concludes that, if an election were held right now, the result would be a Conservative minority — can you say Prime Minister Andrew Scheer? — where the Tories would have precisely half the seats in the House of Commons.
The Tories would win 169, while the Liberals would win 130 seats, the NDP 26, the Bloc Quebecois 12, and the Green Party would keep its single seat.
And so soon after this poll of polls.
Or this poll.
Or this one...
And what or who are we to believe?
This is just the second poll since early October 2015 that finds anyone but Justin Trudeau’s Liberals in first place. (The other one, from March, was also from Forum.) So, the question quickly posed on social networks is does this poll represent the reality of Canadian public opinion or is it an outlier?
Could the Liberals have really fallen seven points, while the Cons gained nine in just two weeks, while the NDP remained exactly the same?
Does anybody find it strange that Scheer would lead Trudeau with half his approval rating?
More than four in ten (43%) say they approve of Trudeau’s performance, which is down six points since August (August 24th: 49%). Almost half (47%) say they disapprove of his performance, up five points in the same time period (August 24th: 42%).
Andrew Scheer sees approval amongst one quarter (26%) of voters and disapproval of almost a third (30%). Andrew Scheer has failed to make an impression on the plurality, however, with almost half (44%) saying they do not know whether they approve or disapprove.
Would anyone dare cast a vote for the NDP when they could split the vote and hand the Cons a majority?
And are there really enough greedy grifters in this country who would believe this grubby Con artist?
Believe that he would reduce taxes for small businesses, when even this Con-friendly analyst says the opposite is true, and he is only leading his followers into a trap.
The Conservatives have fallen into the trap of defending a group of privileged Canadians and allowing themselves to be boxed in against the middle class.
It seems that Justin Trudeau has adopted a lesson Donald Trump taught us all in 2016: conventional commentators, more often than not, are drastically out of touch — and leaders should trust their instincts.
Are Canadians really that stupid? Would they really make this creepy religious fanatic Prime Minister?
Sacrifice the rights of women and gay people, throw away decent pensions and medicare, as well as legalized marijuana. And turn this country into a theocracy or a police state.
And sadly I have to admit it's possible.
For what smart or decent people could have endured ten years of Stephen Harper, and then less than two years later come crawling back for more?
Snivelling and slobbering "please sir I want MORE."
And how do you explain those progressive dotards who spend more time attacking Trudeau and the Liberals than they do attacking the Cons?
If the Cons are elected could we ever punish them enough?
Oh well, none of this will make any difference to me. I will just keep on doing what I have now done for more than eleven years.
Fight the filthy bigot Cons wherever they raise their ugly hog heads.
Resist them as hard as I can, for as long as it takes.
Until the day they are finally destroyed.
And Canada is clean and safe again...
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I suspect that Forum has run into a sampling fluke, given the "unanimity" of the other polls. It happens.
Another reason for doubting these results is that the Liberals do not seem to have made any spectacular gaffes that would have caused any strong swings.
If true, it is probably the tax doomsday rhetoric that's causing this. In my area, Dan Albas is doing a good job of getting the message out there to his wealthy "small business owners" in the Okanagan that Trudeau is out to destroy the middle class. I still think Scheer is a tough sell to the mainstream and his chances of winning are not that great, but then again if Trudeau doesn't start to show a bit more substance (sorry Simon I think he is falling short from campaign to governance), change his tune anything can happen.
While we should always be on guard and worried about the ghastly cons, I seriously question this poll. Forum has been all over the place since John Corbett left for Campaign Research and even had them up in March. Panic if the Nanos drops. It's also worth noting the cons changed their rhetoric from doctors to farmers, something they would not do if they were winning.
Also be wary of David Akin, the Chris Cilliza of Canadian media, the slobbering fool who will do anything for an extra click.
No big gaffes yet, but it's more like death by a thousand unforced errors. First, looking back 2 years the list of accomplishments by this government is very thin.
Then it seems they consider the federal treasury as theirs to loot. There was that friend of Gerald Butts appointed to a consul's post at twice the going salary. That failed candidate given a 437,000$ contract for 8 months of work. And probably a lot more we still have to find out about. Looks like the corruption of the McGuinty/Wynne government has migrated to Ottawa, not surprising given their apparatchiks now all work for Trudeau.
And then people will actually start hurting thanks to the actions of this government. My next door neighbors, two young women in university, found out thanks to the elimination of the public transit credit, and the education/textbook deduction, each will be set back by about 1,000$ this year. They were quite shocked to find that out. Both voted enthusiastically for the Liberals in 2015. Next time they'll probably stay home.
phony right wing polls should not only be ignored they should be illegal
The part you forget is that these tax changes are being done against the backdrop of Trudeau and his finance minister using various corporations and trust funds to pay less taxes themselves while demanding that small business people pay more in taxes, closing loopholes for small business owners while keeping the tax loooholes that benefit themselves safe.
Either issue by it's self wouldn't damage Trudeau, but combine them into single issue, and you have a cocktail that is pure poison to Trudeau.
Simon you'd understand where things are going off the rails better if you just saw the leaders people, instead of a battle between good and, evil. Trudeau isn't an angel and Sheer isn't the devil.
And I will be supporting the NDP in the next election.
Your neighbours sound incredibly selfish. I lost money too, you don't see me disengaging from democracy. Pathetic.
Don't worry Simon, when you put David Akin and Forum together what you get is a broken Con cuckoo clock. It has no idea of what's going on, but it is right twice a day. The Liberals are going to smash the Scheer/Harper social conservative cult, and it's not even going to be close.
Make a list of those dotards and we'll go after them, and we'll go after them and show them as the Con suckers they are. A religious bigot and woman hater like Scheer will only become PM over our dead bodies. Fuck the right and fuck the alt-left traitors.
I'd pop myself if this happens. It would mean that the free world really is plunging into darkness. Actual Nazis won the largest percentage since the '30s in the German elections, and Merkel is not going to be around forever. France is always restless and Macron is on shaky ground already. Britain is a hopeless basket case. America, well, is obvious. That leaves Canada as the last hope.
And if Canada falls to fascism yet again, then there's nothing left to stick around for. International fascism being a fate worse than death, Trump would actually end up saving us all with total thermonuclear war.
Is it possible both the parties of the right---well, two-thirds of them, anyway---will get a drubbing in BC? By the next federal election, the defeated, far-right BC Liberal party's reputation will be in tatters as the Green-Dippers continue to role out one indictment of perfidious neo-liberalism after another from the sad forensics the neo-rightists left in their stinking wake. Will sheer champion bitumen goo getting piped through BC and condemn First Nations' injunctions and the GDP's allied intervenor status in court? Good luck with that, Andy!
Is it possible moderate conservative votes will migrate right over the interceding Liberals and support the federal Greens? They just tripled their seat-count provincially. Besides, if Jagmeet wins the Dipper leadership, Surrey's lost to JT. You have to appreciate the depth of betrayal felt by many erstwhile JT supporters out here. The BC Liberals (no relation) got swept out of all Vancouver urban ridings because of their support of Kinder Morgan's Trans Mountain pipieline expansion. It was quite something, and a sign of the times.
Not sayin' JT's gone be wiped out, just that there'll be an adjustment, and it probably won't be sum-zero for either him or Sheer.
Hi jrkideau...I also think that Forum's poll is an outlier. As I pointed out in my post, there is something weird about the fact that Trudeau's approval rating is so much higher than Scheer's rating, but still Scheer's Cons are supposedly more popular than Trudeau's Liberals. We'll have to wait for new polls to figure out what is really going on....
hi BW...first of all I don't agree that the Trudeau government hasn't achieved anything in the less than two years it has been in power. It has demolished much of Stephen Harper's legacy, stood up for the rights of women and LGBT Canadians, and it has made us look infinitely better in the eyes of the world. You may not care about that, but I am less provincial than most Canadians, so I do. Also the examples you cite are in the grand scheme of things petty. I doubt they will sway many votes. But most importantly, if not Trudeau WHO? I always ask progressives that question and they never have a satisfactory answer. Do you think that the NDP which has been at 15% for more than two years is ever going to form a government? I don't think so. So it comes down to a choice between the Liberals and the Cons, and I know what side I'm on...
hi bcwaterboy...you don't have to apologize to me for anything Trudeau has or hasn't done. I didn't vote for him, and if an NDP candidate, or a green one, or even a Bloc one can defeat the Cons better than Justin can I could easily vote for him or her. I just don't want to see the same thing happen here, as happened in the U.S., where the precious left decided that Clinton had failed the purity test and helped elect Donald Trump.
Also, as I told BW I happen to disagree with the notion fanned by the dilettantes of the precious left and the Con media that claims that Trudeau hasn't done anything in two years. When in my opinion he has improved the atmosphere in this country by about 1,000 per cent. I realize that in the rarified air of BC you have pipelines on your brain, but don't you realize that those pipelines will never be built, and Trudeau is only supporting them to help Rachel Notley stay in power and keep Alberta from separating. National unity is the first duty of any prime minister, and this country is far more fragile than most Canadians believe. Finally, I am surprised that you don't give Justin more credit for being the FIRST prime minister to enthusiastically embrace the LGBT community. Is that worth nothing to you? Are we worth so little? Oh well, as I said in my post I will continue to do what I can to try to ensure that the Cons never form a government again. But if they do I will not spend any time lamenting the stupidity of Canadians. I have a great job waiting for me in beautiful downtown Edinburgh, and my time in exile will be a happy one... ;)
Hi anon 3:06 pm...I completely agree with you. That's what some of the precious progressive flowers did in the U.S., and look where we are now. When will people understand that perfection is sometimes the enemy of the good, and get real about the world we live in?
hi anon...yes, I was going to mention all the things you write about, and had to restrain myself from taking aim at Akin's obvious glee, but what's the point? He'll never change, and he's right that we'll have to wait for other polls to see whether Forum is a sign of things to come, or an absolute dud. My guess is it's a dud, and that when Canadians realize they've been fooled like rube suckers, and find out who Scheer really is, the Liberals will leave the Cons in the dust like the Road Runner does the not so Wile E. Coyote...
hi Steve...I probably should have ignored that poll, but Akin's glee had me glowing red, and I think it shows... ;)
hi Gyor...I have never maintained that trudeau is an angel, but trust me Scheer is evil. He is a religious fanatic, a misogynist, an anti-gay bigot, a racist who hangs with The Rebel, and refuses to properly apologize for the actions of pigs like Gerry Ritz and racists like Lynn Beyak.
As for the tax scam that's all it is. Blind trusts are what politicians are supposed to do with their money. And the fact is both Trudeau and Morneau have already raised their own taxes, they have already recovered more than $11 billion from tax dodgers using tax havens, and if they raise taxes on the wealthy they will pay more too...
hi anon...I like the image of a broken cuckoo clock, but can we fix it so Scheer comes out and chirps every hour "Jesus loves you, Jesus loves you" because that would be great, and it would also reveal Scheer as the religious fanatic he is. As far as I'm concerned if you're a social conservative you can preach in a church or on a street corner, but don't try to impose your hateful screwed up values on the rest of us...
hi anon...as we approach the beginning of the election campaign I definitely will, since I have no intention of playing nice when we live in a darkening world, and our country is threatened by homegrown Trumpkins and religious fanatics...
"Precious left" lol Simon sometimes you make me laugh so hard in these difficult times.
A Nanos poll drops every Tuesday at 6am. We will know in a few hours. If it shows the Liberals with a healthy lead will David Akin write a follow up article? Fuck no! Slobbering fool.
Agree Anon, those left wingers are actually more infuriating than the average trumpanzee. They know better, the trumpanzees do not.
It'll be Angus
hi anon...don't even think about popping yourself, and save the fireworks for the victory party, because our side is going to win. I'm sorry if I sounded a bit pessimistic, I was just tired and angry. I don't fare well when it feels like 40 degrees, and I think I had a touch of sun stroke. There is no doubt that we are living in dangerous times, but the arc of the moral universe bends towards justice, and all the bad things out there will eventually carry us out of the darkness, and into the light. In the U.S. Trump's atrocities are uniting good people against him like never before. In Britain the once mocked Jeremy Corbyn is now the prime minister in waiting. And in France, Macron may have had a rocky start, but Le Pen and her gang have been marginalized. And here in Canada Scheer is a walking target, and by the time we have finished with him there won't be much left. If I didn't believe this I wouldn't say it. The young are on our side, and the future belongs to us...
hi Geoffrey...I understand how some people in BC feel, but nothing has changed and nothing ever will. The pipelines are a pipe dream and will never be built because the market they were intended to serve is shrinking too fast for them to ever service. The electric car is finally a reality, China is going green faster than we are, Trudeau and Butts know that, but can't drum that message home lest separatist sentiment in Alberta grows out of control. So they would rather stretch the process out and let the markets do the dirty work for them. As for whether Jagmeet Singh will weaken Trudeau by attracting Sikhs in Surrey or elsewhere, I suppose that's possible. But what purpose would that serve when the NDP are not in a position to form a government? All it might do is split the vote and elect a Con government. It's all very well to stand on a building and blow a trumpet, or beat a drum. And it might make people feel empowered. But politics is the art of the possible, and until the day the NDP is in a position to challenge for government, it will come down to a choice between the Liberals as flawed as they may be, and the terrible Cons. Which in my book is no choice at all...
Well Simon, the Nanos has it at 39-32. The bad news is the liberals have fallen 3 points in two weeks. I think they are doing a very good job, but they often do they faceplant on communication. How is this with a PM like Trudeau? It's still a healthy lead but a much needed wake up call. Fire the coms guy or girl. I know when Trudeau starts slipping he always ups his game, so not worried there.
Don't get me wrong Simon, I do like Justin, voted for his party and would do so again- there's a few things like proportional rep and backing the big $$ donor pet projects in BC like Kinder and Site C and most definitely indigenous relations where he talks big but under delivers, that are the low hanging fruit. Youre right though, we must pull out all stops to ensure that the likes of Scheer never make it to PM.
I'm not a Green supporter---except insofar as the BC Greens support the NDP government here---but I get the feeling this is a sleeper party federally where some of the (real)Tory protest vote goes, a phenomenon that's benefited every other party to some extent. Starting with Manning there was a treachery-fuelled ascent as the neo-rightists disassembled Mulroney's Tory construct, threw out bits they didn't like (Bouchard, Joe Clark, etc.), and cobbled together a monster that terrorized the countryside, but ran out of gas as it trudged blindly toward certain death west of the Rockies. Yet there's been a palpable decline recently for the neo-rightists. Now, with Sheer installed as leader, the Cons' decline has steepened (I'm no conservative but I was astonished they took the wrong fork in the road after Harper resigned---what on earth are they thinking?).
Con MP Diane Watts just resigned her Commons seat to contest the BC Liberal (Canada's farthest-right secular party) leadership. She announced her candidacy on Sun's Day, and yesterday worked talk-shows. Jeez! Nothing but rote, trite, neo-right apology and faux-empathy. Even if she doesn't win (she's unwelcome in her new party, just like Christy was/is), the same old twaddle she'll force her rivals to engage in will sound like a sad, screechy fiddle accompanying the rhythm of the trapdoor as the Green-Dippers hang the BC Liberal's dirty laundry, by serial instalment, out on the political gallows. The right hasn't looked this bad in BC for a long time, and it isn't over yet.
I have a lot of faith in Sheer---that he'll continue to fuel the fire that's consuming his party. Combine that with the whoops and groans as the Albetarian paleo-right cowboys spur on their dinosaur mounts with self-righteousness as maudlin as this county's ever seen---and you got a perfect storm of discreditation on the right, replete with spinning Fort Mac bungalows in swirling gales of soot and loosed leaves of the Bible thick as confetti twisting in a deep prairie low. By 2019, the newly defeated BC Liberals, not yet threadbare from shifting for themselves, will be looking about as tattered as their UCP and Con computzriates. Bad-talkin' in a bad suit with a bad smell.
That's prob'ly good news for JT.
Cons (and other neo-rightists, however they call themselves) trending down, Greens up, NDP up-ish, and JT...? West Coast is cookin'.
Pipelines aren't done yet out here. TMX, of course, is still in operation, as it has been for over sixty years. You're prob'ly right about the expansion project being stopped by legal action or abandoned for feasibility reasons. But the refinery at the Burnaby terminus is now being upgraded in preparation, they say, for the twinned pipeline that prob'ly won't happen. But I'm not sure how much longer pipeline politics can effectively pry citizens apart. Like you said, Premier Notley needs what she needs and JT can "give" it to her without actually doing much.
Don't forget: JT also has to wear his inappropriate, disrespectful and prob'ly damaging approval of Christy's request to accelerate groundwork on the Site-C dam which, since her BC Liberals were defeated this summer, is being stopped, investigated and continually shown to be a huge, huge, intentionally gigantic neo-right boondoggle that'll cost BC almost two-billion dollars. JT completely betrayed First Nations who'd thrown in with him to address their concerns about the Peace River dam (he issued Christy's permits just weeks before their complaint was to be heard in federal court).
One senses that the Cons have yet to plumb their nadir, that the NDP already has and is climbing back out---in BC and Albetar to the zenith---and the Greens now holding the balance of power in BC bodes well for further successes in BC on the federal level (the federal and provincial Greens overlap in their own region of southern Van Isle).
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