Well nothing but good news to report today about the story nobody wants to talk about....the bug in the barnyard. Like the news that the Mexicans have been able to hang on to their sense of humour. To alleviate the boredom of a five-day lockdown in the capital, Mexicans have been gathering in apartments, or joking online. "There's a new tool in Facebook called, 'Who would I cough on if I had influenza?' and you can choose up to five characters," Mr. Talamantes said. "People are playing with that and choosing politicians." Gawd. Now I'm jealous. Or the story about how the British are being encouraged to have flu friends.
Facebook friends, Twitter followers, AND flu friends? Isn't that AWESOME? Lucky them. But the best news of the day was that I finally was able to convince my stubborn fool beloved friend Angus ...who believes the pandemic threat is a just a plot to make us forget the recession and panic us into fascism...about the real dangers of mutation.
By pointing out that the mild virus that's visiting us in Canada, could be a more lethal variety in the fall, after it visits the Southern Hemisphere.
Where surveillance is weak, seasonal H1N1 flu strains are almost all resistant to Tamiflu...so if they swap spit with this new bug anything could happen.
And by showing him this video...
After which all he could say was "gross" and "SCARY."
Excellent dude. What would we do without YouTube eh? Now forget about that fascist plot. Wash your hands. And let's go play Swinefighter....
And what a relief it was to get away from all that depressing Piggy Flu stuff.
At least that's what I thought it would be....
Until the horrifying moment....just as that boring introductory video was running.... when the CBC breathlessly interrupted its coverage to bring us this dramatic newser...
Gawd.One moment it was a Paean to Iggy, the next moment it was the Piggy Aporkalypse !!
It wasn't anything we urgently needed know.
Alberta's top public health doctor, Andre Corriveau, said the fact the flu has been transmitted from humans to pigs is no reason to raise alarms about the severity of this flu outbreak.
"From a human health perspective, it's just an anecdote. We were already dealing with this issue in our population."
But it sure put a dent....or an oink....in the Coronation. Because going from the dreamy Liberal video, to the stark horror of the Alberta Aporkalypse, and back to the end of the video in about five minutes was a rather SHOCKING experience. And I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of Canadians didn't even hear what Iggy had to say when the video ended....because they were too busy putting on oven mitts to throw their pork chops into the garbage.
And golly what a COINCIDENCE . A piggy newser timed to begin at the EXACT time Iggy was due to start speaking. You don't think Gerry Ritz or the porker Harper had their trotters on that one do you?
Although maybe it backfired, because it turns out less than half of Canadians are worried about getting sick.
Which I guess means they believe that the media has been pumping up the story, and the threat is receding.
While the others are more pessimistic...
Golly. Now I'm confused. But I must say one thing...let's give the CBC its due. Who knew Iggy's Coronation could be such a memorable experience?
It's too soon to let our guard down. Complacency can still be fatal. Millions of people could still die. But it looks as if the new influenza virus isn't the killer of 1918. And more good news if you can call it that. It also looks like many people in Mexico might have died because they didn't receive proper medical attention in time. Or self medicated themselves.
There may well be other factors to explain why patients like Mrs. Gutiérrez, whose medical records show a desperate, belated scramble by doctors to keep her alive, are dying in Mexico at a higher rate than flu patients elsewhere. Mexicans may have been hit by a different, deadlier strain, or the flu may have infected more people who had other health problems, researchers speculate.
But one important factor may be the eclectic approach to health care in Mexico, where large numbers of people self-prescribe antibiotics, take only homeopathic medicine, or seek out mysterious vitamin injections. For many, only when all else fails do they go to a doctor, who may or may not be well prepared.
And the danger is that the same thing could happen in other parts of the world. As the outbreak spreads, and so does panic. And people try to get their hands on anti-viral drugs like Tamiflu. Because along with a drug called Relenza it's the main weapon in our arsenal to fight a pandemic. Misusing one or the other could cause resistance to spread. And a new study suggests that if a pandemic breaks out we will need both of them. What they learned was that the best possible way to stop a pandemic from spreading was for every country to have stockpiles of two different antiviral drugs to treat flu: A primary stockpile and a secondary one. The first wave of cases should be treated with the secondary drug until it runs out, then the next wave should be treated with the primary drug. This knocks out the first wave of virus, and then just as it begins to evolve resistance hits it with a new drug. Apparently in scenarios where public health officials respond like this, using what's called "sequential drug multitherapy" or SMC, the spread of the virus is reduced significantly. "Monotherapy," or the treatment with just one drug, created a lot of drug-resistant flu strains and did not significantly impair the spread of the epidemic.
And since many countries don't even have enough of ONE drug, you can imagine what could happen. Today was a good day. But the battle is far from over....
As Mexico prepares to shutdown. The big question remains a mystery. The WHO and flu experts say they do not yet know enough about the new strain to say how deadly it actually is, how far it might spread and how long any potential pandemic may last. So we still don't know why it only seems to be killing people in Mexico. Or even how many of dead in that country were really killed by the bug. Did they die because secondary infections like pneumonia couldn't be properly treated because of antibiotic resistance, which is a big problem in poor countries?
Or are there TWO strains of the virus out there? One mild one that spreads relatively easily. And another more deadly version that doesn't. The good news is that the virus' genetic structure is being closely examined so we should find out soon. The bad news is that because it doesn't seem to be a lethal threat anywhere but Mexico, people, might become complacent, not take enough precautions. And forget that even a mild pandemic virus can do a lot of damage. Even in a place like Canada. Pierre Trudeau invoked the War Measures Act in 1970 to battle radical Quebec separatists. Would Prime Minister Stephen Harper invoke its successor to combat the flu? Given that officials estimate between 10,000 and 58,000 deaths in a "mild" pandemic, provinces and municipalities would be tasked with ensuring morgues and cemeteries have enough capacity.
Because if we can help it we really don't want to go there.
Active caution, then, is what is called for. The world’s policymakers, most of whom live in the northern hemisphere, should not be fooled into thinking the new virus is going away for long, even if it declines over the next few months. Instead, as in any phoney war, they should use the time they have been granted to reinforce the world’s defences by stocking up with antiviral medicine and making vaccines.
As for the WHO's decision to protect the pork producers of the world by changing the name of the virus....from the Swine Flu virus to the Influenza A H1N1 bug, I suppose that makes sense.
It presumably is in pigs somewhere, perhaps in Mexico. The 1918 human H1N1 established itself in pigs by 1930. But, as Dr. Niman pointed out, it could be only in humans now — or even in a ferret.
So while we wait for the answers and prepare for the worst. And wash our hands a lot.
Well I see the World Health Organization has kicked up it's Pandemic Alert from stage four to stage five.
But what does it really mean?
Answer: Not much. Especially if you live in a developed country like Canada where pandemic preparations are well advanced.
It's really aimed at the developing countries where millions of poor people are vulnerable to any kind of flu. And their governments need to assess their emergency response capabilities...and ask for help if necessary.
And so people everywhere can be encouraged to do the simple things that can make a difference. Like washing their hands. Or staying home if they get sick.
What it also means is that it probably won't be long before we move from level five to level six...the Pandemic Phase. Because the difference between the two is minimal.
But that only means the bug is spreading widely, and it doesn't mean we're all going to DIE.
Because we still don't know how deadly this bug really is. And there is room for optimism. The virus could still turn out to be relatively harmless. Just a few days of discomfort....or a another good reason to call in sick.
Which is why I'm not panicking yet.
And the only thing I'm worried about right now is how the hell am I supposed to look cool and sexy this summer ?
Dressed like this....
And what about my poor dog? He LOVES pork chops.
You know I think I once read that every time you laugh you boost your immune system. So my advice to everyone right now is don't panic. Prepare for the worst. Wash your hands. Laugh like your life depended on it. And let your health professionals do the worrying...
Well I see that Don Martin has swapped his fedora for a white coat....and declared that the swine flu outbreak is nothing to worry about. It’s likely beyond containment now, but to describe the Mexican swine flu outbreak as a potential re-run of the Spanish influenza pandemic seems, subject to change without notice, wildly alarmist......Today’s swine flu is no 1918 influenza, so perish the comparison. When in fact, although we shouldn't panic, we simply don't know enough to rule anything out. What we do know is that patient zero got sick on April 2nd...and the first recorded fatality happened eleven days later.
Which means that the virus has been running wild in Mexico for at least a month. It has only just arrived here. And we still don't know why so far it has only killed Mexicans.
Is it because there have been many more cases than reported...and there are some other underlying factors? A couple of factors could be causing the greater death toll in Mexico, said Howard Markel, a physician and director of the Center for the History of Medicine at the University of Michigan.
"They may have had cases for several months now and probably have a greater number of people who have the disease, probably tens of thousands," he said.
Also, he said, the people who have died in Mexico could have had what he called "another co-factor," such as taking medicine or having pre-existing infections that would make them more vulnerable. It's also possible, he said, that those who died had an underlying genetic predisposition or condition.
Is it because they were poor?
Julio Frenk, former health minister of Mexico and now dean of the Harvard School of Public Health, holds an opposing view: The disease could be killing people who are not healthy because of their living conditions.
"There could also be some elements in the host," he said. "These are poor people. Maybe their immune response is not as efficient. So we're going to have to just keep trying to understand why this difference and whether that continues as the epidemic unfolds." Or is it just the first relatively mild wave of what could become a deadly pandemic? Just like the one that broke out in the Spring of 1918. But didn't turn into an agent of mass murder until August....when the second wave hit.
The bottom line: We still don't know anything about this new virus or where it's going. Panic is bad, but so is denial. Idiocy is WORSE. “It is a tragedy only for people living ... in slums in Asia or Mexico. But will the honeymoon couple from Edinburgh die? No. A couple of Strepsils will do the job." Don Martin should put his fedora back on.
