In my last post I looked at how a number of polls were suggesting that the Trudeau Liberals are becoming more and popular.
And I wondered when would be the best time to have an election, and go for the majority that this country needs so badly.
Well now I think I have the answer.
The sooner the better.
For according to this new and massive survey the Liberals are rapidly becoming Canada's party.
A new large-sample public-opinion survey that permits detailed examination of close races suggests the federal Liberals are well-positioned to make seat gains, as Justin Trudeau decides whether to call an election campaign that could begin as early as this summer.
And the time is now.
“The message from this survey for the Liberals is ‘Run, don’t walk, to the writ,’” pollster Greg Lyle of Innovative Research Group said, using Ottawa jargon for an election call. “The table is set for Liberal gains in most competitive seats outside Quebec and they would be crazy to wait a day longer than necessary.”
For the Liberals are growing stronger, and have every reason to celebrate.
To say the results are encouraging for the Liberals is a huge under-statement.
While O'Toole's Bigot Party is crumbling...
The Tories have lost ground in their base seats. While that is not a problem in their Prairie base, they are now vulnerable in seats they won by 10 points outside of the Prairies, both those in English Canada and those in the Quebec Region.
And as a bonus so is Jagmeet Singh's NDP...
Lyle finds the Liberals are making trouble for the NDP in a cluster he calls based on results over the last decade. These are the 29 seats that formed the basis of Jack Layton’s Orange Wave in 2011, but even in 2019 Jagmeet Singh was able to hold 19 of them.
But now, Lyle found, NDP support is down 15 points from 2019. Liberal support is up 9 points. So whereas the NDP led the Liberals by 12 points across this cluster at the last election, the Liberals now lead the NDP by 12 points.
So you don't have to be a rocket scientist to figure out that going now, is probably better than going later.
The bottom line is clear. The Liberals are poised to gain enough seats to win a comfortable majority. Waiting to call the election provides an opportunity for unexpected events (remember WE) to erode their current advantage. While there is no guarantee the Liberals will be able to hold this lead in a campaign, dropping the writ this summer allows them to start with a very strong advantage.
If you read this blog regularly, you know that none of this surprises me, and that I agree with something Gerald Butts said the other day:
For those cannibal Cons really are eating each other.
But I'll take that one step further, and say that I have always believed that Pierre Trudeau took the Liberal Party in the direction of modern Canada, leaving the other parties behind.
And that his son Justin, who rode with him, will take our country to an even better place...
And has many miles to go before his amazing journey is over...
And of course I also have many miles to go before my summer is over.
But everything is coming up red and I couldn't be happier.