Saturday, August 21, 2021

Could The Cons Really Win The Election?

When I fell out of bed this morning, it looked like such a beautiful day I couldn't wait to go sailing.

But then I noticed that there weren't many boats out, and most of those that were out were heading back to port.

And when I stepped out on to the balcony I understood why. It felt like 38 degrees, and was too hot to sail or even go to the beach.

And then I saw this and I practically passed out

For how on earth did that happen? How could the Cons have closed the gap with the Liberals so quickly, and are now leading the pack. 

Are they really the Canadian Taliban?

Then my mobile started to hum like it was alive, with one text after the other from my Liberal supporter friends. And I hadn't even had breakfast !!#@!!

So I was forced to tell them, what I'm going to tell you:


It's only the first week of the election campaign. 

The Cons came out of the starting gate quicker than the others, and riding on the back of our porky media.

So they got an early advantage, that will almost certainly not last long.

For even our corrupt media won't be able to convince people that this is a Prime Minister...

Some say that Canadians want to punish Trudeau for calling a summer/pandemic election 

But I don't believe that either. 

For apart from the annoying ads on TV, who can even tell that we have an election?

However, some things do concern me.

One, O'Toole's foreign advisers are very good at deep data diving, and once they've found a magic word they like to repeat it over and over again.

In case you hadn't noticed. 

And sadly, many Canadians are stupid enough to be hypnotized.

And two, and more seriously, I think the main reason the Liberals aren't doing as well as I had hoped, is that their campaign lacks a compelling focus.

For while you might think that Canadians would be grateful for the magnificent way Justin Trudeau led this country through the darkest days of the pandemic.

Judging from what I see, many people are just anxious to put the pandemic behind them.

So hopefully that will encourage Justin Trudeau to switch gears, and focus on what I always thought would be the best reason for a summer election.

The climate emergency that cannot be ignored.

Trudeau doesn't have a perfect record on that issue, but he does have the best plan. 

And if he kicks it up a notch, and comes up with a radical blueprint for dismantling the petro state I am pretty sure the move would payoff, and inject some excitement into what has so far been a rather dull campaign.

He doesn't have to worry about losing any votes n Alberta or Saskatchewan. And I can't think of a better time to go big or go home.

And then there's that other bit of good news. 

Now that the gap between the Liberals and the Cons has narrowed, I'm sure a lot of NDP and Green supporters will abandon their parties to keep the Harper Party out of power.

Which should leave the ghastly Jagmeet Singh and his NDP out in the cold where they belong.

Which after the way they have behaved should be quite amusing.

So it's too soon to panic, too soon to give up.

Let's attack the Cons, and their stooge media, harder than ever before.

And on the Day of Decision I'm still confident that decency will prevail,

And victory will be ours...


Anonymous said...

Nope, he’s in trouble. Called an election at wrong time over the wrong issue.

I knocked on doors today for my Liberal MP, sure there are always strong Liberals and we will win this riding, but people are very very upset.

Calling it like it is is what the party needs to hear.

The Disaffected Lib said...

"a radical plan for dismantling the petro-state" is what we most need, Simon. That begins with eliminating subsidies that even the IMF estimates at close to $50 billion annually. The harder part, as enunciated by Hans Joachim Schellnhuber at the 2015 Paris climate summit can only be achieved by the "induced implosion" of the fossil energy economy.

You know we need to do this to avert the worst iteration of the climate catastrophe so what is your bottom line?

ottlib said...

If we are to believe the pollsters the Liberals' dream of a majority is in danger and there is even a chance the Liberals could lose. So with this new reality staring him in the face what did Justin Trudeau do today?

He took the day off from campaigning? His itinerary said "Private" which means he spent quiet time with his family. And what is his itinerary tomorrow? Go to the Maritimes for three small events.

Incidentally, this was by design. The first 7 to 10 days of any campaign are scripted and unless something really drastic happens within a campaign they do not stray from that script. So it would appear that the Liberal campaign saw no need to change their script, despite the contributions of Bruce Anderson, Frank Graves, Nic Nanos, Angus Reid, Quinto Maggie and Darryl Bricker to the campaign so far. Could it be that the Liberals own data analysis, which is much more thorough and designed to inform campaign decisions, is saying something very different from the public polls? (Yes)

Meanwhile, the other party leaders campaigned as usual and I believe they have not planned any days off this weekend. They know the hill they must climb leaves very little room for resting.

It was always inevitable that the double digit leads the Liberals enjoyed in the public polls would be reduced. The pollsters and the media need a horse race to drive clicks and interest. We have seen this happen in every election since 2004. As you say otherwise no one would be paying attention to this election during the dog days of summer. Although I think only those of us who follow politics are actually following it at this point anyway.

Following the polls is "fun". It makes people believe that they are in the know and that they can predict the future. However, they are looking at the trees and not the forest. Taking a broader perspective what the Conservatives have to do is convince Canadians to change their government and that is nearly impossible to do. Between 1984 and today Canadians have gone through 11 federal elections and only changed governments four times. Yup, we have only changed government 4 times in almost 40 years. In all four of those elections the governing party had been in power for more than eight years. In none of those cases was it necessary to convince Canadians to change the government. Canadians had already decided to do that before the elections started and were just looking at what change was being offered by the other parties. In short, incumbents generally win elections unless they have been in power for a long time. That does not apply in this situation.

This election could buck the trend but it is highly unlikely that it will and the Liberal majority is in play. As I state on my own blog, before the election started the Liberals would have done extensive data analysis on how an early election call would have impacted their prospects of winning a majority and if they would have seen any issues they would not have called the election. That data analysis will continue throughout the election and judging by the seeming lack of urgency in the Liberal campaign I would say their data analysis is still saying they are on track for a majority.

Starting next week sometime, when the first few scripted days are behind us I suspect that the Liberals will hone and focus their message and they will ramp up their effort and urgency.

BTW Simon I know what you mean about the heat causing a change in plans. I was going to do some gliding this weekend but I think I will pass.

Jackie Blue said...

Today is my birthday and I am going to make a wish on the candles that Justin wins. I agree though, that they might have jumped the gun and not expected the DipperCons to put their manifestos out so early. Trudeau should have been more aggressive on the writ day, talking about the toxic parliament as a need for a secure mandate. He really is too nice a lot of the time and it bites him in the ass. Go in for the kill rather than a bear hug.

But I hope that what some pundits are saying, that there are still many people who will not pay a whole lot of attention until September, means that once they get their platform out soon the focus will change, and their numbers will go back up.

I was lurking on a Reddit thread and some people were saying EKOS has really wild swings and so does Nanos. Usually I like Frank but he has not always been the most reliable in his polls. I read this from one of the (former) Lean Tossup analysts if it's helpful. They had the most accurate seat projection in 2019, more so than 338 or CBC.

Mainstreet's tracker is not showing these bad numbers, at least from what I see on Reddit. Hopefully the Liberals can at least hold at minority levels and keep O'Toole away from the PMO. At least whatever Trudeau decides to do after that point would be his choice.

Otherwise I'm going to be sick.

Cathie from Canada said...

Simon, I am terrified that we will lose daycare AGAIN because the Liberals will lose the election.
But I refuse to panic just yet.......

rumleyfips said...

Thanks Jackie: I couldn't remember the name Lean tossup when I went looking for it.

So far the story is "events, dear boy, events " which no amount of planning or timing can control. The events which looked so dire to our right wing pundits just a few days ago are changing. Flights are getting into and out of Kandahar ( have you seen how small that facility is ) and vaccinations are moderating the ' fourth wave '.

When an O'Toole cries wolf , there is an opportunity to show his irrelavence.

Anonymous said...

What toxic parliament? The Libs are having little trouble passing legislation. Despite Con hysterics the conversion therapy ban sailed through the Commons, as did the rest of Trudeau's agenda. The only cockup was that We charity program.

No, the public percieves this election to be about avoiding accountability, because that's what a majority government entails. So the last thing the Libs need right now is veteran Toronto candidate Judy Sgro acting like an amateur when asked who paid for a boondoggle she took in Italy in 2017. Telling the media that I'm in the middle of a campaign and I'll deal with this later is like pouring lighter fluid on a BBQ. She's going to get roasted and the Libs can't afford to give up seats in TO. Somebody at campaign HQ better get over to Judy's riding with a fire extinguisher, pronto.

martin said...

Hi Simon,

I feel a definite sense of disappointment at the poor start to the Liberal campaign. Dale Smith captures it well in describing Trudeau's "campaign persona and style – upbeat, upbeat, upbeat. Happy-clappy at all times". For once I want JT to be positive in promoting his policies and in denouncing the CPC. I think that JT should remind everyone of the toxic obstructionism that was the hallmark of the last Parliament.

I have been binge-watching "Call the Midwife" on GEM and Haven't been able to avoid the Liberal Party ads and that awful awful attempt at a catchword: "relentless". Someone, somewhere (I forget where) pointed out the "relentless" use of the word "secure" by the CPC. That's a much more relatable catchword, unfortunately.

Anonymous said...

I'm not surprised by these early polling numbers as even before the election was called, the MSM were squarely behind the home team. It's thoroughly sickening how they keep fluffing the tool while pumping out the anti JT bullshit. They are a shameful disgrace for tipping the election in the tool's favor instead of providing a balanced look at what got us here. If I didn't know just how bad the Cons have been the last 2 years I'd think "hey this Erin guy's not so bad". However, it couldn't be further from the truth.
I said it before and will say it again, JT should have let the government fall on a non-confidence vote. Who knows when that could have happened but at least they'd still hold power until the opposition had the guts to force an election. I understand why he's doing it now but will most Canadians? That is the question. This scenario playing out now is just too convenient for the Cons and their MSM to go on their offensive offensive.
The Libs need to start fighting fire with fire because lord knows they've got the ammunition. Failure to launch is not an option and besides, if I see one more fluff job article or ad for the tool I may very well puke.

Jackie Blue said...

1) all you trolls can go and fuck off with your nasty attacks and conspiracy theories. Parl 43 was absolutely toxic. And Stephenson aka Pentagon Barbie absolutely needs to be up front with viewers instead of hiding behind her Twitter block wall like Michelle Rempelthinskin.

2) I agree Martin and JD, that's why I said Trudeau's Achilles heel is being too nice. I remember an interview with Sophie from way back. Whoever the interviewer was, they went on the attack asking Sophie if her husband had ever been unfaithful. She slammed the fork down and snapped back at the person. At the end she says she worries about Justin because he's very sensitive. If this campaign goes sideways it will be because he yet again tried to fight under Queensberry rules while the opposition brought a nuclear weapon to a street fight.

3) He needs a platform soon. I know in usual campaigns the platforms don't come out until later but this one is different. I'm sure he's waiting to have it costed but the other two rushed theirs out the door and the media ate it up. Singh's is literally a copy of 2019's, that's how he managed to get it in even before day 1. Lazy but effective to the low-info MSM. But it is what it is so come on JT, "give the people what they want" because you can't afford another week like this one.

4) Quito Maggi of Mainstreet indicated that Canadians may still be enjoying the end of the summer and the real campaign will kick off in September. I sure hope that's the case and that Trudeau can make a 180-degree turnaround. He needs it badly and very, very soon.

martin said...

Oh man, how embarrassing...

It was right there in your post, Simon, where you mentioned "magic" words. I do apologise. I need to not comment while I am still half asleep.

Jackie Blue said...

Simon the NDP are absolutely coordinating with the Cons. Singh/NDP running interference for O'toole on Chrystia Freeland's warning about privatizing healthcare

and Peter Julian out at his event in BC where he pretends to be a "compassionate conservative".

A key omen was Singh's cultish stunt calling for a riding to be named for Layton.

They're doing it again, goddamnit. They're doing pincer warfare.

Anonymous said...

The general public seems to believe that the minority government was working and are suspicious that Trudeau has a hidden agenda. In a way they are right, the Liberals were caught between a rock and a hard place with the never ending corruption inquiry dog and pony shows and the not too distant no win showdown with Quebec on minority rights issues. The preferred route would have been a no confidence vote but difficult to engineer with the opposition playing tag so they can choose the time and issue to their advantage.
Unless Con take over panic sets in the likely outcome is another Liberal minority. Hopefully there will be enough disruption to throw the tag team off balance and pave the way for a Liberal majority in a years time. A repeat of the 2008 Harper gambit with a better outcome. All the Liberals have to do is make sure they remain issue focused and do not succumb to the self interest fluff floating around.


Jackie Blue said...

So Trudeau is in Miramichi and just said at a presser the LPC platform is being *fully costed* and will be out soon. That's why the delay. I knew it, I knew he was having it costed. CPC and NDP just did a rush job to grab headlines while Trudeau wanted to get it right.

Hopefully it's not too late and the platform release can turn things around. Hurry up JT πŸ™

Anonymous said...

Happy Birthday Jackie!!
Don't despair. The truth is out there and will slowly seep out from the journalists whose modus operandi's are all about integrity and reporting the truth. The rest are mere fluffers for their employers and the Cons and in actuality are not journalists, they're propagandists.

Visitor - Pierre D. said...

The Conservatives could win...a minority.
They will not win a majority, especially with the Nova Scotia Premier basically eliminating all rent control so he can get more health care money. People will remember this and punish the CPC Sept. 20.

I agree with ottlib (a refreshing add to this comment section) that the LPC likely have advanced internals that give them a good idea where they really stand. If they feel the campaign is out of reach, it's going to "micro-target" ridings with funding announcements. The Prime Minister himself might well show up to shore up votes.

Dippers are losing their minds; I have some on mutual follow on Twitter and they are going on and on about electoral reform, scandals, etc. They may as well be CPC adjuncts at this point, which brings me to my final point. It is critical to keep NDP under 30 seats. Ideally NDP at 15-20 seats would be fantastic, but there are some ridings that are just deep orange.

As time passes, I am more confident in a Liberal minority. Maybe 160-163 seats. Justin will just have to navigate "RESIGN! RESIGN!" for 12 months if he does not get his majority.

And yeah, the heat... it feels like I'm in an oven in Hull, QC.

(P.S. Y-F Blanchet turned over a toy with a Canadian flag at a yard sale, why isn't LPC using this non-stop?)

Jackie Blue said...

Thank you JD. I'm in the hurricane zone and might end up having to light more birthday candles just to keep the lights on at home 😏

Pierre, I sure hope you're right (and so is the Lean Tossup guy) about an LPC minority rather than CPC. I have zero faith whatsoever that the NDP wouldn't betray their "promise" of not propping them up, out of mutual hatred for LPC. They only have 99 legitimate candidates, according to a former CPC EDA volunteer who quit the party in disgust. The rest on their website are paper-candidate nobodies parachuted in just to split the vote.

Additionally: look at what Don Davies is up to. What a disgusting, racist, exploitative, hypocritical POS. I hope he loses his seat.

And he's a union goon and a NIMBY who's on the side of police unions. I come from a LEO family and let me tell you cop unions are not real labour activists, they're thugs. This is the same party courting the "Defund the Police" movement, the same party that had Singh claiming Trump did a better job addressing racism than Trudeau, the same party that claimed he's a fake feminist just to stan for JWR. No wonder Davies was on the attack against Minister of Vaccines Anita Anand, if this is how he treats women of colour. They are all brocialist swine.

Simon said...

Hi Jackie….Happy Birthday to a great woman and a great progressive!!!! How lucky we are to have you on our side and contributing to this blog. You drive the Con and NDP trolls crazy much more than I ever could. I had to delete a couple of those trolls today after I came back from a short cruise, after I saw that Callum had let a couple through. Sorry about that, but you should be proud of what you are doing to them.
As for the election please don’t be depressed, the universe is still unfolding just as we hoped it would. Erin O’Toole and his filthy Cons will not win the election, and his ghastly stooge Singh will be revealed as the sneaky unprincipled poseur he really is. So please save some candles for the big party in September…πŸŽ‰πŸ₯³πŸŽˆ

Anonymous said...

Jackie, when you have full control of the campaign start date there's no excuse for the platform delay. In this election when many people will be voting early, getting information to them early is vital. Nobody cares if the platform is fully costed at this point, just get it out the friggin' door. Being behind the other parties shows an embarrassing lack of preparedness.

Simon said...

Hi Mound…I agree with everything you say, and I’m sure that like me you are disappointed at the way the issue of climate is being downplayed so far. The other day Trudeau was in Vancouver to talk about climate change and forest fires. You could see the smoky haze in the background, but the media couldn’t care less. They just wanted to talk about Afghanistan and the sexual assault charge levelled at Danny Fortin. I had hoped that a very hot summer would allow politicians, especially Trudeau, to take the fight against climate change to where it had never gone before. I understand that the Liberals are promising to eliminate subsidies to the oil industry by 2023. But that should have been done years ago, and the fact that they exist is absolute insanity, now more than ever. We have to get rid of them we have to close down the tar sands, and we have to end our love affair with the car. But when I wonder how to do that I admit I don’t know where to begin. But if you can come up with a plan, and I think it can fly scientifically and politically, I will do everything I can to support it….

Jackie Blue said...

So, the new EKOS (take with salt) has a statistical tie for the two main parties being bumped by a small CPC lead in Ontario. That might not be the most concerning part however (NB: as of right now they are the only pollster showing any CPC lead in Ontario). The most concerning part is that the CPC vote is being driven almost entirely by poor and/or working-class young men. In other words Vanilla ISIS.

If Trudeau somehow manages to pull off an underdog victory, I wouldn't put it past these macho tools to do a January 6 on September 20. Yikes.

Simon said...

Hi Ottlib….Another excellent comment, but Incan’t shake the feeling that the Liberals were not as prepared as they should have been. I thought the Cons and the NDP came out of the gate more prepared or a least more aggressive. This may not matter and could even backfire, but I was glad to see Trudeau attack O’Toole on the privatizing of medicare services. Frank Graves said preliminary data suggested that young males were mainly responsible for the narrowing of the race, and that bothers me because Trudeau has been directing much of his ads to women, while O’Toole has been clearly aiming his at males. And that may be having an effect. At any rate the Liberals still have plenty of time to readjust things, and I still believe they will win the election. But they need to make a strong case for why they need a majority or they won’t get one….

P.S. Could you give us the directions to your blog. I’m sure I’m not the only one who would like to read it….

Simon said...

Hi Cathie….I feel the same way. The idea that the Cons could kill another national child care program, and in the same way Harper did, infuriates me, as does the indifference of our Con media. To me climate change and child care are the two top issues of this campaign, and we all need to put pressure on all the misogynists out there to make them pay attention….

ottlib said...

Pierre D...Thanks for the compliment. One thing about election campaigns is the stuff you see on TV, in newspapers and online is the tip of a very large iceberg. The stuff going on behind the scenes would floor most people. With the advent of computers and the internet a political party cannot survive without a well funded, professional data analysis team. I would imagine that the Liberals' team is working very hard to provide Justin Trudeau and his team with reliable daily snapshots of where they stand and advice on how to achieve their objectives.

Happy Birthday Jackie. I visited the same Reddit poll thread and laughed my ass off. You have heard of people missing the forest for the trees. These people are missing the tree for the leaves. There was one comment about the significance of a 0.5% change in a number on a Mainstreet poll so I started counting the number of comments afterward and stopped a 25, although there were many more. As someone who spent almost 20 years in the survey business I can say that that kind of change on poll with a 3% margin of error is not significant so spending all of that time and effort trying to figure out what it means is a complete waste of time. I can safely say that if I do not go back to that site ever again I will not miss anything important

One thing about being able to call an election yourself is you can take all of the time you want to get your ducks in a row before the election call. Letting the Opposition do it for you puts you at a disadvantage. Sure you leave yourself open questions of why an election is necessary but you can live with that if you can dictate when to go.

Simon said...

Hi Rumleyfips….The Cons and the Con media are definitely trying to clutter up the campaign to try to distract from O.’Toole’s many weaknesses. But as you point out Afghanistan will not be a gift that keeps on giving. And when the Liberals focus on the issues that really count, the hot air will start to leak out of Captain Outhouse, and this first week will soon be forgotten..l

ottlib said...

Simon said...

Hi Martin…I share your disappointment at the slow start of the Liberal campaign. And Happy Clappy is a great way to describe it. But I’m glad to report that Justin Trudeau seems to have learned his lesson, and is going after both the Cons and the NDP in a far more energetic manner. He is a great campaigner, and by the time the debates arrive he should be in fighting shape. For as you say, we need to remind people of the horror of the Harper years….

Anonymous said...

MS, I have been reading "Ottlib's" blog after reading his excellent comments on here. I just hit the profile and it can direct you to his blog. I've been getting panicky and Ottlib puts the polls in perspective.

Jackie Blue said...

Goddamn. If only Nate Erskine Smith had written the day 1 explainer for Trudeau, we wouldn't be in this mess. Why didn't he stick to the "obstruction in Parliament" tack he had in the summer?

Anonymous said...

ottlib, Really enjoyed your "Week one complete" Thanks for the great insight.

Simon said...

Hi JD….I agree with you, it probably would have been better if Trudeau had let the opposition bring the government down. But O’Toole and Singh had made governing almost impossible, so he really had no choice. What he does need to do now is go after the O’Toole Singh coalition and their media fluffers as aggressively as possible. For although it’s hard to draw any conclusions after only one week, I fear that those scummy ConDippers are trying to steal the election. I had hoped to cruise through this election, confident that Canadians would realize the only Trudeau is capable of steering this country through these difficult times. But now I realize that it will be harder than I thought it would be, the Cons have infected this country like syphilis, and we will have to fight harder than we ever have before. But have no doubt we will win…

Jackie Blue said...

Twitter is trying to steal the election too. That's not a conspiracy theory either. What happened is their algorithm picked up Chrystia's video about O'Toole wanting to privatize healthcare as "manipulated media" so now all the usual suspects are saying she was pushing fake news.

What actually happened was that she (or someone on the team) added French subtitles, which Twitter automatically flags. It wasn't that the clip was surreptitiously doctored. It just had captions. That's why the English video wasn't flagged. But no one in the media is questioning that. They're just running with "manipulated media" and accusing the Liberals of disinformation tactics. The absolute gall of them doing that when they're the most manipulative media themselves!

ottlib said...

I understand the frustration with the Liberals' "slow" start, especially when it is compared to the Oppositions' "fast" start. I share it somewhat.

However, give the Liberal brain trust its due. While I have been observing politics for almost 40 years and I have picked up some of the strategy political operatives use the ones running the Liberal campaign are pros who make a living doing it.

One thing I have learned is election campaigns are marathons, not sprints. To win elections you must slowly but steadily build momentum during the campaign until to end with a bit of a bang.

If we are to believe the media and the polls (I don't) the Conservatives have started out strong and have the early momentum. That probably is not really true except in the fevered dreams of these very same people. But for the sake of argument let's say they have. How do they maintain it for the next 5 weeks?

You see the Conservatives and the NDP have released their entire platforms in the first week. What are they going to talk about for the next five weeks? Just repeat the same things over and over again, ad nauseum? No, what they will probably do is what they have been doing for years. Spend the next 5 weeks attacking Justin Trudeau. That is the strategy they tried in 2015 and 2019 and we all know how those campaigns turned out.

The Liberals on the other hand are taking a more conventional approach. Release parts of your platform over time to build momentum and to vary your daily message until you release the full costed platform just before the debates. (Which, incidentally will put us after Labour Day when more Canadians will probably be paying attention.) You then spend the last few days hammering your message home.

It is a tried a true way of winning elections and the only reason why the Conservatives and the NDP did not follow it is because they needed this "fast" start to appear competitive and relevant early in the campaign.

I have stated before that the Liberals know where they stand because their data analysis teams have been giving them daily snap shots. The fact that they have not changed their approach tells me the public polls are not giving us the true picture (Well isn't that a surprise). The Conservatives and NDP have used up all of their best ammo in the first week and now they must watch as the Liberal fire broadside after broadside for the next two weeks without the ability to effectively fire back.

And considering some of the policy proposals that the Liberals have released during the first week I am curious as to what they will release in the second and third because they have not yet released their signature policies for this election.

To paraphrase Carey Price, the goaltender on my favourite hockey team, we all just need to chill.

Jackie Blue said...

I'm sorry Simon and Ottlib, but I feel despondent. The damn con media is really hyping Freeland's video, even though it was edited for 1) brevity and 2) subtitles. Not untruth. The woman who the tool was talking to is a Con strategist who chairs Abacus Data (another reason I don't trust pollsters not to cook the books). He said "yes" he wanted for-profit healthcare, why is that a lie?

Those same polls now show the Cons leading in BC and climbing in Ontario. All what saves the Grits now is the Atlantic (which is also competitive) and QC, where Blanchet has been generally making an ass of himself. The rest is a dog's breakfast and I don't like it.

There is a Con donor on the board of Twitter. We know what they did to get Trump elected with help of the MSM, and they're looking to do the same with the tool. Trudeau is going to go into the debates with major headwinds and manufactured distrust clouding him, and a media that is in the tank for the tool.

This election is probably going to have abysmal turnout and that's how Houston won in NS. Trudeau's best hope at this point seems to be squeaking out a razor-thin minority. CBC still has an 88% chance of the Liberals winning the most seats, but that's with four weeks to go and momentum still on the downward.

I don't like this, it's ugly. Good luck Canada. You'll need a miracle now.

ottlib said...

To answer your question it is a possibility because every election is a crap shoot.

However, is it probable that they will win? No, for all of the reasons I have stated on your blog, Simon and on my own blog.

Look past the polls, what passes for journalism in this country and all of the other minutiae that we are bombarded with on a daily basis during an election and you will see that the conditions for a Conservative victory are just not there.

It is possible that they develop during the campaign but it is not probable.

I fully expect the outcome of this election to be a Liberal victory, with a high possibility of being a majority victory.

ottlib said...

Hey Jackie Blue I am sorry for your despondency but I believe it may be premature.

That twitter video is a two edged sword. Yes, Twitter has flagged it but the video also has Erin O'Toole saying yes to more privatization of Canada's healthcare system. It was a straight question for which he answered a straight yes. He then did qualify the yes but it was still a yes. That is the proverbial third rail in Canadian politics, many swing voters are already suspicious of the Conservatives' intent for our health care system and that video could convince a fair number of them that he cannot be trusted with it. That video would have been just one more bit of flotsam that floats around election campaigns and it would have had little impact if the media and the Conservatives had not brought people's attention to it. They have and that attention is going to cause alot more people to view that video than otherwise would have. Some will be upset by the Twitter flag. Others will be upset by Mr. O'Toole's response. Again, a two edged sword.

I did something today I hate doing. I actually took a close look at polls. I will probably write about it on my own blog but I will highlight the commentary of Quito Maggi in iPolitics in this comment.

He stated that the Conservatives would lose about a dozen seats in the West if the election were held today, with half of them going to the Liberals. I said, wow, the Conservatives are screwed then. He then went on to say the Conservatives COULD pick up seats in the East. I would emphasize the word "could" was used alot to describe possible pickups east of the Ontario/Manitoba border. He was spinning the meaning of his estimates for Eastern Canada pretty hard in that article.

Let's do the math:

Conservatives have 121 seats minus the 12 in the west which would put them at 109.

Liberals have 155 seats plus the 6 in the west would put them at 161.

In order for them to just catch the Liberals they would need to take 26 seats from them in Eastern Canada. Or they would need to pick up over 52 seats from the Bloc and NDP in Eastern Canada. That would be quite the shift and although it is possible it certainly in not probable.

Again doing the math the Liberals would need to pick up 10 seats for their majority, and they can pick them up from any party not just the Conservatives. If the Bloc fades like they appear to be doing the Liberals would pick up the 10 seats right there and possibly more besides. If all of the "coulds" mentioned by Mr. Maggi do not come to pass then the Liberal seat count goes up that much more.

In short, the Conservatives have always had a very steep hill to climb and the prospect of them losing seats in the west just increases that steepness. Or to put it another way, the Liberals have alot less work to do in order to achieve their majority than the Conservatives have to do just to win the slimmest of minority governments. Betting on the underdog can sometimes pay out really well but most of the time you just lose the bet.

For the Conservatives to have any hope their foundation in the West needs to remain intact and they have to find some way to substantially add to it in the East. If they fail at either of those tasks they lose.

Simon said...

Hi Jackie...I understand why you are despondent. It's a perfectly natural reaction to what's been happening. But trust me, things will improve and this Con surge will deflate like a piΓ±ata, and will turn out to be nothing more than smoke and mirrors. I'm a bit despondent myself because it once again too hot to go sailing. But I am completely confident that the Liberals are going to win the election. And there is a lot to be said for seeing the Con hopes rising only to see those hopes smashed. Ottlib has sent you an excellent comment explaining what's almost certainly going to happen. So cheer up birthday girl !!!

Visitor - Pierre D. said...

Here is some good reading for y'all getting angsty:

TLDR: STeal seats from BQ, GTA Red Wave, pick up seats all over = majority?

ottlib said...

Simple question: There is a video circulating where Erin O'Toole responds in the affirmative to a question about whether he agrees with more privatization of Canada's health care system. (I am paraphrasing and I know he qualified the yes but he still said yes)

Where is Mr. Singh? Is it not NDP policy to defend our socialized health care system? Should he not speak out against any suggestion to privatize it?

Why is he silent?

Anonymous said...

The liberals are bab enough. But the conservatives lead the charge for the privatization of healthcare. Mike Harris and Terry Lake (once BC's "liberal health minister" both work heading up the private seniors home industry. Their whole speil is labour brokers and TFW. Both parties should be taken to task for the whole fiasco. Especially the Conservatives. Instead the NDP prefers to run interference for the privateer con men.

Jackie Blue said...

I know y'all want to discourage despondency, but I just can't look anymore. Fungus Reid just dropped (and, weirdly, has better numbers than Mainstreet, but a trend is a trend, and it doesn't look good).

Five more polls are expected today alone, and I doubt they'll look much different. Polls over the next four weeks are going to be like bombs dropped in the Blitz. The smug lying fucker looks like he's going to win. 2006 here we come.

Goddamnit. My heart is shattered. πŸ’”

Bye guys, I love you. Good luck Canada, you're gonna need it. If any of you see Justin in passing, tell him he's more than welcome to hide out here in the States. And that I love him more than life itself. 😒

Anonymous said...

Funny thing how Twitter flagged the Liberal video of O'Toole saying yes to privatising health care but didn't flag the Cons' Willy Wonka video of Trudeau - which was totally manipulated. I guess it helps when a senior executive at Twitter Canada is a Con insider.


Visitor - Pierre D. said...

@Jackie Blue,
Remember when Johnny Carson put a turban on and opened an envelope?
Mine says: "Coalition Government...Coalition Government."

Question is: "What did Justin Trudeau and Jagmeet Singh propose to Governor General Mary Simon after the Liberals won 150 seats (+/- 10) and the NDP 40?"


Jackie Blue said...

Hi Pierre. Yes, I remember Johnny. I'm just not confident that prediction will work out this time. Not with the media so in the bag for bald Trump. This whole blitz actually feels like a character assassination campaign. It's Hillary 2016 all over again.

Evan Scrimshaw still seems to think Trudeau can pull it off by the skin of his teeth. He's not with Lean Tossup anymore though. And he's among a dwindling minority who remain bullish on the Liberals' chances.

Me, I'm worried I won't be the only one to end up in a psych hospital when all this is over and done with. I'm actually very concerned about Trudeau. And I'm not saying that in demeaning terms, like how MAGA hatters accuse Biden of having dementia. I think the pandemic has taken a lot out of him, and to be publicly humiliated in front of 38 million people and the whole world would cause him to break. He is much more Margaret than he is Pierre. Public life ruined her and it took a long time to bounce back. The way it's looking right now I'll have a famous pen pal from The Allan when I end up at McLean.

I just want him to pull off a miracle and then decide on his own terms what he wants to do. I'm skeptical he can, because the machine is rigged against him. But it would be nice.

Visitor - Pierre D. said...

The Prime Minister will not break. His wife suffers from mental illness and they both have access to excellent health professionals. They both have a yoga regimen to center themselves.

Also, CPC have attacked him relentlessly (and his wife...) for 6 years now. PMJT takes a ton of personal days where he rests, centers himself around his family as well.

Polling overnight shows:
LPC 36 (+3) CPC 33 (-1) NDP 17 (+1) GPC 5 (-2) BQ 6 (-2) PPC 4 (+2)
Nanos Polling
LPC 33 (-) CPC 29 (-5) NDP 23 (+7) GPC 3 (-4) BQ 6 (-2) PPC 4 (+2)
Abacus Data

It's starting to happen, the Dippers are seeing private health care looming and LGTBTQ rights and reproduction rights threatened and are shifting red.

ALso, don't underestimate photo ops. PMJT was aroumd some youths the other day biking and that will swing a few hundred/thousands of votes.

ottlib said...

With Mr. O'Toole's statements on allowing more private choices for health care he has introduced THE wedge issue into the campaign. There is very little more precious to Canadians than our health care system and their desire to protect it. Let's remember how health care was the issue that turned the Nova Scotia election.

Mr. O'Toole has had to talk about it for three straight days and he will be talking about it some more in September when the Liberals will start an ad campaign with Mr. O'Toole's statements juxtaposed next to the Liberals plan to hire more health care workers and reduce wait times. They will target the 50+ crowd with that advertizing because they would be the most impacted by health care privatization. That with the announcement to work with the provinces on Long Term Care for seniors could go a long way towards locking up the two voting blocks that still consistently vote.

The Housing announcement was directed straight at young Canadians and $10 child care was directed at young parents in general but young women in particular.

The announcement of new taxes on the Banks was directed as soft Dippers, those who like the NDP but realize they will never form government so if they want to see the Banks taxed they better vote Liberal.

Oh, let's not forget the announced Federal vaccine mandate. Cases are rising again and that mandate can be sold as an important way to slow the rise, something that most Canadians desperately want to happen before they get so out of hand we have to more lockdowns.

The Prime Minister is not announcing these measures with the idea of announcing and forgetting about them, or hoping that the media will wax poetically about them. He is announcing them to set up the second-part of the election when the Liberals begin to contrast their platform with the Conservatives. They believe once Canadians see the choices they will choose the Liberal option.

If this is not a change election, and I do not believe it is, the Liberal strategy will likely result in a majority government for them.

Pierre...That Nanos polls is interesting. The Liberals at 36% is solid minority, possible majority territory if it were the actual result. But there is still a long way to go and polls are not predictive so I would not become too excited for upset by any poll right now.

Also remember that for none of the published polls are we seeing the undecideds. I would bet a large chunk of money that the estimates for them is well into the double digits. As long as they are there none of these polls are worth very much in showing us the true reality of this election.

Anonymous said...

Oh let’s see Justin explain how the Taliban are now ‘brothers’. ��

Jackie Blue said...

I'm glad to hear they take care of themselves. They seem like such nice people and there are so many who want to hurt them. A fine upstanding member of the friendly sausage maker brigade went to B.C. and was recorded on video calling JT a dirty Jew as he made his way through Surrey. He cried out "we will end you" and there's been swastikas drawn all over his posters and those from other Liberal candidates everywhere in the country. What's even more bizarre is that they drew a swastika on his forehead and then a Hitler mustache on his face. So they're Nazis, insulting JT by calling him a Nazi. As they support Sgt. Schultz and the party that wants to secure the future for the great White north's children. I've heard Toole's French is passable but how's his German?

I remember JT had to wear a bulletproof vest last campaign because someone with a gun was roaming around the event, and the same types called it a sympathy stunt to get him a boost in the polls. Michael Wernick was trying to sound the alarm about all the hate that cons were ginning up, and the media accused him of running partisan interference with a pointless distraction. Then another sausage maker attempts to go full Oswald on the prime minister and they're all eerily quiet. Preferring to cover another fake scandal instead.

I don't understand this obsession that Cons and a handful of hardcore Dippers have with sullying the Trudeaus' reputations with sexual conspiracy theories the way they do. Dean Blondell and Bob Fife in particular. The hell was he doing reposting a tweet from a Rupert Murdoch rag anyway? Are they mad that Sophie and/or JT won't sleep with them or something? I read last night what Colby Cosh was saying about "Toolemania", that a revenge of the mediocre stumpy bald white guys is overdue. Explains a lot, and I do mean a lot. Ivana might want to check Brian's computer for more "shirtless on the beaches of Costa Rica" fanfic her boyfriend may be writing about the PM.

I didn't know the polls went up, as I hadn't checked in a few days and they were abysmal. I hope this hateful smear toward Monsef doesn't threaten that. I didn't know he went bicycling with young people either. A progressive liberal politician bicycling with youth, sounds like someone else except this one actually has a concrete plan instead of just pretty words. Jagmeet was in Papineau the other day being a troll in a province where he has no chance. But I guess Justin knows a better way to score on someone else's turf.

Anonymous said...

It's all very nice that the Libs have got the voters divided into nice categories and have a chicken for every pot. But what if I don't like chicken?

Take those affordable housing announcements aimed at young voters. If I'm already a homeowner, I don't want housing prices going down, I don't want my mortgage under water or my retirement savings going up in smoke. I will be very motivated to vote against the party proposing those measures. And if I'm a Liberal donor, I'll be making damn sure that the party "forgets" that promise or blames the failure to implement it on the opposition. Make no mistake, the affordable housing promises are vaporware.