I must admit I didn't think that the fake WE scandal would have any effect on the Liberal party standings, or on the popularity of Justin Trudeau.
It's so obviouly a manufactured scandal, and the only reason it lasted more than a day was because the Con media made it sound like the biggest story in the world.
I thought that Canadians would understand that, and also recognize the excellent work Trudeau has been doing to lead us through a deadly pandemic.
But sadly I was wrong.
So this latest Abacus poll was a bit of a shock.
If an election were held right now, the Liberal Party (36%) lead nationally – five-point ahead of the Conservatives (31%) – but Liberal support has slid four points since our last measurement at the end of June.
Public impressions of the Prime Minister have also taken a hit, dropping 5-points over the past month. Today 42% have a positive view of Mr. Trudeau and 36% say their feeling is negative.
But that shock didn't last long. For after I took a closer look at the poll I realized there was nothing to be worried about.
For despite the all out assault by Andrew Scheer and his stooges in the Con media...
The dial has barely moved.
And in the case of the hapless Jagmeet Singh, despite his best efforts to imitate Scheer's Trudeau hate, it hasn't moved at all....
And judging by what Singh said today it never will.
When people need help – they’re told to wait— Jagmeet Singh (@theJagmeetSingh) July 20, 2020
But when friends of the PM need help, he jumps to give them a nearly billion dollar bailout
The PM needs to admit that giving money to WE was never about help for students, but about help for his well-connected friends pic.twitter.com/q9cnvuxBGi
For he just doesn't get it.
Most Canadians have no time for ugly, divisive, American-style politics. They expect better from the NDP, and the last thing they need is a second-rate Scheer impersonator.
As for the real Scheer, with only a month to before he's replaced as leader he's in such a friggin' frenzy, he's now demanding that Trudeau should RESIGN !!!!
Scheer says Liberal MPs signalling they're OK with 'corruption' if they don't demand Trudeau's resignation https://t.co/aJ8HOxGQ8R #hw #cdnpoli pic.twitter.com/q2BJNx0bJQ— CBC Politics (@CBCPolitics) July 20, 2020
In a final fit of naked desperation. Or STUPIDITY.
For all Trudeau has to do is wait until the Con leadership race reaches its bloody climax, and they're practically killing each other, and then ask Canadians this one simple question:
Who do you prefer me or THEM?
And I think the answer will be obvious.
The losers in the Con media can still bat their wings, and scream "boss boss we're almost WINNING!!!"
But we're going to teach them a lesson they'll never forget.
The Cons still got NOTHING.
Justin Trudeau is still leading this country through a murderous pandemic.
Hey moms and dads! Today’s the day - your Canada Child Benefit is going up again. That means you’ll have more money to pay for whatever your kids need this summer and all year long - whether that’s healthy food, new clothes, or activities the family can do at home. pic.twitter.com/VSMN5ReS4P— Justin Trudeau (@JustinTrudeau) July 20, 2020
When the time comes to vote most Canadians will remember that, not some fake scandal.
So the future, if we survive, still belongs to us...
Hey Simon, if you're against ugly, divisive politics, why are you always so ugly and divisive on your blog?
ReplyDeleteHi Vivian....I’ve been fighting Cons for a long time, so I can recognize one when I see one, or smell one. And you really stink. Take a hike loser, and don’t bother leaving any other comments, for I will delete them on arrival...
ReplyDeleteHi Simon
ReplyDeleteI know I said I was going to check out for awhile because I'm sick of this nonsense, but I couldn't resist.
That Abacus poll freaked me out too, but it was more likely a push poll. Some late Leger numbers just came out and the dial hasn't moved at all. I'll wait for Lean Tossup's analysis tomorrow morning, but 338 Canada rates Leger higher than Abacus in terms of accuracy. Evan Scrimshaw this morning did say that the Abacus regionals were wonky and to take it with quite a few grains of salt.
Usually David and Bruce do a pretty good job, but this one was gross malpractice. Almost like it was rushed and commissioned to torque a narrative, because P&P picked it right up and Vichy was all giddy about the dip.
The finance committee, meanwhile, is going to be a cavalcade of clowns. Jesse Brown is testifying because he's desperate to get his 15 minutes out of all this. He got piled on by several journalists for setting a bad precedent, vis-a-vis last year when Aaron Wherry was subpoenaed for his notes on the SNC chapter of his book. Which just goes to show that he isn't a real journalist but a grandstanding wannabe celebrity no better than Ezra Levant.
After that is Vivian Krause, Kenney's favorite conspiracy theorist, and then the Keeblebrothers themselves. I wrote over on Dale Smith's blog that I'm waiting for Bob and Doug MacKenzie and the Property Brothers to be on the witness list, and that these summer reruns of Stupid Law & Order are getting boring and I'd rather watch hockey.
No word yet on whether Trudeau himself joins this Westminster dog and pony show. I imagine he has more important things on his agenda than taking part in the Kafkaesque star chamber of the Skippy & Chuckles "Good Cop/Bad Cop" variety act.
At the very least, he and the rest of us can take a small sigh of relief for right now knowing that the real numbers are still in good shape.
For now, anyway.
Hi Jackie....Now that’s the spirit, I knew I could count on you. It’s perfectly understandable to feel overwhelmed these days with the bullshit meter off the scale. But nobody knows how to call bullshit more than you, and with the Scheer Cons and the filthy fascist Trump to take down we are going to be busy. I have always liked the Abacus gang and I still do, but something didn’t seem right about that poll, and I like the Leger one better....😺
ReplyDeleteVivian you sound like a con so how dare you call others ugly and divisive, when there is nothing as ugly and divisive than a con. Makes no sense to me.
ReplyDeleteAbacus seems to be using a panel. They say the MOE would be ~3% if the survey was random. One has to question their methods.
ReplyDeleteI couldn't find a recent Leger poll on their website. Could someone please point me in the right direction.
Hi rumleyfips....I can do better than that. I'm just writing a short post on the Leger numbers...
ReplyDeleteRumleyfips, if you go on Wikipedia there's a whole list of polls leading up to #elxn44, under "Opinion polling for the 44th Canadian federal election". The Leger one was just posted late last night. Also on @CanadianPolling account.
ReplyDeleteSimon, as to calling out bullshit I've been keeping my focus primarily on the disturbing strange-bedfellows relationship between the NDP and CPC. Similar to Layton's devil's bargain with Harper to take down Martin using a "scandal" as excuse. Or how Bernie surrogates went on Fox News to join Tucker Carlson and Sean Hannity in bashing the "mainstream Democrats." They're fighting the wrong enemy. Pincer warfare, horseshoe politics. Their supporters have become utterly venomous towards the Trudeau family, Margaret in particular, thanks to Charlie's attacks on her. As I pointed out in the last post about that guy comparing Justin Trudeau to Charles I when faced down by Oliver Cromwell.
Brian Lilley is gleefully retweeting Jagmeet Singh to pump the NDP's tires and split the vote. Charlie Angus and Matthew Green share Post Millennial content, which is backing Erin O'Toole through Jeff Ballingall. Matthew Green, after being the only Dipper to denounce the "gate crasher" when nobody else seemed to care, has since switched to echoing Con rhetoric about the "Laurentian elites." Now Karl Belanger, NDP strategist, is retweeting of all people, Harper's homophobic hatchet man Richard Decarie. What they all have in common is a really nasty misogynistic streak whereby they sic their followers on Liberal-supporting women who call them out. Bernie bro behavior no different from the MAGA mob, but in Canada. Populist pitchfork persecution politics from prolefeed pricks with PP problems.
That goes doubly or even thousand-fold for Jesse Brown, who is also joining Kenney's favorite conspiracy theorist Vivian Krause to turn the Finance committee into an absolute gong show while setting a bad precedent for journalists to potentially be called to testify before committees. As we saw last year when Aaron Wherry was called to testify on the SNC issue and share his notes from Promise & Peril.
Althia Raj called him out for it, and got bombarded by a bunch of Brownshirts leveling misogynistic and racist invective her way. A number of whom appear to be self-declared Dippers with oranges and/or roses in their profiles, parroting Con talking points and rhetoric. He's a shit disturber and he's going to stop at nothing to capitalize on his newfound fame no matter who gets hurt or what damage it does to the government or democracy in the process.
It should be noted that the far left and far right coming together to attack the center is what brought down the Weimar Republic. The rest, as they say, is history. I hope and I pray that the same doesn't happen to Canada due to this unholy alliance between the NDP and CPC.
Thanks Jackie ; it never occured to m me to go to Wiki.
ReplyDeleteOnline polls have no Margin of Error (MOE). However, polling companies still put one there claiming that "if it were a random sample" then the MOE would be ... Which is basically them trying to give some sort of legitimacy to bullshit polls. Why do them? Because, they're cheap to do. Only pay attention to the IVR polls. Unfortunately, they're a bit dated at the moment.
ReplyDeleteUU
UU, does anybody do IVR in Canada other than Frank Graves? He only seems to publish a release once every time Halley's Comet orbits the earth in a leap year. I think Mainstreet does, but they're also pretty sporadic. Probably because, like you said, Internet panels are cheap. Anybody can sign up and register their outrage with the government in exchange for an Amazon gift card.
ReplyDeleteToryStar is now partnering with Nick Kouvalis, so that should give you an indication of where that once reputable paper is going to go. Sad.