With just three days to go before the Cons choose a new leader, I see that Rona Ambrose is still trying to whip up some interest in the event.
Still claiming that she was always planning to leave.
“If I was going to stay in politics, I would have run for the full leadership. I made that choice then. I knew I was going to leave.”
And still insisting that her decision to run for the exit had nothing to do with the dilapidated state of the Harper Party.
But the Cons are not in good shape. With thirteen leadership candidates their party could easily be blown to pieces.
And as I've been pointing out recently, most recent polls don't match Ambrose's sunny view, and neither does this one.
In an election held today, the Conservatives would win 27% of the vote, down 5 points from their result on Election Day 2015. For the last 18 months, the average support for the Conservative Party has been 28%.
The Cons are stuck in a rut, the party is split between religious fanatics and racist bigots. The leading candidate likes to be called Mad Max.
But is better known in Quebec as the boob from the Beauce...
The Cons also can't count on the NDP to split the progressive vote, as they have in the past, because so far at least they're also not going anywhere...
48% would consider voting NDP today. That number is well below the 60% achieved during the run-up to the last election and lower than the 52% we found just before the vote. In the intervening months, the NDP accessible voter pool has shrunk. At one point the NDP potential pool was 20 points bigger than that of the Conservative Party, today that gap is basically zero.
And to make matters worse, the Cons are losing their demographic advantage.
For many years, the Conservatives had a built-in electoral advantage: if they trailed the Liberals among younger voters, they more than made up for that by having an advantage among older voters, who were more numerous, and who turned out at a higher rate to cast a ballot. Today, we see the Conservatives trailing the Liberals by more than 10 points among voters over 45, by 16 points among those 30-44 and by 28 points among those under 30.
At a time when the millennial generation is preparing to make its presence felt.
Further complicating the electoral math for the party is the fact that by 2019, Millennials (those born between 1980 and 2000) will be the largest segment of the electorate. This will be the first time in over 40 years that Boomers will not make up the largest portion of the electorate.
And for many of that generation Trudeau is their natural leader...
One they can relate to, and have fun with...
And one they will almost certainly help return to power with another crushing majority...
I know the Trudeau haters will be tearing out their hair, or their haemorrhoids.
Or threatening his wife.
As only they can.
But I enjoy their pain. Demography is destiny.
And it seems that the future will belong to us....
15 comments:
When I heard Rona Ambrose was leaving......I thought....hmmmm Smart Woman!
Careful Simon, media has been working hard to hype the empty headed and vain Jagmeet Singh because he is handsome and appeared in GQ. The Con Media knows that the only hope for the Cons is for the dippers to go up. This man has no positions on pipelines, softwood lumber, or trade despite prepping for a year to run for the party.
Cool stuff! I am sure Trudeau will lead us to Manchester levels of multiculturalism and diversity. Cultural enrichment for all!
-MC
She had great hair but positions that would not support it.
In my opinion Rona Ambose did a decent job as the leader of the opposition. It was her job to oppose and she did it. It is unfortunate the Conservatives do not have a better field of candidates because they do represent Canadians in 100 ridings. Whether we agree with them or not, they represent the opinions/feelings of a lot of Canadians. Canadians need a place to make their mark on election day. if there is no place, they drift away and become more and more detached from the political world around them.
We may not care for the policies of the Conservatives but they are policies which are supported by a lot of Canadians. For a democracy to thrive and be vibrant we need at least 4 solid parties. Its how democracy works. right now the majority of us are happy with Trudeau, but what if he took after his father and took a walk in the snow in 10 years and were replaced by someone very different, very corrupt, very whatever. If there were no vibrant opposition parties the country could go down hill very quickly. We have only to look south of our border.
In England the major opposition parties seem to be going nowhere fast and what do they have? Theresa May. There isn't much keeping her and her party in check either. That is another role opposition parties do, they keep the party in power in check.
So I'd like to thank Rona Ambrose for her service to Canada. In my opinion she is a far better leader than those running for the leadership and I think people are going to miss her.
Thanks for the beautiful photos, Simon, and mention of...'natural governing party'- I've heard of that.
Why did Rona jump ship? Was it when she saw the leading hopeful rip out the oil fired engines and rudder only to replace it with a tattered sail and a couple of oars.Perhaps it was when she discovered the destination map had been altered and her cherished vision of returning to the era of king oil, bra burning and big hair had been replaced by a semitransparent capitalistic utopia hovering on the edge of reality. Whatever the reason she quickly flipped through the Con library of old double speak crusades such as religious freedom, fair elections,friends of science, economic action and decided to add a new one. Think Tank here she comes!
RT
Your attempt at humour by bringing up Manchester is like attributing the Quebec City Mosque murders to all right wing white racist assholes.
JD
hi Kathleen...as you may know I used to call Rona Ambrose the village idiot. But yes you're probably right. Leaving the sinking Con ship is probably the smartest thing she has done....
hi anon....yes, there is no doubt that Jagmeet Singh could prove more of a challenge to Justin Trudeau than any other of the NDP or Con leadership candidates. But as you point out his policy positions are nonexistent, so at the present time at least it's just style over substance. And the NDP has to choose him as their leader, and that is not a sure thing....
hi MC...please don't link Trudeau to the monstrous terrorist act in Manchester. The fact that the British have been hit several times, while we have all but been spared tells you something about the differences between those two countries. And what has protected us so far is our multiculturalism and our diversity. In Britain they were not as successful as us, and now they are paying a terrible price...
hi Steve... I don't think that Rona Ambrose ever had an original idea that ever became law. She was a shameless Harper stooge, and followed every dictate of his like a character out of the Handmaid's Tale...
hi e.a.f....Well you are free to thank Rona for whatever you want. As I have pointed out many times her resistance to the fight against opioids helped contribute to the deaths of thousands of Canadians. So I don't think she should be honoured, I think she should be jailed....
hi liberalandlovingit....your welcome, I enjoyed them too. Some of the swine in the Con media are making honky noises about that encounter. But I like a prime minister that doesn't act like Harper did, and is friendly, and enjoys the company of young people.
The whole progressive world is green with envy, but some grumpy people in this country just don't get it, and would rather we all be miserable. Good luck with that one....
hi RT....I think she jumped ship for all the reasons you mention. She saw that the Cons aren't going anywhere, at least for the next election cycle. She saw where people like Kellie Leitch are taking the party, and realized many Canadians are now calling the Harper Party the Bigot Party.
So while she made her resignation sound like some noble gesture, the reality is she saw the writing on the wall, and is running for cover...
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