Monday, December 10, 2018

How A Poll Almost Ruined The Start Of My Holiday Season

As you can probably tell from the sporadic state of my blogging, I am rapidly approaching Christmas mode, where I try to think about only nice things, and have as much fun as possible. 

So when I was skating the other day, I was dreaming about how at this time next year, the Cons will be splattered all over the ice.

Judging by the way their polls have been tanking.

Only to go home, and get a horrible shock.

It seems the Cons aren't tanking, they're heading for a majority!!!

The federal Conservative party would win a majority is an election was held today, a new poll shows. In a recent random sampling, 43% said they would vote conservative, while 34% would cast a Liberal ballot. 

“The Conservatives have a strong and steady lead over the Liberals as we go into the New Year,” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, president of Forum Research, which conducted the survey.

And I must admit I was stunned. How could this be? One moment the Cons were trailing by about six points in all the other polls. And now just a few days later they're leading by nine?

And so soon after that great economic news. 

Which left Scheer looking like an idiot... 

And left me wondering, do Canadians really want that loser for Prime Minister?

Then I realized it was in the Sun, it was a Forum poll. And I read what Eric Grenier had to say about that:

And how Forum polls compared to others:

And what Angus Johnson also had to say.

And then I read this and I wasn't worried anymore.

For there is no way that more millennials would be supporting the Cons than the Liberals. Or that almost as many women would be supporting the Harper Party than the Trudeau Party.

And then I felt much better. The universe is unfolding as it should again.

Remind me to get some balloons for my massive humble Christmas party.

And let the holiday season begin...


  1. Jackie Blue1:57 PM

    Why doesn't Grenier drop Forum/Sun from the aggregate if they're basically the equivalent of Rasmussen or Fox News? CTV ran a Twitter poll that purportedly showed 86% of Canadians rejected the U.N. Migration Compact. That's basically the equivalent of a BuzzFeed personality quiz asking which hockey mascot fits your astrological sign. The Cons/GOP really do occupy their own special universe, with their own fuzzy math, revisionist history and alternative facts. Trump gave himself an "A plus plus plus" as president and has already declared he's going to get cheated out of a Nobel Peace Prize too. Perhaps Scheer is getting the same report card from the Canadian equivalent of Karl Rove.

    1. Hi Jackie...I don't know why Grenier doesn't drop Forum, but I'm sure he weights it accordingly. And we have to see whether other polls confirm or deny Forum's findings, for the latest Nanos poll isn't too encouraging. Something nasty is stirring out there, and we need to be prepared to fight it harder than we ever have....

  2. This is not to say we should rest on our laurels. The only poll that matters is election day, and the Liberals need to make a compelling case to vote for them. the cons will continue to go neg and that resonates with a lot of simpletons, like the ones concerned with the non-binding migrant compact.

    1. Hi Frank....You're right. I always seek to encourage progressives, and my Scottish blood does tend to make me more sure of our victory than perhaps I should be. But I am a realist, I realize the power of bigotry, and that we can never underestimate the evil of the Cons and the bestial ignorance of some Canadians...

  3. Anonymous6:49 PM

    My theory is that Scheer needed a good poll to make it look like he could win the next election, and keep more Cons from defecting to Mad Max Bernier. So magically it happened. Who needs a fairy godmother when you’ve got Forum?

    1. Hi certainly must have been like manna from heaven for our would be Pope Scheer. A veritable miracle come to show him that racism and hate are godly. And it could hurt Bernier because so many of his shabby flock are nothing more than crass opportunists. But in the Spring when the battle for Canada officially begins, we shall see who has the advantage. And I am still convinced that if we fight hard enough we will crush the Cons...

  4. Ah. I see you haven't seen the most recent Nanos poll yet.

    1. Hi A Kisaragi Colour...I didn't seen the latest Nanos poll until this morning. And I just finished a short post to explain what I believe might be happening. The Cons have managed to scare a lot of Canadians with their talk on border "erasure." But when the truth is revealed, it should serve to bury them...

  5. e.a.f.11:47 PM

    When polls reflect bad news for you, just consider this, the only polls which count is the one on election day. We have also noted of late, these past few years, polls have not been accurate.

    Doesn't matter what Scheer says, families receive those cheques each and every month for their children. The Cons don't send cheques, never have, never will. they give tax credits which only help those who have taxable incomes. So liven up, all is not lost. You have Christmas to have fun with and forget about blogging and concentrate on Christmas, skating, etc.