Sunday, February 24, 2013

Could the Cons Really Rule Forever?

When I think of a fascist nightmare I usually think of Orwell, and Big Brother, and this famous line:

If you want a picture of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face—forever.

But now I've got another nightmare to worry about eh? The thought of the Con regime going on and on forever. 

Canada’s Conservatives will be the “perpetually dominant” ruling party this century because of a fundamental shift in society, says a new book by an eminent pollster and a political journalist.

“Politics in Canada is dividing along ideological lines, and those divisions will only grow sharper over time.” “We believe that fortune favors the Harper government in the next election. But we don’t believe this is about the next election. We believe it is about the next decade, the next generation, and beyond.

Which would be a pretty depressing thought if I believed it, but luckily I don't. I think it's all HOGWASH.

For starters, while it's true that Canada is dividing along ideological lines, this polarization can only hurt the Harper Cons. For they stand alone on the extreme right, in a country that doesn't share their values.

With these important caveats in mind, let me state clearly that there is virtually no plausible evidence in place to suggest that Canada is shifting to the right on social values. The success of parties of the right is not a product of a rightward shift nor is the presence of a right of centre party in Ottawa moving the public to the right.

Secondly they fail to take demographics into account. For while old people and first generation immigrants may tilt right, their children and other young Canadians don't, and they are the future.

Thirdly, Ibbitson and Bricker don't take into account the state of the economy. For while the Cons have benefited greatly from the false perception that they are good money managers, that easy ride may not last much longer.

And when the economy goes, the Cons will crash and burn.

Fourthly, they fail to consider the cumulative effect of all those scandals, and how they are slowly degrading the Con brand. Like acid on metal. Drip. Drip.Drip.

Or what might happen if some of those scandals blow up in their faces. Like this one still might.

Because that could change everything, and banish the Cons from power for a generation. Or until they get out of jail.

Fifthly, they completely ignore how the effects of climate change might change the political equation. For as those effects grow rapidly more dire, the Cons will be left on the wrong side of history. 

And will be made to pay a terrible price for their criminal inaction. Especially by the young who will inherit a scorched planet.

And whose anger will be beyond measure...

And lastly but not leastly, Ibbitson and Bricker give short thrift to what might happen when the growing ideological polarization forces progressives to UNITE.

As they surely will, when they finally realize that polarization means TWO not four or five.

And that if they don't unite, the Cons really could rule FOREVER.

Yup. When I think about it the future looks pretty bright. And all that ridiculous book proves is that John Ibbitson REALLY wants to be a senator.

John, John, wake up.

In my fascist nightmare, the Cons may be singing tomorrow belongs to me...

But in the real Canada eh?

We're still singing this one....

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  1. Anonymous8:03 AM

    If you would like to see a really depressing historic episode involving that cabaret piece see Spitting Image 1987 UK election night special. Hint. things don't end well for the left.

    1. hi anonymous...thanks for reminding me of that video, which of course marks the moment when the Thatcher Beast won her big majority,and took Britain and eventually the whole world down the drain. It didn't end well for most people in Britain. But what I wonder about most is why don't we see that kind of biting political satire here? Pity...

  2. Ibbitson's dreaming. Now that his book is out, expect him to double down on his Conservative propaganda in the G&M.

    1. hi Jymn...Ibbitson is capable of writing decent stuff on occasion, but when it comes to the Harperites absolutely hopeless. Blind to their outrageous behaviour, blind to the excesses of Capitalism, an absolute tool of a true believer. He seems to think that history is frozen, instead of a flowing river, and where that river goes depends on what happens. Oh well. I'd buy a remaindered copy to start the Victoria Day bonfire this year, but I'm saving up my money to buy Harper's Hockey book. It will be so wooden I'm sure it will burn nicely...... ;)

  3. Anonymous10:55 AM

    Even if the cons lose their majority in the commons, they will have a majority in the senate for some time still. And if the senate goes all obstructionist (think US republicans), then their 'effective' majority will continue....

    1. hi anonymous...the Senate could delay but not thwart the will of the Commons, but that's still another good reason to get rid of it. A stronger Senate would definitely clash with the Commons. So why not save ourselves further useless debate and just get rid of it...

  4. John B.1:40 PM

    I believe that the question has always been more about Harper than about “Canadian values” and “conservative values”.

    While you are probably correct in your prediction of the ultimate failure of conservative ideology, market libertarianism or whatever it is that is Harper’s vision to take permanent hold, I doubt that he cares whether it does. When he either gets what he wants, or determines that he’s taken us down his road as far as he can, he will proceed to his next stop or he will just go home. Did Brian Mulroney care? Did Mike Harris care?

    I believe that Harper’s greatest fear since taking on the party leadership was that he would never govern in a majority situation. If an effective opposition had been in place or a mature Governor General had been in office at the time of his first prorogation, we could have been rid of him then and he would have faced the humiliation of accepting a fellowship at the Fraser Institute with junior status to Preston and Chainsaw Mike. In other words, he would have been back where he started with the other kids in the mail room watching praises and rewards being heaped on lesser but senior men as he sharpened their pencils. Harper has already won his battle with history and we will continue to suffer the consequences long after he has departed.

    1. hi John're right that in our distracted and dumbed down society it is more about Harper than the ideology behind his actions. Unfortunately because he controls his image so effectively, people don't get a chance to see the real Harper, a crass, vulgar man, with a very bad temper who turns the air around him blue with swear words. And what worries me is that if you look at his career he takes more pleasure from destroying things, than he does in creating anything. So he has, in my opinion, a perverse desire to stay in power as long as he can.
      The damage has been done, but the sooner we get rid of him and his gang, the easier it will be to repair it....

  5. Anonymous2:06 PM

    Harper isn't a Conservative, how can Canadians miss that? No true Conservative would destroy this country, the way Harper has. Harper was Policy Chief for his, Northern Foundation Party of 1989. I think that is where his abusive dictatorship came from. Canada is a Democracy? Convince me? Canadians have no say, in what goes on in this country, what-so-ever.

    Harper is a Fascist monster of a Dictator. However, Canadians are known for, sleeping through absolutely everything. That is one thing Harper knows, he can count on for a certainty. Harper has no right to even live in this country, let alone govern.

    1. hi anonymous...In my opinion Harper is a small, petty, vindictive libertarian/conservative/christianist fanatic with the advantages and deficiencies of a clinical psychopath, and when you put it all together it's a very nasty mix for the dangerous times we live in...