tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23253782.post672694774057565723..comments2024-03-03T17:01:57.876-05:00Comments on Montreal Simon: How Jason Kenney Made Erin O'Toole Look Like A LoserSimonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15309809679331128837noreply@blogger.comBlogger37125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23253782.post-52006252947937113062021-09-19T20:02:01.319-04:002021-09-19T20:02:01.319-04:00The entry of the Adf into parliament has been toxi...The entry of the Adf into parliament has been toxic, especially for women parliamentarians. The rise of the far right is fairly recent - we are now seeing how it is effecting Germany, even though they have so far not had to form a coalition with Adf as a part of it. But there are legions of countries to look at, cherry picking countries that did not have hardright or far-right parties till recently is not analogous to Canada. If the PPC got 7% of the vote under PR they would have 23 seats. Singh said Bernier shouldn’t be in the debate because his rhetoric is dangerous, but now says 23 seats is fine? All of this is moot in any case, PR will not win a national referendum when it hasn’t won in a provincial referendum because people find it complicated to understand and while most voters would probably be okay with a change to ranked ballots, PR is structural shift that leaves many uneasy, and the lack of discussion about how government is formed does not help - proportional representation does not mean proportional power, there is a reason that voters with PR as their system are as disgruntled as voters without it. There is no perfect system but we could easily make our system more democratic with ranked ballots.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23253782.post-33361074308403908322021-09-19T19:39:25.934-04:002021-09-19T19:39:25.934-04:00Considering the NDP argument against ranked ballot...Considering the NDP argument against ranked ballots is that the Liberals would win supermajorities forever, your comment doesn’t make sense. He doesn’t support PR, NDP would rather have FPTP than ranked ballots, and CPC want to keep FPTP. The opposition demanded a majority on the committee and teamed up to decide on a referendum between PR and FPTP without an option for ranked ballots, because ‘no one wants ranked ballots’ begging the question as to why they we’re afraid to let voters decide. Nathan Cullen threatened that if Trudeau pushed ranked ballots through with his majority that it would be like triggering nuclear war in Canadian politics. So Trudeau dropped it. In retrospect he probably regrets not pushing through ranked ballots, no one could have accused him of breaking his promise, or be able to complain about strategic voting, or claim he loves FPTP. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23253782.post-42553968876355836662021-09-19T14:30:56.591-04:002021-09-19T14:30:56.591-04:00Hi UU….I feel like you do. I used to enjoy reading...Hi UU….I feel like you do. I used to enjoy reading Progressive Blogger, but with toxic Trudeau haters like Kinsella and the Disaffected Lib, I no longer do. It’s like jumping into a pool of Con excrement. But don’t blame Scott, he has done a magnificent job of giving progressives an aggregator to showcase their work but he can’t be expected to judge who is a real progressive and who isn’t. But having said that, if he decided to take Progressive Bloggers down after the election I wouldn’t be too upset…Simonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15309809679331128837noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23253782.post-18765396033911002062021-09-19T14:24:56.754-04:002021-09-19T14:24:56.754-04:00Hi Jackie….Your polling reports are quite amazing,...Hi Jackie….Your polling reports are quite amazing, even if my mood goes up and down with them. 😧 I don’t know what to believe, and I am really pissed off. I live in the Liberal bastion of Trinity Spadina, but I can’t cast a vote for the Liberal candidate because he’s no longer the Liberal candidate after the party removed him for a sexual assault charge that was dropped, but that he “forgot” to tell them. If elected, as he almost certainly will be, he will sit as an independent. So all is not lost, but it really makes me wonder what kind of screening the Liberals have been doing. I think Trudeau was right to call an election, but this kind of sloppy behaviour can kill us….Simonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15309809679331128837noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23253782.post-5749405200194109122021-09-19T00:28:50.115-04:002021-09-19T00:28:50.115-04:00OK so never mind Quito's "ominous" t...OK so never mind Quito's "ominous" tweet -- it's the opposite. Seems to be seeing what Frank is. However they're hedging their bets, saying that early votes for the other parties may be what blunts the majority.<br /><br />May be.<br /><br />Can't confirm until y'all go VOTE RED en masse.<br /><br />BTW, UU: There was an op-ed in the Atlantic today positing just this very question: why do so many "progressives" hate Justin Trudeau? Former LPC staffer calls upon the left-of-centre/anti-Con vote to unite around the Liberals, and stop sabotaging progress in the name of "moral perfection." Which I call jealousy.<br /><br />https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/09/canada-election-justin-trudeau/620110/Jackie Bluehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05221859743498420491noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23253782.post-4851789924672740812021-09-18T22:49:40.117-04:002021-09-18T22:49:40.117-04:00Meanwhile... Franky says relax
https://twitter.co...Meanwhile... Franky says relax<br /><br />https://twitter.com/VoiceOfFranky/status/1439416600080396291<br /><br />In case he deletes it:<br /><br /><i>We are looking at our new results from today . Here is what we will be predicting tomorrow . An LPC win . Take it to the bank . Full forecast and final results tomorrow. I know there are other polls and experts saying different things. We both can't be right.....</i><br /><br />A tweep asks<br /><br /><i>Thanks Frank. LPC win is a VERY safe bet. Grinning face<br /><br />The real question is by how much?<br /><br />A) Reduced minority? 140-150 seats<br />B) Close to pre-election minority? 150-155 seats?<br />C) Increased minority? 155-165 seats?<br />D) Majority - 170+ seats?<br /><br />I'm predicting B. What about you?</i><br /><br />Frank<br /><br /><i>Will be crunching everything tomorrow with my team . Thinking C right now but still have data to come tomorrow . There are some clear trends .</i><br /><br />Franky says relax but Franky also says GO VOTE.Jackie Bluehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05221859743498420491noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23253782.post-79836930333907306652021-09-18T20:52:22.204-04:002021-09-18T20:52:22.204-04:00I don’t get it. There are so many “progressive blo...I don’t get it. There are so many “progressive bloggers” that seem to have a real hatred of Justin Trudeau. Maybe it’s time for Scott to take this site down. The hatred towards Justin has nothing to do with what his government has actually accomplished - in spite of fillibusters that the media do not report on - but seems to be personal. Personally, I was not a supporter of PET back in the day. Now … he did a great job. Enough of the Trudeau Derangement Syndrome. If Progressive Bloggers is really such then prove it. Scott?<br /><br />UUAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23253782.post-74200567718369232262021-09-18T20:28:29.190-04:002021-09-18T20:28:29.190-04:00Another update:
Polly AI still seeing strong Libe...Another update:<br /><br />Polly AI still seeing strong Liberal minority.<br /><br />Fungus Reid's final release has the Cons up by two nationally (per house effect, switch the numbers) but the Liberals still holding strong in Ontario and Atlantic Canada. Tied in Quebec. BC supposedly a two-way DipperCon battle. He claims there are far more advance polls than mail-ins and those are primarily Cons. However Leger and Abacus indicate that the early votes broke relatively even. My guess is that the discrepancy among pollsters indicates a roughly neck-and-neck race among early voters. Nobody can seem to agree so my guess per the house biases is that it breaks even. Possible edge to LPC.<br /><br />Quito making ominous statements on Twitter tonight: "the improbable has become probable". Some in the replies who listened to his live stream are saying he means a Con minority is in the cards, despite his statement from last night that an LPC win is "all but certain". Others saying it's just another hype tweet and what he means is that the PPC gained a seat. Truth is we won't know until tomorrow and his cryptic messages continue to be nerve-wracking until the very end.<br /><br />And again the most important thing is that the red team gets out to VOTE.Jackie Bluehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05221859743498420491noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23253782.post-9859897757321408702021-09-18T18:54:36.893-04:002021-09-18T18:54:36.893-04:00Look how well PR has worked in Israel. 4 elections...Look how well PR has worked in Israel. 4 elections in 2 years.<br /><br />UUAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23253782.post-9304346018814227402021-09-18T17:49:53.201-04:002021-09-18T17:49:53.201-04:00New Abacus, September 18
https://abacusdata.ca/da...New Abacus, September 18<br /><br />https://abacusdata.ca/daily-tracking-poll-election-44-sept-18/<br /><br />ATL: L+27<br />ON: L+7<br />QC: L+4<br /><br />David Coletto: "It's still close [but] the underlying numbers aren't great for the O'Toole/Conservative campaign. Mr. O'Toole's negatives are rising and the desire for change is waning. ... Today 33% have a positive view [of O'Toole] while 48% have a negative view. More have a negative view of Mr. O’Toole than do of Mr. Trudeau."<br /><br />Get out there and VOTE people, VOTE!<br /><br />The only poll that matters is on September 20th.Jackie Bluehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05221859743498420491noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23253782.post-8565641837476351962021-09-18T16:14:36.426-04:002021-09-18T16:14:36.426-04:00One more
You'll never believe what I saw from...One more<br /><br />You'll never believe what I saw from a self-identified "Leftist" on Reddit, with regards to PR vs FPTP vs ranked ballot. <a href="https://old.reddit.com/r/CanadaPolitics/comments/pqffe0/politics_polls_and_punditry_saturday_september_18/hdc1gyn/" rel="nofollow">Quote</a> from u/sheepo39 in Ontario, the important takeaways highlighted:<br /><br /><i><b>I’d rather take the risk with PPC in parliament</b> and get governments that actually match the the vote share that they received along with having more coalition governments. <b>Germany has made it work with the AfD in their parliament</b>, I’m sure we can too.</i><br /><br />This confirms what I've seen elsewhere from the left-authoritarians of orange Twitter, and what I recall from both Trump elections coming from the Bernie brigade. Nazis are welcome in Parliament as long as "democracy" is respected (read: the NDP can pick up seats and pad their pensions by displaying performative outrage in perpetual opposition). However, Liberals are the real Nazis. Max is bad but Trudeau is worse. Trump is bad but Hillary is worse. Trump is bad but Biden/Harris/Buttigieg/"the establishment" is worse. Bush is bad but Gore is worse. Or they're "all the same"... I can't wrap my head around this line of thinking. Dippers are playing with fire.<br /><br />Once again, I seem to recall a lesson from history where the "coalition" thought they could rein in the fascists as long as the centre libs got pwned. And if that didn't work out, people would suffer so badly under the fascists that they'd immediately rally around the far left. And I believe that lesson was also learned -- the hard way -- in <i>Germany.</i><br /><br />Don't let anyone tell you that the far left isn't a symbiotic partner to the far right. They're parasites that thrive off each other.Jackie Bluehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05221859743498420491noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23253782.post-30204770375752948222021-09-18T14:45:44.544-04:002021-09-18T14:45:44.544-04:00Hi Ottlib….How many PPC supporters will actually v...Hi Ottlib….How many PPC supporters will actually vote for their party will be the biggest question on election night. One of my friends and I have been urging them on and reminding them that a vote for Erin O’Toole is a vote for Justin Trudeau. Because, as you point out, if those kooks do vote for Boob Bernier, the Cons will indeed be finally impaled on their own petard. And the ensuing chaos could tear them apart. I’ve waited a long time for that, and I am going to enjoy every moment….🏂Simonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15309809679331128837noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23253782.post-86705335239492353002021-09-18T13:46:53.690-04:002021-09-18T13:46:53.690-04:00Hi UU….A majority, even a small one , would be mor...Hi UU….A majority, even a small one , would be more than I dare hope for. But since you are so confident the Liberals will win one, do you have the numbers for tonight’s 6/49 draw? I need a big win anyway I can get one….😉Simonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15309809679331128837noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23253782.post-55261676051491574852021-09-18T13:40:58.727-04:002021-09-18T13:40:58.727-04:00Hi Anon@11:49 PM….Justin Trudeau said this morning...Hi Anon@11:49 PM….Justin Trudeau said this morning that he could support a ranked ballot, as he did last time until the NDP insisted on the PR or pizza parliament formula and ruined everything. So be sure to make Trudeau your number one choice in this election, because he is the only one who can deliver….Simonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15309809679331128837noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23253782.post-15664929596764566702021-09-18T13:34:49.306-04:002021-09-18T13:34:49.306-04:00Hi RT….Erin O’Toole is the grubbiest politician I ...Hi RT….Erin O’Toole is the grubbiest politician I have ever had the misfortune of witnessing in action. An absolute blob of mediocrity who is for everything until he isn’t. And if he’s so scared of Jason Kenney he dares not mention his name, if he ever became Prime Minister who would really be running this country? And thanks for that Maclean’s story, it would be hilarious if it wasn’t so horribly true…Simonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15309809679331128837noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23253782.post-67354065368385939032021-09-18T13:19:23.686-04:002021-09-18T13:19:23.686-04:00Hi JD….I am tuning out anybody who claims we didn’...Hi JD….I am tuning out anybody who claims we didn’t need this election, for without it we never would have realized how much of a threat the Cons and other right-wing extremists are to this country. And how much the Con media are now undermining our democracy. And that’s without even mentioning how the Cons and the NDP had rendered this country ungovernable with their relentless obstructionism. I hope that Canadians appreciate what Justin Trudeau has had to put up with, and will reward him with at least a strong minority. Then we will be able to relax a bit, and watch the Cons slowly fall apart. Hallelujah, that day can’t come soon enough…Simonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15309809679331128837noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23253782.post-28154929714129743672021-09-18T12:08:02.679-04:002021-09-18T12:08:02.679-04:00Late breaking wedge issue. Mr O Tool how many nucl...Late breaking wedge issue. Mr O Tool how many nuclear subs will you buy if elected, ten or 20.<br /><br />Ref Crazy cons in Oz by 20 nuclear subs.Stevehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14162783936999869984noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23253782.post-75131693475208340602021-09-18T11:30:28.562-04:002021-09-18T11:30:28.562-04:00Hi Jackie….Justin Trudeau is still the greatest as...Hi Jackie….Justin Trudeau is still the greatest asset the Liberals Party has, and even if he doesn’t get a majority he has done his country great service by exposing the ugly faces of the opposition. O’Toole and the faker Singh will never be seen the same way again. If anybody should step down, they should for they are the ones who have truly disgraced themselves….Simonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15309809679331128837noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23253782.post-11089160776415850562021-09-18T11:18:09.014-04:002021-09-18T11:18:09.014-04:00Swill Chalet, lol! Had never heard this one before...Swill Chalet, lol! Had never heard this one before, mind if I use it?<br /><br />I think the reason pollsters are hedging is twofold:<br />1)Refer to Scrimshaw, he is saying there could be 20-30 seats in Ontario that are very, very volatile and could go to LPC/CPC with some minor NDP tinkering. That could be your majority-maker right there;<br />2)Pollsters like to appear in control of the message through their polling, so they won't categorically dismiss a majority.<br /><br />And the polls aligned as expected. <br />At the start of the writ drop, CPC came out like gangbusters and hit Trudeau with Afghanistan and so on. Once the media (acting for us) started grilling O'Toole, he "Costanza'd" in the pool scene, shrinking away and exposing himself for another Harper shill with a "moderate" face.<br /><br />What can I say now but just vote. The absentee/mail-in ballots could be huge here, they alone could signal a strong minority (150-165 seats) or a more precarious one (140 seats) so...GO AND VOTE!<br />Pierre D.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23253782.post-17078436092397056192021-09-18T11:10:41.220-04:002021-09-18T11:10:41.220-04:00Hi Pierre….I agree with you. The Con media is tryi...Hi Pierre….I agree with you. The Con media is trying to spin the fable that winning a minority is a defeat, when it most certainly isn’t. I also can’t see Trudeau stepping down to allow Freeland to take his place. She’s good, but she’s not ready yet. And besides I saw that Mark Carney has been canvassing in Pierre Poilievre’s riding, So all our options are not yet on the table….Simonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15309809679331128837noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23253782.post-7624567105395941072021-09-18T11:01:31.962-04:002021-09-18T11:01:31.962-04:00Hi Jackie….After this disgusting campaign, even a ...Hi Jackie….After this disgusting campaign, even a minority would suit me just fine. It’s not what I had hoped for, but if it sends O’Toole off to the outhouse, and fragments the right, it will have been worth it. And of course seeing the look on Jagmeet Singh’s face when he finally realizes that he will not be Prime Minister wiould also be worth the price of admission. His claim that Trudeau is bad for Canada is so absolutely disgusting, his peace and love act is forever shattered. As for what Justin might do if he fails to get a majority, I hope he just keeps on governing. And if the opposition misbehaves again, hopefully this time their obstructionism will be properly documented, so he can cheerfully call another election and win a majority. I ‘m ready for anything…😎Simonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15309809679331128837noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23253782.post-46102044513838689152021-09-18T10:33:58.665-04:002021-09-18T10:33:58.665-04:00Hi Dan….I have despised Jason Kenney from the earl...Hi Dan….I have despised Jason Kenney from the earliest days of the Harper regime. So if he can take down himself, and help take down O’Toole, I will sacrifice a plate of Swill Chalet chicken and ribs to the gods. As for the latest polls I must admit I am encouraged, and sending Boris Johnson’s boys back to the U.K. with nothing to show for their disgusting tactics would indeed be a bonus….Simonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15309809679331128837noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23253782.post-68935084477413898522021-09-18T10:24:30.495-04:002021-09-18T10:24:30.495-04:00Anon 7:22 -- Did you not read what I said? I said ...Anon 7:22 -- Did you not read what I said? I said the NDP is also as lunatic-fringe as the Cons and PPC and just as undeserving of a seat at the adults' table. Any party whose MPs and leader grant interviews to Jacobin and Chapo Crap House is as unqualified for public office as a party that grants interviews to Post Millennial and Ruble Media. They're also toxic, abusive and deceitful. I challenge any Dipper diehard to explain how siccing Chuckles Anus on Margaret Trudeau for a year, and destroying a children's charity at the behest of some crank podcaster with a vendetta, got Canada any closer to the policy goals the NDP claim to hold near and dear. Lying about the constitution, stanning for Central American dictators, and attempting to force Soviet-holdover central planning into a Westminster system, isn't a good look either. But it plays well on Tik Tok, right?<br /><br />While on the subject, though: Trudeau answered a Q to Althia Raj at today's presser saying he would be open to doing ranked ballots if there was agreement. There isn't going to be agreement because the NDP won't budge on their PR fetish, so there goes your electoral reform. Not Trudeau's fault the NDP are stubborn and irrational and eager to cut off everyone else's nose to spite Trudeau's face.Jackie Bluehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05221859743498420491noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23253782.post-20188250126127490012021-09-18T10:16:25.305-04:002021-09-18T10:16:25.305-04:00Based on BC experience a referendum is dead in the...Based on BC experience a referendum is dead in the water at least until the population is much better informed. Meanwhile MSM and the likes of Post Media have driven public awareness and bias the other way under the disguise of free speech that is actually paid for speech. Left alone group dynamics are extremely good at arriving at an accurate estimate eg the number of jelly beans in a 5 liter jar, but informational propaganda can seriously distort those estimates. First comes information maturity then comes electoral reform.<br /><br />https://www.fairvote.ca/bc-media-research-report/<br />https://researchco.ca/2018/12/21/referendum-exitpoll/<br /><br />RTAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23253782.post-11942081485461097512021-09-18T10:12:35.210-04:002021-09-18T10:12:35.210-04:00Saturday morning breakfast update as of 10AM Easte...Saturday morning breakfast update as of 10AM Eastern, 9/18/21:<br /><br />EKOS: big Liberal lead in Ontario, Liberals trailing slightly in QC and the PPC having a massive surge in 'Berta.<br /><br />Nanos: LPC 31 CPC 29 NDP 21 PPC 7 BQ 6. Redacted regionals must be decent if LPC are ahead in the topline.<br /><br />Mainstreet: tighter in Ontario but substantial PPC gains holding the fort. Liberals ever so slightly ahead in Quebec and meh in BC. Unknown if tightening is just noise. Maggi and Angolano still calling a Liberal victory of indeterminate spread.<br /><br />Leger: Nearly identical to their <a href="https://leger360.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Federal-Politics-Oct-20-2019.pdf" rel="nofollow">final 2019 poll</a>. Unclear if they'll release another one on Sunday.<br /><br />Still waiting on other firms and the trackers' final release.<br /><br />The Polly A.I. widget currently sees the Liberals 3 short of majority with Cons at 2015 numbers. NDP and Bloc jockeying for third.<br /><br />A tweep comments: "QC is confusing the hell out of me... I think that's the wildcard on Monday" -- Evan Scrimshaw's reply hearkens back to a recent article: "Trudeau will remain Prime Minister, and we’re waiting on Quebec to see if it will be in majority or minority. Same as it always was."<br /><br />Evan's early seat forecast: LPC 161, CPC 111, NDP 33, BQ 32, GPC 1.<br /><br />"Better results in English Canada mitigate Quebec losses. Tories still on track to lose seats."<br /><br />And so, we wait. Get out there and VOTE, Liberals, VOTE!Jackie Bluehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05221859743498420491noreply@blogger.com