In a recent post, I wrote about Erin O'Toole's astounding surge in an Abacus Poll, and I wondered whether that meant he could win the next election.
For it was quite a surge, and those numbers seemed to come out of nowhere.
But now I am feeling somewhat reassured.
For there is a new Abacus poll out, and I like what I see...
The Trudeau Liberals have pulled out of their dive and are still leading. O'Toole and his Cons are starting to decline. Again. And the NDP and their hapless leader are going nowhere. As usual.
It seems that as the weather gets warmer, and more Canadians get vaccinated, the mood is brightening.
And that can only further boost the Liberals and make their leader even more popular.
If that's possible.
While making the Doomsday Cons who hoped Team Canada would fail look more and more ridiculous...
Or more and more like pathetic RepubliCon stooges.
But while that and all those numbers are great, I think these are the numbers that could well win the Liberals another majority:
For as the pollster Phillipe J. Fournier points out the Cons have a great big climate problem.
Fresh data provided by the latest poll from the Angus Reid Institute (ARI) shows Conservative voters stand alone in believing that climate change should not be a priority for the federal government. According to Angus Reid’s data, many Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) voters do not even consider climate change as a serious threat to the planet, unlike voters from all other major federal parties.
They don't don't believe that climate change is a serious threat. They don't want us to do more to fight it.
So when O'Toole claims that the only reason his supporters rejected his climate change resolution at the recent Con convention was because it was too confusing, and a mere distraction.
Conservative Leader Erin O'Toole told CBC News a recent vote by party delegates to reject adding "climate change is real" to the policy book was a disappointment that distracted from the party's larger plan to levy a price on carbon.
In a wide-ranging interview with CBC's Front Burner, O'Toole said he believes the members assembled for the party's March policy convention weren't rejecting the actual science of climate change but rather a resolution that was "hard to understand."
O'Toole is the one who sounds dangerously confused...
And with an election on the horizon, and the summer promising to be a really hot one, I suspect Captain Outhouse will soon be sweating like a pig in climate purgatory.
Data from this poll suggests that if conservative voters in this country ever embrace serious policies to curb Canada’s carbon emissions, they will do so kicking and screaming. But unless O’Toole manages to convince his faithful base of supporters that there are no plausible path to victory without a credible environmental plan, the CPC could remain on opposition benches for years to come.
Or just looking like an idiot...
But I believe that their failure to deal with the reality of climate change, is the self inflicted wound that will finally finish them off.
And give the Trudeau Liberals the majority they need to get Canada back on its feet.
And set course for a greener future...
13 comments:
There were two articles published recently on the matter of polling, and where the Liberals might best hope to get over the top of 170. David Akin says that the best path is, oddly enough, out West, where Kenney shitting the bed has weighed heavily on O'Toole, along with O'Toole's own weathervane commitment to "Western affairs" (whatever that means, I guess the Buffalo Manifesto is a decent gauge of public opinion among the cosplay cowboy contingent with tin foil lining their Stetsons). In other words, Trudeau benefits from Kenney and O'Toole being all hat and no cattle, or nothing but buffalo flap.
Éric Grenier meanwhile, says it's their usual path: Quebec, which explains the recent policy overtures and Blanchet's recent downward track. I suppose whatever 15 or so seats they potentially gain back will end up becoming the default retconned narrative, if that ends up being the outcome.
The ballot box question isn't in doubt. The Liberals have performed well on the pandemic and the Cons have offered nothing. Nothing but conspiracy theories about GHINA and blaming the government for things outside its control, like Trump's extortionist protectionism, Pfizer and Moderna's production issues or Boris and the E.U. having a dick measuring contest. None of this matters anymore. What matters is who has the best plan to go forward. Or who has a plan at all. The Cons have nothing but regurgitation of the same shit on a different day.
Voters do not care anymore about WeGhazi, and there are no other fake scandals weighing disproportionately on the news cycle as in 2019. Real life, thankfully, is not Reddit's paranoid echo chamber. The handful of CPC-voting Leafs fans on Fakebook may feel dejected, but nobody with two brain cells to rub together believes QAnonsense that Justin and/or Sophie jumped in bed with Carey Price. Run an election on ankle monitors, Craig Kielburger's smirk, and Margaret Trudeau's finances or her whereabouts 20 years ago, and see where you end up.
Anything can happen in the course of a campaign. But things are starting to open up again, vaccines are pouring in, and the Liberals will be able to once more exercise their strength of in-person engagement and emerge from the Zoom cocoon. I would say right now that Trudeau fils has a good chance of repeating dad's trajectory. Bring on 1974.
Interesting that you that mention 1974. With the recent discovery in Kamloops where do you think that trail may end eh?
Who knew what when?
Oh look, it's the resident cryptic troll again. The trail ends where it began, genius: European colonialism dating back some 400 years. Gee, I thought you were looking to smear PMJT with QAnon sex scandal intrigue at the Clinton Foundation of the North that he has nothing to do with, but I guess this is the hill you've decided to die on instead. Wow, how perverse and pathetic. Shame on you. This is a new low even for Cons. Exploiting a national tragedy to own the Libs.
No party in Canada has clean hands when it comes to Indigenous issues, but the conversation has dramatically shifted, and the Liberals now are trying in good faith to do better. The Cons don't give a shit; they never have and never will, as demonstrated by their continued "white"-knuckle defensiveness of Drunk Johnny Mac.
"Who knew what when"? Are you seriously trying to imply that Trudeau the son is personally responsible for any perceived "sins of his father" that may have taken place when the current prime minister was in elementary school? Just like your kith and kin were blaming him for Mulroney selling off vaccine manufacturing capacity when Justin was a teenager? Or the Bloc was trying to fault him for the War Measures Act being invoked before he was even born? I guess we're back to him being sired by Castro when (checks notes) he was already five years old. Where's his birth certificate? Not to get all science fiction-y on you, but Cons really are a waste of space and time.
This is Canada's collective responsibility, one that Cons and their fragile white base are trying to deflect from and avoid. It's not a "scandal" of "Justin Trudeau" any more than the Holocaust is a "scandal" of "Angela Merkel". Again, shame on you. But thanks for proving once and for all that the Canadian GQP has gone fully into "Why didn't Obama stop 9/11" levels of being completely detached from reality. Do explain how Biden is personally at fault for the Tulsa massacre that the GQP don't want America to address either.
Get a life and get help for your obsession, or just GTFO.
Jackie, your cogent comments laced with a very sophisticated right amount of humour always show a passion for the truth and Milady and I are wondering why on earth you haven't been offered a column somewhere in print or cyberspace to kick some right wing butt! Also, have you ever thought of an alternative online radio show like Ryan Jespersen Real Talk here is Alberta? Your mastery of the English idiom is in our opinion one of a kind!
Oh Justin’s dad will be going down for this along with most other former PMs. Watching Justin denounce his own father ought to fun. That and the Liberal Party changing its name to the genocide party of Canada ought to be good too.
@Sisyphus -- I have a blog with an audience of one. I've been hesitating to dip into social media because it's a dumpster fire. I do like Ryan's show, though, and Peter Mansbridge on Sirius XM. He has a great panel with Chantal and Bruce Anderson. I got kicked off Reddit for denouncing the Cons as the racists they are lol.
@Anon troll 7:34 -- Are you STILL having a hatewank over trying to pin a centuries-long national tragedy on "Justin's dad"? Going down for what? He's been dead for 20 years. The idea that Justin Trudeau would publicly "denounce" his own father for anything is absurd. He's cut his own path in politics and has said numerous times that he's not a carbon copy of PET, nor should he be. But he's the one who's actually showing any amount of momentum whatsoever on actually making amends.
And I do think PET's white paper was meant with the best of intentions. He approached it naively, as a question of "citizenship" rather than "culture" or identity per se. JWR doesn't even belong in this discussion because of her and daddy's longstanding beef with Trudeau père et fils. But she'll put herself in there no doubt, in fact she already has, because an election is coming and she feels a need to reset the clock on her 15 minutes of infamy. Maybe Wornout is hard-up for cash and attention himself.
But I digress: this is Canada's collective responsibility. It's also the fault of the Catholic Church, the British crown, the umpteen governments that France has gone through... If anyone ought to "go down," it's the dysfunctional family at Buckingham Palace, and every pope dating back to the age of Columbus. Take it up with Liz and Frankie instead of hyper focusing on PET. Marc Miller has, Trudeau himself has, why not you?
How come you're so quick to say "most" other former PMs, then only blame the Liberals and call them the "genocide party of Canada"? You mean Liberals like Kenney and O'Toole going all-in to defend that legendary Grit Johnny Mac? Or were you referring to that "Laurentian elite" Stephen Harper, who proclaimed that Indigenous issues were "not on [the government's] radar"? How about Liberal backbencher Andy Scheer, alleged by an actual Indigenous elder to have said right to his face "I don't need your Indian votes to win"? How about the Liberals' finance guy Skippy Poilievre, who derided Indigenous people's supposed lack of work ethic? What about Lynn Beyak, who needs no introduction? Yeah, shame on those Liberals, right?
Oh, wait, those were all Cons, aka the Canadian Republican American Party or CRAP. No one ever said that ANY government in Canada had clean hands, but you only seem to be fixated on making sure the Liberals wear ALL of the blame. When the Crapper Cons aren't even bothering to try and build back better, and in fact are only making things worse. You're so desperate to "own" Trudeau that you're obfuscating who is really at the center of importance: the Indigenous people themselves. You really should be ashamed.
Stop it. Get some help.
By the by, are you a Topham troll? This narrative is cropping up in a lot of places these days, and I'm not the only one to have noticed:
Does anyone else see that @CPC_HQ is leading a distraction howling and defending MacDonald by attacking anyone who was liberal throughout history as way to help @erinotoole and a bus load of other #CPC MPs hide from their most racist comments they made over many many years?
They've even got their American media partners at the American owned Postmedia and toilet fodder SUN to lead the charge. They're equating Pierre Trudeau with the genocidal MacDonald just b/c conservatives are assholes who hate PET - assholes, no other word for them.
And FYI, in case you honestly think that Trudeau II is going to piss on his father's grave just because Cons think going full Clinton derangement, Kennedy truther, Hunter Biden's laptop, on the Trudeau family, is a way to score points? It wasn't that long ago that you should have learned that lesson already:
It’s even more than that - by attacking PET they are attacking PMJT and that is their point, policy - always has been, always will be. They best take care PMJT has shown he can deal it out. As I recall he almost got an election called to stop the garbage directed to his Mom.
By all means, bring out your dead and make this personal. Do you forget so quickly what happened to Angry Tom when he decided to awaken the old man? You won't like the results when all is said and done. Forget 1974. When the Liberals, and PMJT in particular, get through with you, 1993 would look like a whopping Con majority.
Hi Jackie @8:36 PM....I don't know what Akin is going on about. The only way I see the Liberals getting some traction in Alberta is if the Maverick Party steals some seats from the Kenney Cons, which in my opinion is unlikely. I can see the Liberals gaining more seats in Quebec since the Bloc Quebecois has been all but useless during the pandemic. And as long as the Cons can't get another fake scandal going I see a very happy fall in our future...
AnonyCon 11:18 pm....Are you out of your mind? Has your toxic Trudeau hate driven you off the deep end? Do you seriously think that you can pin the Kamloops tragedy on a Trudeau? Go take a hike you pathetic loser...
Hi Jackie @2:17 AM...Thank you for dealing with that pathetic troll. I didn't have the energy to say what you did so magnificently. Just the thought that the Cons might try to blame the Trudeau family for the Kamloops horror show makes me want to vomit. I can't believe how low the Cons have fallen. But that same troll and others have been bombarding me with ugly threatening comments, so they are literally humming with frustration. Needless to say they can't intimidate me, but like you I wonder if we will see the same detachment from reality that we are seeing with Trump's followers in the U.S. So they can truly become the Trump Party North....
Hi Sisyphus....I totally agree with you, Jackie really is one of a kind. She is truly magnificent, and knows more about Canada and its history than 90% of Canadians. She has a blog at https://missfuddleduddle.blogspot.com which I recommend you read, and if she ever wants to write guest posts for this blog, I would happily add the pictures, and my humble blog would never look so good....
AnonyCon@7:34 PM....Do you seriously believe that Justin Trudeau will denounce his father? Are you that ill or that desperate? I bet you write your comments with your pants down to your knees, and in a state of fevered depravity. As Jackie says in her comment to you please get some help...
Hi Jackie@9:39 PM....Well said, that ugly Con troll really is out of his or her mind. I spend a few minutes when I got home looking at all the stuff O'Toole has written defending Sir John A MacDonald. But if it worked for him once I doubt it will work for him after the Kamloops horror. As for Topham Guerin, they seem to be trying to do for O'Toole, what they did for Boris Johnson, and that is make him look like a nice guy who is good for women and gays. It makes sense, they need to go after the soft or blue Liberal vote, but the more people see the overexposed O'Toole the less they tend to like him. So bring on Mr Nice Guy....
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