The Birds of Spring and the Deadly Flu Strain

The birds have been flocking back to the island as they do every spring.

Flying in from south of the lake, on their way north.

But this year I'm not as glad to see them, as I usually am.

Because this year they can't help reminding me of what's going on in China. 

The Harper Cons and the Vaccine Nightmare

As I was saying the other day...who needs Halloween when we've got this horror show?

But let's be very very clear who is mostly responsible. It's NOT our public health workers, who are doing a heroic job trying to cope with a wave of panic that is overwhelming our already overworked public health system.

And the provinces shouldn't bear the burden of the blame either. They can only give out as much vaccine as they get from federal authorities. And they don't have enough vaccine because our Con government made an almost unbelievable MISTAKE.

They ordered the vaccine manufacturer to make an enormous order of non-adjuvanted vaccine. But apparently were unaware that because the H1N1 virus grows slowly, a rush order for one type of vaccine would cause a major shortage of the other.

Even though they should have know that the WHO were about to complete a study showing that vaccines with adjuvants were safe enough for EVERYONE.

Now look... there is enough blame out there for just about everybody to get a bit of it. Like the people who are demanding to get vaccinated even though they are not in a high-risk group.

But Stephen's Harper's Cons must take most of the blame. Because the reasons for their incompetence are largely IDEOLOGICAL. They don't believe in a national role for government. They don't believe in strengthening our medicare system. How could they when Harper spent 15 years trying to DESTROY it.

They believe OUR health is a purely provincial matter. But since the HarperCons forgot to tell the Swine Flu bug to respect those provincial borders, now we're in this mess, everybody is panicking or getting angry.

And it all could have been avoided if these Cons had put the safety of Canadians before their hideous alien ideology, taken a leadership role in a NATIONAL emergency, and launched a massive ad campaign to educate the public and prepare them for the second wave of the pandemic.

Like the British started doing SIX months ago...



But instead of preparing us for this pandemic, what did our Cons do ?

Answer: Blow their ad budget trying to buy themselves a MAJORITY.

By spending gazillions of OUR tax dollars deluging us with commercials about their Porky Action Plan.

Oink. Oink ....



And if you think that's a nightmare....

Thanks to these rabidly ideological and incompetent klown porkers most of the population won't be vaccinated until well into December. And since the Swine flu could surge in the next few weeks, November promises to be an even darker month than it normally is...full of sickness and fear.

Great eh?

Tell your friends. Tell your neighbours. Tell everyone you can. Stephen Harper is definitely NOT a leader. Canada is a COUNTRY not a collection of provinces.

And these Cons have GOTTA go...

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h/t Impolitical

The Swine Flu and Canada's First Nations

I don't know what's going to happen when the Swine Flu returns this fall. Nobody does.

But I do know that we can't afford not to be prepared.

Swine flu spreads four times faster than other viruses and 40 percent of the fatalities are young adults in good health.

Sixty percent of the deaths cover those who have underlying health problems," Chan said. "This means that 40 percent of the fatalities concern young adults -- in good health -- who die of a viral fever in five to seven days.

And pregnant women and aboriginal peoples are also particularly vulnerable.

So I find this hard to believe.

And this absolutely horrifying:

"There is no partnership [with the federal government]. There is no development of the organized system that everyone is part of," he said, noting that only two of 30 communities in his northern territory have a plan for dealing with the swine flu pandemic.

When the Spanish Flu struck Canada in 1918, some native communities were almost wiped out.

This flu bug doesn't seem to be nearly as deadly as the 1918 one. But then it didn't turn into a mass killer until the second wave hit.

As this chart from that year demonstrates.











So we can't take any chances.

And even if the H1N1 bug doesn't mutate into something more deadly, the volume of cases could swamp emergency rooms in Canada's big cities. So can you imagine what could happen in poverty-stricken aboriginal communities?

Our incompetent Con government says it knows what it's doing. But I don't believe them. So I hope somebody is working on an emergency plan, like the biggest air lift Canada has ever seen, to rush aid to those communities.

Because if we knew what could happen to our beautiful native people. And our government just let it happen. It wouldn't just add to our shame.

It would be absolutely CRIMINAL...

What it Feels Like to Have the Swine Flu

Even as the Swine Flu spread faster than any pandemic ever has. And the ominous news kept on multiplying.

Or not multiplying enough.

It may take substantially longer to make the full amounts of swine flu vaccine countries have contracted to buy because efforts to improve the yield of the vaccine seed strains aren't bearing fruit, experts say.

The Swine Flu didn't scare me.

I figured that even if I did get it, the piggy bug would be just like any other flu. A good excuse to call in sick...and feel GOOD about it.

But that was until I read this story.

What’s a little dizziness compared with the thumping pain of a headache that made even the softest pillow feel like a rough stone; or a bit of ear-fuzz after a throat so inflamed that swallowing water felt like imbibing shards of glass?

By teatime, as I sat watching Dumbo with the children, I realised that I couldn’t really lift my head. Shooting pains were assailing my arms and chest, and the muscles in my legs were joining in. And I was hot, really hot. Except actually I was cold, really cold. Brrr, shivery cold. Or was I hot? I had absolutely no idea.

If I closed my eyes, I could definitely see pink elephants, though. Dancing ones, with psychedelic trombones . . .

Oh no. Not thumping pain, shards of glass, and psychedelic TROMBONES. Now I'm terrified.

I'm writing my will. Instructing my doctors to hit me with all the painkillers ...or smack they got.

Trying to decide what's scarier....dying a horrible death...or being paralysed?

A fully licensed vaccine against human swine flu may not be ready until the end of the year, months after a second wave of flu is expected to hit Canada in the fall...

That would leave Canada and other nations to decide whether to invoke emergency measures and vaccinate people with only limited information about safety and dosing.

And of course trying to figure out whether I'd look like a genius or an IDIOT.

If I went to the movies dressed like this...
















You know I can't shake the feeling that this piggy bug story is going to get bigger and bigger until it EATS all the others. Including any plans for a fall election. And maybe even the Olympics.

Damn. Who knew life could be so dangerous eh?

Enjoy it while you can...

The Swine Flu and the Harper Cons

I know nobody wants to talk about it. But in case you haven't noticed the Swine Flu pandemic has taken a turn for the worse.

One moment you have what seems like an ordinary bug, and the next moment your lungs stop working.

"If you're young and healthy, you can recover from that severe lung injury. People do. But it takes a very long time.....Sometimes we're talking about a month, five weeks on a ventilator before you are breathing on your own. Some people can be left with so much residual lung damage, they will have abnormal lungs for their lifetime."

And if we get hid hard, and enough young and healthy people get sick, we won't have enough ventilators to treat them.

Or enough vaccine in time.

A fully licensed vaccine against human swine flu may not be available until the end of the year, months after a second wave of flu is expected to hit Canada in the fall, World Health Organization officials said Monday.

But despite all these alarming signs Stephen Harper's Con government isn't taking the threat seriously.

Where is the evidence that Canada is taking the swine flu seriously?...Nothing like what the U.S. leaders said has been uttered by their counterparts in Canada.....Prime Minister Stephen Harper has not spoken out on the issue....By failing to express a similar urgency, Canada's leaders are indicating it is okay to be complacent...

Great eh?

I knew we were in trouble when Stephen Harper finally revealed his plans to eliminate ALL taxes.

Destroy government and medicare. And turn our country into an anarchist jungle.

Perhaps Harper was oversimplifying; maybe he didn't fully think through what he was saying. But this is the prime minister of the country, not some guy who's had one too many drinks at a cocktail party and begun railing against the evils of government.

But who knew incompetence could be so DEADLY?

Oh boy. We were warned but didn't listen.

And now it's going to KILL us....

Swine Flu and the Pandemic of 1957

Well now we know what the new H1N1 flu virus is probably going resemble. Not the savage mass murderer of 1918. The far more gentle killer of 1957.

The swine flu strain that has sickened people in 30 countries rivals the severity of the 1957 “Asian flu” pandemic that killed 2 million people, scientists said.

But a killer nonetheless.

The virus is more contagious than seasonal flu, the Geneva-based WHO said yesterday. A “moderate” pandemic like the 1957 Asian flu could kill 14.2 million people and shave 2 percent from the global economy in the first year, the World Bank said in October.

Which makes what this Canadian doctor says ring a little hollow.

....The media must be more critical. How many pandemic false alarms do we need (remember "bird flu" -- the last great threat) before reporters start asking tough questions? How many times do the voices of catastrophe need to be wrong before we doubt their message?

Because a pandemic on the scale of 1957 in a more crowded world where more than a billion people go hungry, is nothing to sneeze at.

And what if the second wave of the pandemic is more deadly than the first ? And if you don't warn people about what might happen, how can you get them to change their behaviour?

Or prepare them for a worst case scenario...as scary as this one.

This is the scenario that has some scientists worried. The two viruses meet — possibly in Asia, where bird flu is endemic — and combine into a new bug that is both highly contagious and lethal and can spread around the world.

The good news is that when lethal viruses mutate to become more contagious they lose a lot of their killing power. The bad news is that even if this virus doesn't mutate into something deadly, it could still infect billions people so we can't underestimate what it might do.

"This H1N1 hasn't been overblown. It's a puppy, it's an infant, and it's growing....

This virus has got the whole human population in the world to breed in — it's just happened. What we have to do is to watch it, and it may become a wimp and disappear, or it may become nasty."

You know... no matter what that doctor says I think I'm going to keep washing my hands a lot. And opening doors with my elbows.

Because better too prepared than not prepared enough eh?

And besides ....I did a little research and found out that back in 1957 they were also hoping for the best. Wearing suits and ties to rock concerts.

But preparing for the worst.....

Is Recession Stress Stealing Our Lives?

It was so great to be able to chillout by the lake today, and concentrate on the important things in life. Like throwing the stick for the hound.

Especially after reading this story.

The study by Desjardins Financial Security, found that one-third of the 1,062 people surveyed are experiencing anxiety, losing sleep, suffering from headaches, muscle aches and other physical tension — symptoms that often precede more serious problems...

"They're stressed, anxious, worried about their jobs," the release stated. "They're losing sleep, and they're losing confidence in the economy. Many Canadian employees are showing these and other signs of mental distress.

I'd like to say gosh I hadn't noticed. But of course I have. You can see the worry all around you. You can feel it in in the air. Even the wild and crazy blogosphere seems strangely muted. Serious stuff is out. Cute stuff is in. Is that a reflection of anxious times, is it escapism, or is it just BURNOUT ?

But who can blame us eh? Two weeks ago all we had to worry about was the recession and the Harper government....and who would kill us first.

Now we've got to seriously consider whether the Aporkalypse will kill us even sooner.

So it's no wonder all that stress is adding up. Making us gloomy.

And burning some out...












PostSecret

But here's the thing eh?

The recession and the Aporkalypse may or may not kill us, but depression will DEFINITELY steal our lives.

Which is why I'm so glad I have an old hound to remind me it's glorious Spring.

And put everything into perspective...












Woof. Woof.

Where's that stick?

Isn't life FUN?

The Swine Flu and the Genetic Mystery

As Mexico prepares to shutdown.

The big question remains a mystery.

The WHO and flu experts say they do not yet know enough about the new strain to say how deadly it actually is, how far it might spread and how long any potential pandemic may last.

So we still don't know why it only seems to be killing people in Mexico. Or even how many of dead in that country were really killed by the bug.

Did they die because secondary infections like pneumonia couldn't be properly treated because of antibiotic resistance, which is a big problem in poor countries?

Or are there TWO strains of the virus out there? One mild one that spreads relatively easily. And another more deadly version that doesn't.

The good news is that the virus' genetic structure is being closely examined so we should find out soon.

The bad news is that because it doesn't seem to be a lethal threat anywhere but Mexico, people, might become complacent, not take enough precautions.

And forget that even a mild pandemic virus can do a lot of damage. Even in a place like Canada.

Pierre Trudeau invoked the War Measures Act in 1970 to battle radical Quebec separatists. Would Prime Minister Stephen Harper invoke its successor to combat the flu?

Given that officials estimate between 10,000 and 58,000 deaths in a "mild" pandemic, provinces and municipalities would be tasked with ensuring morgues and cemeteries have enough capacity.

Because if we can help it we really don't want to go there.

So a little fear is not necessarily a bad thing.

Active caution, then, is what is called for. The world’s policymakers, most of whom live in the northern hemisphere, should not be fooled into thinking the new virus is going away for long, even if it declines over the next few months. Instead, as in any phoney war, they should use the time they have been granted to reinforce the world’s defences by stocking up with antiviral medicine and making vaccines.

As for the WHO's decision to protect the pork producers of the world by changing the name of the virus....from the Swine Flu virus to the Influenza A H1N1 bug, I suppose that makes sense.

It presumably is in pigs somewhere, perhaps in Mexico. The 1918 human H1N1 established itself in pigs by 1930. But, as Dr. Niman pointed out, it could be only in humans now — or even in a ferret.

So while we wait for the answers and prepare for the worst. And wash our hands a lot.

Let's not panic eh?

And give the pigs a break...

Swine Flu: Deadly Threat or Alarmism?

Well I see that Don Martin has swapped his fedora for a white coat....and declared that the swine flu outbreak is nothing to worry about.

It’s likely beyond containment now, but to describe the Mexican swine flu outbreak as a potential re-run of the Spanish influenza pandemic seems, subject to change without notice, wildly alarmist......Today’s swine flu is no 1918 influenza, so perish the comparison.

When in fact, although we shouldn't panic, we simply don't know enough to rule anything out.

What we do know is that patient zero got sick on April 2nd...and the first recorded fatality happened eleven days later.

Which means that the virus has been running wild in Mexico for at least a month. It has only just arrived here.

And we still don't know why so far it has only killed Mexicans.

Is it because there have been many more cases than reported...and there are some other underlying factors?

A couple of factors could be causing the greater death toll in Mexico, said Howard Markel, a physician and director of the Center for the History of Medicine at the University of Michigan.

"They may have had cases for several months now and probably have a greater number of people who have the disease, probably tens of thousands," he said.

Also, he said, the people who have died in Mexico could have had what he called "another co-factor," such as taking medicine or having pre-existing infections that would make them more vulnerable. It's also possible, he said, that those who died had an underlying genetic predisposition or condition.

Is it because they were poor?

Julio Frenk, former health minister of Mexico and now dean of the Harvard School of Public Health, holds an opposing view: The disease could be killing people who are not healthy because of their living conditions.

"There could also be some elements in the host," he said. "These are poor people. Maybe their immune response is not as efficient. So we're going to have to just keep trying to understand why this difference and whether that continues as the epidemic unfolds."

Or is it just the first relatively mild wave of what could become a deadly pandemic? Just like the one that broke out in the Spring of 1918. But didn't turn into an agent of mass murder until August....when the second wave hit.












The bottom line: We still don't know anything about this new virus or where it's going.

Panic is bad, but so is denial.

Idiocy is WORSE.

“It is a tragedy only for people living ... in slums in Asia or Mexico. But will the honeymoon couple from Edinburgh die? No. A couple of Strepsils will do the job."

Don Martin should put his fedora back on.

And what you don't know can kill you...

Swine Flu: Are Travel Bans Necessary?

I see the World Health Organization has raised the pandemic alert to four.

Which only tells us that this new virus travels easily from human to human. Instead of raising it to five which would among other things trigger all kind of travel bans.

But who can blame them?

A decision about travel restrictions or advisories, for example, could affect trade and finances at a time of economic chaos. If the public health emergency declared by the W.H.O. and the Obama administration turns out to be a false alarm, officials will be ridiculed for unnecessarily worrying millions of people — perhaps even for creating fear to justify their budgets.

Especially when they can't be sure how lethal this virus really is:

Occasionally, alerts of a new virus, or a mutation of an old one, come from a laboratory. More often, fatalities are the first clue.

But high initial death rates often fall as officials find that the causative microbe also causes mild, even symptomless cases. Officials may learn that the outbreak has gone on silently for weeks, even months.

And Mexico isn't providing enough answers.

A portrait is emerging of a slow and confused response by Mexico to the gathering swine flu epidemic. And that could mean the world is flying blind into a global health storm.

It remained unclear where and how the epidemic began, how it has spread, who it has killed or how fast it is growing. And the government has yet to take some basic steps critical to containing any outbreak, such as quick treatment of people who had contact with the victims.

But who can blame the Mexicans when the real problem is poverty?

Or blame the WHO for taking that into account...and understanding what a complete travel ban could do to Mexico's shattered economy?














Especially since the virus cannot be contained. Not a single person has died anywhere else in the world. And the global economic crisis has already forced 50 million people in the developing countries into extreme poverty.

The kind of poverty that KILLS.

The WHO had to choose between the outbreak and the recession, and they came down in the middle.

Which at this point doesn't really change anything anyway. Once an influenza bug starts spreading NOTHING can stop it. It'll find you in Acapulco..... it'll find you in Chibougamou.

Until we determine whether the virus is a killer...or has mutated into something less lethal...we can't really determine the right response.

And kicking up the alert a notch could cause mass panic...for nothing.

Not that anything can help the WHO. Even if they're right they'll be criticized.

If they're wrong they'll be damned. And there is only one message we need right now.

Don't panic...be PREPARED.

Swine Flu and the Echo of 1918

As the swine flu continues to spread around the world.

The billion dollar question is why is it so mild in most places and so deadly in Mexico?

It may be that we simply don't have enough cases to get a proper picture of the outbreak. It could be the virus is fizzling out...which H1N1 viruses often do as they pass from person to person.

Or it could be an echo of the Spanish flu of 1918. Which was mild when it first arrived in the Spring of that year. And deadly by the fall.












This old chart shows how the virus suddenly mutated into a killer. One that caused the immune systems of young and healthy patients to go into overdrive. Which also seems to be happening in Mexico and is another echo of 1918.

And the question is whether the virus has been in Mexico long enough to trigger a second wave...or whether the deaths are just a wrong turn for the virus as it mutates into a milder form. And learns to live with its hosts instead of killing them.

The problem is the longer these kind of viruses are out there unchecked by herd immunity, the more likely it is that they might mutate into a more lethal form, or swap genes with something like the Bird Flu virus....and that could be disastrous. Because while the Spanish Flu had an average mortality rate of 2.5 %....and the mortality rate of this virus is slightly higher....the Avian flu has a mortality rate of about fifty per cent.

The good news is that we should be able to answer these questions in a matter of days. And that whatever happens we are infinitely better prepared to deal with a pandemic than we were in 1918.

We have antibiotics, we have ventilators, we have new anti-viral drugs. Thanks to SARS and the Avian flu scare we also have all kinds of plans to deal with an emergency situation.

And above all there is an army of men and women in green and white who have been preparing for years to fight this battle. And we're READY.

So the only thing to fear is fear itself. And if we all do what we have to do.

We can still beat this bug....

Between the Abyss and the Apocalypse

What a strange almost surrealistic Spring.The news is so gloomy and frightening. But in the Great White North all that bad stuff seems so far away. Like it's not really happening.

Take the recession for example. It keeps on getting worse...and claiming new victims. But I can't see the misery. Everything around me seems normal ...except for a few haunting voices.

Like this moving post.

Recessions are depressing and the depression has finally gotten to me....

Willy thought he was different, than those workers who gave up their dreams to stand in one spot for thirty years. Willy was a mover and shaker who followed his dreams and always reached for the brass wing, but now in the end he has been replaced by bits and bytes, also questioning the choices he made.

In the end Just Another Willy Loman.

Or the old bank manager on TV trying to hold on to his dignity, while being hectored by some young bimbo on how to fill out a resume.

Or the man in the hospital waiting room telling another "I'm 59-years-old and nobody wants me."

But if you weren't listening for it you'd never know it was happening.

Because Spring in the Great White North looks just like it always does.















But for how long I wonder?

How long before the pain becomes unbearable? How long before they tell us not to kiss or hold hands..... like they're telling them in Mexico?

And what would it be like if a recession and a pandemic hit at the same time? And if they do.... how many young adults could be dead by the end of the summer?

Oh boy. Maybe denial has its moment after all.

Maybe it's time to give it a rest. Because life is too short.

Not to live it as well as he did.

Maybe it's time to surrender to Spring...and go a little wild. Fall in love all over again. Make a new video. Paint the town red.

Or just jump on my bike and go REALLY crazy.

Like Danny does...



I wish. But you know what I mean eh?

We all know we are going to die.

But between The Abyss and the Apocalypse.

Will we dare to LIVE?

Swine Flu: When All the World's a Barnyard

OMG. Hit me with a pork chop. With all the things that can kill us these days...the recession, the Cons, Pakistan, Iran...who knew it would be these guys ?

Or that the mortal danger would come from Mexico.

Caramba. Don't forget to keep your party sombrero handy eh? So you can wear it to your funeral.

Although also don't forget that we've seen this panic before.

U.S. officials ordered the manufacture of swine flu virus vaccine and the country proceeded to launch a mass immunization program that saw upwards of 40 million people injected with the vaccine.

The feared pandemic never occurred. But the vaccine appeared to trigger a high level of cases of Guillain-Barre syndrome, a type of paralysis that is often, though not always, time limited.

And the reaction was more dangerous than the disease.

On the other hand this is troubling.

The new strain contains gene sequences from North American and Eurasian swine flus, North American bird flu and North American human flu.

Most of Mexico’s dead were young, healthy adults, and none were over 60 or under 3 years old, the World Health Organization said. That alarms health officials because seasonal flus cause most of their deaths among infants and bedridden elderly people, but pandemic flus — like the 1918 Spanish flu, and the 1957 and 1968 pandemics — often strike young, healthy people the hardest.

The leading theory on why so many young, healthy people die in pandemics is the “cytokine storm,” in which vigorous immune systems pour out antibodies to attack the new virus. That can inflame lung cells until they leak fluid, which can overwhelm the lungs

Great eh? Why go out with a bang? When you can go out with an OINK...choking in your own mucus.

Because that's the same kind of mixture and the same deadly demographic that resulted in this catastrophe.

So I guess the questions that need to be urgently answered are these:

(1) What exactly is this virus... and is it being spread by humans?














(2) Are the young and the elderly being spared because they are more likely to be vaccinated...or because their immune systems aren't as strong?

(3) Is the virus being spread by migrating birds as it was in 1918?

And of course the ultimate question. Is it just panic.... or the beginning of a pandemic that could make the recession look like a picnic?

Gawd. Just what we needed eh? Another reason to worry.

Another reminder of how puny we are.

And that all the world's a barnyard...