It was a grim winter for Justin Trudeau and his Liberals. A series of fake scandals, whipped into a frenzy by our shabby Con media, dragged down their polls.
And at one point it seemed that Andrew Scheer's sinister Cons were heading for a crushing majority. One that would finally allow them to mutilate Canada beyond recognition.
But after a cold spring, summer has finally arrived, and it seems that Scheer's shining vision of that godly majority is melting, or whatever...
For this latest NANOS poll only confirms what other polling organization have also suggested.
A new Nanos Research poll released Tuesday shows the Liberals and Conservatives in a statistical tie for first place, separated by only three-tenths of a percentage point. The company’s weekly tracking poll has the Conservatives with a slight lead of 32.8 per cent, compared to the Liberals at 32.5 per cent, followed by the NDP at 16.9 per cent and the Greens in fourth with 10.2 per cent.
The Liberals are rebounding the Cons are declining, and as I predicted the NDP and the Greens are going NOWHERE.
Some Cons and some pundits say the Scheer cult peaked too soon, and that's probably true.
But I think their biggest problem is that they have run out of fake scandals.
The Judy Wilson-Rayboult and Jane Philpott fake scandal helped them for a long time, a very long time. An indecently long time.
But then Canadians got tired of that never-ending Canadian version of Thelma and Louise. The two Connies ended up fighting for their own seats, and looking like stale toast...
While in Quebec, the fake scandal actually helped Trudeau.
In the rest of Canada, the Trudeau government’s SNC intervention was seen as practically grounds for impeachment, if Canada had such a thing. In Quebec, where SNC benefits from being both a large employer and a crown jewel in the province’s proud nationalist crown, Quebecers looked at the government’s attempt to intervene on behalf of the company and wondered that the fuss was.
And now the Admiral Norman fake scandal, which the Cons had been trying to blow up like a balloon, has just gone POP!!
And if Scheer and his far-right cult were thinking of stirring up a little racism for crass political purposes...
They can forget about that.
Scheer's fraudulent "climate plan" is already being called a "prop" or a "sad joke" by some in the media...
Which can only hurt him more and more, as the days get hotter and hotter.
And to make matters even worse, if that's possible, it seem that every time he opens his mouth, the less Canadians like him...
Nanos Research CEO and @CTVNews resident pollster @niknanos offers some insight as to what could be in store for @AndrewScheer and the Conservatives in the weeks to come. #ctvqp #cdnpoli pic.twitter.com/7rx2xgT8mR— CTV'S QUESTION PERIOD (@ctvqp) June 23, 2019
And then of course there's Doug Ford who is
As the desperate Ford helps make the desperate Scheer look even smaller, even weaker...
And even more ridiculous.
And just wait until we reveal how the Cons are planning to mutilate medicare, and the Liberals introduce their REAL pharmacare plans.
For I think I might have to call that a prescription for a MAJORITY.
Oh boy, I'm already having a fabulous summer.
But I'm also looking forward to a really great fall...
If it's what you say it is, I love it, especially in the late summer. I'd even settle for an LPC minority à la 1972, as long as Scheer's only throne speech involves him crying in the little boys' bathroom. If Bob Stanfield was alive, he'd be disgusted over what's happened to his party and probably throw that football right at Andy's flaccid "poll." But I digress.
ReplyDeleteNow, I don't know what metric Grenier and 338 use -- I'm guessing a lot of other bullshit push polls and Internet surveys that oversample the Cons, like Reid, Forum and Koch-corrupted Ipsos, end up in their Moneyball machine. Nanos seems to be pretty reliable. But I will say Mainstreet also has good news to report and so does Frank Graves at Ekos. Frank was on the Danielle Smith radio program to talk more about his findings, a broadcast he shared on his Twitter account here. Lots more hard work to do, but at least there's some sunny ways breaking through the dark clouds at last. Campaigns matter.
Meanwhile, the Cons have sunk to a new and desperate low putting Justin in de facto blackface to rile up the racist petrosexuals. As Rob Silver said this morning, maybe Andrew Scheer should show Andrew Scheer the door. Sandy Garossino at National Observer is trying to get the word out to the green zealots that the Liberals have done a lot more on climate that will all fall apart if the vote-splitters focus obsessively on, er, Justin's pipeline. What's clear is that we need to keep on plugging away and, as Gerry Butts says, keep the main thing the main thing.
I've already come up with a slogan for the campaign if you want to share it. Vote Liberal 2019: Make Stephen Harper a Sore Loser Again.
If Bob Stanfield was alive, he'd be disgusted over what's happened to his party
DeleteJoe Clark, and even Brian Mulroney, much as I detested him, are probably weeping as they see what is happening to their party.
They both had a sense of ethics, I'd say Clark's equalled that of Stanfield.
Brian's ethics were a bit more flexible but his behaviour over Apartheid and his willingness to rescue Vietnamese boat people tend to demonstrate a concern for humanity.
Hi Jackie...At this stage of the game polls are only useful for suggesting who has the wind in their sails, and in that regard the Liberals seem to be the ones who do. The way the Cons are behaving suggests that they are increasingly desperate, And portraying Justin Trudeau in blackface can only damage them further....
DeleteWell, unlike you, I don't want a Liberal majority. I'm fine with them winning, but want a minority government with a strong NDP (and possibly Green) minority, as that has brought about the most serious progressive legislation.
ReplyDeleteI just want to see JT remain PM, one because I like him ;-) and two because I want Canada to have a much-needed diplomatic reset with a (hoped-for) Democratic President like his father did with Jimmy Carter. Above all, the RepubliCons need to be kept on the outside looking in.
DeleteElizabeth Warren and other candidates are talking about national healthcare, and I really don't want to see the U.S. finally get it and Canada lose theirs. Also, it was really encouraging last night to see Spanish being spoken at the debates. Finally, we're catching up to Canada in terms of encouraging multilingualism. Many people don't know that Sophie habla español and I'd love to see another WH state dinner, this time with her saying buenos dias on Telemundo. It'd freak out the Cons and the Fox News audience who think she married Fidel Jr.
But policy aside, purely from a humor perspective it might be fun to see the TruGrits propped up by the GPC if for no other reason than to call the new government, "The Red/Green Show." Harper and Trump have screwed things up? We'll fix it with duct tape!
Quite a number of QuébécoisEs also speak Spanish, since we speak a related Latin language, and have learnt English, which is actually harder for francophones, especially the abundance of consonants (and German is even worse).
DeleteWe need to keep Trudeau with a majority otherwise we're not going to get any progress done. Look at all the positives the opposition voted against. Plus the sabotage of the provincial con premiers will continue whether JT gets a minority or a majority. That sabotage can be handled better with a liberal majority. I'd like to get every reform con out of government forever. Just my opinion. Thanks.
DeleteHi lagatta...I'm hoping for a Trudeau majority because it would really devastate the Cons, and because I believe that Justin deserves one. But I can live with a minority. I don't know if you remember I was once a big coalition supporter, and at this perilous point in our history all I demand is that the filthy Cons be defeated...
DeleteHi A Canuck's Thoughts....although I told lagatta that I would be OK with a minority, after reading your comment I changed my mind.. My head tells me a minority would be OK but my heart says I want a MAJORITY 🎉🎉🎉
DeleteMomentum is important.
ReplyDeleteI'm waiting for a cartoon from you , titled ' For The People ' showing dougies with a giant screwdriver turning a big screw into a voters back.
Hi rumleyfips...I agree that momentum is important, but at this point Dougie seems to be providing that all by himself. So if I do a cartoon maybe it should be one of Dougie screwing himself...
DeleteThe two Connies are toast, pass the peanut butter. You always said they would pass Simon, and as they do the Liberal numbers go up. How did those two get to fool so many Canadians, and aren't they just a little ashamed of themselves?
ReplyDeleteHow they fooled the public is called the firehose of falsehood propaganda model. Very popular in (tada) Russia. Saturated media coverage of a supposed "scandal" that zeroes in on an angle or several angles that a candidate is deemed vulnerable on. See: "Hillary's Emails."
Deletehttps://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PE198.html
In this case the chosen vulnerabilities were 1) vague allegations of "Liberal corruption" to push progressives to scatter and split the vote; 2) old stereotypes about corruption in Quebec (q.v. Chretien vs. Martin); 3) fomenting anger at la belle province out West, by accusing Trudeau of caring about jobs in Quebec and not oil workers in Alberta; and 4) labeling Trudeau a hypocrite on the Indigenous file and feminism after the "strong woman" told "her truth".
I doubt the useful idiots have any shame over it. Their enablers certainly don't, because they just hate Trudeau and are thirsty for power no matter what. Now it's up to all decent Canadians to ensure that their plot amounts to nothing in October.
FYI: Stand on guard for thee, Canada. The next "fake scandal" -- the pipeline "debate" -- is being manipulated on the extreme ends by something not quite human:
ReplyDeleteCanada's most popular political hashtags (like #cdnpoli, #bcpoli, #abpoli) are being hijacked by inauthentic Twitter activity (bots, artificial amplification, astroturfing, etc), with serious implications for public discourse.
The pipeline debate is definitely being influenced by inauthentic activity. It’s a hot button issue, which makes it a perfect target for bad actors & politically-motivated operatives.
...and it's not just the various Proud accounts (or Green paper candidates) who stand to benefit from this all-or-nothing debate that loses the bigger picture, although there's certainly some questions to be raised as to whether they're acting as operatives for someone else:
One of the hidden investors in Alberta oil sands is Gazprom. They’ve partnered with Exxon’s Canadian subsidiary, Imperial Oil. March 15, 2019, Igor Sechin and Gazprom we’re sanctioned by Canada. Freezing their assets and cutting off any profit.
Take it from an American -- don't fall for the fake news.
Hi Jackie....The Cons with the help of foreign players are turning social media into a jungle. My own cyber police (the real police) have warned me that my Twitter page is under attack. I expect some arrests soon, and if the guilty are who I think they are, some Cons could end up in jail...
DeleteWell Said .. PM Trudeau has done more for Canada than any PM before him ..
ReplyDeleteBeg to differ, Sir John A did more.
DeleteRight. Just ask Louis Riel.
DeleteWe need a Liberal minority. ItsI the only way we'll get electoral reform that was promised in the last election. Then the Cons will basically cease to exist.
ReplyDeleteThen tell May to back off and convince her cult to vote strategically this time around to keep Trudeau at the helm, because the Liberals won't get anywhere on any issue, minority or majority, if the Greens keep siphoning support. Sandy Garossino is trying desperately to get the single-issue zealots to see the bigger picture and getting pushback at every turn. They're obsessed with Justin's pipeline like their Con cohorts are obsessed with his banana and his socks appeal. Freudian politics aside, their biggest delusion is that they seriously think the Greens can form a government. This is so Jill Stein in 2016 and based on some other things I've read I'm actually starting to think there is foreign ratfucking involved. Trudeau is at G20. I shudder to think of what Putin is promising Trump to help get rid of him.
DeleteElectoral reform will not cause the Cons to cease to exist but could actually strengthen them... just take a look at Netty and his gang as well as others. In some respects deception becomes easier, all they have to do is change their strategy and create a group of special interest satellite parties that coalesce around the innocently familiar stalking horse after the election. The way to counter that is to set the requirements for party status at 7 to 10 % of popular support before they can form coalitions but watch the Cons and others howl at that one. As long as people are easily open to emotional manipulation the Cons will find a way.
DeleteRT
Thank you RT, for providing some facts. It's worth noting that besides the fact Trudeau punted when the NDP and Cons blew up the committee into a shitshow, PR didn't stop the AfD from causing havoc in Germany, and even Trudeau's preferred model of ranked ballots didn't stop the LibCons in Australia. Barack Obama won the electoral college and popular vote twice. Hillary Clinton and Al Gore won the popular vote but lost the electoral college. Getting rid of it now would likely incur another civil war. The U.S. is corrupted by partisan gerrymandering that, let's be honest, has everything to do with race. All the wonky models any political scientist could come up with aren't going to change the minds of people who never got over the Three-Fifths Compromise.
DeleteThe real problem is corporate media sponsoring disinfo, exploiting latent (or blatant) biases among the electorate, and swaying the public against their own interests. To borrow a line from Billy Shakes, the fault is not in our electoral system, but in ourselves.
The risk of Scheer getting a majority government with only 39% of the vote is due to overconfidence by the PMO, since proportional representation would have stopped that. Let's not make the same mistake twice. A multi-partisan democratic reform that no one can call partisan gerrymandering, enacted by a Liberal minority depending on the NDP and Greens, will be the last chance to end that risk once and for all.
Delete@Wilf Day -- I am all for shouting STRATEGIC VOTING from the rooftops right now as an emergency to stop the Cons by any means possible, and doing whatever's necessary after the fact to keep them permanently on the outside looking in. But after witnessing their shameful behavior making a deal with the devil during the Justin's Emails bullshit, their power-mad salivation to topple a Trudeau at all costs and now, their atrocious harassment of Liberal supporters on social media to the point of doxing and other threats, I don't see why anyone on the red team should trust the DipperCons and Composter Cons not to sabotage things in a minority-government scenario. Or, for that matter, not to do what they're doing for this election cycle already and siphon off votes to "own the Libs."
DeleteMay is a fraud, a myopic zealot and a cult leader who did her own acid-rain drip-drip-drip in Mulroney's office, and can't be trusted any more than her two backstabbing acolytes who Trudeau, in his sincere "common ground" desire to "air all perspectives" and "do politics differently" took far too long to kick out. Jag Who? is grasping for relevance, and the Dippers never got over losing what they thought would be their big orange wave in 2015 to someone they felt "inherited" the job, even though he worked his ass off and continues to do so for the good of the country rather than his own benefit. How quaint, a genuine public servant rather than a soulless politician. A schoolteacher. Figures he gets gone after by three party leaders whose previous careers involved making money off misery: two lawyers and an insurance salesman.
I am disgusted with the lot of them. The Cons' craven behavior comes as no surprise; they are Maple Republicans after all. But the other two claim to hold the "moral high ground," yet their selfish grasp for power and irrational vendetta towards one man has blinded them to the necessity of realpolitik and compromise and the best interests of Canadians as a whole, and only serves to aid and abet the worst possible alternative. As long as Trudeau has a target on his back and unintentionally inspires such bloodthirsty wrath among his rivals, they cannot be trusted.
Why PropRep or bust? Like I said, it didn't stop the AfD or Likud. Better for the country that they went bankrupt and either disappeared or folded into the two juggernauts, with certain rules and vetting applied as to how "fringe" any party or candidate's platform is allowed to be. Expel Harper/Scheer's western yahoos, racists and Christian fundamentalists over to Max's lunatic fringe cult or just kick them out altogether, and let the Greens take over as the climate-friendly PCs. The Dippers should just be the AOC wing of the "Democratic Party of Canada." The configuration that exists now is a distraction, a threat and dissonant noise.
Hi Wilf
DeleteYou are basing your projections on the % support for the current parties. That will change after electoral reform. Like chameleons the Cons will appear to shed the extremists and religious fanatics to steal more votes from the center. The political spin offs will form new parties that will magically coalesce after the election to form a coalition government. Netty played that game for years and almost succeeded again in spite of criminal charges. He missed by only one seat because one of the minor militant parties that normally supported him wanted a deal that excused party members from the draft based on religious grounds. Proportional representation works providing the party status is set at 7 to 10 % of the popular vote but good luck with that one. Below that level, the splinter groups and back room deals that are required to form a coalition government are exceedingly destructive. Yes the Liberals, NDP and Greens are a fit but with a little tweaking of their platform eventually the new improved centrist Cons, Granic Allens, Oily Champoins and GUBOC X 2 (give us back our country) parties would have an equal chance of forming the next coalition. All of the special interest groups get something but the average person not so much! The key is the minimum support level for party recognition but it will take a very gutsy move to set it high enough to discourage gamesmanship.
RT
If you are dreaming of Canada returning to the two-party system it has never had since 1921, you are not facing reality. Millions of voters voted Liberal in 2015 on the promise, repeated 1,800 times, that this would be the last first-past-the-post election. No poll suggests they will repeat that this year.
DeleteThe Town Halls Report from the Pact for a Green New Deal says "Participants made systemic links between current environmental issues and the necessity of ending corporate lobbying and transforming the democratic systems and institutions that have helped to create the multiple crises we face. Participants noted they would like to see “no more first past the post elections.” Specific recommendations included honouring the promise of making Canada a Proportional Representation Democracy."
Liberals need to get ready to do what should have been done two years ago.
Then if that's what your goal is, start shouting STRATEGIC VOTING from the rooftops instead of this vote-your-conscience bullshit to own the Libs and kick Justin Rodham Trudeau. Allowing the TrumpCons to get back in because of purity policing will end up making Canada a one-party fascist petrostate. There's idealism and there's reality. You want any progress at all, you need Trudeau at the helm. May is not going to be PM no matter how many green crystals and packets of FernGully dust gets thrown her way.
DeleteAt some point the Conservative party moved from a party dedicated to solving issues to one of using issues as props for deception. Perhaps not a bad strategy as issues can take on a life of their own along with the fortunes of political parties anchored to them. Similar to a magic act their strategy is all about the entertainment and suspense associated with magically pulling a bunny from the empty hat and not the logic of how the bunny got there in the first place or what it will do afterwards... its all about the moment when a white cuddly Scheer that represents all that is good will pop out of the hat on election night to the elation of the duped crowd. Following the event everyone can go home knowing that the masters of deceptive magic will continue to work their magic and keep them safe and prosperous for the next four years. The strategy is attractive because once enticed into the theater the audience can be easily manipulated by the carefully choreographed props and limited freedom to move around the stage but there are problems with this approach. For example the audience cannot suddenly demand that a climate thumping beaver be pulled from the hat instead of a cuddly white rabbit. Also the rabbit is a symbol meant to be put in a cage and admired while the nasty work of dismantling democratic safe guards to facilitate future magic acts is kept hidden as much as possible. Its a real problem that the provincial Cons released the Dougie bunny and the believers are appalled to witness how quickly it has grown into into a full fledged jack rabbit either crapping on or gnawing apart everything in its path. Definitely not part of an event type strategy where its all about the event and not about the aftermath unless its a parade to celebrate the event. What will the next election bring ... plans to address issues or issues as props for deceptive magic?
ReplyDeleteRT
Speaking of props for deceptive magic: my earlier post about the "Red/Green Show" headline was purely for joke purposes, as I don't trust May or her enablers one bit. You're not imagining things, the bumbling magician and his assistant really do want to saw the Liberal vote in half:
Deletehttps://twitter.com/althiaraj/status/1144446170628050944
It is very interesting to see the @CPC_HQ, its MPs and candidates promote the Greens (noticed this on the road too). Conventional thinking is Green votes will mostly come from would-be/former Liberal voters.
Add to that his stealth language around cannabis. "Buck-a-weed." Scheer is a sociopath who talks out of both sides of his... orifices. A trained monkey who will do and say anything to get elected and use anyone as a useful stooge, and then destroy everything once in.
That he and the Cons are hiding behind women (May, the two Connies, a series of "young female candidates") to poke at Trudeau's feminist credentials while running candidates who want to defund abortion is especially craven and low. Wornout must be advising them at this point. That's his M.O. Disgusting.
Hi RT...I think you summed up the situation in your usual brilliant manner. The Cons are trying to hypnotize us into believing that they won't spring any nasty surprises on Canadians if people are dumb enough to elect them. But luckily Doug Fraud is showing people the danger of electing a Con, and he's doing the Scheer Cons some real damage. I once made a graphic of Fraud pulling a monstrous creature out of a hat, so I may have to run it again...😉
DeleteIt's good news Simon but it's still unbelievable that Scheer is even in it. I'm hoping his pathetic climate "plan" will soon have more Canadians seeing this fraud for what he is. Rest assured that no plan Andy does have a plan and he doesn't want anyone to know what it is unless his lies and Con MSM get him elected. Then, the destruction of Canada begun under Harper will continue on and we will become another Trumpian shithole country.
ReplyDeleteJD
He's covering for that bullshit climate non-plan by pointing the single-issue eco-voters over to the Greens to split the vote. With plenty of purchased social-media bot activity and M$M coverage to drive gullible voters into a composter. The Financial Post article I posted the other day makes it evident that May is only more than happy to oblige as long as it raises her profile and she can climb aboard the Justin sucks bandwagon. If she thinks the Greens are going to be the Opposition like the NDP in 2011 she's deluded. All she'd do is continue yelling from the cheap seats while the Putin Petroleum Party ravages the landscape she claims to care about so much, but hey, as long as it scores her 15 minutes of infamy just like the two mean girls and Jill Stein. May is a fringe meme candidate who is less serious on any issue than Marianne Williamson. What's her foreign policy besides "Huawei 5G wifi causes chakra-unaligned autism"? And they say Trudeau is bananas?
DeleteI thought Canada was a relative beacon of sanity and respectable governance, especially when the U.S. had gone awry. I find it utterly pathetic and eye-opening how the behavior of these self-interested narcissists is allowed to go unchecked. But they get plenty of help from the media stooges and their prion disease of Trudeau derangement syndrome. Whodathunkit? Hair envy is a powerful drug!
Hi JD...I feel exactly the same way you do. I'm happy the Trudeau Liberals have the wind in their sails, but I just can't believe the Scheer Cons are still in the race. Ten years of Harper has clearly corrupted this country. But don't despair, we are going to fight them harder than ever, and I'm still confident that we will be victorious...
DeleteOn paper the best economy is history. I can see where JT acting 21st vs Harper 18th century was responsible. Still I think its a very fragile place we all occupy, in no way sustainable.
ReplyDeleteYeah electing a pathological liar like Trudeau a second time is such a good idea. "the budget will be balanced in 2019", Trudeau has added another 85 billion to the national debt which his father largely started, same old same old. "2015 will be the last election using first past the post"
ReplyDelete