For months Erin O'Toole has been accusing Justin Trudeau of planning to call an election.
While Trudeau has always said that leading the fight against the pandemic is challenge enough.
And I have always believed that we won't go to the polls until everyone is vaccinated at some point in September.
But with these numbers looking so good.
And these numbers looking even better...
Now I'm wondering whether we might have a summer election.
For according to EKOS Politics the once frozen political landscape is now moving in favour of the Liberals.
In a new poll, the relative stability of the political landscape appears to have been disrupted by a sharp rise in public belief that the worst of the pandemic is behind us. As vaccine rollout rises dramatically, the fortunes of the Conservative Party, who had staked out a view that the vaccine rollout was going to be calamitously distant in the future, are falling in lockstep.
And O'Toole and his Cons seem to be the big losers.
The numbers are particularly troubling for Mr. O’Toole’s new leadership of the Conservative Party. His main strategic thrusts, to move the party to more moderate centre terrain, to admonish the Liberals for a disastrous vaccine procurement performance and to pursue the working class and union vote, have all been singularly ineffective to date.
All in all, these strategies see Mr. O’Toole fully eight points behind the popular vote than what Mr. Scheer secured in the last election with no evidence that any of his strategic directions are yielding any fruit.
With Justin Trudeau looking like a responsible leader...
While O'Toole has been looking like an idiot or a maniac...
It would appear that under-promising and over-delivering has worked very well for the Liberals and that projecting exaggerated calamity has turned out to be a bad wager for the Conservatives.
And with regional numbers like these, a mid-summer election might be hard to resist.
For they have STRONG MAJORITY written all over them, especially in Quebec where the Bloc seems to be collapsing. Again.
As for me, I'm hoping the Liberals can hold off until September because I think Canadians are going to need a break from just about everything, and won't want an election to ruin their recovery.
And of course I know what I want to do...
And I don't think a delaying the election a few months will affect the final result.
A loser is a loser is a loser...
And a winner is a winner is a winner....
I hope not. Only because of the optics of being labeled opportunistic by our corprate pro Con media and then being used as a hammer to help the Cons.
ReplyDeleteI'd rather they call one when CoVID is truly well good and done.
This is one of the few times where the minority government party is in the driver's seat. If the other parties want to help them out by forcing a non confidence vote then let them. The NDP has no cash or desire for another election so soon.
The Tories are just so fucking inept. They can't expect much help at all from their provincial buddies unlike last time because their ineptitude has pissed a lot of people. Pointing and screaming about Trudeau's failures only ends up blowing up in their provincial pals faces because it reminds everyone about THEIR more horrible bigger deadlier failures.
Hubris, which Justin has in spades......oh Simon if only you knew what was coming. If only.
ReplyDeleteI have no desire for a Summer election at all, I just want to be vaccinated and for lockdowns to end so I can enjoy my Summer.
ReplyDeleteDo an federal election when the preset election is due, not before.
And if the NDP and Greens merged, they'd have more support then the Tories.
I believe JT will do what's in the best interest of Canadians and wait until the pandemic is under control. Now if it were say, Harper, he'd do what's best for him as would any other of their "leaders" past and present. That in itself is not surprising as the Cons have devolved into a despicable bunch of self serving cockroaches scurrying about in the shadows. Only coming out to feed or spread their shit anywhere they can.
ReplyDeleteJD
I dont think there is any rush, give the Cons time to move down into single digits.
ReplyDeleteIt could be nice if it produces the history-repeating 1974 result. I've heard/read as much from the usual "senior government sources" hinting at a writ drop in August to be completed after Labour Day. Whether that ends up being the case is anyone's guess.
ReplyDeleteI agree with JD that the timing will come when PMJT feels it's in the best interest of Canadians. Much depends on Ontario as well; after all, he may or may not have much of a window to "run against Doug Ford." There is also the issue of rational self-interest as regards the six-year MP pensions that don't come up until October, to take into account. I think the best bet is to say that only PMJT and his hairdresser know for sure.
Anon 10:52, that's some pretty cryptic word salad you've got there. The hell you say? You know something we don't? Is O'Toole going to mimic Scheer and drop another bogus bombshell from the Buffalo Chronicle about Justin's sex life? Is Pigeon going to throw some papers with Maury Povich paternity tests, alleging that PMJT fathered three of Brennan's kids and the others were sired by Craig and Marc Kielburger? Is the WE Charity going to host a Canada Day-themed adrenochrome sausage-eating contest sponsored by SNC Lavalin, at the Ping Pong Poutine Pizza? Did Doug's chief of staff get Brian a job as the new Sunshine Girl, leaving Kouvalis and Kory and Kinsella (KKK) jealous and blaming Katie Telford? Is all of this just a simulation that Gerry Butts is running on Hunter Biden's laptop? Where did he put Hillary's Emails? National Inquiring "minds" want to know.
So close, yet so far Jackie Blue.
DeleteI always knew it
ReplyDeleteIs the WE Charity going to host a Canada Day-themed adrenochrome sausage-eating contest sponsored by SNC Lavalin
Hi Dan....I don’t disagree when anything you say. The shabby Con media would label an election call dangerously opportunistic, and as Dale Smith has pointed out a bill to make casting a ballot safer won’t go into effect until September. So it seems to me that delaying a call is really a no brainer. Frank Graves seems to think that the Liberals should strike while the iron is hot, but I think the Liberals can afford to wait nail the worst of the Covid crisis is over. Somehow I don’t think that Erin O’Toole is going to shed his skin like a larva and fly off as a big and beautiful butterfly or whatever....🪲
ReplyDeleteHi anon@10:52 PM....What do you mean by that? Do you have a crystal ball to look into the future? Or are you hallucinating and just think you can see the future? Of course you could be threatening me like quite a few Cons have been doing recently, but if I were you I wouldn’t...
ReplyDeleteHi Gyor....for once we agree. After the winter we have endured, I think most Canadians could do with some healing time in the sun. I enjoy the give and take of politics, but there is a time and a place for everything. As for the Green and NDP numbers, I don’t think the NDP would want to merge with the Greens, because despite their new leader many Greens are actually quite conservative, and even racist. I’m hoping for Bernier’s kooks to become a little more popular because that could really hurt the Cons...
ReplyDeleteHi JD....I agree. As much as I would love an election to silence the ugly Cons and hopefully send Captain Outhouse packing, I’m going to have to patient. The pandemic is still raging, and Justin Trudeau isn’t going to do anything that makes him look cheap or opportunistic. And we both know that our shabby Con media would make it sound like Trudeau was killing Canadians. So maybe we should just give O’Toole and his Cons enough role to hang themselves before we finish them off....
ReplyDeleteHi Steve....Yes, that’s another good reason to hold off. The way O’Toole and his Cons are falling or failing, they should be just about ready to emerge in China by September. And wouldn’t that be ironic? 🤡
ReplyDeleteHi Jackie....I agree, a September election seems to make a lot of sense. As Dale Smith pointed out today, a bill that would make voting safer won’t, thanks to the Cons, come into effect until September. So I don’t think Justin Trudeau will go for an election even if he wants one. As for that cryptic comment from that anonycon, I’ve been getting quite a few of those recently, and I can only attribute that to their state of desperation. They are without hope, and I wouldn’t be surprised if a lot of them give up long before September, and go join the People’s Party or kill themselves, or both. It’s horrible, but try as I might Incan’t feel sorry for them....😉
ReplyDeleteCons finally get called out on their game of chicken during a pandemic. Based on US results they knew Con anti maskers had an advantage with voter turn out during a pandemic but mail in ballots reverses that advantage. It will be interesting when the Cons launch their next 'you enabled Vance's horrific transgressions since we investigated and found him lily white in 2015' star chamber fake scandals and the Liberals say no lets have an election instead. Its high noon and their free publicity inquiry bazooka has morphed into a pea shooter. https://ca.news.yahoo.com/ndp-join-liberals-cut-short-211223375.html
ReplyDeleteRT
Well Simon, from the sound of it, ConAnon guy's cryptic spam and the Jeff tweet from vax day seem to indicate his fellow basement-dwellers aim to go after Trudeau with a fake sex scandal. Because none of the other fake scandals or Q conspiracies like Elbowgate or Elbagate have ousted him before. All they got is the Buffalo BS Chronicle blog, Kinsella's old news fished from the dumpster, and crank podcasters like Dean Blundell who pull fact-devoid fanfic out of their ass.
ReplyDeleteBTW: Michael Geist, that obnoxious ivory-tower narcissist waging a Petersonian campaign to stop bill C10, went on his show recently to complain he's being censored. One of many shows and podcasts he went on to complain he's being censored, because he's being censored so much he's got cameras and microphones stuffed in his fat face. And now he's going to testify at the committee and probably do another media round afterwards, because he's being censored and needs everyone to know how much he's being censored. He'll probably write a book about being censored, and then go promote said book ad nauseam to remind you he's being censored. In case anyone is wondering whose "free speech" the likes of him and Captain Crustacean are sticking up for. It's right-wing nutters like Ezra and Blundell.
All I can say is, ConAnon and his fellow travelers better lawyer up or reconsider IF that's really what they're planning, because libel laws are pretty stringent in Canada and the court costs alone would bankrupt them for the next hundred years. Get some decent policies or GTFO. What's on ConAnon guy's hard drive, I wonder?
Sorry but judging by the latest polls, it will be very hard for the liberals to get a majority...https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/
ReplyDeleteThey are down to only a 3 point lead, and are behind the BQ in Quebec according to Leger...😬🤔
Oh my God JSB, will you stop looking at polls going up and down until at least September? Or zeroing in on individual polls rather than a range of possibilities and an average. For one thing, the phrase "campaigns matter" exists for a reason. For another, when the election actually does come around -- which won't be for awhile yet -- polls have tended to underestimate the Liberal vote. For another, Quebec has the wildest swings en masse and usually doesn't make their decision until e-day itself. And for another, this is what the Polltracker says about the REGIONAL picture, which is more important than the toplines:
ReplyDeleteThe Liberals lead by roughly eight points in Quebec, 12 points in Ontario and 20 points in Atlantic Canada. Alone, these three regions could put them only a dozen seats short of a majority government. British Columbia, where the Liberals hold a narrow lead in a three-way race, could be enough to put them over the top. The Conservatives lead only in Alberta, Saskatchewan and (narrowly) Manitoba. Both the NDP and the Greens have their highest support in B.C., while the Bloc's support in Quebec has been slowly declining over the last year.
And furthermore, that poll had an ELEVEN PERCENT "other" vote in Alberta for the Cons, which could even allow the Liberals to squeak out some seats out West. Leger additionally hasn't moved much since LAST summer while the other polls have at least had variations. But above all else, it's May. Nobody is going to an election right now. Vaccines coming through, Ford shitting the bed, and the likelihood of reaching herd immunity before the U.S. will probably give the Liberals a boost -- in A FEW MONTHS. They also have the best data-driven operation in Canadian politics, which is called the Big Red Machine for a reason. Stop hyperfocusing and hyperventilating. You're going to drive yourself (and everyone else here) nuts!
PS: Simon, I just saw this on Reddit. A user by the name of Memymemyme wrote this on a post about polls. Could this be our ConAnon troll making cryptic "predictions"?
ReplyDeleteWait for June new scandal coming out for Trudeau and Liberals. Also new narratives appearing, it will be racial charged, anti police, and you will see it when you see it.
Used to be a fundraiser for the Liberals, and still have friends in the organization. I no longer do, and I am sorry I ever did. They are the most corrupt group of people I have ever met.
Yeah, this sounds like the astroturf Walk Away campaign attempting to suppress the Democratic vote. These dirty tricksters and liars just won't do the honorable thing and come up with policies worth voting for. Instead they rely on FUD and smear attacks. Who are they working for? Jeff? Nick? Vlad?