Sunday, February 24, 2013
Could the Cons Really Rule Forever?
When I think of a fascist nightmare I usually think of Orwell, and Big Brother, and this famous line:
If you want a picture of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face—forever.
But now I've got another nightmare to worry about eh? The thought of the Con regime going on and on forever.
Canada’s Conservatives will be the “perpetually dominant” ruling party this century because of a fundamental shift in society, says a new book by an eminent pollster and a political journalist.
“Politics in Canada is dividing along ideological lines, and those divisions will only grow sharper over time.” “We believe that fortune favors the Harper government in the next election. But we don’t believe this is about the next election. We believe it is about the next decade, the next generation, and beyond.
Which would be a pretty depressing thought if I believed it, but luckily I don't. I think it's all HOGWASH.
For starters, while it's true that Canada is dividing along ideological lines, this polarization can only hurt the Harper Cons. For they stand alone on the extreme right, in a country that doesn't share their values.
With these important caveats in mind, let me state clearly that there is virtually no plausible evidence in place to suggest that Canada is shifting to the right on social values. The success of parties of the right is not a product of a rightward shift nor is the presence of a right of centre party in Ottawa moving the public to the right.
Secondly they fail to take demographics into account. For while old people and first generation immigrants may tilt right, their children and other young Canadians don't, and they are the future.
Thirdly, Ibbitson and Bricker don't take into account the state of the economy. For while the Cons have benefited greatly from the false perception that they are good money managers, that easy ride may not last much longer.
And when the economy goes, the Cons will crash and burn.
Fourthly, they fail to consider the cumulative effect of all those scandals, and how they are slowly degrading the Con brand. Like acid on metal. Drip. Drip.Drip.
Or what might happen if some of those scandals blow up in their faces. Like this one still might.
Because that could change everything, and banish the Cons from power for a generation. Or until they get out of jail.
Fifthly, they completely ignore how the effects of climate change might change the political equation. For as those effects grow rapidly more dire, the Cons will be left on the wrong side of history.
And will be made to pay a terrible price for their criminal inaction. Especially by the young who will inherit a scorched planet.
And whose anger will be beyond measure...
And lastly but not leastly, Ibbitson and Bricker give short thrift to what might happen when the growing ideological polarization forces progressives to UNITE.
As they surely will, when they finally realize that polarization means TWO not four or five.
And that if they don't unite, the Cons really could rule FOREVER.
Yup. When I think about it the future looks pretty bright. And all that ridiculous book proves is that John Ibbitson REALLY wants to be a senator.
John, John, wake up.
In my fascist nightmare, the Cons may be singing tomorrow belongs to me...
But in the real Canada eh?
We're still singing this one....
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