It's starting to feel a lot like summer in the place where I live, so yesterday I decided to take a short break from the crazy Covid world I've been living in for so long.
I jumped a ferry to Hanlan's Point, for the first time in more than a year. I had a nice little picnic, strung up a hammock, and was happier than I have felt for a long time.
We're winning the war on Covid, I'm getting vaccinated next week, life couldn't be more perfect.
Until I saw this...
And I must say I was shocked, shocked I tell you.
Could the loser Erin O'Toole really be threatening to be our next prime minister?
And what could account for the sudden boost in his fortunes?
When most recent polls had him heading for the ground, and a crash landing.
And the first thing that came to mind was Doug Ford, and this sinister ad.
The ad is absurd, like something out of the darkest days of the Cold War, and is not backed up by any kind of science.
Justin Trudeau failed to close our borders when the pandemic started. He failed to close them when it got worse. Nobody wants a fourth wave.— Ontario PC Party (@OntarioPCParty) May 6, 2021
It's time to act. pic.twitter.com/wY0eRRdlCk
But then a lot of Canadians are poorly educated, many are both racist and xenophobic, and they'll believe anything...
And if more Canadians do come to believe that the Trudeau government is responsible for the pandemic, anything could happen, and the O'Toole Cons could actually win the next election.
But then I took a closer look at the Abacus poll.
And I was somewhat reassured by these regional findings.
For it's obvious that the results are being skewed by huge Con majorities in Alberta and the other backward western provinces.
And that the Liberal advantage in Ontario, Quebec, and the Atlantic provinces is still great enough to get Justin Trudeau very close to a majority.
As this Lean Tossup model also seems to suggest.
As does this latest Ipsos poll...
Which no doubt had many Cons screaming with disappointment.
And had the Con friendly talk show host Charles Adler musing philosophically.
For if it isn't clear now, it soon will be...O'Toole's rusty tub may rise and fall with the wind and the tides, but I choose to believe it's going nowhere.
While I on the other hand will soon be able to put my boat in the water.
And as I prepare for the election that will determine Canada's fate, and my future in this country.
You will know where to find me....