In my last post I warned that the niqab issue has boosted Stephen Harper's fortunes.
And I have also been warning for weeks what might happen if the progressive parties kept attacking each other instead of joining forces to save our Canada.
And we couldn't rise to the challenge of making that our only cause. And that if we couldn't go big we might as well go home.
Well if this poll is true, we could already be on the verge of disaster.
With less than a month to go in the campaign, and heading into the first of three leaders debates, the Tories have moved ahead of their rivals with the support of 35.4 per cent of voters, according to the Ekos poll conducted for Montreal’s La Presse newspaper.
Justin Trudeau and the Liberals have 26.3 per cent support and the NDP has the backing of 24.5 per cent of respondents. The poll questioned 2,343 people between Sept. 17 and Sept. 22 and is considered accurate to within two percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
“If (the Conservatives) keep those numbers up they’re very close to a majority — if not there already,” said pollster Frank Graves. “The numbers are about as good as we had for the final weekend of polling (in the 2011 election) when they achieved their majority.”
Luckily this is just one poll, and this isn't the last weekend of the campaign. We have more than enough time to change the result.
And this is still good news.
The Ekos survey showed overwhelming support among respondents who considered themselves Liberal or NDP supporters for a coalition rather than having to endure another federal government led by Harper’s Tories.
Now is the time to ignore the idiot bloggers who keep telling us the battle is won, the cat is in the bag, and we can relax.
It isn't and we can't.
Now more than ever it's time to call off the rabid partisans who are destroying our own cause. Denounce them and attack them as hard as we can.
Now is the time to put our country before our parties.
And unite to save our Canada before it's too late...
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If today's polls are remotely correct, the country is finished.
ReplyDeleteWhen you say - unite to save our Canada before it's too late...
... what do you suggest?
In my humble view, it's going to take some kind of mass event, because the country - i.e. the 70% which does not support the party in power, has been uniting to form a voice for about the last 4 years.
I can't see what else can be done because everyone I know is working at their local level to change the result. From donating to working on campaigns to blogging. If the Canadian voting public wishes to be an ostrich with its head in the ground or perhaps up its ass, then we're destined to become a true banana republic, otherwise known as the 51st State.
Your opinion?
Anonymous-A
hi Anonymous-A...there is no reason to panic or despair. The poll could be wrong, and even if it is right there is still time to change the result. In fact, this could be the wake up call we need. As for what we can do, I'll discuss that over the course of the next few days. But it begins and ends with creating a movement rather than sitting back and trusting the parties to do the right thing. As I said in my post, and so many times before, it's time to go big or go home...
ReplyDeleteOne poll says Harper could win a majority another says he's in third place. The polls don't seem to be a good gage of what's happening in the election. While it's important to remain vigilant, and work toward getting Harper out, my guess is that the reality is very different from what the polls say.
ReplyDeletehi Pamela...I usually have more confidence in EKOS than I do in other polls, but this one is so out of whack with the others I think it must be an outlier. We'll see in a few more days. But for now I wouldn't worry...
DeleteAfter looking at Nanos , I went to 308 and checked all the other Sept. polls. The Ekos result looks like an anomaly to me ( remember Mainstreet ).
ReplyDeleteEver poll finishes weaslywordish - correct 19 times out of 20. Polling firms expect an outlier once out of every 20 tries.
hi rumleyfips...yes I too believe that this poll is out of whack. The rise is too sudden and too big. So I'm going to wait a few days before panicking, and applying for asylum in Sweden or Tahiti...
DeleteErrr, isn't Tahiti a French TOM? It might be faster and cheaper to head to St Pierre et Miquelon. Mind, the cllimate is not as nice.
DeleteHey Simon: Unfortunately, I think this is the second EKOS poll, which I trust more than most of the other polls, that had shown the Cons ahead, albeit not as much as this latest one. As I have said before, this is what will happen if the Libs and NDP partisans keep attacking each other while the rest of us ABC types keep shaking our heads. Finally, we saw Trudeau come out clearly this week that he would not support a Harper minority, however, it might be a little too late (Mulcair had said months ago that he would work with the Liberals and again repeated this week that he would not support a Harper minority as he had said before).
ReplyDeleteI think Mulcair/NDP has committed some unforced errors (e.g., not being clear on canning the F35s, not saying that they will be alright with running a small deficit if needed, even though they prefer to balance the budget). They are being over cautious and it is hurting them. Then there is Trudeau and the Liberals who seem intent on attacking Mulcair on things like the Clarity Act, a non issue even in Quebec, which could cause the NDP to lose more votes in Quebec and elsewhere without those votes flowing to the Liberals (in Quebec, the lost NDP votes will more likely go to the BQ while in the rest of Canada, they will likely go back to Harper as these were the votes that were against the Liberals in the first place or they would not have gone to the NDP). If Harper picks up more seats in QC, we are done.
I was going to vote for the Liberal candidate in my riding as the Liberals have more chances of beating the Cons incumbent than the NDP. If Harper is going to win another majority, I am going to vote for the Green candidate who has even a lower chance of beating anyone. At least, Liz May had announced that she would not be attacking either Trudeau or Mulcair tonight as it is Harper that is the problem.
Poll analysis by Threehundredeight does show the Cons with a tiny lead, but not near a majority. Less than 3 points makes up the spread between the three main parties.
ReplyDeleteIt's still depressing as all get-out that Harper has this level of support, and makes be both deeply disappointed and quite afraid of my fellow Canadians.
Are we really this stupid, this scared, this callous? What has happened to the people of Canada?
http://www.cbc.ca/news2/interactives/poll-tracker/2015/index.html
hi Noah....yes it is depressing that Harper's support is so strong, but it may one be his base coming home. And it's not in good shape, so the numbers could change. Let's just see what happens in the next few days, and hope that the NDP and the Liberals can attack the Cons more forcefully than they have so far....
DeleteHarper has in the past few days tossed two dead cats on the table to change the channel, as advised in the past by his Wizard of Oz (citizenship swearing ins and Syrian refugee security checks). Both are working. And the answer is strategic voting - as Leadnow recommends for 31 ridings where the Harper Conservative MP is vulnerable to only small shifts in votes on October 19.
ReplyDeletehi Curiosity Cat...yes Lynton Crosby has been able to maximize fears about being flooded by refugees like Europe. The television pictures have worked in his favour, but things are settling down and I don't think Harper will be able to use it much longer. In the end it will come down to the economy and his record, and as we know that's very thin gruel. As for strategic voting I'm all in favour of that, but it does have some problems. And if either Trudeau or Mulcair breaks away from the pacK I don't think it will be needed as the large number of so-called promiscuous voters will flock to whoever looks best equipped to beat Harper. However, I should also say if the logjam isn't broken that will leave us in a desperate situation Vote splitting could be a factor, and we're going to have to consult polls and a ouija board... ;)
DeleteFind the voting record for the MP in your area. Very cool!
ReplyDeletehttps://www.votes.mp/
eg.
Stephen Harper
https://www.votes.mp/#/profile/132
http://www.nationalobserver.com/2015/09/24/news/information-how-mps-vote-was-hard-find-harvard-student-and-his-bro-just-changed
hi David...thanks for that. All information is appreciated. I have a very difficult decision in my riding, but at least the Con won't win...
Deletehttp://ipolitics.ca/2015/09/23/strategic-voting-group-releases-new-riding-polls-but-hard-data-remains-elusive/
ReplyDeletePlanning to vote strategically? Be careful what you believe about local polls.
https://twitter.com/ChrisWalkerCBC/status/647065300068925440
Enter the RCMP - They're finally now charging a dead(?) Canadian "terrorist" from Calgary in absentia. Timing is everything!
ReplyDeleteSee? That is just the beginning of what I see coming. Look for the RCMP to announce more and more of these distractions in an attempt to scare Canadians into voting Con.
Deletehi UU4077...yeah I saw that, and it is a bit suspicious, but they'll have to do far more than that if they are going to move any votes. Nothing less than a real terrorist attack will do that. But needless to say we won't be safe until we cast out ballots. I got my voting cards today so I'm feeling pretty good...
DeleteOh - and the OPP charged Lougheed today regarding Sudbury by-election "scandal". While this is provincial, Wynne has been involved in Trudeau's campaign.
ReplyDeleteHmmm ... 2 police investigations and charges laid unnecessarily during an election on the day of the French language debates. There's not reason that both of these questionable cases could have waited until after Oct.19th.
hi UU4077...yes I saw that, but again it is a small affair and not much of a scandal as far as I'm concerned. The crazy Ontario PCs can screech like hyenas, but even though Wynne is a Trudeau supporter I don't think it will hurt her or him...
Deleteafter some of the predictions from polling companies, can't really say they have been that accurate. The niqab is an issue for some, but it wont' be what causes people to vote one way or another. there are more pressing issues out there. there maybe the voter who goes back to the Cons over it, but it won't be that many.
ReplyDeleteAs far as voting, there are some blogs out there which advise people which way to vote if they are into voting strategically. In some areas it is the Greens who need to back off because in some riding, Vancouver Island, its been their votes which caused the ndp to loose to the Cons. there is no party which is going to back off at this point in time. too many egos involved and that now includes Elizabeth May.
Its going to be what its going to be and people can just suck it up if they re elect Steve. You sometime times have to live with your actions or inactions, if you don't vote. Just remember, Steve is planning to cut $38 billion out of the health care system, and not one party has really discussed it. If you don't have adequate health care, you don't have anything.
hi e.a.f....yes there are many more pressing issues. But although I ran something from the Canadian Medical Association, I have seen nothing on medicare from the political parties. I know they saving their ammunition but they can't wait much longer. Now is the time to start hitting them, to see if they can break the logjam. Because as I mentioned above one thing I am concerned about is vote splitting....
DeleteThese are two stories about the attack on the poor and the attack on freedom going on in the UK. These moves are the direct result of giving Cameron's Conservatives a majority government. If the Liberals and NDP keep attacking each others plans they are only succeeding in reducing the commitment of their supporters and making Canadians fear their parties. The voters are being literally driven back to voting Conservative as they cannot see a huge difference in policies or they are unsure that either the Liberals or the NDP can even run the government. The debates have been no help whatsoever as the opposition party leaders are both afraid of making a mistake and therefore they say very little about policy not to mention the fact that they spend as much or more time attacking each other and forgetting that Harper is in the debate. Remember each time they attack one another its 2 on 1 with the Conservatives joining in the attack. html http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2015/09/cold-uk-social-housing-emergency-150924095400930. html http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2015/09/fish-chips-freddie-mercury-uk-childcare-150916083043632.html
ReplyDeletehi John...yes Lynton Crosby was able to surprise the British, but only by hitting the same theme over and over again, Labour could not run the economy, and might form a coalition with the dangerous Scottish separatists. At least here thank goodness the separatists are not a threat, so Harper has only the economy. But the opposition parties have to make his real economic record more obvious or Harper may still fool a lot of Canadians...
DeleteIt is astonishing that the Harper Cons have a significant support base at all. Given there odious behavior the last 4 years they should be polling near zero. I can't understand the logic/reasoning of those that still support them. How much destruction does Harper & Co have to do to this country before their supporters realize what is going on?
ReplyDeletehi anon...you ask some good questions, for which I have no answer. But one factor is that the Cons are very much like the Bloc Alberta, and if their massive support in that province ever declined it would be quite a different story. They really have to think more about the whole country and less about themselves...
DeleteHave no fear...Team Trudeau is the party on the move...Little has been said of it, Team Trudeau when the writ was dropped was a distant third place 24% to 27%....NDP was about 32% and Cons 31%...Only one party has shown a slow steady rise..That`s team Trudeau....
ReplyDeleteAnd collapse or weakening of NDP support, guaranteed it will not go to Harper..
Been keeping a close eye on the campaign...Trudeau`s campaign team are firing on all cylinders..Great ads, showing a little youthful skin..
Stay cool....And..
La Presse....nuff said
hi Grant...so you're the cheery optimist of the day? Good we need one ;) But you are right Justin Trudeau does have some wind in his sails. Mulcair seems to have forgotten that being an agent of change means you also have to look like one. And while his policies may move many people, others will judge change by what they see on the screen, and in that regard Justin is winning. Perception is everything...
DeleteAre the Harper Cons Getting Close to Winning A Majority? Maybe.
ReplyDeleteVideo: Rex Murphy: A Close Race (Sept. 24)
http://www.cbc.ca/player/News/TV%20Shows/The%20National/ID/2676156677/
https://frankmag.ca/2015/09/marathon-of-desperation/
ReplyDeletehi anon 1;26 pm...yes I know that EKOS has shown the Cons trending up, but ever so slightly. So I have to believe that something is out of whack. One sees a fair amount of volatility out there so I could quite easily subside. I believe most Canadians haven't really made up their minds, so people could be parking their votes all over the place which would distort the results. I also don't be;eve Harper is going to benefit from any surge in quebec, although BC does worry me a bit. So don't despair and for goodness sake don't vote for someone who can't win. Justin Trudeau does have some momentum, and whichever progressive leader gains an advantage over the other will almost surely benefit from a tsunami of support as people rush to support whoever looks like the person who can beat Harper. That's what happened with the so-called orange wave in Quebec, and it could happen again, but this time right across the country...
ReplyDeleteFresh off the newswire..
ReplyDeletehttp://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/john-ivison-the-conservatives-hold-13-seats-in-atlantic-canada-theyre-in-danger-of-losing-10
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