I couldn't understand it. It seemed to make no sense to me. Why in the sweltering summer of the hate crime, were Andrew Scheer and his Cons fanning the flames of racism?
Why were they playing politics with the border issue, at a time when police all over the country were busy busting hate mongers.
Why was this happening In a country called Canada?
And then I saw a new Abacus poll, and it all became horribly clear.
For while the apparently tight horserace is not surprising.
If a vote was held tomorrow, 36% would vote Liberal, 34% Conservative, and 19% NDP. We see competitive races in Ontario and BC (Liberals and Conservatives), while the Liberals lead in Atlantic Canada and Quebec and the Conservatives have a lead on the Prairies.
Not after the mugging Justin Trudeau's Liberals received from the Cons and their stooge media in the spring.
And the only reason the Cons aren't trailing by more percentage points is because of their massive majorities in the Con bastions of Saskatchewan and Alberta.
But if this chart truly reflects what is motivating some Canadians to want a change in government, then this country is in big trouble.
For it shows that the Cons have been successful in convincing many Canadians that the border issue is a "crisis."
Successful in making them believe the big black/brown boogyman is a real "threat."
And a new Angus Reid poll also suggests that Con's racism is working.
A new poll suggests Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's Liberals are losing the political debate over the issue of irregular border crossings.
A majority of Canadians polled by the Angus Reid Institute say that the number of asylum seekers crossing into the country is too high, while a plurality point to Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer as the best major party leader to handle the issue.
When in fact there is no crisis. Canada can easily handle the 30,000 cases it had to deal with in 2017. This year's numbers are going down not up. Trump not Trudeau is mostly to blame for any increase. And Scheer is part of the problem, not part of the solution.
But although the government is trying to calm down nervous Canadians, by among other things appointing the former police chief Bill Blair to handle the border issue.
The Cons will not stop trying to stir up racism and xenophobia as Scheer, Michelle Rempel and Pierre Poilievre are trying to do here:
Justin Trudeau's new Minister can't answer straightforward questions about his file, and the agencies responsible for the border don't even report to him. Canadians expect the government to take our border security seriously. pic.twitter.com/avPxpfpCTU— Andrew Scheer (@AndrewScheer) August 1, 2018
Accusing the Liberals of playing politics with an issue the Cons are blowing up like a balloon for crass political purposes. How crazy is that and how low can they go?
There are other depressing results in that Abacus change voter's chart.
Like the lingering effect of Trudeau's visit to India, and the fake scandal the Cons and their bought media created.
Thank you Con stooges.
But the border issue is the most serious political issue facing the Liberals and the NDP. And the one that must be addressed head on.
By reassuring Canadians, by attacking the Cons for blowing it out of proportion, and by linking Scheer to some of the worst racist groups in Canada.
As well as hammering his creepy religious fanaticism, his grotesque misogyny, his virulent homophobia and questioning his loyalty to Canada.
And if that is done, and progressives stop playing patty cake with the Cons and start going for the jugular, Scheer's numbers will almost certainly fall away like autumn leaves, or melt like a chunk of rancid butter in the hot sun.
The universe, as David Anderson writes, will probably continue unfolding according to plan.
Today’s numbers show ample opportunity for the Conservatives to have a successful election next year, but also show that more people are satisfied than dissatisfied with the direction of the country, the performance of the government and the Prime Minister.
And Justin Trudeau, a real Canadian leader, will almost certainly keep heading for another majority government...
Fortunately, the poll you quote above is another BS on-line poll.
ReplyDeleteUU
So that means any online polls showing the Liberals ahead such as Ipsos and Abacus are BS as well?
DeleteCan’t have it both ways you know.
This article deals with the Cruz/O'Rourke race in Texas, but has some good general advice to keep in mind about how to evaluate polls.
Deletehttps://www.rawstory.com/2018/08/cruz-lead-orourke-six-points-two-heres-evaluate-texas-polls/
Particularly of note is the point about not putting too much stock in polls being taken over the phone or Internet, or about results that come in months ahead of an election. I get calls from Quinnipiac on the Caller ID all the time. I never pick up. The notion that a few hundred or couple thousand people out of 330M (or 36M in Canada), out of the ones who bothered to answer the phone or opt-in to emails/Facebook surveys at all, is really representative of the majority, is an idea that's always seemed specious to me. But I'm also reminded of the fact also that nobody held a commanding lead in the 2015 federal election until the last minute when, well, the rest is history. It's propaganda and it's up to people not to fall for it.
That being said, ambivalence and even outright hostility towards immigrants and refugees -- especially after that poor little Syrian boy drowned off the coast of Turkey -- was perhaps THE issue that swung the results away from Harper, and THE issue that took front and center in the election. It's also an issue that, even in the earliest days of Trudeau's initial election honeymoon Canadians have never really polled in an overwhelmingly positive manner on. This Vox interview from 2016 proves that. And the reporter was asking Trudeau a question about whether Canadians would welcome AMERICANS seeking asylum, never mind Syrians, Haitians or other "others"!
The one factor that wasn't in play in 2015, of course, was Trump. But hopefully the cons haven't learned their lesson and history will repeat itself yet again in 2019. The real problem is the media, another sorry bunch of lame old white guys, stabbing Trudeau in the back and doing their bothsider bullshit like they did with Clinton and even with Obama. If they actually did their fucking job and reported on what a Levantine bastard Scheer really is, instead of bloviating about every Dijon nothingburger or INDIAGHAZI!!!! squirrel the con PR factory dumps on their desk, the cons' numbers would be in the toilet.
If anything, this is an indictment of the press and should be a wake-up call for them considering what just happened in Florida. You don't play nice with these people. You expose them and call them out repeatedly for the "good Germans" they are.
@anon 1:38 -- I think UU means the breakdown of the significance of the various "why do you think Trudeau sucks" percentage points among, well, people who think Trudeau sucks. Like our latest purity pony below who's willing to sell out Canada to the Americans and homegrown right-wing terrorists because "both parties are the same!!!"
DeleteThe media wants a horse race. Otherwise they wouldn't be carrying water for Scheer and ignoring what should be the scandal of the century: the takeover by the mainstream Conservative party by racist thugs and Internet trolls.
The Liberals are indeed ahead, but not by much, and it's all due to how the headlines are being manipulated by interested parties. Note that the Reid poll asks about "Trudeau's behaviour towards women in 2000" -- what "women," plural? One vague op-ed that she had no control over and probably forgot about from 20 years ago until Linda Tripp Kinsella fished a wrinkled newspaper out of the trash? And what exactly does "PM's lifestyle" mean anyway? Another dog-whistle implying he has something more going on than brunch with that gentleman from Queer Eye for the Straight Guy?
It's not so much the numbers that are BS but the reasons behind the statistics. They're hammering Trudeau over manufactured outrage and giving that racist SOB a pass. I wouldn't be surprised if, sooner or later, Trudeau faces an inquiry over the deaths of Seth Rich and Vince Foster.
Basically on-line polls are extremely unreliable. I don't care who they show is ahead. Only if they show a significant lead would they even, marginally, be worth believing.
DeleteUU
Hi UU...I agree that online polls can be unreliable but both the Angus Reid and Abacus poll seem to suggest the same. A lot of Canadians are either racists or letting the Cons scare them with the border issue. The Liberals, the NDP, and other progressives need to be a lot more aggressive and make Sure all Canadians understand the dirty game the Cons are playing...
DeleteHi Jackie...thanks for those wise words on polls, that all should bear in mind. I don't trust most polls myself since I have never been called for my opinion, and neither have any of my friends. So I don't think that those who use mobiles are properly taken into account which says to me that the opinions of younger Canadians are not being recorded. I also agree with you that this deplorable state of affairs should be a wake-up call for our shabby Con media. They are not explaining anything properly, and they are letting the Cons get away with murder...
DeleteThis comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
ReplyDeleteThis comment was deleted because it reeked of Con. As I've told you filthy creatures and toxic Trudeau haters before, if you want to be published clean up your language, and please take a bath...
DeleteCanada looks just as schizophrenic as the USA. The prairies might as well be called Confederate Canada or Vichy Canada. Is "None is Too Many" going to be the cons' campaign slogan? Or will Andy just go for the throat and blurt out "Segregation now, segregation forever" or "We must secure a future for the old-stock Canadian people" at a hate rally sponsored by Rebel Media?
ReplyDeleteA pox on the media too for manufacturing this horse race narrative. They won't be happy until the ConAnon leopards start going for their faces just like the rabid cultists in Florida. They carried water for the toothless garbage people and their spray-tan Manson for three years because they thought it'd be good for ratings. Why the equivalent of the bothsiders at Corporate News Network would be so craven or so stupid in Canada is anybody's guess.
I agree with you, progressives have been far too easy on the Cons. It’s tome to go after them as they go after us. Or at least go after the Liberals, because for some strange reason they never seem to after the NDP. Wonder why that is?
ReplyDeleteI voted Liberal in the last federal election but they're not getting my vote this time. No electoral reform was one thing but apparently now we're in the oil business. The Justin Trudeau Memorial TransMountain pipeline. All this talk of the environment and social license, what a joke! Trudeau is such a bitumen pimp he'd make Harper blush.
ReplyDeleteSo you'd throw innocent people under the bus and have Canada capitulate to Trump because you didn't get literally everything you want? Wow. Another purity pony who got us into where we are now with the orange fascist, because "Hillary is rich" and "Obama didn't push for single-payer" and "BERNIE WOULD HAVE WON!" You're right Simon: Canada is in trouble and it scares me.
DeleteThrowing people under the bus? The ones being thrown under the bus are my grandchildren's generation and the ones that follow. Climate change is real. We have a huge catastrophe on our hands and we have to do something about it yesterday.
Delete@JackieBlue
DeleteWow, how dare someone think for themselves and vote differently because they aren’t happy with Mr. Trudeau
You’re concerned with not getting your own way...look in the mirror
No one is saying climate change isn't real. He is doing something about it: What he can. A whole bunch of other pipeline projects got cancelled, he implemented a carbon tax and he said that the tar sands were going to be phased out. Notley even wanted the pipeline. What's your other alternative? This was a necessary evil compromise that saved the country from a massive lawsuit by the company. Not to mention the economy: you guys are in for a really rough ride thanks to us and he had to do what he could to save jobs at a very precarious time for the country if not the world. This is called pragmatism and it's something that seems to be in short supply these days.
DeleteYou don't like his environmental record or the elections file? What about the child tax credits or the legalization of cannabis or companies from all over the world looking to Canada to create jobs as the U.S. heads precipitously in decline? Do you not care about the children and grandchildren of refugees? Single parents and LGBT people and families? His willingness to stand up to regressives about their policies toward women? His fuddle-duddle to Donald Trump when it came time to respond to the idiotic tariffs?
And no, I am not willing to throw Canada under the bus any more than I was willing to throw the U.S. under the bus over things I was disappointed in about Obama or Hillary. It's called realpolitik and I'm tired of people not seeing the bigger picture. Throwing the baby out with the bathwater is what got us to this point. And when I say "throwing people under the bus" I mean the 36 million Canadians who'd basically end up as de facto colonial subjects of Washington (Moscow on the Potomac) if the Tories win the election. In particular, the same vulnerable minorities who Scheer is using Trumpist bigotry to target to appease his white nationalist base.
That's what I'm talking about. REALITY. He may not be perfect but he's infinitely better than what else you'd get. And sorry if I am upset by seeing history threatening to repeat itself in Canada in 2019 like what happened in America in 2016.
Yes, that annoys me too. I've always voted on the left, and in my jurisdictions, this time I've won, municipally, on the national level (I mean Québec) and federally. I have absolutely nothing to to with the Cons or La Meute, on the contrary. The pipeline issue is very important, as is environmental transition in general.
DeleteIt isn't only the far left that can be sectarian (see Life of Brian). The Blairites are slandering Corbyn of all people as a racist.
No, of course I don't think Trudeau is the same as the racist Cons, nor do I think he is a racist in the slightest. He is a decent person, but he is certainly not someone who will challenge the rule of the 1%.
hi anon@1:49 PM... I don't believe you voted for the Liberals last time. I think you're just a another Con troll trying to divide the progressive vote. How much does that old Rebel Hamish Marshall pay you, a quarter a day? For if you care about the environment, and claim you won't vote for Trudeau because of his support for a pipeline, how would electing Scheer make things any better? Duh...
DeleteHi Jackie...yes, my thoughts exactly:
DeleteThat's what I'm talking about. REALITY. He may not be perfect but he's infinitely better than what else you'd get. And sorry if I am upset by seeing history threatening to repeat itself in Canada in 2019 like what happened in America in 2016.
I have no time for one-issue voters, the world is a far more complex place, and all their little tantrums would do is deliver us into the hands of the Con wolves who would be ten times worse on every single issue. We saw what happened in the U.S. when some precious snowflakes decided that Hillary Clinton was worse than Donald Trump. Now that Trump is in power I hope they are proud of themselves...
hi Lagatta...the Corbyn Labour party case is a good example of the left that sometimes seems to enjoy fighting itself more than it does the real enemy. Theresa May's Cons are ripe for the picking, but Labour is otherwise occupied arguing among themselves when Corbyn is anti-semitic. As I've said before, progressives are a coalition of people with slightly different views on many things, but unless we can forget our petty squabbles and unite in a common cause, we shall be defeated over and over again....
DeleteNo Canadian Prime has ever fought bigotry as hard as Justin Trudeau has, and like you Simon I believe his decency will win out in the end. If Scheer uses racism to win the election, he would be no better than Trump, and the Canada we know would be as dead as Ford’s Ontario.
ReplyDeleteOntario isn't dead it's back on the map! I'm from Quebec and havn't been there in years yet this weekend I'm packing up the wife and kids to check out Niagara Falls. It should be a blast!
DeleteHi anon@2:00 PM...I didn't vote for Justin Trudeau, but the reason I support him now is because I have been impressed by his basic decency, and the way he has challenged misogynists, homophobes, and other bigots. And every time I see hogs like Trump and Ford grunting away on TV, I give thanks for our not perfect, but totally decent prime minister...
DeleteBTW: The Guardian has two excellent pieces today about how liberals and progressives have had ENOUGH of the media and their false equivocation in the interest of "balance" that only ends up benefiting the right-wing. The media's response? "I DON'T REALLY CARE, DO U?"
ReplyDeletehttps://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/aug/03/far-right-bbc-lbc-itv-media
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/aug/02/bbc-climate-change-deniers-balance
The CBC should take note that this is exactly what they're doing when they do jumping-jacks about whether Trudeau's socks were offensive, while displaying unacceptable silence about Scheer and his jackbooted thugs. In the war between the tan suit and the brown shirts, they end up supporting the brown shirts.
Oh no, Justin cupped the cheeks (as in, face) of a woman who wouldn't stop crying because he rebuffed her advances at a rock concert, but crickets about Scheer elevating a protégé MP who literally referred to women as "feminazis." More breaking squirrel news! "Justin likes to drink soda, and the Bronfman girls were involved in a Hollywood sex cult!" What's that got to do with Justin? "Nothing, but it makes for good copy and SEO to link Justin Trudeau to a Hollywood sex cult." Followed by a tasteless "from the vault" retrospective on Maggie and the 'Stones. Uh, leaving aside the fact that that's basically QAnon bullshit, can we talk about Scheer and La Meute? Scheer and the Northern Alliance? "NO, THAT WOULD BE BIASED (and not good for ratings)."
CBC Radio asks Rachel Harder to talk about why "conservative feminism" isn't the contradiction of the century, in a debate with Maryam Monsef. And hammers Monsef about ISLAM ISLAM ISLAM while ignoring Harder's hardline Christianity. Speaking of "that part of the world" (dog-whistle alert): "Justin went to India and did a foreign 'peoplekind' dance!" Who cares? Can we talk about Scheer and Brexit? Rebel Media getting cash from the Mercers to run two-minute hate videos targeting Muslims? What the hell is Harper doing in Iran or sitting down with Larry Kudlow to undermine NAFTA? "He's a private citizen! Justin took a selfie with a terrorist!" Actually, no he didn't, and you guys got catfished by Modi's nationalistic hatred of Sikhs, but what you really should be asking is WHY DID ANDREW TAKE A SELFIE WITH A NAZI?
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
"We're just asking the questions!" Yeah, right. Like their American cousins "asked the questions" about Trump's mafia network instead of devoting hours and hours of coverage to Hillary's emails and rehashing the Lewinsky trial. Shame on them. They've devolved to a level that makes eTalk, Entertainment Tonight or ESPN look like hard-hitting investigative journalism. The Vince McMahonization of the Western fourth estate.
Go for it, Jackie! You're amazing!
DeleteKeep up the good work!
UU
Hi Jackie...I have to second what UU said. The breadth of your knowledge is amazing, and I am so grateful that you share it with us on this humble blog...
DeleteSimon, I'd like to add one little point. It is important for all of us to display the actual photo that shows that "lone Black man" in context as part of a group, probably a family group. A prefectly normal human being fleeing danger or seeking a better life. And here in Québec at least, a retrospective shows that the majority of those border crossers have found just that here. Trudeau was right to welcome them.
ReplyDeleteSome rightwing ijut here (think it was François Legault, the leader of the CAC), said we should be worried about "our own" elderly people who need care, not migrants. Whom the fuck does he think will be doing the hands-on care? And many of their children are becoming healthcare professionals.
Hi lagatta...I was going to include that other photo that shows that the guy in the Con ad wasn't alone or heading for the hole in the fence. He was accompanied by his family and heading for a Canadian border post. In the end I didn't use it because my post was getting a bit long. But trust me, I will use it again, for it so clearly shows how far those filthy racist Cons will go to distort reality and try to scare Canadians for crass political purposes...
DeleteScheer and his Cons who are devoid of any credible policy continue to follow the Trump path to victory minus the rallies for the brain dead followers. A steady, nauseating drip of propaganda. Divide then conquer is their only hope and if it destroys the country, well, so be it. Party over country is their mantra and if Canadians fall for their bullshit then we are no better than the clown show we are witnessing to our south.
ReplyDeleteIt's time to take off the gloves JT and meet this Con scum head-on.
JD
Hi JD...I agree with you, Scheer and his wretched gang are more like treasonous Trumplings every day. And to make matters worse now we also have the political ape Doug Ford trying to imitate Trump as well. Our country is turning into a swamp, and progressives need to unite, take the off the gloves, and hammer the Cons, before they drown us all in their excrement...
DeleteHi everybody...I went to publish about five comments from jrkrideau,Steve, and two anons and hit the delete button by mistake. 🙄 I promise to wake up before I visit the comment page in future. Sorry again.
ReplyDeleteMy comment is that the real biggest issue facing Canada is affordable housing, both to buy and rent.
ReplyDeleteHi Simon, while those numbers are depressing, there is still a lot of hope. Considering the pounding that the Liberals have taken from the con media they are still ahead and within striking distance of another majority government. Also, Canadians have a tendency to stake out really stupid positions and then wise up to the fact that the cons (or PQ) are playing them for fools. Look at the Charter of Values, niqab debate, and Omar Khadr. No doubt the cons will overplay this and by the time Canadians are sick of it, the Liberals will have the situation under control. The Liberals can’t hit too hard on this quite yet with the way the news becomes forgotten so quickly so it’s best to put Blair’s cop face on it, plug away, and fix it in time for 2019.
ReplyDeleteHi: Fat fingered Simon
ReplyDeleteA short version of my deleted comments... Check out the Cons official web site if you dare https://www.conservative.ca/ It contains nothing but Rebel Media style attack adds and sign up if you agree so they can fine tune the poison to your specific taste. Although its typical for a win - loose mentality it masks a vulnerability. The Cons are an amalgamation of supporters who range from hard core zealots to old school conservatives mainly concerned about the overreach of governments. Any specific policy statements on hot buttons such as immigration ,climate change, etc. would either be not severe enough or too severe depending on the audience. Hence attack, shoot from the underbrush and pray that if they can only get in power they will sow so much divisiveness that the majority will want an authoritarian 'rule of their law' style of government to squash the uprisings they fostered.
RT
Hi RT...i can’t help it if my fingers are so yuuuuuge. Nobody has ever complained about them before. 😎 Seriously though I am sorry about deleting your comment by mistake. And I agree with what you are saying. The Cons spray hate in every direction, then harvest the e-mail addresses of those who reply, so they can better target them in the future. It’s what Hamish Marshall did at the Rebel, with the only difference being that then he sowed hate for money and now he is doing it for money AND votes....
DeleteThumbs up and kudos to Jackie Blue and Simon for their many insightful observations. Keep up the good fight.
ReplyDeleteCheers
AR
Hi AR....thanks a lot. I’m just doing what I have always done, but Jackie really is amazing. So amazing I’m sorry to report, that the Cons who visit this blog are far more scared of her than they are of yours truly...😿
DeleteHey Simon: Antifa vs. Proud Boys clash in Portland today. It's too bad pictures don't embed in Blogger comments, but I thought you should see this photo of the leaders of the master race:
ReplyDeletehttp://pbs.twimg.com/media/DjxaQJcU4AU_AgH.jpg
I don't EVER fucking want to hear another complaint from the right-wing about Trudeau playing "dress-up" again. Next time they start up about India (which was traditional cultural garb and not a "costume"), or what he and the kids go as this Halloween... shove THIS right back in their faces.
Gavin McInnes and his milk-chugging Proud Boy Scheer can go crawl right back into whatever basement they came from. These are their fellow travelers right here.
Hi Jackie...OMG can it fly or does it just lay eggs? Honestly, those alt right scum bags really are losers. Although that’s not to say he isn’t a threat, because if I saw him coming down the street, I might die laughing... 😉
DeleteThanks for this Simon and Jackie Blue. I am always happy to stumble on like minded people who are outraged with this growing racist attitude in our country.
ReplyDeleteHi Beijing....How nice to hear from you, and thank you for your encouragement. I really do need it because the way so many Canadians are acting like racists is totally depressing. The Liberal government needs to do a much better job of explains the situation, and progressives should be going after those racist Cons as if there was no tomorrow. Because if those bestial Cons are able to use racism to win the next election there will be no tomorrow for Canada as far as I’m concerned...
ReplyDeleteIT is looking like a nightmarish situation across the country, as the creepy Kenney lying his way to the top, the racist nationalist CAQ about to be elected here and the vile Ford ripping away our friends in Ontario.
ReplyDeleteBut one hope remains, that the human and compassionate Justin Trudeau move forward again to complete his mandate. And with voter cards being allowed as ID (as they always were and always should have been) and the First Nations finally being recognized, and Trans rights being recognized, and Canada growing, truly, from the heart out, we can put an end to Schmeagol once and for all, and kick those filthy Cons back to the darkness whence they came...