Thursday, April 22, 2021

Justin Trudeau's Road To A Super Majority

A few days ago I predicted that Justin Trudeau's Liberals could be heading for a massive majority.

Although my prediction was based on a number of sources, many of those I know didn't believe it.

Which wasn't surprising, it's not easy to be optimistic in the middle of a pandemic, in a country with so many grumpy Con croakers.

But here is what the road to a super majority looks like...

The Liberals are up sharply, with the same percentage of votes that won them a majority in 2015.

But the difference is that back then the Cons had 32% of the vote and now they have only 28% which suggests a larger majority, especially since the NDP is also in sharp decline and can't split the vote.

The Liberals have healthy leads in BC, Ontario, Quebec and the Atlantic provinces.

And with Doug Ford's sagging support in Canada's largest province...

Liberal numbers could go even higher. If that's possible.

And needless to say I am particularly pleased with these numbers...

Which show Liberal support leading in all age groups, especially the younger ones that will determine the election result.

Of course there are probably still a few months to go before an election is called.

But with Canada's vaccination campaign gathering strength...

And the Bank of Canada predicting a sunny economic outlook.

It looks as if Erin O'Toole is shit out of luck.

And heading for his final humiliation.

While Justin Trudeau is heading for the super majority he so richly deserves.

So get ready to party like it was 2015...


Anonymous said...

Those are very encouraging numbers, Simon. It should only get better as more people get vaccinated and we inch closer to the day we can proclaim a return to normal. Hallelujah!
It's weird but I feel I need to thank all the Cons and their media hacks for their continued spreading of lies and non-stop slagging of JT as I believe it's contributing to the Liberal fortunes. People are finally seeing them for who they are. Petulant, self-serving little gnats that have been a hindrance every step of the way in a battle requiring all hands on deck. Meanwhile, our PM has kept his cool, ignored the noise and kept his focus on what uncle Joe said, working really hard to take care of his country. Imagine where we'd be with the help of competent Con premiers right now? Now there's an oxymoron.
Last but not least, when the Liberals gain that means the Cons are shrinking as your poll graphic of Ape Doug's free-fall from the Empire State Building clearly shows, Simon. That's gotta hurt and would be enough to make any grown man cry.

Jackie Blue said...

1968, 1972, 1974. You think there'll be a 1980, without the Clark interregnum? 'Cause Joe's party is long gone, and I really don't see anyone else waiting in the wings who could muster the confidence of a sparsely-attended Zoom chat, let alone the House of Commons. Especially not after the disastrous Con clown convention pretty much shut the door on Quebec having any input into the leadership. But, one step at a time, of course. Let's get '74 into the books first and see where we go from here.

I think it'd be interesting to see where the Biden/Trudeau partnership leads over the next four or five years. Whether that extends for longer, or if the next iteration is a Harris/Freeland powerhouse, remains to be seen. Either way the GOP and its dumber little brother should be having some major headaches. Nobody should get complacent, of course. But the alternatives have proven themselves unfit to govern and deserve to be rejected once and for all.

I've been keeping a tab of how long it'll take for Trudeau to surpass this or that PM in tenure. He approaches Dief in September. If he can outlast Harper, the Cons will commit organizational hari-kari. He won't tempt fate by trolling them that much (although his Oklahoma retort to the Calgary Cowgirl in yesterday's QP was *chef's kiss*), but it'd be nice if he wins another majority and addresses the Cons by saying --

"The longer I'm prime minister, you won't recognize this country once I'm through with it."

Steve said...

I predict Perire Penis will be the new head dick at the Con Clown casting agency.

sisyphus said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
ottlib said...

As usual I would caution against believing the public polls. However, the body language of Conservative leaders and the way the Conservative Parties are acting in this country, at the moment, is a cause for optimism. None of them look like they are having a good spring.

Contrast that with the Trudeau government. I would defy you to find any evidence that they are feeling uncomfortable politically. They weathered the "vaccine shortage" narrative of the Winter without issues and now seem to have the wind in their sails with vaccines arriving in obscene amounts on a weekly basis. I have seen the math. Canada will have enough vaccines for everybody to be fully vaccinated by September, as the Federal government promised, provided there are no more hiccups in the supply chain. Now if only the Provincial governments can get their acts together and start jabbing people at a rate to meet the September promise.

Of course, since we are talking about politics we cannot take anything for granted. Something could come up to upset the apple cart and we all know that both the Conservatives and the NDP will latch on to anything resembling a scandal and/or attempt to create one where none really exists.