I've been having so much fun enjoying the dying days of summer that I haven't spent much time in my political observatory, scanning the stars, and trying to figure out where this country is going.
And the polls haven't helped since they have been all over the place.
First the Liberals were ahead, then another poll suggested the Cons had taken the lead, only to have yet another poll put the Liberals on top again.
But now another poll is out, and what it suggests couldn't be more disturbing.
For this Ekos poll prepared for the Canadian Press suggests the Justin Trudeau's Liberals and Andrew Scheer's Cons are statistically tied.
A new poll conducted by Ekos Research and commissioned for The Canadian Press suggests the Liberals find themselves statistically tied with a resurgent Conservative Opposition.
The Ekos-Canadian Press poll, which puts the Liberals at 34 per cent, the Conservatives at 33 per cent and the NDP at 15 per cent, surveyed 4,839 people during the last two weeks of September, and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 1.4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Which is scary enough.
But it's not the numbers that I find troubling, it's the implications.
And not just the obvious one: the question of what might happen if Jagmeet Singh steals some seats from the Liberals, splits the vote, and ends up electing the Cons.
As much as I like Singh I don't think that's going to happen, for reasons I'll explain in another post.
But what troubles me is how the Cons might have closed the gap, if the Liberal's tax proposals are not responsible.
"Given the vehemence of the initial response, some have speculated that the governing Liberals are being hurt by these proposals. In our view, this does not appear to be the case," Ekos said.
"While it is the case that the Liberals are in a significantly weaker position than they were a year ago, the decline occurred over the spring, not the summer."
For when I look at what happened in the late winter and spring, I see refugees pouring over the border...
And Cons like Kellie Leitch, Michelle Rempel and others playing the bigot or the Trump card...
And when you add that to this:
What is perhaps most interesting is the emerging class divisions between the two parties. The Liberals lead handily with the middle class while the Conservatives are finding their support increasingly concentrated in Canada’s working class. Indeed, it appears that the Conservative Party is no longer the party of the upper class, but rather the party of the working class. These shifts are eerily reflective of the trends that led to Donald Trump’s win.
You end up with something that looks a lot like a Trump party...
For let's be clear, racism is the most powerful force in the world today, bigger than the economy, bigger than even climate change.
It is upending governments in Britain, France, and Germany. It's the main reason Donald Trump is president.
And anyone who thinks that we won't be affected is living in a fantasy world.
It's time for progressives to stop playing silly games, and fighting each other instead of the real enemy. Or dreaming of things that will never happen.
It's time to take on the Trump Cons and their monstrous leader.
Before they destroy this country...
this is all deep state bull hockey. fact is the 1$ spend to make issues
ReplyDeletethat make them look superhuman/
we have been living with stupid Americans for generations, and we have not slowed down.
hi Steve...I don't think we have ever had to deal with an American government like Donald Trump's crazed regime. And it should be clear that his poison is slowly but surely leaking into Canada. And we need to stand up for our values, or we will lose our country...
DeleteSimon, Singh is an issue as vote spoiler but ekos is even worse than Forum. They hyped a resurgent Harper after poor Alan Kurdi washed ashore. By the end of the campaign, he had the liberals at 35-33, very similar to 34-33. If you look at his graph, he's also had these similar numbers for months. I don't doubt there is a softening up but it's probably a drop of 43 to 38 or 39. Ipsos is run by a con and has it 39-32 like Nanos. I'm also interested in Abacus, Campaign Research, and Mainstreet. The Liberals are getting soft and complacent on the messaging front so hopefully they will smarten up there.
ReplyDeletehi anon...I agree with you that Ekos is just another poll, and that in the poll of polls Trudeau is still ahead. But the fact that a crazed band like the Cons could even be in contention is a very bad sign. I'll deal with Singh some other time, but one thing is clear right now. Progressives have to stop bringing a spoon to a knife fight, and start hitting the Cons where it hurts...
DeleteFuddle-duddle NO! Ford Nation taken nationwide? Trump of the Will? The Tru North falling for False News? Say it ain't so!
ReplyDeleteJimmy Carter, who recently celebrated his 93rd birthday and is a longtime friend of the Trudeau family (one of Pierre's pallbearers), got turfed after one term for being too nice of a guy. Too good for this world. We're all living with the destructive legacy of Reaganomics today. "I refuse to believe," as Luke Skywalker says. But it's looking like the empire is finally going to strike back.
If the poison mindset of the U.S. has indeed infiltrated over the border, then it won't be for anything wrong that Trudeau did. Like Carter, he tried to make Canada into a "Habitat for Humanity." Which means, if he ends up with a minority government in 2019 or (shudder) as Opposition Leader to the Canadian Psycho, it'll be for doing the right thing -- in a country that was long thought to be "polite," but which is proving itself to be "Just Not Ready."
Great job, America. "Never stop winning, you're going to get so tired of winning." You "won" Vietnam by flooding them with rapacious "disaster capitalism." You "won" the Civil War by using the Southern Strategy to make the Covfeferates rise again -- ironically, by way of an uncouth Yankee from Noo Yawk. Now you "won" the war of 1812 by turning Care Bear Canada into a den of hate. Go stand proudly for your stupid, racist drinking anthem and stick your patriotic flagpole where the sunny ways don't shine.
"It is no measure of health to be well-adjusted to a sick society." -Jiddu Krishnamurti
hi anon...it's hard to know what is going on, after all it still feels like summer, and we're still two years away from an election. But I do fear that Justin Trudeau is being a little too nice, like Jimmy Carter was, and needs to put on a pair of steel toed boots, and kick the Cons you know where. And yes, unfortunately Trump's influence is leaking into Canada, but hopefully we can stop it before it poisons us all...
DeleteCanadians have a tendency to be complacent until they can't afford to be any longer. Scheer may or may not have picked up some support from Rebel type bigots, but as Graves points out he is already rusting. It will come down to Trudeau versus Scheer and I haven't the slightest doubt who will come out on top.
ReplyDeletehi anon...I am encouraged by your optimism, and you're definitely right about the complacency of Canadians. I believe there are reasons to be concerned, how could there not be with Trump right next door. But despite the best efforts of the Con media, Scheer will be exposed as the film flam man he is, and the complacent Canadians will get off their asses and help bury him and his Cons...
DeleteWatch the flat-foreheaded among the slugs flock to the guys whose purpose in political life is to keep them powerless losers.
ReplyDeleteAnother libertarian wet-dream in the process of fulfillment.
How should we choose? There are so many to thank this time. If we're going to deal with racism, we should stop tolerating tribalism in all its forms. But first we'd have to stop promoting it.
hi John...Trump is a force that is affecting politics all over the world, so we can hardly expect that his nefarious influence will not affect those who live next door. And I've seen how much harm his style of racism or xenophobia is doing in Britain and Europe.
DeleteAnd progressives need to take their blinkers off and get ready to fight like harder than they ever have before, or they will end up living in a country they don't recognize...
Don't forget the Khadr deal and how the Cons made a big deal out of that. I'm sure that must have won them a few mouth breathing fans. I hate what Scheer and his racist gang are doing to this country.
ReplyDeleteBlame Trump too. The cons have latched onto Trumpsucking hate media like Fox, Rebel, Infowars etc. Pierre only had to deal with Nixon in a time when there was no Internet. Justin is facing down Orange Hitler making clones of himself all over his own country, and now even on the other side of the border like Mickey Mouse's broomsticks in Fantasia. Include the multiplicative effect of social media being ubiquitous in everyone's life and Russian/American psyops effectively brainwashing the public en masse and you're looking at a recipe for disaster. Scheer would have no chance if it wasn't for Trump, American nutcase media, and the fact that the Internet exists.
DeleteToo bad you guys can't implement some kind of Canada-first policy for the Cancon media requirements that blots out Fox News and its ilk (nfowars, Breitbart, etc.) from cable systems and the Internet. You guys really need to muscle up your hate speech laws too, whether the "frozen peaches" apologists like it or not.
hi anon 5:32 pm...yes, I should have mentioned the Khadr deal too. I was planning to do so but I got hung up doing something else, ran out of blogging time, and simply forgot. But Scheer has started finding excuses to bring up the Khadr deal again, and I will get back to exposing his hypocrisy soon...
Deletehi anon 6:54 pm... I do blame Trump for influencing the Cons and hate rags like the Rebel. It's incredible how our would be Trumpkins are walking around on their hind legs trying to imitate the American Napoleon. And you're right, we are allowing ourselves to be swamped by the alt-right media, and we do need to muscle up our hate speech laws too...
Delete"The Liberals lead handily with the middle class while the Conservatives are finding their support increasingly concentrated in Canada’s working class. Indeed, it appears that the Conservative Party is no longer the party of the upper class, but rather the party of the working class." Well put, Simon. You're probably right. The question that goes unasked and unanswered was, if the Conservatives are no longer the party of the upper class, who is? It sure as Hell isn't the Greens and I doubt that Jagmeet is particularly attractive, so, by process of elimination there can be just one "party of the upper class."
ReplyDeleteThey've seen Trudeau. They know how reliably neoliberal he is. The Tories are no longer convincing and, so, Trudeau is their boy. As the Commish of the Environment declared this week, when it comes to the greatest threat facing Canada and our next couple of generations, Tex Trudeau is "All Hat and No Cattle."
Simon, I'm sure you will angrily denounce this as hatred of Justin. It's not. It's love of country and love for my children and theirs. Is that unreasonable?
hi Mound...no I will not get angry, even though you are an old Trudeau hater who has suggested that Justin be raped in prison. Your hatred is pathological, and your homophobia absolutely vile. But I have resigned myself to the reality that you can't teach old dogs new tricks so let's set that aside, and hope that in the years you have left you can become a better person.
DeleteSo let me just say that your comment betrays your binary mind, and is simplistic in the extreme, and rooted in the vanishing past.
So while the liberals are the party of the middle class and of some members of the upper class, so are the Cons. The world is not as black and white as you think, and when it comes to such things as climate change Trudeau is not the only one to blame.
You seem to look for scapegoats like ancient cultures looked for tiny totem poles to dance around and then throw in the fire. Don't be so primitive. The responsibility for the failure to advance the cause of climate change in this country must be shared by all those, especially those of your generation, who have grown fat and greedy, stuffing the porky into their gaping mouths, and doing nothing to fight the problem starting when it might have made the biggest difference, about forty years ago. So don't sound so sanctimonious, or preach from your dilapidated perch, because you only sound ridiculous. Also, as a highly educated person, what worries me about the "new" Cons and the working class has more to do with levels of education than it does with the amount of money in their pockets. As you must know, one of the big differentiators between support for Trump and Clinton was the level of education of their supporters. So that is something we should all worry about. Finally being progressive also means standing up for the rights of women and gay people and other oppressed minorities, which is strikingly absent from your sterile writing. Try and work on that will you? Be a good boy, and have a nice day...
I suspect it is a matter of soundbytes- the Cons and Repubs have mastered the art of short slogans- easy enough to do when patriotism, religion and freedom all are entrenched in the N. American pysche, and short slogans are repeated over and over again for years. We tend to remember "Make America Great Again" "Guns Don't Kill. People Kill" "Islam bad, Christianity good" "Abortion is murder" and monikers like "Prolife" "Alternative Facts" "Libtards"which are anything but accurate, but tend to stick in the minds of the right wing and create critical thinking points.
ReplyDeletehi Filcher...I agree with you, there can be no doubt that Trump lizard brain was able to come up with very effective slogans that cut through the clutter of our information overload society, and moved people like our side did not. It's no good writing long treatises to try to reason with the masses when they don't have the time or the attention spans to take it in. We need to be able to reach people with powerful punchy messages that can move them and inspire them to take action, and stop thinking that simplicity means stupid. I hope I can make some videos soon to show you what I mean, and help inspire others to do the same...
Delete