It's starting to feel a lot like summer in the place where I live, so yesterday I decided to take a short break from the crazy Covid world I've been living in for so long.
I jumped a ferry to Hanlan's Point, for the first time in more than a year. I had a nice little picnic, strung up a hammock, and was happier than I have felt for a long time.
We're winning the war on Covid, I'm getting vaccinated next week, life couldn't be more perfect.
Until I saw this...
And I must say I was shocked, shocked I tell you.
Could the loser Erin O'Toole really be threatening to be our next prime minister?
And what could account for the sudden boost in his fortunes?
When most recent polls had him heading for the ground, and a crash landing.
And the first thing that came to mind was Doug Ford, and this sinister ad.
The ad is absurd, like something out of the darkest days of the Cold War, and is not backed up by any kind of science.Justin Trudeau failed to close our borders when the pandemic started. He failed to close them when it got worse. Nobody wants a fourth wave.
— Ontario PC Party (@OntarioPCParty) May 6, 2021
It's time to act. pic.twitter.com/wY0eRRdlCk
But then a lot of Canadians are poorly educated, many are both racist and xenophobic, and they'll believe anything...
Caryma Sa'd
And if more Canadians do come to believe that the Trudeau government is responsible for the pandemic, anything could happen, and the O'Toole Cons could actually win the next election.
But then I took a closer look at the Abacus poll.
And I was somewhat reassured by these regional findings.
For it's obvious that the results are being skewed by huge Con majorities in Alberta and the other backward western provinces.
And that the Liberal advantage in Ontario, Quebec, and the Atlantic provinces is still great enough to get Justin Trudeau very close to a majority.
As this Lean Tossup model also seems to suggest.
As does this latest Ipsos poll...
Which no doubt had many Cons screaming with disappointment.
And had the Con friendly talk show host Charles Adler musing philosophically.
For if it isn't clear now, it soon will be...
While I on the other hand will soon be able to put my boat in the water.
And as I prepare for the election that will determine Canada's fate, and my future in this country.
You will know where to find me....
Anything is possible but there is certainly a question of whether it is probable and at this time I would say no.
ReplyDeleteAs for the Abacus poll I mentioned on your last post that I have always found their polls to be wonky. They often show big swings in their estimates that cannot really be explained by changes in public opinion so it must be something in their polling methodology.
What the Reformers did to distort our perception of "conservatism" should never have happened. The coalition of one-issue crazies that resulted remains an abomination, as evidenced by the inability of its current leader to move the party even one step toward a recognition of reality. All they can do is to fall back on recycled lies and new distortions of the truth.
ReplyDeleteI'll grant Justin minorities until another leader or party is able to clear away the contrived distractions of the right by pushing politics out of the "bedrooms of the nation" once and for all, and get on with the job of taking on the free market fundamentalists. I don't think we can expect to find any stars among the kids. They've taken too many of the wrong things for granted because they only know a world where the slugs have been reduced to a powerless ragtag of supplicating individuals. Where's Howard Hampton?
I think that Liberal's drop and Tories rise was caused by bill C-10 aka the anti free speech bill aka the Liberal Party of Canada's political suicide note. The next election was looking like an undeserved cake walk for Trudeau until Bill C-10.
ReplyDeleteI hate Bill C-10 because if it passes it puts me and many others in a horrible dilemma. I prefer to vote NDP, I want universal dentalcare and pharmacare and basic income, but I value free speech over my own survival as a value so I will have no choice, but to vote Conservative something I never thought I would do and something that makes me very upset, but Bill C-10 must die at any cost even to myself. Without speech life isn't worth living.
Interesting.....
DeleteGyor, if the Abacus "drop" was caused by bill C-10, then why did Ipsos of all people show the complete opposite? Why do all the poll trackers still have them in majority territory? Lean Tossup has written in previous analysis columns that they're notoriously wonky with Maritime samples for some reason. Other than that, the only reason for the mirage of "close" toplines, is that the Cons went back to their usual status of racking up useless North Korea margins in lost-cause places where the Liberals are reviled anyway.
ReplyDeleteC-10 has been ridiculously distorted by Con propaganda from the likes of academic blowhards like Michael Geist, looking to follow the Jordan Peterson path of concern-trolling for "free speech" and spreading FUD about things that are never going to happen. Ask yourself how many people went to prison for using the "wrong" pronoun, as Peterson fearmongered about C-16. The answer is zero, which is also the likelihood of Trudeau turning Canada into an Orwellian dictatorship. Peter Menzies was Harper's CRTC guy and a former publisher of the Calgary Herald. You know, the province where Kenney went into a conniption about Netflix promoting a Bigfoot movie? All of the propaganda being spread about this bill is coming from cons and the ivory tower equivalent of Bill Maher.
What C-10 does is to have Google redirect to the .ca domain by default and YouTube put Tragically Hip videos on the front page if it detects you're using a Canadian IP. That's literally it. Oh, and to make them support Canadian artists through the massive hoard of wealth they've been extracting and siphoning into their coffers. Your beloved NDP supports it, the Bloc supports it, the Greens support it, the entire Quebec National Assembly supports it. You know who doesn't? Columnists at the American Postmedia rags, Rupert Murdoch's Wall Street Journal, and a few crank professors who, as Guilbeault said, don't want any regulations at all. They're Ayn Rand worshipers and tin foil paranoiacs on the wrong side of history yet again.
As for O'Toole and the Cons, his own party thinks he sucks; the left of centre doesn't trust his bullshit "pivot," and Ford has incinerated the brand in Ontario. Even Kenney is flailing in Alberta. Alberta! But hey, if you want to throw your vote away go right ahead. I feel vindicated to have witnessed in real time the existence of an Orange-Blue Bernie bro of the north who'd throw in their lot with the party of bigots just to own the Libs. If a bill to make Netflix support the CBC, and put Kim's Convenience on its recommendations screen, really has you suicidal, please seek professional help.
By the by, Gyor and others may wish to peruse this level-headed take that debunks the frenzy around C-10. It's from Daniel Bernhard of "Friends of Canadian Broadcasting," and it's a clear and easy read.
ReplyDeletehttps://theline.substack.com/p/flipping-the-line-actually-canadians
I have a minor quibble with his take, however: Where he gripes that the bill doesn't go far enough because it actually doesn't censor things like snuff films and CP, isn't telling the whole story. The link that the writer gave, to the transcript of the proceedings at the committee, goes to a discussion between Marci Ien of the Liberals, and the Bloc member Martin Champoux. It was the Bloc member who wanted a more umbrella responsibility for the CRTC to address hate speech and other ills, while Ien sought to limit the scope specifically to the area of "discoverability."
We see BQ-6 as similar to NDP-6, which we have already discussed. We think, at this point, this is not the place to discuss user-generated content. We don't feel that it should not be regulated. Our government has been very clear on this point. We are going to bring forward a bill that deals with this, and we look forward to debating that in the House on the floor. However, at this point, this is something that we don't feel is necessary or appropriate. ... If my honourable colleague needs more on this, I would love to go to our government representatives to provide that clarity as to why we want to separate this at this time.
On this, Ien is correct because what Champoux is proposing goes outside the scope of this particular bill. She says that there is a future bill currently in the works dealing with hate specifically. But C-10 is about CanCon. The as-yet future bill will address hate, probably if the Liberals get a majority so that they don't have to worry about committee obstruction like they've faced with C-10.
But nobody is proposing that mere critique of the government is going to be purged. What deservedly is on the chopping block are things like QAnon and video of the Christchurch massacre. Guilbeault even wants to add "hurtful words" directed at politicians, which is not mere silly mockery like calling O'Toole a tool, Charlie Angus Chuckles the Clown, or Poilievre Skippy the Pigeon, but the really egregious stuff like the vile misogyny aimed at Freeland and McKenna and blatant homophobia directed at Trudeau.
I come from the States where the First Amendment loads the ammo and the Second Amendment pulls the trigger. Where it's legal to put Hillary Clinton's face in the crosshairs or to accuse her of doing unspeakable things to children because it's "free speech." Where it's legal to portray Barack Obama as a monkey, to lynch him in effigy, or to Photoshop burning crosses on the White House lawn. Where it's legal to mock Michelle Obama's initiative for healthy eating as her growing a watermelon garden. Presently, it is still legal in Canada to portray Justin Trudeau as Caitlyn Jenner, and to call him Fruity Trudy, Justine and TruPaul. That's the "free speech" that Michael Geist wants to defend. Why there are self-declared progressive Canadians like Gyor who want to emulate our "free for all" chaos is beyond me. If anything, as an American I wish you would follow Germany's lead and throw the bigots in the hole.
Not to spam the thread, but here's one more nugget to add to the food for thought buffet:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-toronto-content-sharing-site-favoured-by-us-right-wingers-draws/
Do you really want a "YouTube alternative" funded by a bunch of Trump acolytes and the guy behind Palantir spreading their right-wing filth in Canada, simply because "free speech"?
I don't even want these guys in America. Canada shouldn't tolerate them either.
polls are less accurate every day, and the voters more distracted. Its not a place you want to be a tool
ReplyDeleteFYI: Just a head's up that Leger is reportedly coming out with a new one next week that's not so pretty either. As with all polls, however, take this one with a healthy heaping of salt for one big reason:
ReplyDeleteIt was specifically commissioned by Postmedia.
There are lots of ways to "torque" the questions in an omnibus survey to get the desired results without "cooking the books" per se. Postmedia wants to run headlines that the Liberals are in trouble and that society is coming apart at the seams. So one way to do that is to commission a questionnaire that starts off with strategically worded questions about X issue and then puts the voter intent questions at the end, and goes something like, "Thinking about your answers to question(s) 1, 2, and 3, how would you vote if an election were held tomorrow?"
The result is that the respondent is "primed" to think a certain way about the government based on the other topics in the survey and how they're framed. In this case the main subject for the biweekly poll appears to be borders and deficits, which are always the go-to talking points for the "build the wall" / "hey, big spender" Cons and their preferred media outlets.
Do not trust Postmedia and least of all John Ivison to give an accurate gauge of anything whatsoever. Even he concedes the point that with vaccines flowing in (some 40M between now and when Parliament rises/Canada Day, which should be enough to finish the job), any hint of a Con "boost" is likely to be illusory and fleeting. Ignore him. He's trying hard to make fetch happen.
My advice is as follows, and you can refer back to this comment when the poll (and any others) are published: 1) Ignore all polls outside the writ period, particularly those coming from yellow American journalism. 2) Get vaccinated if you haven't already. 3) Adopt the Douglas Adams philosophy to this and any other polls: Don't panic, and always know where your towel is.
Have a good May Two-Four weekend.
That's what I've been saying all along... the liberals are in a weak position, and the best they could do is a coalition with the NDP...
DeleteThe whole con like the last half our of the Crew, or maybe I cant remember exactly and I cant google any more, it was THE STING.
ReplyDeleteSo that is what we have every day from the alleged media that allegedly always loses money yet exist with American at the leat direction, its an strange commentary on the independence of Canada
Yeah, as Simon and Jackie have pointed out, even if the % is close, the Liberals will/can still win because their vote is in more urban areas, across more ridings.
ReplyDeleteThat isn't to say LPC should be complacent, since CPC/NDP will force an election as soon as we are all vaccinated sufficiently.
The debate format should be interesting, to say the least, if there is a series of debates...
Hi Ottlib...Right now it's only Abacus that shows such a sharp rise, and we will have to wait and see whether it's an outlier or not. But O'Toole's campaign is now being run by a gang of foreigners who are masters in media manipulation and we can't take any chances. So the casual approach is over...
ReplyDeleteHi John...I follow UK politics very closely, and I can say that Boris Johnson's Tories are the worst gang of far-right Con artists and grifters I have ever seen. They are hard core ideologues, who among other things want to privatize the NHS and kill the BBC, which just happens to be what O'Toole's bastard gang wants to do here. So this country is in real danger...
ReplyDeleteHi Gyor...Maybe Bill C-10 is giving the Cons a boost in the polls, it certainly has you all worked up. For nothing. I'll leave Jackie to explain why, in the comment that follows yours. But I will say that I'm surprised and a little disappointed that you can be fooled so easily. But I'm not surprised that an NDP supporter can so easily switch to the Cons, because the party and its millionaire leader only exist to split the progressive vote, and must be considered as much of a threat to this country as are the Cons...
ReplyDeleteHi Jackie...Thanks for explaining things to Gyor in your usual fine manner. I should have done that too, but I am still a little exhausted from my excellent long weekend. And the ignorance surrounding Bill C-10 is more than I can handle. The Liberals could have explained it better, and so could our shabby media. But to whip up a collective hysteria like the Cons have is simply beyond the pale. Especially coming from the gang that wants to kill the CBC, and went out of its way during the Harper years to suppress free speech and scientific reports on the environment. The Cons hate Canada so much they don't care about supporting Canadians artists. But Google and Netflix must be laughing their heads off to see such stupidity...
ReplyDeleteHi Jackie...Don't worry I haven't completely lost my marbles, although I may be suffering from a mild case of sun stroke. But I agree with you Postmedia is now commissioning polls, as well whipping its "journalists" into a frenzy. They know they only have a few months to try to boost the Cons into contention, so most polls should be taken with huge pinch of salt...
ReplyDeleteHi Steve...our shabby media has disgraced itself for years but now they are beyond redemption, just like most of the media are in the UK. If it wasn't for social media this country would resemble a right-wing dictatorship. So we have to make sure our media Cons are denounced and boycotted until they finally get the message...
ReplyDeleteHi Pierre...Thanks for pointing out that the Cons get a lot of votes from backward places like Alberta and Saskatchewan, but not many seats. While the Liberals can still win easily with all the votes they get from Ontario, Quebec, and the Atlantic provinces. And you're also right to warn against complacency. For the Cons are now run by ruthless foreign operatives and they will do what they can to kill this country...
ReplyDeleteHi Jsb...I see you are dreaming again. There will be no coalition with the NDP for they are little more than Cons in drag. The National Post is even running stories where Con operatives are encouraging progressives to support the dilettante millionaire Jagmeet Singh. They know a Con when they see one, and in even in the Abacus poll in question the NDP are going nowhere...
ReplyDeleteLike I wrote above, in 2009 the liberals supported the conservatives, and not the NDP... anyway I am now expecting the conservatives to do much better than before, so I'm not sure if I were a liberal partisan like many of the commenters here that I would be so confident...🤔
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