Monday, February 05, 2018

Are the Scheer Cons Now More Popular Than The Liberals?

When I checked to see what Andrew Scheer was doing this weekend, I saw that he was at the Winter Carnival in Quebec City.

No doubt trying to hold on to the small and shrinking number of seats the Cons have in that province.

Which won't be easy, because most Quebecers strongly support Justin Trudeau, and they need a right-wing, religious fanatic, and climate change denier like Scheer, like they need a hole in the head.

But then I saw something shocking.

A new poll that suggests that Scheer's Cons are suddenly more popular than Trudeau's Liberals.

And are heading for another majority government.

The federal Conservatives are gaining voter momentum being led by Andrew Scheer, according to a new poll by Forum Research. In a random sampling among 1,408 Canadian voters, Conservative support has risen significantly and now four in 10 – or 43% — say they would support Scheer’s party if an election were held today, up four points since December. 

On the flipside, about 38% would support Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals, the poll suggests.

And of course at first I was stunned. And then furious.

Could it be true that only two years after freeing themselves from the clutches of the ghastly Harper regime, so many Canadians are aching for more punishment?

What kind of sheep are they? And what kind of country is this Canada?

But then I took another look at this Forum poll and something didn't seem right. 

It seemed just too different from the CBC poll tracker chart that I ran the other day.

And sure enough there was the guy who produced that chart offering a word of caution:

And of course, the Forum poll was taken before the Dykstra scandal exploded.

Which is a problem for Scheer, because that scandal just keeps getting more sordid. 

Top Conservatives, including former prime minister Stephen Harper, kept silent about sexual-misconduct allegations involving Rick Dykstra even as the former Tory MP rose in the ranks of Ontario politics – a decision that is now revealing deep fractures in the federal party.

And with the evidence now pointing straight at Stephen Harper.

Three sources have told The Globe and Mail that a conference call between top aides and Mr. Harper was held to discuss Mr. Dykstra's candidacy in the 2015 election, and it was the former prime minister himself who decided Mr. Dykstra should stay on.

Scheer is going have to hope that the evidence doesn't also show that he knew but also said or did nothing.

As well as show, as Michael Harris points out, whether he has the guts to be more than just a Harper puppet.

It is the moment of truth for Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer. Depending on how he conducts the third-party investigation into the Rick Dykstra affair, he will either remain a wooden puppet or turn into a real boy. If he opts for puppet-hood, everyone knows who will be holding the strings.

Like Rona Ambrose, the leader he succeeded was...

And quite frankly I don't think Scheer does have the guts to take on his former master, the man he served so faithfully.

So Harper will take him down with him, as I predicted the other day...

And while the Forum poll should be a reminder that we are still in a life and death struggle with the Harper Party, and that we need to attack them harder than ever.

And that the toxic Trudeau haters in our own ranks need to be told to stuff a sock in it, and save their venom for the real enemy. 

I'm pretty sure that other polls will soon show that Scheer is smaller (and furrier) than  Forum is portraying him.

And that he's still a hopeless loser.

And is still going nowhere...


  1. Replies
    1. Anonymous4:49 PM

      Because it is or because you need to believe that it is?

    2. HI Steve...there is something strange about this Forum poll. The jump in Con support comes out of nowhere, and is hard to believe when Trudeau's remains so much more popular than Scheer. Also the NDP numbers seem to have plunged without explanation.We'll have to wait and see what other polls tell us, but for now I share Eric Grenier's reservations....

    3. Hi must be hard to be a Con and have your hopes raised by what is almost certainly an outlier of a poll, knowing in the pit of your stomach that your hopes are also almost certainly about to hit the ground with a sickening thud. And remember, Scheer hasn't yet been schmeared, but believe me he will be. By the time we're finished with him he's going to look like a broken puppet, or that squirrel on skis...🙈

  2. Anonymous10:17 AM

    We are in a struggle and should not be resting on our laurels, but that forum poll is bullshit. They've released several in the past year that have been outliers. They've been junk since John Corbett left them for Campaign Research.

    1. Hi anon@10:17 AM...everything seems to suggest that the poll is bullshit, but I thought I'd run it anyway to try to shake progressives out of their complacency. The Cons are getting a free ride, as progressives hibernate or fight each other, and the Con media strokes them shamelessly...

  3. Anonymous10:43 AM

    "Are the Scheer Cons Now More Popular Than The Liberals?"
    Please Simon, don't scare me like that.:(
    Forum's skewered methodology makes perfect sense as to why the Cons are polling higher than the Libs and as you said Simon, the whole Dykstra scandal has yet to be weighed in these polls.
    Once Canadians learn how the so called champion of women(Harper) didn't even launch his own investigation into these allegations, preferring instead to sweep it under the rug, we'll also hopefully learn where Scheer stood or failed to stand in all of this.
    The most ironically delicious part of this is that Scheer's investigation will not cast his mentor in a good light and may end up with Harper severing the umbilical cord that has been feeding Scheer the Harper toxins all these years. That and maybe a few Harper bombshells tossed Scheer's way for daring to defy ex-Dear Leader.
    I'd call that a win-win situation.

    1. Hi JD....I'm afraid I must plead guilty to trying to give progressives a little scare, but only as I explained above to try to shake them out of their complacency. It infuriates me to see the Cons get away with murder, while some progressives spend all their time attacking Justin Trudeau and the Liberals. Scheer has a lot to answer for, and since the Con media won't hold him accountable we must. And the Dykstra scandal is a great way to remind Canadians that they don't call Scheer Harper Two for nothing...

  4. The Cons get a vote of about 4 o 5% in my riding (Rosemont-La-Petite-Patrie).

    But I'll vote for Alexandre Boulerice, as usual.

    1. Hi Lagatta....the NDP have spent too much time attacking the Liberals like the Cons, and not enough time inspiring people which is the reason I have voted for them in the past. They are going to pay for that, and since Jagmeet Singh is unlikely to gain much traction in Quebec, I believe the NDP is going to be reduced to just a handful of seats in our province...

  5. Anonymous11:15 AM

    Bah! Polls more than a year and a half out from an election tell us little. But the Con media love outliers like Forum so they can run with the horse-race narrative and shape public opinion for Scheer. It's all BS, but the media figure it's better for us if you don't understand.

    1. Hi anon@11:15AM...I agree that polls so far from an election don't give us much except suggest a trend. But only the Sun would print a poll that seems so fishy. And if you read between the lines it seems clear to me that they knew it. As Eric Grenier wrote, a responsible media organization would have pointed out that Forum has constantly given the Cons more support than other polling companies...

  6. Are you planninng to scheer those Tory scheep?

    1. Hi Lagatta...I have a one-word answer for you: MUTTON...😛

  7. e.a.f.1:30 PM

    Polls depend upon what questions are asked. Not all polls are created equal as we have seen in the past couple of years, where the polls said one thing and the electorate another.

    Who knows where these "random" candidates from the poll were selected. This poll works to create "momentum" for the Cons and that is about it. People may be unhappy with Trudeau in some areas of the country, but people still receive those cheques for their children every month and the Cons will replace those with "tax credits" which don't work for the most of the working people in this country.

    As to how the Cons handled the Dykstra "situation", it won't count for much come the next election. It will be too far in the past, many who are part of the Con base won't care--just look south of the border--and in a lot of cases sexual harassment/assault is no big thing for some. The Dykstra "scandal" will be bird cage liner by next week. The federal Liberals won't even be using that as part of their election strategy.

    1. Hi e.a.f....I can accept that polling organizations can make mistakes. What bothers me is the growing feeling that some polls are designed to reach a conclusion those who pay for them desire. I'm not saying that was what happened in this case, but I'm sure Schmear would have welcomed a poll making him look like a winner instead of a loser. As for the Dykstra affair I think it will have a bigger impact than you do, especially if it ever goes to court. Remember it concerns the judgement, or lack of it, of not one but two Con parties. And for the first time Stephen Harper has been caught with his hands in the cookie jar. Trust me this scandal has legs, and I know I will be doing my best to make sure that it runs all the way to the next election...😎

  8. Jackie Blue2:13 PM

    I wonder if the percentage bump for the Crappers has to do with Islamophobic nonos who got miffed with Trudeau for calling them out at last week's memorial for the mosque massacre, and who want Scheer's loonie Canada goose-steppers to follow in Trump's footsteps to execute a Final Solution to the "Muslim problem." They'd really be stepping in it if that's the case. Apparently there's quite a few nonos in la belle province who believe that Trudeau is a traitor to his people and the antithesis of a native son (and who are not belles or beaux of the province in the least; in fact, they're spoiling the scenery and causing trouble for everyone else). Fortunately, I want to say they're outnumbered, not only by a diverse coalition of minorities and civic-minded small-L liberals of various ages, backgrounds and party affiliations, but white millennials too. But any number of bad apples can find their way to spoiling the whole bunch. And everyone knows how a cornered animal can spring when it perceives it's under threat.

    Anyone who really thinks of Scheer as the Crusader answer to what they see as Trudeau's Ganelon is seriously and dangerously misguided. Because they'd be right back under the yoke of Christian fascism if they take the bait. He's Duplessis with a smile. Considering the defensive reaction on the part of the cons after Trudeau's speech in Québec City, and their dismissive and hostile attitude and conspiratorial fear-mongering about M-103, I think it's time to brand them as the La Meute Party, and the Nono Party, in addition to already being the Rebel Party.

    Islamophobes like to mock the phrase Allah hu akbar, which is really a call to prayer but which has unfortunately become associated with a rallying cry and call to violent terrorism, by shouting "Admiral Ackbar" at Muslim bystanders and passers-by and trolling Muslims with it on social media. Well, obviously they didn't heed the Star Wars character's own most famous phrase, which certainly applies to falling for the siren song of conservative tribalism and racist bigotry as a plan to improve one's own lot in life. Quoth the admiral: "IT'S A TRAP!"

    1. Hi Jackie...I suppose anything is possible and anti-Muslim prejudice is a real problem. But remember most Quebecers are tolerant, and it's only in the Quebec City area and nearby rural areas that those ignorant bigots thrive. So I think it's just an outlier poll with some kind of methodology problem. That's not to say that bigotry couldn't become a bigger problem in the future, especially if some of the people the Trump hog wants to deport head for Canada. But that's why we need to be more aggressive in the way we deal with the Cons. Keep them off balance now, and it will be easier to destroy them later...

  9. yvonne4tn3:39 PM

    Simon I am constantly being polled by various groups and what most people do not understand is that people can be eliminated from taking polls if they do not fit the criteria of the polling firm that is eliminating you because of your age or sex or location. They tell you (politely) that they have reached their quota and so you are not eligible to take that poll. So is Forum eliminating TOO many people of a certain age or sex or location because Forum knows that whoever has commissioned the poll will not like the results?

    1. hi's funny you mentioned that, because I went back to take a look at that poll, and it seems there is no mention of the millennials, even though they are going to play a big role in the election. Since most millennials support our side, not factoring them in would alone distort the poll beyond repair...

    2. Visitor - Pierre D.10:22 AM

      Grenier did some research on the Forum polls, and it seems they pool older people (60-65+) and focus on Alberta and rural areas. Forum is also pretty much a dirty CON polling form. One sec I'll get you a link...
      Basically, IVR uses people with land lines, which tend to be much older...and you'd need a huge sample size, in the hundreds of thousands, to make up for that discrepancy.
      Just a dirty CON poll to boost dirty CON fortunes, it seems...

  10. Anonymous3:47 PM

    Every time the Cons ask when Trudeau is going to pay back his "illegal vacation" the Liberals should answer by asking questions like "when did Scheer find out about Dykstra?" or "when do you intend to punish all the Cons who have been subsidizing the Rebel?" No question should be answered without attacking those pigs.

    1. Hi anon@3:47PM.....That's a very good idea.Chagger Bardish was doing some of that last week, but Justin Trudeau never does, and I think that's a mistake. I realize he's a nice guy and it's hard for him to be nasty. But every now and then he should give the Con bullies a black eye to teach them some manners...🤕

  11. Anonymous10:19 PM

    The Cons are using the same playbook as the Repugnant-Cons did. The only difference is that their show boat was stolen by Trump at the last minute who took their wishy washy platform and turned it into hard crap with big walls,bans,deportations, climate legislation repeals etc. So far there is no Canadian Trump but don't rule it out in the future.

    The Con strategy is to relentlessly attack and document the opposition leader as a ( take your pick of crooked, stupid, terrorist favoring, immigrant loving,useless, elitist) while carefully avoiding publishing any policy platforms until the last minute to avoid any prolonged counter attack. The attack documentation all over You Tube and likely elsewhere although I have not checked. The strategy is to load up internet sites with false information and then use signal amplification to direct traffic to it near election time. The game plan is outlined in the link below where You Tube videos are pushed at you depending on the one you first watch. To test it out I ran two You Tube searches related to the "oil sands climate change hoax" and "oil sands climate change real". The "real" was a nothing burger but wow the "hoax" quickly went from persuasive pseudo science to Trudeau the horrible. No counter challenges just unlimited free reign Trudeau bashing and Smearmongel the savior with numerous clips of him battling the elitist, terrorist sympathizer in parliament. Question period staged to make attack ads with no counter response evident. Silence is definitely not a good strategy for the liberals. The link is

    1. Hi's obvious to me that the Cons are just baiting Trudeau by asking the same questions over and over again so they can rattle him and use different clips in their attack ads. Which just happens to be Hamish Marshall's specialty. So that MSN story should give us a good idea of what the next election campaign is going to look like. One thing I always do when I embed a YouTube video is disable the similar videos option since I don't want to spread videos I haven't screened. But as you point out, progressives ( and I include myself) better come up with their own video counter responses or they will regret it later....