As you may know, I have come to believe that Jagmeet Singh is concealing his inner Con.
The way he smears Justin Trudeau, the way he lies like a thief, his appalling lack of knowledge about how our country works, make him more of a Con than a progressive in my book.
And this only confirms my worst fears.
Six months ago he claimed he would not support a government led by Erin O'Toole.
“Absolutely rule that out — period,” Singh said, when asked about the prospect of supporting a Conservative minority during a discussion with the Star’s editorial board on Thursday.
Now it seems he's ready to jump into bed with Captain Outhouse.
Singh, when asked Wednesday here, did not — as he did in 2019 — rule out working with the Conservative leader. He now sounds as if he is keeping all his options open should he be leading a minority government or working with one as a supporting partner.
“We’ll look at that when it happens and make decisions that are in the best interest of Canadians,” Singh said Wednesday.
Can you believe that? The leader who is always accusing others of having no principles turns out to have no principles himself.
And doesn't seem to understand that the Cons are misogynists and homophobes.
Of course I'm not really surprised. Singh is about as dumb as they come. But likes to think he's smarter than everyone.Really? Does @theJagmeetSingh think @erinotoole is “in line” with Canadians on women’s and LGBTQ2 rights?
— LPC Press Box (@LPCPressBox) August 19, 2021
O’Toole’s platform commits to letting doctors deny a woman’s right to choose. pic.twitter.com/GOrjYwopY9
I'm not on the ground obviously, but my gut says the Liberals don't have a very good advertising game this time around, and I don't know why. They should be shouting this article from the rooftops. Instead all I've seen are a few tweets from Liberal candidates and staffers.
ReplyDeleteDid they run out of air? Or are they keeping their powder dry to amplify the social media messaging towards the last weeks of the campaign? I think that's a dumb strategy because now they're playing catch-up from behind with only three weeks left. To the best of my knowledge, they have nothing on traditional radio and TV. The cons aren't gaining per se; the Dippers are splitting the vote.
Time for another reminder of Mal Jack's devil's bargain:
https://thewalrus.ca/fake-left-go-right/
Jag Layton is another craven, power-hungry narcissist who cares not a whit about Canadians because he's only about himself and "revenge" for 2015. That and pandering to the mouth-foaming Dipshit base who wants to "own the Libs" and humiliate Trudeau. Everything is about Trudeau, Trudeau, Trudeau, nothing about policy. And punishing him for the electoral reform grudge that they won't let go of.
I feel disgusted and sick seeing the way this is going. I keep saying it over and over. It's Bernie and the purity cult all over again sabotaging the only viable candidate out of personal animus and an ego trip, and pretending like it's no big deal. Real people will suffer for what the NDP plans to do yet again to Canada.
Jagmeet is a hypocrite, example #16,777,216.
ReplyDeletehttps://readpassage.com/jagmeet-singhs-support-for-provincial-ndp-betrays-his-promise/
He didn't say boo about Horgan's role in the railway protests either but made it all Trudeau's fault. (The RCMP are provincially contracted to be the police force for B.C.) Piggybacked on JWR too. The Grits have made protection of old growth forests a plank in their campaign, and Trudeau told the media to go ask Horgan and Singh why they won't do anything about it. Singh got mad over being called out for his equivocating, and started bitching about TMX again. Thus throwing Rachel underneath the bus like the brocialist he is.
The provincial divide needs to be exposed more as to why Singh is a massive pathological liar who "says pretty words and does nothing."
The goal of the NDP is to be the kingmaker to a minority government and they will not care which of the two big parties form the government.
ReplyDeleteSo the answer to your question is yes.
Jackie, it has only been three days since Erin O'Toole admitted to more privatization of Canada's health care system. That is one big stick with which to beat the Conservatives with but they can to develop a plan for a sustained beating not just a one and done TV ad. It will need to be a sustained effort on many fronts.
https://scrimshawunscripted.substack.com/p/canada-reset-ontario-polls-and-can
ReplyDeleteWith Simon's permission, of course.
This is a really cogent read, and basically...everyone is still at the cottage. If polls show CPC up by 5 in Ontario on September 17-20, I'll admit I was wrong as well and bear down for another long anti-CPC period.
But I don't see a path to 170. I think a lot of QC will go to LPC, some seats in ON will go NDP/CPC but we should have at 120++ LPC by 9:30 P.M. If we're lucky, the Maritimes will just seal the deal for us as usual.
Eternally hopeful...
https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/federal-election-2021/liberals-attacks-on-conservatives-health-care-stance-might-be-working-nanos-1.5560638
ReplyDeleteMany would feel more comfortable if the election was not FPTP, which I remember Trudeau promising us that 2015 would be the last time with FPTP. Minority is the best scenario with such a phony system that allows 39% “majorities”.
ReplyDeleteAnon 1:58, that was days ago and the Cons have jumped up since. Nanos was trying to inject his usual bad-take punditry into what ended up as statistical noise.
ReplyDeletePierre, I really don't understand Scrimshaw's argument and I've read the piece multiple times. Do Cons not go to cottages, therefore they're being oversampled in summertime polling?
The Liberals are insisting upon the "people won't really tune in until Labour Day" argument too. Is that really true or are they bluffing a brave face? If their arguments at the door were sticking, you'd think it would show up in polls?
THEY NEED MORE ADS! They need to tout their achievements thus far and the policies they'll build on, because the media sure won't give them a fair shake!
Also Anon, the Nanos from today (8/27) has the Cons at 34 and rising, with Liberals at 33 and stagnant. Whatever Trudeau and team are doing on the ground, it doesn't seem to be sticking in the polls. They need to go full Blitz on the air war, and I'm worried that the whole "wait for Labour Day" idea might be too late.
ReplyDeleteThey need to tout their accomplishments LOUD and use Singh's comments to tie him to O'Toole. The media is not their friend.
If Liberals actually cared about the possibility of the Tories forming government maybe they shouldn't have made a needless power grab? Sorry the usual blackmail to get NDP/Green voters to hold their nose to vote NDP isn't going to work this time, it just comes off as self serving and dishonest as it is? The only one to blame for this is the one who called an election that no one wanted, Justin Trudeau.
ReplyDeleteAs an NDP frequent member and an NDP voter, I'm fine with Jagmeet making deals with O'Toole, he's more trust worthy then Trudeau, but almost anyone is.
And no the Tories aren't misogynistic, like most parties they are super prowomen.
I call bullshit, Gyor. The battle of the sexes is real. If only women were allowed to vote, Cons would never win an election again.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/federal-election-2021/conservatives-surging-with-male-voters-nanos-data-1.5563675
Hopefully Trudeau is able to shake loose some of the women currently parking their votes with NDP, after Jagmeet gave an opening to propping up the anti-choice party that wants to kill affordable childcare.
O'Toole is prochoice and using abortion as a weapon when no leader is in favor of ending it is misleading people. It comes off desperate. Again if Trudeau cared he wouldn't have called a power grabbing election, yet he did. Karma is coming for him.
DeleteI usually ignore what Ygor has to say but not this time. Saying the Cons are not misogynistic with the added brain fart that they're super prowomen has to be the dumbest and/or most misogynistic thing I've ever read. So what is it? A few bricks short of a full load? Having read some of your past comments I'd say it's quite plausible. A woman hater? Can't say I recall any indications of that cowardly trait. Or is it simply that your head is perpetually stuck up your ass? Bingo!!!!
ReplyDeleteJD
So clearly your a fan 🤪🤣.
DeleteBut no I stand by what I said. I'm prochoice, but I'm familiar enough with those that aren't to know that they view prochoice folks as the misogynistists for killing what THEY feel is female babies. I don't see it that way, but I'm capable of trying to see issues from someone else's point of view, which gives me a broader perspective.
@Gyor
ReplyDeleteYour rhetoric identifies you as a CPC plant. I do not believe you to be NDP. Tories have voted against a woman's right to choose, pay equity, $10 daycare, contraception being available in schools, it goes on and on. Spare us please.
@Jackie_Blue
Scrimshaw's point was that the only people being by their phone in that period are the elderly or those unable to travel to secondary residences in the Muskokas. No one is polling in the Muskokas. Thus, as you so aptly elucidated, parts of the CPC base are being overrepresented (small business owners, the elderly, college-level young adults).
Here is the lastest Mainstreet (leans pro-Con) seat totals. Despite having the CPC at 37% (!) it still has the Liberals up by about 20+ seats, forming another coalition with the government. The "Labor Deay Ears" adage is correct. After people come back to the workplace, they will become more invested with the race. I expect you'll see this reflected in the polls as the race tightens up. By election day I predict the following:
LPC: 33-34% global support
CPC: 35-37% global support
NDP: 16-18% global support
BQ: 6% global support
Greens: 1%
PPC: 4$
Others (Maverick, Independents, etc.) about 1%
Result: Liberal minority government with about 147-153 seats total. NDP will have 30ish seats, buoyed by the youth voters and parts of the Rust Belt. CPC will make big gains in Ontario, completely sweep the prairies and Alberta and parts of BC.
Any other takers in the prediction game? :-)
Ok.
DeleteScenario 1: CPC minority.
Trudeau resigns night of election and Liberals go into leadership campaign. No election for a year to a year and a half while this occurs. If polls support Liberals and their new leader they will attempt to bring down government in summer 2023.
Scenario 2: Liberal Minority.
Justin barely hangs on to power. Avoids throne speech till spring 2022. Claims sudden interest in Afghanistan and COVID for delay. Liberals defeated on throne speech and go on to be crushed in the following election.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteBut isn't that 20+ seat advantage in the Mainstreet poll being held up tenuously by QC? That could still change after the TVA debate. If it does, we're hooped. It did in 2019; then again, Trudeau has decided not to wade in on cultural matters like last time, while Blanchet doesn't seem to have anything new to offer and O'Toole has pissed off Legault by refusing to commit to the childcare funding. Blanchet has been going after him on this so hopefully there are some CPC/Bloc splits that work out favourably for the Liberals.
ReplyDeleteHopefully Ontario comes back home to the red team too, and people realize that it wouldn't have been O'Toole who got Doug to finally cave on vax passports. Doug wants Justin to win too, as the "Ontario balance" would boost his reelection chances.
NDP need to switch strategically and not split the vote. Hopefully they realize that Jagmeet is a backstabber. NDP = No Damn Principles.
The pundits keep ignoring Trudeau and fluffing the others because they don't like JT and want Tool to win. But they're FOS when they claim Trudeau has been running a negative campaign. It's Tool and Jaggy who are doing that. Angus was hounding Margaret again on Twitter which goes to show how much rancid misogyny is embedded in the NDP. Meanwhile, Trudeau did this in a crowd even as he was chased down by anti-vax psychopaths calling him the seven dirty words and threatening his life. Sadly, it doesn't move the polls because media won't report it. Well, RCI did, but he'd probably lose votes in QC for hugging a Muslim. 🤦♀️
https://twitter.com/univrsle/status/1431380947178565635
Pierre D...
ReplyDeleteIf the Conservatives win 35 to 37% of the vote they win the election.
The Liberals are more likely to win 37% than the Conservatives. The Conservatives will have accomplished something if they can win 33% of the vote. I agree with your estimate for the NDP but they will not win more than 25 seats with that level of support. Indeed, if they actually win only 16% they will lose a couple of seats. If the PPC wins 5% of the vote it will be a nightmare for the Conservatives. In 2019 they won around 20 seats in Ontario by less than 5%, and the Liberals came in second in most of them. If the PPC splits the Conservative vote in those ridings they would fall to the Liberals. The same applies for the Maverick Party. They will have low national numbers but their support is all concentrated in the Prairie. They could also be a nightmare for the Conservatives in Calgary and Edmonton. As usual the Bloc is a wild card. If they stay at their current levels the Liberals win big in Quebec. If they are resurrected, like they were last time, the Liberals hang on to their current seats but only have limited gains in Quebec if any. The Greens are a none issue. Ms. May will take the leadership reins once again after the election.
So my guess is there are two possibilities:
1) The Liberals win a minority government similar to 2019.
2) They win a majority and a very convincing one at that.
We will know for certain on a little over three weeks but I believe the Liberals are closer to achieving their goal of a majority government than the top-line numbers of the public polls are indicating.
We will see. We could both be proven to be out to lunch. :)
Hey Simon, I realized I should not be naming specific pollsters when I write my comments. My comment was a general observation and it was unfair to single out one pollster. I could not edit the comment so I deleted it and the edited version is below.
ReplyDeleteThe day before the official election call I wrote a post on my blog where I attempted to predict how the election would unfold. One of my predictions was the media would fluff Erin O'Toole's garfield and the pollsters would provide them with the "data" to help them do it. Sure enough, on the second day of the campaign the pollsters came out with polls showing the election was close, even though they showed the Liberals ahead of the Conservatives by 9-12 points just one week before.
If I was able to figure this out, as an amateur, then the pros running the Liberal campaign should have been able to figure it out too.
The media is not on the Liberals' side and the Liberals know it. They know that they will not get a fair shake out of them which is why for the past two elections they have gone over their heads and spoken directly to Canadians. However, in order to do that they needed to take the time to set up the process, which meant spending the first two weeks of the campaign announcing their intentions. They have done that and now in the final three weeks they will hammer that message home with directed advertizing and much more aggressive stump speeches.
Unfortunately, that means the Liberals had to endure the last two weeks and their only shot at coming through it was to make certain the local campaigns were working on the ground and the national campaign had to keep its cool. I cannot speak to the local campaigns but the national campaign did what it had to do. It never let itself get rattled.
Now we are on the cusp of the second part of the campaign and according to the very same polls that the media has been using the Liberals are still closer to their objective than the Conservatives are to theirs.
The Conservatives have conveniently taken sides on key issues that are at odds with majority opinion in this country. From vaccine mandates/passports, through abortion, climate change and child care to protecting Canada's health care system the Conservatives have given the Liberals enough material to really contrast what the two parties would do as a government.
The media will still be hostile but that is not new for the Liberals. They have overcome them twice. If, as I suspect, this is not a change election the next three weeks should be much different from the last two weeks.
I think we'll figure out why the polls are effed up if we figure out who is funding the astroturf anti-vax terrorism campaign. The Cons gin up these friendly sausage makers outside the writ period, then wash their hands and go "not me" during the election and pretend to be normal. The media won't push because to do so would be "partisan".
ReplyDeleteNotice how quickly the CPC_HQ official account issued a boilerplate statement saying this is bad. They want to make themselves look civilized. They didn't say boo when the heavily armed Oswald wannabe plowed his truck into Rideau Cottage. Neither did the NDP. Liberal signs are being vandalized and torn down all over the country. Not Cons and not NDP. I mentioned pincer warfare and this is it.
How curious that no one is protesting Singh events. O'Toole is hiding in his 1970s TV studio while the BoJo blokes do their psy-ops. Only Trudeau is brave enough to face the public. The result is torqued video that plays on the news suggesting a massive uprising against the incumbent. But no context is given for why they are angry.
Personally I want to know how the hell the Dippers went from flat broke to an overflowing war chest. What price Singh's soul to suck up to O'Toole and his anti-vax brigade while continually bashing JT?
According to the polls the Liberals are in trouble. Forget about their much sought after majority they are actually in danger of losing.
ReplyDeleteSo with this in mind, what are the plans for the PM tomorrow on the campaign trail? Is he going to attend three different events to rev up his followers?
Nope. He is taking the day off. I keep saying that if you really want to know what is happening on the campaign look at what the party leaders are doing. If he is taking the day off things are not nearly as dire as the public polls would have you believe.
I don't think I can keep being cautiously optimistic anymore Ottlib. What I think is that he's going back home to be with his family tonight to prepare them for an inevitable disappointment in three weeks. But also to hug them and let them know that daddy is safe.
ReplyDeleteI really don't understand why this campaign has hinged upon the wonky samples of just two nightly telephone pollsters. I find it absolutely ridiculous, in fact. But I also think it's pretty clear after what happened tonight that this is no longer "Trudeau's Canada" anymore. The media actually blamed him for inciting the mob that went after him. They're even blaming him for Afghanistan. The narrative is set and the fix is in. Hillary's emails and Benghazi all over again.
I don't want Canada to suffer under a CPC-GOP government. Sadly, he finally got his groove back tonight but I think it was too late.
It was predictable the new freshly lipsticked Mr nice guy Tool would shower attention getting bright shiny trinkets at the front of the big tent and hide the dinosaurs and buzzards in the back with the Post media megaphone blaring the Liberal tent is on fire 24/7.
ReplyDeleteThat is the easy part. The question is how do the Liberal respond. Direct attack is not an option as the winner of a mud fight is usually a clean rested opportunist circling the perimeter... enter Jagmeet. So far that has not happened as Jagmeet has been drawn into the pit and is slightly soiled. Momentum is building they smell blood. Whats the next move? That depends, either the Liberals are the hubris party of Canada and completely missed the obvious or they are skilled in the intellectual equivalent of a martial art where the opponents momentum and bravado is used against them. Sometimes subtly and drawn out sometimes with a well placed kick. Would love to see a well placed kick but will accept a more subtle drawn out dance where the Tool is left a sweaty blubbering mess that is all of his own making. The Cons are masters at emotional turmoil hopefully the Liberals have become masters at emotional Jujutsu mixed with a few close quarter street moves.
RT
Simon and friends, I don't think it's going to happen. All the polls indicate that voters are likely to stupidly punish Trudeau for having an election at all. It doesn't look like there'll be any backlash to the protests. The election call itself has been defined as the ballot issue. The media set the tone and now they're reaping dividends.
ReplyDeleteIt appears people don't care about the violence, or about any of the other important issues they'd be voting on in the party platforms, all of which the Liberals are on side with their perspectives. It's about anger at Trudeau. As the old saying goes, Canadians don't vote governments in but vote them out. And they're poised to take out their revenge upon Trudeau, condemning Canada in the process.
I'm so heartbroken right now. 💔 😢
It’s too early to worry about the publicly available polls. They’re all bullshit nowadays anyway. A more interesting trend is the disappearance of Conservative Premiers. WTF?! That should be a clear sign of the fear in the federal PCs and the Canadian MSM. No attempt to find out where they are? Something will happen in the next 30 days that will give the Liberals a small majority.
ReplyDeleteUU
BTW -Jackie, please relax. It’s too early to worry like that.
ReplyDeleteUU
I think Gerald Butts said it best:
ReplyDelete“The base rate for Canadian politics is extraordinarily low party allegiance, especially on the progressive side. Most Canadians are practical, not partisan voters. That produces stomach churning moves for partisans within campaigns. This is shaping up to be a wild month”.
Please Canada don't hurt him. Michael Wernick was a prophet.
ReplyDeletehttps://twitter.com/maej43/status/1432009751156645893
As an aside, I have read anecdotally that the Liberal internals might be better than what the public polls are showing. If true, there are speculated reasons behind this that I mentioned on Ottlib's blog the other night.
All I can say is that if Trudeau manages to pull off a surprise victory, I fear these people will go full January 6th on Parliament. They will not go away quietly. You have to keep Trudeau in office but you also have to keep him safe.
Hi Jackie and all the others. I’m sorry I wasn’t able to reply to your comments, but I had to spend the weekend in Montreal, where all I could do was tweet. But I was impressed with all your comments, this blog really does have some great readers. And I won’t be going anywhere now until the election. I hope everyone is fine, and not too bothered by the polls. I’m still confident the debates will give the Liberals the boost they need to give them at least a minority government…
ReplyDelete