Sunday, April 02, 2017

Donald Trump and the Coming War With China

I'm sure we all remember the horrified look on Angela Merkel's face, when she came face to face with the madness of Donald Trump, two weeks ago.

Or the rude way he refused to shake her hand.

And that's before we found out that Trump reportedly handed Merkel a fake bill for more than $300 billion. 

Well, get ready for something even worse.

For this week Trump will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

His preview of the meeting isn't exactly encouraging.

For that kind of talk could easily trigger a trade war. 

Or even worse, as the well known security analyst Graham Allison warns, it could lead to a catastrophic military confrontation. 

It may not be apparent when President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping meet beneath the towering palms and crystal chandeliers at Mar-a-Lago this coming week, but the nations they lead are on a collision course for war.

An irresistibly rising China is challenging the United States’ accustomed dominance. Consider that the U.S. share of global economic output fell from 22 percent in 1980 to 16 percent today, while China’s grew from 2 percent to 18 percent over the same period. Historians know that when a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power, alarms should sound: extreme danger ahead.

For the past does not favour the future. 

A major nation’s rise has disrupted the position of a dominant state 16 times over the past 500 years. In 12 of those 16 cases, the outcome was war.

And if a trade war doesn't lead to a major confrontation, there's always Taiwan...

No Chinese national security official I have ever met, and no U.S. official who has examined the situation, doubts that China would choose war over losing territory it considers vital to its national interest.

Where a Chinese blockade could easily spin out of control.

If the United States came to Taiwan’s assistance and provided Navy escorts for the lifeline of ships supplying the island, China could try to sink one or more. And to prevent China from suppressing Taiwan, the United States would have to conduct massive, repeated attacks on missile bases on the Chinese mainland, killing thousands of Chinese.

It’s hard to believe that China would not respond to such attacks with equivalent strikes on U.S. air bases in Guam and Japan, as well as carriers. From there to bombs exploding on U.S. soil is not a very long hop, skip or jump.

And we too could end up as collateral damage...

You know, maybe China and the United States would have been on a collision course no matter who had been elected president.

If it wasn't trade that lit the fuse, it might have been North Korea.

The Pentagon has reportedly prepared various military options to slow North Korea’s missile program. Although some might hope that fallout from a surgical strike would be limited, a U.S. attack could provoke retaliation that triggers a second Korean War or the collapse of the Kim regime. Either could lead to war between the United States and China.

But with an ignorant and belligerent clown like Trump running wild, who can predict what might happen?

But one thing is for sure:

Either the Americans find some way to take down or neuter that monster.

Or his madness could kill us all...


  1. Anonymous10:12 AM

    Putin has baited D_T to do his softening of China. Sad.

    1. hi anon...I'm not sure that Putin is responsible for Trump's belligerent approach to China, since the Russians and the Chinese have been holding joint exercises. But you could be right, Putin is capable of betraying anyone, and Trump is as dumb as a spoon...

  2. Anonymous11:13 AM

    While I agree with you that the situation is rife with danger, I don't think we should worry anymore at this point. The Chinese know that trump is a paper tiger when it comes to China, he talks loudly but carries an itty bitty stick. Expect a meek little school boy when Xi comes rolling in. My biggest worry is a terrorist attack happens in America and trump nukes the middle east. Don't worry about China for now, Xi is a terrible dictator but he is far more rational than dump, I also doubt he has a grudge against humanity. He will tell both nut jobs to reign it in and shut the fuck up.
    It's sad I trust fucking Xi Jinping more than the President of the USA, but here we are.

    1. It's sad that YOU- nobody- don't trust the president?

    2. hi anon... I too trust Xi Jinping more than I trust Trump. Although that's not saying much. But China is going through a bit of a nationalist revival, Xi faces an important party congress, and he can't be seen to show any weakness. So I am worried that Trump could act like the proverbial bull in a china shop. Although I do agree with you, the chances of Trump attacking Iran are also frighteningly real...

    3. hi Ryan...I don't know how anyone can trust Trump after the way he lies all the time. I mean all leaders lie from time to time, but with him it seems compulsive...

  3. Dr. Allison's remarks are a timely warning of the risks Trump poses to world peace. Some compare the path to war to the events preceding WWI. None of the belligerents wanted war nor sought it. They backed into it. I often hear that there's too much trade between China and the US for either to think of war. Prior to WWI, the major parties had deeply integrated trade with each other, particularly Germany and Russia. That stopped nothing.

    Westerners have a shallow understanding of China or Chinese nationalism. People react with a blank stare if you mention the "century of humiliation." It's a term the Chinese, especially the military, use to describe the century in which China was attacked and suppressed by European nations, particularly Britain, and by the United States. That was the era of Britain's opium wars and the taking of Hong Kong.

    Three centuries ago, before the West got involved in controlling their affairs, China and India had the world's largest and second largest economies. We saw to it that didn't continue.

    American officers who have liaised with Chinese counterparts report that resentment of this century of humiliation is deeply embedded in China's senior ranks with some looking for revenge.

    Then there are provocations such as the "Operation Chimichanga" exercise, a dress rehearsal for a stealth first strike on China. You can Google it for the details. Hardly a confidence booster in the context of two nuclear powers in a transitional economic rivalry.

    1. You're right- there is too much trade for China and the US to go to war, even if Trump takes out North Korea. This area is just idiots(liberals) rambling outlandish b.s. because they dislike who the president is. Who are they to speak like they have a better grasp than him lol!?

    2. Ryan, a bit of advice. Strive for coherence. The rewards are endless.

    3. hi Mound...I agree with you, people in the West need to understand more about China's deep sense of humiliation at the way its people were treated in the past. Do you remember the movie 55 Days At Peking? It takes place during the so-called Boxer Uprising, and while Charlton Heston and the occupying powers are
      portrayed as heroes, the Chinese rebels who want to expel them are portrayed as sinister villains. China is now flexing its muscles, and Trump and his blowhards need to step lightly....

  4. What DOES Putin have on The Donald?

    1. hi David....I like to think its some appalling video, but my guess is that it's something financial. Trump has been playing in the oligarch sandbox for years, and who knows what shady business he might have engaged in...


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  8. Anonymous11:06 PM

    Essentially wee Donnie wants to abandon the American vision of global empire for one of a golden feudal fortress complete with high walls, entry moats and an arsenal that will instill fear even in the most vile of villains. A great plan but a rocky road for the receding empire as well as those on the receiving end of the broken ties.
    China is in an excellent position to benefit from the transition as long as they can put enough shiny trinkets on the negotiating table and avoid being drawn into a situation where backing down would be perceived as unacceptably weak.Time is on their side as America languishes in La La Land somewhere between empire and fortress. That is if China can resolve the North Korean problem without loosing face. The "fat boy" has openly threatened to nuke Trump's golden vision which will not end well unless the adults in the room can figure out how to neutralize him without loosing face. The rest is easy, just an incremental strategy, patience and time. Trump has none.

    1. e.a.f.3:55 AM

      the "fat boy" with the mental health issues is of particular use to China. He keeps them separate from S. Korea and they will keep him in office. If he were to no longer be in his position, hundreds of thousands of North Koreans might move across the border to China which has much better living standards. china is not interested in having a few hundred thousand refugees in the mix.

      China isn't keen on Japan, thus any "assaults" by N. Korea on Japan aren't going to be of interest to them. Of course it may cause Japan to re militarize. It might improve their economy also.

      Trump is out of league meeting with Xi but I'm sure the President of China will get through it all. lets not forget China did approve Trump's corporation's trade mark requests which they had denied for several decades, thus ensuring Trump will make hundreds of millions if not billions in China. Trump always being about his personal corporations will most likely not discuss trade or much else, just ensuring an profitable return for this family's corporations.

    2. hi RT... I agree with your general analysis, but what I fear is that Trump will try to bluster and bully the Chinese in order to soften them up and make a "deal" more possible. It is his modus operandi, but what might work in the business world won't work in the real world, and in the case of China could lead to absolute disaster...

  9. e.a.f.3:48 AM

    Trump goes on and on regarding China yet when a Chinese government corporation, ANT wants to buy an American money transfer corporation there may not even be enough staff to really investigate the ramifications of such a buy out. Politico has all the details. Some of the concerns raised is the communist Chinese government's ability to access the records, financial details of Americans including military personnel.

    Americans talk a lot but they don't understand their own sovereignty and how to protect it. China is the second largest holder of American government debt. All Xi has to do is simile nicely and remind Trump of that.

    As to war, China isn't interested in it now. They have work to do and war is not good for their economy. China also has the other half of their country's population, those who have not benefited from the advances in their economy. If war were to begin with the U.S.A. could the communist Chinese government be sure their own people would not rise up in revolt. Hey it would be a good time.

    China will most likely let North Korea cause problems for the U.S.A. China also may not be interested in re awaking the military in Japan. They know what Japan is capable of and might just return to its former military position if pressed.

    The meeting with Xi will be entertainment for China and also a drudgery, having to deal with the baffon of the west. Once again Trump will be totally out of his league. However, this time the President of China won't be as polite as the Chancellor of Germany and Trump may have his first exposure to some real authentic criticisms. This could be very funny.

  10. hi e.a.f...I don't think the Chinese want war, but they are a rising power, they can't be seen to back down on the One China issue, or those islands they are building in the South China Sea.
    And if Trump threatens to get U.S. corporations to stop making things like i-phones in China, it could well be seen as an act of war. If we're going to get through this one everyone needs to keep a cool head....

  11. e.a.f.6:02 PM

    China will simply buy Trump off. he now has his trade marks in China and will almost 2 billion people living there the money making will begin and Trump will no longer speak about China. end of story. china won't go to war as in a real war, there may be a few muscles flexed, a few missles sent, a few ships boarded, but they don't want to wake up Japan and they don't want a war. Its a waste of money and will set their economy back. there are other ways to silence Trump. Once Trump is silenced, bought off, the news cycle will move on and if you want to read or learn anything about what is going on in the China seas, etc. you'll have to check with Japan and their news people.

    China may have been humiliated over the past 200 years by foreign powers but they also know the toll it took on their country. they will be careful