For most of his political career Justin Trudeau's strongest supporters were young Canadians.
While most older Canadians voted for the Cons.
But not any longer.
Now most seniors are preparing to support Trudeau.
And if these two polls are correct those seniors could help blow the Cons out of the water.
For as the pollster Philippe J. Fournier explains, the support of older Canadians tends to count more than others.
In the 2019 federal general election, 67 per cent of eligible voters cast their ballot in Canada. Breaking the election turnout by age group, we notice that, once again, older voters came out in much larger numbers than younger voters. For instance: 73 per cent of voters aged 55 to 64 years old and 79 per cent of voters aged 65 to 74 years old cast a ballot in that election, compared to only 57 per cent of voters aged 18 to 34 according to Elections Canada‘s data.
And that can make a big big difference.
Had these younger voters cast ballots in similar proportions to their elders in 2019, a little over 400,000 additional ballots would have been cast from coast to coast—roughly as many ballots cast in all of New Brunswick in 2019. Applying the same formula to the 25 to 34 year old demographic, about 900,000 more ballots would have been cast, almost as many as all of Manitoba and Saskatchewan combined, more than enough ballots to swing election one way or another.
So why are so many seniors now preparing to vote for Justin Trudeau's Liberals?
Answer: probably because so many seniors have been vaccinated.
And as even more seniors get vaccinated over the next few months, the polltracker should become even more favourable.
The Liberals are starting to move ahead more definitively in the polls. They now enjoy a national lead of seven points over the Conservatives and are inching more comfortably into majority territory. The Conservatives have been stuck around their floor of 30 per cent for a few months. The New Democrats are running third and would likely win about as many seats as they currently hold if an election were held today, while the Bloc Québécois has taken a step backwards in support.Which should make the ugly Cons even more desperate than they are now.
The dirty dirties, Canada's Republicans, who can't stop trying to smear decent people, or trying to turn something beautiful into something dirty.
"Prime Minister Justin Trudeau offers to hold his wife Sophie’s hand while she gets the AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine. Sophie waves him off and Prime Minister sighs." - CP24, April 23, 2021 😬😬😬 pic.twitter.com/uMDLEcRauO— Canada Proud (@WeAreCanProud) April 23, 2021