In my last post I looked at how a number of polls were suggesting that the Trudeau Liberals are becoming more and popular.
And I wondered when would be the best time to have an election, and go for the majority that this country needs so badly.
Well now I think I have the answer.
The sooner the better.
For according to this new and massive survey the Liberals are rapidly becoming Canada's party.
A new large-sample public-opinion survey that permits detailed examination of close races suggests the federal Liberals are well-positioned to make seat gains, as Justin Trudeau decides whether to call an election campaign that could begin as early as this summer.
And the time is now.
“The message from this survey for the Liberals is ‘Run, don’t walk, to the writ,’” pollster Greg Lyle of Innovative Research Group said, using Ottawa jargon for an election call. “The table is set for Liberal gains in most competitive seats outside Quebec and they would be crazy to wait a day longer than necessary.”
For the Liberals are growing stronger, and have every reason to celebrate.
To say the results are encouraging for the Liberals is a huge under-statement.
The Liberals are growing significantly in four groups of seats where they can add seats, and they are stable in the seats they are already strong in. The Liberals already had a very “efficient” vote in the last election. By that we mean they did not run up their margin of victory in a small group of seats but won more seats more narrowly.
While O'Toole's Bigot Party is crumbling...
The Tories have lost ground in their base seats. While that is not a problem in their Prairie base, they are now vulnerable in seats they won by 10 points outside of the Prairies, both those in English Canada and those in the Quebec Region.
And as a bonus so is Jagmeet Singh's NDP...
Lyle finds the Liberals are making trouble for the NDP in a cluster he calls Consistent NDP based on results over the last decade. These are the 29 seats that formed the basis of Jack Layton’s Orange Wave in 2011, but even in 2019 Jagmeet Singh was able to hold 19 of them.
But now, Lyle found, NDP support is down 15 points from 2019. Liberal support is up 9 points. So whereas the NDP led the Liberals by 12 points across this cluster at the last election, the Liberals now lead the NDP by 12 points.
So you don't have to be a rocket scientist to figure out that going now, is probably better than going later.
The bottom line is clear. The Liberals are poised to gain enough seats to win a comfortable majority. Waiting to call the election provides an opportunity for unexpected events (remember WE) to erode their current advantage. While there is no guarantee the Liberals will be able to hold this lead in a campaign, dropping the writ this summer allows them to start with a very strong advantage.
If you read this blog regularly, you know that none of this surprises me, and that I agree with something Gerald Butts said the other day:
For those cannibal Cons really are eating each other.
But I'll take that one step further, and say that I have always believed that Pierre Trudeau took the Liberal Party in the direction of modern Canada, leaving the other parties behind.
And that his son Justin, who rode with him, will take our country to an even better place...
And of course I also have many miles to go before my summer is over.
But everything is coming up red and I couldn't be happier.
30 comments:
Which would explain the kerfuffle over the firings in the Winnipeg lab and JWR accusing Minister Bennett of racism.
All of the Opposition Parties want to prevent an election because it is rather apparent that their best outcome would be another Trudeau minority with a more probable outcome being a Trudeau majority.
As for JWR, she needs to get her name mentioned again, before an election, to remind her constituents that she still exists. As well, she won her seat in 2019 by playing the victim so she needed something to allow her to do it again.
I'm sad that Gerry's not involved in this upcoming campaign. But it's probably for the better, because the CON-spiracy Party of Canada would just go on the warpath howling about "Dalton McGuilty" and "Kathy Loser" and "Justin's Butt Buddy" ad nauseam through the whole writ period. Clearly a party of adult, professional parliamentarians and a government-in-waiting in tip-top shape, said no one ever.
Having noticeably given up on O'Toole, the rest of Con media has resorted to their tired old tactic of trying to split the vote and have the useful idiot NDP do their dirty work for them. Save for a handful of questionable online panels (Léger seems to have taken a few pucks to the head over the course of this pandemic), it isn't working. Wait and see if Kory sends Kouvalis out to do a torqued sample purporting to show another "Singh surge." I remember in 2019 when he claimed to have the NDP winning 100 seats. And challenged Quito Maggi of Mainstreet Research to a bar brawl when called out on his bullshit. I say this because orange Twitter has been crying FAKE NEWS all over Greg Lyle's reply column, so I'm sure they'll be looking for a savior to comfort them with a pacifier of untruths.
The key takeaway from Wells' piece is that he said Lyle's omnibus survey is how backroom strategists look at polling, rather than what casual viewers and pundit bobbleheads talk about on social media and the cable news blabfests. Notice, they never book Lyle, Maggi, or Frank Graves on their segments, who tend to show a more bullish picture for the Liberals. Even Nik Nanos has been curiously invisible lately, now that his pay-through-the-nose polls are showing numbers that CTV's brass don't want to hear. Fife and Wornout must be busy bees these days looking for more Murdoch sleaze about Sophie.
JWR as usual is shamefully exploiting a national tragedy for publicity-seeking purposes and to sell her bargain-basement book. Everything is racist because Jody said so? No, the biggest error on Bennett's part was engaging with that toxic narcissist at all. Whether or not JWR manages to hold onto her seat in VanGran, she'll still be g(r)asping for relevance from the nosebleed section where she belongs. And if the Liberals do win their majority back, O'Toole and Singh will both get turfed for some other no-name from a weak front bench. Call an election, JT. Let the sore-loser bastards freeze in the dark.
PS: BTW, cute pic of father and son in the iconic Benz. Justin seems to have a more utlitarian hockey dad motif going on. But the Honda Ridgeline is a pretty sweet ride, no grocery getter in the least. Certainly more streamlined than a lumbering Ford... or a Kenney, for that matter.
Although maybe he takes the missus out under the moonlight in the family-heirloom convertible. Much to the chagrin and disbelief of all the marriage truthers on social media and loudmouth podcasters, to be sure. And the Ottawa bureau chief of the Globe, amateur NY Post gossip hound he's revealed himself to be.
Just for fun though, when the border opens up I'd like to see a friendly drag race between JT in dad's classic ride, and Biden in the 'vette. Trump isn't welcome, because golf carts aren't suitable for the strip. Although I'm sure he and Rudy will be breaking the sound barrier fleeing the FBI in a white Bronco sooner rather than later.
Fter JWR overreaction I began to wonder about her reelection chances. To label any criticism no matter how neutral as misogynist seems paranoid.
JWR doesn't seem to have the personality traits that would make for good constituancy work . The needle about losing the next election made me hope for some comment from her locality. The Otlib gives a hint from afar that things are not good.
Two kids in a car with no seat belts, PET should have resigned.
This may have something to do with JWR's attack... BTW Simon, always bet on red, Montréal Canadiens rouge that is ! https://twitter.com/downtownrob88/status/1408452611594936324?s=20
Hey so just FYI... Canada might reach 50c next week... I wonder how that will affect the next election?🤔
Hi Ottlib….The Cons and their media stooges are in a frigging frenzy. They can see the writing on the wall, they know they are going to lose, and for many of them it’s just too much. I’ve had to delete five of their comments already, because they were just too Con. So I was not surprised to see Saint Jody making an absolute pig out of herself. Debasing the word racist and making it all about herself at such a tragic time. Unbelievable. Sadly she is about to find out again that most Canadians know what she is doing and consider it disgusting. And of course nothing she does or says will stop the Liberals from winning the next election….
Hi Jackie, …Yes, our shabby Con media is doing its best to try to split the vote, by trying to make the hapless Jagmeet Singh look like a “real” leader instead of a lying Con artist. As for JWR I agree with you that the best thing to do is ignore her since she is obviously trying to drum up publicity for her new book. But I still might have to write something because I am outraged by the way she is defiling the memory of those poor dead children. And all over the word “pension? “ What madness is that?
Steve: When Justin was young, seatbelts were not mandatory .
Hi Rumleyfips….I’ve seen a recent poll in her riding and surprise she’s in a very tight race with a Liberal. I have always hated her conniving personality, but trying to boost here self instead of focusing entirely on our national tragedy is infuriating. Her book is coming out in October so there is really no excuse for her shameful behaviour. She really needs to be told that her fifteen minutes or should I say months is over….
Hi Steve….Shhhhh…don’t give the Cons any ideas. They are using their bots to get the hash tag #trudeauresign going almost every day, so they would welcome more ammunition. They are that desperate. Isn’t it wonderful?
Hi unknown….yes I saw those numbers, and no wonder St Jody is on her high horse. How dare so many people not want to vote for her? I’m sure she’s also blaming that on racism, when in fact she’s a lousy MP who still feels she should be Prime Minister…🤡
Steve: That car is an 1960. In 1958 Mercedes offered lapbelts as an option, not standard equipment , for the 300SL. That car may never have had belts, had Mercedes optional belts or aftermarket belts. Belts were not mandatory in vehicles built without them for a long time but some people fitted them.
!!! 👀
Wow, I did NOT see this coming. Kinda hoped Carney would oust Skippy, but who knows, maybe he'd create enough "swing room" in nearby ridings to help other candidates do just that? How far is Carleton from Ottawa Centre anyway? Adam the kayaker went door-knocking all around the area, and not only dumped Lisa Raitt in his own riding, but other Con candidates in the vicinity, so who knows.
https://www.ctvnews.ca/mobile/politics/mckenna-retiring-from-politics-creates-possible-opening-for-mark-carney-1.5487686
I wish McKenna well. The pandemic probably allowed her some time with family, to think about whether or not she wants to continue taking on the relentless abuse from vitriolic and misogynistic haters online and off.
Sad loss for the LPC, and I'm sure the Kudatah Kenney Klan of drillbillies, troglodytes and neanderthals is cheering and singing 🎶 na na na na hey hey goodbye 🎶 as we speak. But I'm sure she'll be back in some capacity to help the Red Team and/or a post-political Team Trudeau down the road.
Maybe she'll go work for Gerry's organization, or a climate-focused NGO. She's young and has a bright future ahead of her. It's just too bad that Canadian politics was too toxic for someone of her caliber -- and gender. Best of luck, Catherine.
So the thing that is weird is that the polls and the comments on the internet show something very different...why are internet comments ca. 3-1 anti-liberal and pro-con...so that leads me to think that the polls are massively underestimating the conservatives...🤔😬
Hi Jsb...If Canada reaches 50 degrees and stays there for a while, more Canadians will notice that the Liberals have a real climate plan, and that while it's not perfect, it's much much better than the Con's sham plan, or gift to Big Oil. The environment has always been the Con's Achilles heel, and as the days heat up, that will come to be seen as the issue that will finish them off.
As to why the comments in the sewer known as the internet are more Con than progressive, the answer is also simple. The Cons know that they are dying, or running out of history, and they're desperate...
Hi Jackie...Despite her good intentions, McKenna had become more of a liability than an asset. So although I'm sorry to see her leave government, I think she could do more on the outside. And it would be ideal if Mark Carney decided to go after it. Canada is going to need all the financial talent it can get to rebuild or reimagine our economy in a time of burning climate change, and he could leave Cons like Pierre Poilievre looking like road kill. Justin still has a lot of miles to go in whatever car he chooses, but it's good to have people like Freeland and Carney in your back pocket....
Rumley I dont care about facts, he should have known better. He can design the NEP, save the CPP and give us the Charter of rights, but he neglects his won children what kind of man is that? ( sarcasm Rumley I do it all the time)
BTW Erin O toole just self destructed on Canada day.
Nanos numbers leaked today on social are BRUTAL for the CPC. Everyone else is stalled except the LPC.
Bizarrely, it looks like CPC might be bleeding to NDP, possibly out in the prairies where the Maclean's Resistance premiers have nuked the brand (so don't any orange diehards tell me there isn't an overlap, that horseshoe politics isn't real, that Bernie/Trump populists don't exist, or that Singh isn't attacking the wrong enemy). Again, ironic considering Jagmeet and his cohort of central-planning tankies like to pretend that provinces aren't a thing.
No regional information to be had from this tweet, but Christ on a unicycle, if this poll were to reproduce on e-day, the Liberals would completely obliterate the Cons. Max is at 4! Go Max!
Hi Jackie....do you have those Nanos numbers? That Twitter account, whoever it belongs to, has me blocked. I'd like to see them because they would help confirm that NDP rise in the prairies, that I first noticed on a recent Abacus poll. I'm not surprised because the NDP regularly bleeds to the Cons, misogyny, homophobia, etc etc. And of course it's all good news for the Trudeau Liberals. If I was O'Toole I would start getting measured for a coffin....
Hey Simon
I don't have the regionals, but the toplines look like this. (Feel free to save to file and delete this comment if Nik comes after you.) Any movements are small and within the MoE, but it looks at least like an extra point or two might have shifted from CPC to NDP. And then there's Maude -- er, Max...
Nanos weekly federal ballot tracking
Change from 2 weeks ago in ():
#LPC - 37.1 (-0.4)
#CPC - 24.7 (-1.7)
#NDP - 19.3 (+1.8)
#GPC - 7.9 (+0.9)
#BQC - 5.8 (-1.6)
#PPC - 4.1 (+0.5)
Twitter screenshot here: https://i.postimg.cc/LstG8VDd/nanos-weekly-28-jun-2021-timestamped.jpg
So with today's announcement of no fossil fuel vehicles by 2035 in Canada, let us take a moment of silence for the CPC and the hellish oil industry.
*crickets*
Right, back to reality. Now that progress is advancing at a record pace, the CPC is no longer needed in Canadian parliament. The NDP and Bloc can argue on policy and the Green Party (assuming it survives/resurfaces...) can hold LPC feet to fire on Climate Change issues.
Of course, electorates have short memories so watch Bob Fife and the other Postmedia goons closely...
Nine. Teen. Seventy. Four.
https://globalnews.ca/news/7991602/ipsos-poll-election-liberals-tories-june/
Yuuuge Liberal majority coming. Bigly, terrific, tremendous. Yuuuuuge!
So when the media and polls don’t print what you like you throw a tantrum.
But they are nothing but truth when they agree with you. ��
So, I don't want to be annoying again, and as much as these polls look reasonable, the fact that on the internet comments the liberals are outnumbered 3-1 by cons it seems makes me a bit skeptical about the accuracy of these polls...so idk ...🤔
Hi Jackie...Thanks for the Nanos numbers and yes, the Ipsos poll is just the latest sign that O'Toole and his Bigot Party are going down in flames. I feel like you do, but I can't celebrate too loudly lest somebody believe I am celebrating Canada Day. Yikes. I will have to wait to celebrate that one until the day after the election and the Cons have been squashed like bugs...
Hi Pierre....It's a pleasant thought, a really Canadian parliament without the filthy Cons who have done so much to beat it and degrade our country. As for the progress in the war on fossil fuels, I'll have more to say about that in my next post...
Looks like polls aren't the only indication an election is coming... 🧔 #Manscaping 😂
So what about all the conservative comments on the internet? I mean, it's just really weird that they are so predominant...🤔
(Btw I am not trying to troll, just looking for an explanation)...
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