For most of his political career Justin Trudeau's strongest supporters were young Canadians.
While most older Canadians voted for the Cons.
But not any longer.
Now most seniors are preparing to support Trudeau.
And if these two polls are correct those seniors could help blow the Cons out of the water.
For as the pollster Philippe J. Fournier explains, the support of older Canadians tends to count more than others.
In the 2019 federal general election, 67 per cent of eligible voters cast their ballot in Canada. Breaking the election turnout by age group, we notice that, once again, older voters came out in much larger numbers than younger voters. For instance: 73 per cent of voters aged 55 to 64 years old and 79 per cent of voters aged 65 to 74 years old cast a ballot in that election, compared to only 57 per cent of voters aged 18 to 34 according to Elections Canada‘s data.
And that can make a big big difference.
Had these younger voters cast ballots in similar proportions to their elders in 2019, a little over 400,000 additional ballots would have been cast from coast to coast—roughly as many ballots cast in all of New Brunswick in 2019. Applying the same formula to the 25 to 34 year old demographic, about 900,000 more ballots would have been cast, almost as many as all of Manitoba and Saskatchewan combined, more than enough ballots to swing election one way or another.
So why are so many seniors now preparing to vote for Justin Trudeau's Liberals?
Answer: probably because so many seniors have been vaccinated.
As of this writing, over 79 per cent of Canadians aged 70 to 79 years old and 87 per cent Canadians over 80 years old have received at least first dose of the vaccine according to the Public Health agency of Canada. After a slow start to its vaccine rollout in February and March, Canada now has one the fastest vaccination rate in the world, and trails only the United Kingdom and the United States among G7 countries
And as even more seniors get vaccinated over the next few months, the polltracker should become even more favourable.
The Liberals are starting to move ahead more definitively in the polls. They now enjoy a national lead of seven points over the Conservatives and are inching more comfortably into majority territory. The Conservatives have been stuck around their floor of 30 per cent for a few months. The New Democrats are running third and would likely win about as many seats as they currently hold if an election were held today, while the Bloc Québécois has taken a step backwards in support.
Which should make the ugly Cons even more desperate than they are now.The dirty dirties, Canada's Republicans, who can't stop trying to smear decent people, or trying to turn something beautiful into something dirty."Prime Minister Justin Trudeau offers to hold his wife Sophie’s hand while she gets the AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine. Sophie waves him off and Prime Minister sighs." - CP24, April 23, 2021 😬😬😬 pic.twitter.com/uMDLEcRauO
— Canada Proud (@WeAreCanProud) April 23, 2021
Just like their filthy leader...
It's simply disgusting that those who would call themselves Canadians could behave like that.
But I think that Justin and Sophie will have the last laugh.And that the next election should be a great time to party...
I don't think they'll forget just who was responsible for LTC home deaths either, despite Singh's shameful attempts to obfuscate jurisdictional divisions and score empty points on the backs of dead grandparents. Trudeau made every effort to reach out to the provinces and extend help, only to be rudely rebuffed because they were taking care of crooks like Mike Harris. Generationally speaking, the Trudeau name probably carries a lot of weight too; those who reflect fondly upon the father, will see a legacy carried forth with the son.
ReplyDeleteOlder people also tend to be more reserved in what they're willing to tolerate in terms of behavior. I can't imagine there isn't a significant cohort expressing disgust over the trollish antics of O'Toole and his merry band of shitposters, pathological liars, and screaming banshees. The toilet video was really an abysmal low that he may never recover from. He's allowed Whinebox and Pigeon to turn QP into an episode of Jerry Springer. So they see Trudeau doing everything he can to show restraint in the face of their absolute barbarism, and respond accordingly.
Jagmeet meanwhile, may still have his little Tik Tok club of Reddit revolutionaries, but as Fournier points out, memes and hashtags do not vote. And, who knows, maybe there's a set who are none too pleased with Chuckles persecuting poor Margaret. So for all the insults levied at Trudeau that he was a silly kid, immature, just not ready, etc., the actual math is showing that the Liberals really are the party of family values, the only adults in the room.
Getting vaccinated relatively quickly will not be lost on seniors but I think what will seal the deal in the next election is the fact that in a time when unity and cooperation are in dire need the Cons are anything but. Their sole contribution to fighting this deadly pandemic has been to create anxiety, hesitancy and conflict with a healthy dose of blatant lies. All for political gain. Other than a few well placed(and well deserved) zingers towards the bald faced liar, the drunkard MP from Oklahoma and the pouty pecker puss from West Carleton, JT has been a calming influence for all Canadians. He's remained positive and has shown tremendous restraint in the face of continued falsehoods from the opposition and a useless media who conveniently leave out the obvious facts when the Cons are unloading their bowels upon us. Another major reason the Libs will attain a majority is the disastrous failures of the Con premiers. They just weren't ready.
ReplyDeleteAs JT continues to be a leader to us all, the Cons will continue to play their petulant little games that appeal only to petulant little people such as that lame attempt to equate Justin and Sophie to Donald and Melania. Chivalry vs. pussy grabber as it were. Chivalry isn't dead but this deplorable version of the GOP north certainly is. Third or even fourth party status in the next election is what they deserve and it should help to destroy the ugly Harper party once and for all.
JD
Hi Jackie...lIf I remember correctly, Trudeau started off the the support of many seniors, if only because many admired his dad. But the Con scandal machine was able to turn many of them against him. But the pandemic showed them who was a real leader and who was not. The Liberals have also increased benefits for seniors in their latest budget, so the numbers in my post many of which were collected before the budget, could turn out to be even more golden...
ReplyDeleteHi JD....you’re probably right. Vaccination probably played a part in the senior surge, but they have been around long enough to know that O’Toole is the Con man their parents warned them about. And they are not impressed. Trudeau has been a calming influence at a time when many Canadians are deeply worried about the future, and I don’t think they have time for the ugly partisanship of the Cons. O’Toole and his filthy gang think that what turns them on, will do the same to other Canadians, but they couldn’t be more wrong, and they are going to find out the hard way....☠️
ReplyDeleteSimilar to a virus Cons exploit vulnerabilities in order to replicate. Anxiety created by rapid technological change combined with limited adaptability created hot spots for the Con virus to spread. Vote for us and we will shield you in a comfy cocoon from the past that is impervious to all the lawlessness, corruption, big government taxation and globalisation that the Liberals have inflicted upon you.
ReplyDeleteCovid 19 changed that perception. The Cons were unable to shield anyone, potential victims realised that viruses such as the Spanish flu killed millions in the past and it was scientific knowledge, our medical infrastructure and modern technology that were protecting us short term and introducing vaccines to protect us long term. For anyone paying attention the Covid experience confirmed that in a virus dominated world the past was not a safe place and those presenting cocooning in it as a way of the future were lying. The Cons will wail on about how its China's fault, the Liberals were corruptly incompetent and how they would have done hugely better but the reality is the story line about donning the magical protective Con cloak from the past is broken and those that hitched their wagon to it are going nowhere.
RT
Simon, I just popped back in to say I'm utterly sickened by the Cons and Dippers' latest shenanigans. Their antics on the Vance issue are utterly disgusting. Even a victims' group begged them to stop using their cause for partisan dunking. They ignored that group to call for a public inquiry and now they want to bring that same guy in to talk about WeGhazi. Oh, give me a break. This story is so fucking dead.
ReplyDeletehttps://nationalpost.com/news/politics/conservatives-to-push-for-former-morneau-chief-of-staffs-testimony-on-we-charity-affair
Now the cynic in me, vaguely familiar with the spectre of past LPC knife fights involving exiled finance ministers and minority governments, wonders if there isn't some lingering tension between Morneau's holdovers and Katie Telford. I could be wrong, but it's possible that this guy Marques has been picked out of nowhere to be an intentional (or unintentional) troll.
All I can see from here is, goddamn it, the Dipshits are determined to repeat history by helping the Cons manufacture fake scandals in hopes of killing childcare again. They have really lost sight of humanity in their perverse quest to own the Libs. There's a pandemic going on, and they don't care. They never did. They have so much blood on their hands it's appalling. There's a special place in hell for all of them, Jagmeet included, and I don't say that lightly at all. A pox on all their houses. They absolutely fucking suck.
Sorry to bother you again, but the polls are definitely tightening again... also, the liberals don't seem to be able to keep themselves from controversy... like I said I am progressive, so I think that the liberals should do some electoral reform like they promised in 2015...🤔
ReplyDeleteHi RT....There is no doubt that O’Toole and his grubby gang are trying to provoke as much anxiety as possible with their s attacks on the vaccination program, but whether that will work or not remains to be seen. For it is combined with periodic reassurance that looks to me like something out of a sinister psychological exercise, or brainwashing program. I have never seen anything like it, but unfortunately our grubby media is either too dumb or too bought to see it let alone denounce it.As I told Jackie, I believe that only an election campaign will force people to confront what is happening...
ReplyDeleteHi Jackie....Maybe I’m wrong but I don’t see the Vance story going very far, especially since O’Toole and the FuhrerCon Harper were involved in his appointment. And now that Louise Arbour will be preparing a report, which should take about a year. But I agree with you that Singh and the NDP have lost the plot. Singh is clearly fudging jurisdictional matters, and acting like a wouldbe king rather than an MP. We’ll have to take him down a peg or two and sooner rather than later, because he is getting a share of the youth vote that he does not deserve...
ReplyDeleteHi Jsb....For the last time, polls can vary slightly but what is important is the trend, and there is no chance that O’Toole and Singh can win the election. As for electoral reform, only a handful of NDP types, and other kooks care about electoral reform, especially not during a pandemic. Trudeau was willing to go down that road until the NDP sided with the Cons and demanded a referendum. It would have failed miserably and doomed any talk of electoral reform for at least a generation. So you can say that Trudeau kept the idea of electoral reform alive in the face of the idiots in the NDP. They really are too dumb to govern, and are little more than Con stooges...
ReplyDeleteJSB, Simon is right, don't hyperfocus on individual polls but the broader picture. Leger hasn't measured any change in months whereas the others have at least made some movement here and there, and Bogus Reid is a push poll panel that's known for oversampling cons. As for "controversy," neither Vance nor WE will be the ballot box question in September as I pointed out in my own write-up on the Vance hit job against Trudeau. One word, pandemic. Two words: Pandemic, pandemic. I think you can see where this is going. Pandemic, pandemic, pandemic.
ReplyDeleteYou might see it like this, but the average voter might not...so I am not sure what the next election will be about (also why do you say it's gonna be in September?), But if the liberals are portrayed as being full of scandals etc., then that won't be good for them..
DeleteThis is how the tool treats his friends, imagine what he will do to you if given the chance.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.thepeterboroughexaminer.com/ts/politics/federal/2021/04/30/conservatives-in-milton-furious-after-lisa-raitt-booted-from-riding-association.html
(sigh)
ReplyDeleteJSB, the Liberals were portrayed as being full of scandals in 2019 and they still won. Quite literally the only thing that kept them out of majority was a resurgent Bloc. Now that Blanchet is a known quantity (with his own peccadilloes) the Liberals can figure him out better. The NDP are toast in la belle province and not just because of Singh's turban. They have no regard for jurisdiction and they've come out against a number of bills that were popular in Quebec, including MAiD and now they're getting cold feet on the cultural CanCon bill C-10 after supporting it previously. O'Toole, meanwhile, can't even hang onto his own base, and he's not winning any converts either. You know you suck when you manage to shit the bed worse than Weak Andy Scheer.
I say September election because that's when most Canadians will be immunized, and because that's what was being indicated (not confirmed, of course, but strongly indicated) by party insiders talking to the French language press recently. Put it this way: I'll be surprised if it isn't in September. Maybe October the latest, two years exactly.
https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=fr&tl=en&u=https://lactualite.com/politique/pas-delections-federales-ce-printemps-rendez-vous-cet-ete/
Might there be people who make this issue the forefront? Sure, but all indications point to the pandemic being the biggest concern rather than "scandals". Furthermore, Trudeau will get to "campaign against" Ford again. The provincial brand has tarnished the federal one yet again in the places where O'Toole needs seats.
I expect a possible reactive hit to the numbers next week from the whole military issue, but not longstanding or sustained damage. Nobody actually believes the Cons care about women, except brainwashed Stepford/Gilead Cons themselves. The NDP pilfered from their own women's association to cook the books on their campaign deficit, and the Liberals will be sure to remind everyone it was their fault why Harper killed childcare in 2006. The Greens are mired in a bigotry row against a Black, Jewish woman. Who's left? Trudeau is not perfect (no one is), but he is what he was last time: the best possible considering the circumstances. And considering the circumstances, he's done pretty well. Wait and see if Carney runs too. Controversy or no controversy, voters are going to let Skippy balance the books? Hell no.
But I don't think Sajjan will run again. He might not be shuffled because that would just keep the CAF story going (I doubt Telford will testify either, even if she's called to do so), but he probably won't be much longer in politics either. Which is sad, because it was another land mine of Harper's that he had the misfortune of stepping on. Except that if O'Toole and then Kenney get turfed shortly afterward, it'll mean that everyone involved with this situation ended up being shown the door.
Just hang on until the fall.
Hi Jackie....It’s grotesque to see how the Cons having failed to damage the Liberals over the vaccine issue, are now going back to their scandal mucking ways. They truly are the scum of the earth. In my opinion they will only damage themselves, because I doubt that scandalmongering during a pandemic will impress many Canadians. And as you point out , the misogynistic Cons are hardly in a position to pose as the champions of women. Hopefully everything will shake out by the fall, just in time for the election...l
ReplyDelete