Stephane Dion and the Disaster in Quebec

When I watched Stephane Dion's sad little speech in Outremont tonight... and noticed how stunned he looked....I thought that he had FINALLY....at long last.....realized....how much Quebecers hate him. And why.

But I was wrong. He still doesn't get it.

Dion maintained a brave face as his party suffered a complete shutout. "We must be really proud that the parties that believe in Canada are stronger tonight," he said to a subdued crowd of Liberal supporters.

Huh? Nothing like turning a Liberal disaster into a federalist triumph...in a province like Quebec.

He still doesn't understand that when Harper declared Quebec a nation it changed EVERYTHING. It weakened the Bloc...because who needs a referendum when you can get more powers and the autonomy you want handed to you on a plate?

And who needs the Liberals when they've got NOTHING to offer...except a wonky professor still fighting the old referendum battles. Still stuck in the old Canada ...while Harper is offering them a brand new one.

Liberals like Jason Cherniak may not understand that. And look for all kinds of bizarre excuses.

Although I did like the way Jason started an earlier and short (very short) live blog....

9:10

We're winning in Outremont and close to 10% in the other ridings.

9:15

We're losing

But no amount of ignorance or denial can change the cold hard facts.

One...the Conservatives are gaining ground in Quebec...outside of Montreal. While the Liberals are losing ground everywhere...and could soon become just the party of the anglophones....and practically irrelevant. The NDP may be just a flash in the pan. But the Liberals are going south.

Two Stephane Dion can't do ANYTHING about that. He is crippled by what he did in the past... and who he is today.

And three...the moment has never been better in Quebec for Stephen Harper to trigger an election and pick up the seats he needs to form a majority government.

I don't know what's going to happen next. Look for Gilles Duceppe to twist himself into a pretzel trying to explain why he can't bring down the government....over ANYTHING.

Listen for the Liberal knives to start sharpening...as the mists of denial lift... and panic sets in.

I don't know what twist this story is going to take next. But after tonight...unless the Liberal Party is hit by a tsunami of reality.

I do know how it's going to end...