Wednesday, August 25, 2021

The Unbearable Lightness of the Loser Erin O'Toole

I can only imagine how Erin O'Toole must be feeling. He was only eight-years-old when he told his classmates he was going to be Prime Minister.

And now he must be feeling he's almost there.

The Liberals and Conservatives are now running in a statistical dead heat, as Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole continues to gain momentum as a candidate among initially hesitant Canadians, according to nightly tracking conducted by Nanos Research for CTV News and the Globe and Mail.

But sadly for him, it looks like that giddy feeling is not going to last long.

The clock is already striking midnight.

And other polls are already more favourable to the Liberals are popping up all over the place…

And then there's this little nugget buried in that Abacus poll.

About two-thirds of Conservative, BQ, and Liberal supporters say their mind is made up (69%, 67%, and 63%), while less than half of NDP (47%) and Green (42%) supporters say they are locked into their choice.

Among these soft NDP and Green supporters, 79% would prefer Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister over Erin O’Toole and 83% would prefer some form of Liberal government while 17% would prefer a Conservative government of some form.

Which suggests that large numbers of NDP and Green supporters are already prepared to jump to the Liberals to avoid a Con government.

Especially now that the Cons have made the survival of medicare an issue, by taking aim at this video.

Claiming the Liberals had edited it to make it look like he didn't support medicare.

Only to have O'Toole end up admitting that he favours a two-tier medical system.

Responding to Liberal claims that a government led by him would privatize parts of the public health-care system, Conservative Leader Erin O'Toole said Tuesday that he supports the current system — but wants to see more private sector "innovation" to improve outcomes. 

And as for his claim that “I support a public and universal system. Full stop.”

It was given a Truth Test, and once again the loser O'Toole failed miserably.

“I would say that introducing more private pay into the health system undermines our universal public health care, regardless of whether or not you’re saying you’re still going to allow for universal access,” says Dr. Melanie Bechard, chair of Canadian Doctors for Medicare.

“We have a limited number of doctors, nurses, health professionals in Canada. So, when you create these private clinics, you’re not actually taking pressure off the public system, you’re taking professionals away from the public system … which then leads to longer wait times in the public system which is the point of access for far more Canadians,” she says.

Proposing a parallel private system to reduce wait times “is like seeing your house is on fire and throwing a bucket of gasoline on it,” Bechard adds. 

Can you believe it? He's being made to look like a dangerous idiot by people who know what they are talking about.

And according to the latest Nanos report that may already be undermining his numbers. 

The Liberals’ repeated attacks against the Conservatives concerning Canada’s public health-care system might be working, in the words of Nanos Research’s Nik Nanos, who says the party has been enjoying increasing support in recent days.

According to the latest nightly tracking conducted by Nanos Research for CTV News and The Globe and Mail, support for the Liberals is at 35.9 per cent, the Conservatives are at 32.7 per cent, and the NDP have dropped down to 16.8 per cent. 

And as a bonus, leaving the hapless Con stooge Jagmeet Singh running after his own bus... 

While the Liberals’ support appears to be trending in a positive direction, Nanos said the opposite is true for the NDP. 

According to the nightly tracking data over the past couple of days, the NDP’s share of support has decreased as the Liberals’ share has increased.

You know, there can be no doubt that Justin Trudeau got off to a slow start, by being too nice to his opponents, even as they smeared him like only those Con swine could. 

But I think he has learned his lesson. 

And if keeps hammering them on everything from medicare to climate change.

When the final bell goes.

He will be the winner...


ottlib said...

Sorry Simon but one of my pet peeves in Canadian politics is this notion that there is the big pool of voters out there, who would prefer to vote NDP but who vote Liberal to prevent a Conservative government.

I call it the myth of strategic voting. Certainly strategic voting does happen but not on such a scale as to really impact an election that much.

Each party has their base. Then there is a portion of the electorate who swing back and forth between parties. That swing can be any combination of all of the parties because these swing voters have absolutely no loyalty to any one party. However, in general, the largest pool of swing voters believe the only two parties capable of governing this country are the Liberals and Conservatives. The next time the Conservatives win it will be because these swing voters decided to turf the Liberals. If the Liberals win this election it will be because they decided not to change the government.

Keep in mind that when the Liberals won in 2015 most of their new supporters had voted Conservative in 2011, not NDP. Yes, some that supported the Dippers decided to vote Liberal as well but their impact was not nearly as large.

The Liberals want to repeat their 2015 support among the Conservative/Liberal swing voters. It is how they are going to win a majority. They will take any Liberal/NDP swing voters as well but if they lose the majority of the Con/Lib swingers any voter advantage they have with the Lib/Dip swingers will be meaningless.

Riley's sister said...

Wrong Ottlib, I and most of my friends are all former NDP supporters and none of us can vote NDP because of the need to ensure the Conservatives do not get in. And none of us are swingers.

Jackie Blue said...

NDP are the New Disgusting Party. Contrary to Paul Wells' deceitful pontificating out his ass, Singh has not ruled out lending confidence to O'Toole. He is a disingenuous, fake progressive fuckhead leading a misogynistic class-myopic party of Bernie Bro swine.

This article is damning, because Singh's equivocation all but proves the one thing that NDP diehards get mad at Liberals for pointing out: a vote for the NDP is a vote for the Cons. The Liberals should be retweeting this article rapid fire and calling Singh to answer for it. Fame has clearly gone to his head and he cares more about craven power than he does doing right by Canadians. This is disqualifying and I hope he loses seats for it on election night.

Your uterus and your public healthcare are fare more important than Jaggy the Jock and Outhouse O'Toole high-fiving each other and slapping each other on the back to go after the toxic testosterone segment of the population. Decent enlightened men who value and respect women should vote Liberal because the NDP have proven that they are no friends to gender equity. They're Jacobin jackboots is what they are, nothing but Cons in Che Guevara T-shirts.

Jackie Blue said...

OT but who is PAYING for anti-vax Nazi sympathizers to heckle and harass the prime minister??? He seems to be taking it in stride but this is not something to be dismissed or downplayed. Police authorities and Elections Canada need to investigate these astroturf hecklers and where they're coming from, not only because of election interference but because another sausage maker might very well be among the crowd.

I know Justin has tight security, but it only takes one person to irrevocably alter the course of history. Please don't let him get hurt.

Jackie Blue said...

Simon, I'm panicking about the polls again. Maggi says the Cons are back in the lead and 338 says the seat projection is now TIED.

What happened? I thought Nanos had the Liberals doing OK again after hitting O'Toole on healthcare? And Trudeau just announced a very progressive tax on big banks! The Monsef thing couldn't have moved numbers already did it????????

Jackie Blue said...

Simon, it's over. I can't look anymore. I'm crying again.

Frank Graves just tweeted he sees a startling advantage for Cons over Liberals. He even said their trajectory has them on track for a majority. Looks like that brief head above water was just a blip of noise. People are going to punish Trudeau for no good reason and end up punishing the whole country as a result.

Jagmeet already knows what he's posturing for. He's going to tag team with the enemy because he senses blood in the water.

I love you Justin. Please, if anyone gets to see him after this, tell him he can still come to America. We love him here. I love him.

Good night Simon, good luck and goodbye. 😢 💔

Anonymous said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Jackie Blue said...

And now Nanos confirms the trend. I need to dig out my copy of Elizabeth Kubler Ross' book on the stages of grief.

But I also just want to say that whoever the fuck convinced Trudeau to do this is either a complete hack, or a plant, who did not have Trudeau's, the Liberal Party's or the country's best interests at heart. Butts is no longer working on campaigns after JWR and Fife chased him out. So he gets advice from someone else that seems OK on the surface, but turns out to be disastrous.

I want names, I want to know who did this and I want that person to be blackballed from ever working on any political campaign in Canada ever again. Justin Trudeau has done a damn good job and he deserves better than this.

I am hurting right now, I am sad and I am angry. I can't even imagine how Justin Trudeau must feel and my heart is breaking for him, because he's going to lose everything and so will Canada.

I want you guys all to know I've really enjoyed being a part of the community here. I still hope to get to meet Justin in person someday, and just let him know how much he really is appreciated even if it doesn't look that way. This isn't his fault. He's a good man and a good leader. If Canada doesn't want him anymore, I can tell you he'd be more than welcome down here.

Anonymous said...

The Cons are masters at using political convention against their foe. Normally the spirit of a political platform and details align but not so with the Cons. The spirit says in inclusive caring secure journey into the future the details say something entirely different. Doublespeak at its finest.
Political convention dictates their competitors cannot directly challenge the double meaning so we end up with a long convoluted dance in an attempt to subtly convince the general public that the Conservative political platform is not what it appears to be. Although there are others the best example of this is the " A detailed plan to tackle climate change" although the motion to accept the scientific reality of climate change was rejected at their March 2021 Conservative Party Policy Convention. How can a political party have a climate change action plan when they do not believe it is real? All is possible with doublespeak! I really like the climate action parts where they are going to use modular nuclear reactors to heat the water to extract tarry oil, restore west coast shipping routes, loan native communities billions to enter into resource extraction business ventures and hand out swift justice to anyone that blocks access regardless of reason.


Jackie Blue said...

I thought Canada on the average was better than this too. Instead we get cruel, juvenile statements mocking the "boy prince." Shame on you.

I don't ever again want to see any smug finger-pointing that we were stupid enough to elect Trump. Canada, your hockey mask is coming off and there is an ugly, ugly face underneath.

It's not everyone of course. But it's enough. And that includes especially those who call themselves "progressives" but who are just as craven for power as the absolute worst fascists of the right.

As an American I was hoping to escape here knowing full well what's coming down the line in 2022 and 2024. But now I reserve the right to point the finger right back and say, don't ever call yourselves better than us Yanks when you're more than capable of throwing good people away for no damn good reason.

You had your chance and you blew it. No one will ever take Canadian moral superiority seriously ever again and it won't be because of Trudeau that you lose your standing in the world. He wanted to build back better, but there are apparently a lot of selfish, small-minded people who just want Canada to be a backwater sniping from the cheap seats. I tried, as an American to warn about complacency and not letting what happened here, happen up there. But I guess there are a lot of people up there who don't give a shit as long as they get to dunk on the "boy prince." Thus ruining the dreams for everyone else.

All I can say as the iceberg moves towards crashing is: Never let it be forgot, that once there was a spot, that was known as Canalot.

Simon said...

Hi Ottlib... You've worked in the polling business, but I have to say that I know quite a few NDP switchers, and in fact one myself. Furthermore if voting for the NDP was the only way to stop the misogynistic, racist, homophobic, and planet burning Cons I would do it without hesitation....

Simon said...

Hi Jackie....When I hear the word Maggi all I can think about is the Swiss food company. And a delicious potato soup I used to make myself when working long hours at university. So I don't really care what Maggi or any of the other pollsters have to say at this stage in the campaign. As I said in my post, O'Toole got off to a quick start but I doubt his advantage will last long. We are only in week one of the campaign, many Canadians are enjoying their summer holiday, so there is no use panicking. Cheer up and enjoy your summer too...

Simon said...

Hi Riley's Sister....I'm with you. And now that Singh has said he could prop up a Con government we have even more reason not to vote for the NDP. And if the race continues to be as tight as it is, we won't be the only ones...

Simon said...

Hi RT....The Cons with the help of their gang of foreign advisors are trying to turn reality on its head. As you point out, their position on climate change is farcical. Unfortunately our Con media isn't doing a thing to expose this outrageous political fraud. But where I live it's supposed to feel as hot as 41 degrees today, so if the Cons can pull this off they will deserve their glorious majority, and the yokels who believed them will deserve what's coming to them...

Simon said...

Hi Jackie...I removed the comment from the Con who called Trudeau the "boy prince." Cons will be Cons but not on my blog...

Anonymous said...

Simon, I think you banned me. I don't know why. Anyway, I wrote before that I will petition the EU to cancel the free trade agreement with Canada if the conservatives win... I hope you will let me write this, because I realise what you are saying...yes, the media in Canada is very anti-liberal... I agree with this!

Jackie Blue said...

It's not just Tool, or the media running interference for him by letting him portray himself as a phony "moderate" just to get rid of the hated Trudeau. It's the goddamn premiers putting their thumb on the scale. Dug and Jason by hiding out in hopes political amnesia will propel Tool to government, and now Legault by getting in a tiff that Trudeau dared try to implement national standards to protect vulnerable people, thus intruding upon Quebec's specialness. He also talked about cultural assimilation and the necessity for Quebec to decide how many refugees Quebec takes in. In other words 0, because they're brown and Muslim. Muh state's rights. People are dying, goddamn it. Nobody gives a fuck about the '95 referendum. Asshole.

Canada is really revealing itself as an ungovernable settler petrostate where the #1 renewable energy resource is male ego and bullshit. That Jagmeet and his merry band of token woke activists like Matthew Green and Leah Gazan are comfortable letting this cancer spread all over Canada while attacking Trudeau as the devil incarnate, proves them to be nothing but power-hungry racists themselves. Yes, that's right, I'll say it again and I don't care.

Purity trolls can wank on and on about Trudeau's yearbook ad nauseam but IDGAF at this point. Brown people can absolutely be racists too if they're willing to give racists a free ride in exchange for selfish gains or power. Jagmeet Singh and by extension his caucus, are racist by propping up Aryan "Secure the Future" O'Toole. Tool doesn't care about Indigenous people, says it's time to raise the flag again because reconciliation is getting old and boring already and it's getting in the way of declaring our patriotic pride. US-eh, US-eh, US-eh. Jagmeet supports this. Jagmeet talks ugly words and claims that Trump of all people did more to address racism than Trudeau. It's complete bullshit because Jagmeet is a racist.

Visitor - Pierre D. said...

Jackie, the LPC would still form government according to projected seat counts, with 142-150 seats. EVEN if the CPC got more seats, LPC would get first chance at forming government, likely a Coalition Government with the NDP and Bloc, which would put us exactly where we were prior to the writ being dropped.

No need to bring in U.S./Canada comparatives, the two are brothers/sisters from different fathers, more or less.

The trendlines are showing the LPC rising, the CPC dipping, both slightly. It will be this way for another 3-4 weeks...and in the end, an LPC minority government, most likely.

Now, back to my mac & cheese prep...

Cathie from Canada said...

There will be a lot of switching around, I believe, before election day, and I expect a few September Surprises too.
In the long run, O'Toole will prove himself to be the weak and easily trampled leader we already know he is -- I just hope Canadians see this before they make the final decision on who to vote for.

ottlib said...

Riley's sister and Simon...I am not saying that strategic voting does not exist but it is not as widespread as many think it is. I also know people who have voted NDP in the past but voted Liberal in an attempt to prevent a Conservative government. Then again, some of them also voted Liberal in 2015 because they liked Justin Trudeau, they liked what the Liberals were offering and they disliked Mr. Mulcair.

Since this election started I have strived to provide perspective on it because it is very easy to become lost in the weeds of each daily development.

So with that in mind I would say that the media and the pollsters consider politics to be a game and people lose interest in a game when it is a blowout. For months that is what it was looking like and then on the day the election is called the pollsters conveniently show that it is not. Suddenly, they are having people poring over their polls and the media has something that can drive interest and clicks. (And revenue, elections are great money makers for the media but only if they are interesting.)

Are the polls reflecting reality? Probably to a certain extent yes. It is inevitable for the party that starts an election in the lead to see that lead degrade somewhat. Has the Liberal lead degraded to the point indicated by the pollsters? We cannot really know for certain. The only data we have are the public pollsters. There really is no other source of data to look at. For a host of reasons I have articulated on this blog (Thanks Simon for letting me) as well as my own blog I do not believe they are an accurate reflection of reality. I could be wrong but there is no way to prove it one way or another. (Sweet gig to be the only source of "truth". Kind of lets you decide what is the "truth".)

Come September 20, the game will end. Canadians will decide whether they want to change government or not, go behind the cardboard divider and articulate their choice. Remarkably, what a group of pollsters and pundits said on day 12 of the election campaign will not be considered in making that decision.

Jackie Blue said...

Pierre, where do you see the trend lines rising? All I see are the aggregators showing the Liberals completely hitting the dirt. The guy from Lean Tossup says it's an anomaly of phone polls with non-representative daily samples surveying Ontario when many people are at the cottage. I like his theory as a form of "copium" but I can't quite convince myself of it.

Constitutional convention holds that if Trudeau can still command the confidence of government, he has the right to make an attempt. However, pragmatic politics and tradition holds differently: if he does not win the most seats he will most likely resign on election night. Even if the total of Liberal + NDP amounts to at least 170. The expectation and common understanding (reinforced by a media thet fosters constitutional ignorance) is that he would have "lost" and therefore must take a walk in the snow. Anything else would register howls of stealing a rigged election (speaking of US comparisons).

Singh will not coalesce with Trudeau in any case, as he has already left open the option of doing so with the tool. The media has framed this as he is picking a winning horse. Remember the NDP's goal is to supplant the Liberals as the sole option for the anti-conservative vote, as with Labour in the UK. He doesn't care if childcare gets ripped up as it'll just be another "broken Liberal promise" he can fundraise on. He wants to see the Liberals tear themselves apart again with another leadership struggle, even if it means another ten years of Con governments. Eventually Canadians would come around and elect a revolutionary NDP government at last, is the idea.

Never mind that it hasn't happened in 30 years in Ontario, which has never recovered from Harris and never will from Ford. The same thing would be the case federally under Erin O'Harper. But the NDP are just fine with that as long as they get to shame "LibCons" and heckle with moral superiority from the cheap seats.

I just can't be as complacent about the eventual results as some on this board have been.

Pierre D. said...

I don't think any of us are "complacent", it's just too early in.
We haven't had either debate, and the election is in...25 days, three weeks and some nighty nights.

Polls are pretty crazy right now. Ekos has the CPC at 37% support (!) and the Liberals at 29% (!!) which seems...absolutely impossible.
As for the trendlines, Nanos himself said the LPC was trending up, and Abacus Data has them consistently at +4 over the CPC.

As for the NDP, they propped up the LPC and voted against CPC motions.
They are a party of the centre-left that occasionally drifts right.
I don't think Singh wants to be the one to sell the country down the river, AGAIN...since Smilin' Jack did that as well, but the good thing is he will get ZERO seats in QC, so if the LPC can steal 10-15 seats from the Bloc (very doable...) then we're where we started.

And yes, too many people are petty and jealous of Justin Trudeau because their squalid lives and relationships give them no satisfaction...

Anonymous said...

Hi Jackie

Agree the NDP certainly see themselves as the Con replacements in the long run and based on historical norms this could be the case. However, these are not normal times where the electorate can vote in a party that are offering shiny new trinkets and vote the bums out in 4 years time if they do not deliver. Trump has shown us how its done. Although he masked it in Apprentice style showmanship there are only 2 ingredients necessary a) politicise the supreme court and trample individual rights b) destroy public confidence in the vote. Once a public confidence in individual rights and a fair and impartial election process are destroyed the alternatives are authoritarian or communal regimes. The Cons are fully there on the authoritarian side whereas the NDP are not yet fully awakened on the communal side. But as in the US the Cons will be the victors once the center has been destroyed. Harper launched failed attacks on the supreme court and election fairness but it took Trump to show them how its done. The Canadian Cons have no intention of fumbling the ball second time around. Like a moth to a flame perhaps we will collectively have to go there but given the evidence we should be smarter.


Jackie Blue said...


But Nanos said the LPC were trending up on that one blip day when he attributed it to the healthcare messaging. Then this morning, the Cons swung back to 33-30. Now Mainstreet has the same numbers as EKOS, meanwhile Abacus hasn't released for a week. Scrimshaw and Fournier both had takes about whether or not the method of the polling itself produces different results (Muskoka cottages notwithstanding). Which means nobody has any idea what's accurate.

What does appear clear is that they're losing the air war 1/3 of the way into the campaign, and one way or another it shows up in the polls. He can't keep relying on the media to do PR. Trudeau has made countless announcements, yet all they can talk about is how he failed on Afghanistan, and how Tool is such a moderate centrist and Jaggy is so sunny ways, and shame on surly Trudeau for going negative it must mean he's desperate. It's OK when both of them attack and lie though.

I have no idea what's going on, but I'm petrified of an ugly (non)surprise in September. I can only hope the Liberals either have better internals, and/or are taking into account the possibility if things went sideways this fast in two weeks, they can shift around completely over the next two. I'm incredibly skeptical however. After reading this article, it makes me wonder if they aren't in a bubble.

ottlib said...

Pierre D...Thanks for the great comment. I agree that we are 24 days away from the election. In normal times a day can be a lifetime in politics. 24 days during the writ period is practically infinity.

As you say Nic Nanos is saying the Liberals are trending upwards while Frank Graves is saying something different. Which one do you believe?

It is also interesting that the conventional polls are showing the Liberals with a relatively comfortable lead but the rolling polls show the opposite. Which ones do you believe? Both methodologies have their strengths and weaknesses so you really cannot say one is better or more accurate than the other. It just shows that the methodology of any survey can impact the results in such a way as to call into question whether it is representing reality. It would seem the polls are saying we have two versions of reality. Which one is valid? And that is not taking into account that there could be a third reality that the polls are completely missing.

I know it seems hopeless and make no mistake no one is complacent but I have lost count of the number of times the early polls have said one thing only to be completely wrong when they count the actual votes weeks later. Are we seeing the beginning of a trend that will take Erin O'Toole to the government benches? It is possible but the question is: Is it probable? We will know in just over three weeks but my gut still says no.

Jackie Blue said...

They're doing digital dirty work to hide from critical questions. Guys, this is serious. They're planning to steal the election by avoiding going out into the real world and cloistering O'Toole with fake earned media and data mining.

Watch "The Great Hack" for how Cambridge Analytics did this very same thing. It's not just the boys in short pants. It's the lie machine that put BoJo and Trump in office. This is unchartered terrain and the Grits need to fight fire with fire!