tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23253782.post3594948730316735211..comments2024-03-03T17:01:57.876-05:00Comments on Montreal Simon: How Justin Trudeau Regained his Big MoSimonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15309809679331128837noreply@blogger.comBlogger40125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23253782.post-89808636463370840452021-09-17T22:09:30.798-04:002021-09-17T22:09:30.798-04:00Hi Dan….After a brief moment of doubt, which coinc...Hi Dan….After a brief moment of doubt, which coincided with a nasty case of food poisoning, I am back to feeling my usual confident self. Of course if we don’t win I will deny everything. And take off for the Scottish highlands in a hurry, where I will never be found again…😉Simonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15309809679331128837noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23253782.post-84932464569102316772021-09-17T21:59:18.880-04:002021-09-17T21:59:18.880-04:00Hi RT….it’s so typical of O’Toole to state that he...Hi RT….it’s so typical of O’Toole to state that he would never challenge provincial laws without even thinking about the implications. He’s trying to pander to the Legault regime, but it must surely make Canadians wonder why O’Toole is running for Prime Minister of CANADA. The man is swimming in the deep end of the pool, and should not be the leader of any Canadian party…Simonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15309809679331128837noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23253782.post-21825389651379242382021-09-17T21:49:34.416-04:002021-09-17T21:49:34.416-04:00Hi Pierre…..Thanks for those polls, between you, J...Hi Pierre…..Thanks for those polls, between you, Jackie, and a Ottlib you provide me and my readers with so much useful polling information.As you know I have been relying on my political instincts, so I’m glad that the polls seem to be taking us to where I hoped we would be on Election Day. It’s hard for me to figure out what effect Bernier’s PPC is going to have on the election outcome, but I can”t see how it’s not going to hurt the Cons. So I have to restrain myself from shouting “Go Max Go!!!!” 😉Simonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15309809679331128837noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23253782.post-11171528149242847092021-09-17T19:20:52.658-04:002021-09-17T19:20:52.658-04:00OK, so I take that previous comment back (if it ge...OK, so I take that previous comment back (if it gets posted): Evan Scrimshaw isn't recording a Liberal majority tonight, but still close to it. He says they're still on track to win, however. Greg Lyle of Innovative has a much lower Liberal seat count than Scrimshaw (as most aggregators do). The difference is Lyle has a much, <i>much</i> higher NDP count, and that both scares me and pisses me off. Again, I'm not counting any chickens whatsoever until election night itself.<br /><br />I was almost right about Stein and Nader, though. Bernie that POS just stuck his oar in for Singh. Probably to spite Clinton, because he's an absolute dick. I hated him before and I hate him even more now.<br /><br />The story of this election -- and Canada's future -- will be told by the minor splinter parties on both extremes. If the PPC vote goes back to the Cons to stop Trudeau and Bernie's endorsement causes a last-minute NDP surge that's enough to split the Liberal vote a la 2006 or 2011, then as far as I'm concerned that corrupt saboteur motherfucker can go to hell.Jackie Bluehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05221859743498420491noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23253782.post-52700785867721975702021-09-17T14:53:33.236-04:002021-09-17T14:53:33.236-04:00So Evan Scrimshaw said this morning that one of th...So Evan Scrimshaw said this morning that one of the morning polls had his tracker tightening ever so slightly to dip the Liberals below majority territory, but Abacus could change that (probably will?). He also indicated (in response to two other tweeps replying) that Kenneygate hasn't had yet enough time to sink into the electorate and we'll know what effects it had or didn't over the weekend.<br /><br />Nanos says that unless something happens in the next three days he's forecasting a Liberal win, and that a surprise majority is not out of the cards. He says the mail-in/early votes broke overwhelmingly for the Liberals and that if they show up in enough numbers on e-day it could put them over the top. The Star has a new report out saying the cons are struggling to find GOTV volunteers in key ridings. Scrimshaw noted in his previous article that he still knows people on the inside from when he worked on the Hill and Tory volunteers had become distraught by Kenney's announcement. If that dampens motivation for the Cons it may not matter what the polls say.<br /><br />My bigger concern though, is whether enough Max fans get spooked by today's Toronto Stun cover story featuring Max putting a crown on Trudeau's head. Whether they shift over to the CPC, their hatred of Trudeau superseding their fondness for Max and/or repulsion at whatever they think "cuckservative lite" is. Kouvalis is even pushing that, and it just pisses me off that the media is content to parrot this line, but when Liberals correctly point out that NDP vote splitting aids Conservatives it's "pressure tactics" or "vote shaming" etc. etc. etc.<br /><br />I won't believe any of the forecasts if and until I see Trudeau declare victory on the night of September 20th. There's an old saying that cons fall in line while liberals/progressives need to "fall in love." As was plainly evident in... the Hillary Clinton campaign.<br /><br />Hillary Clinton endorsed Trudeau this morning, after Obama yesterday. Cons are once again crying foreign interference (even as they hired BloJo's digital dirty tricksters), while Dipper diehards are bleating the same old misogynistic Bernie bullshit calling her a warmonger and an elitist, yada yada yada. Waiting to see if Glenn Greenwald will come out of the woodwork and sing the NDP's praises on Tucker's show. Or maybe Jill Stein or Ralph Nader give a full-throated endorsement to Singh the saboteur.Jackie Bluehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05221859743498420491noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23253782.post-3878036339803247362021-09-16T22:29:31.430-04:002021-09-16T22:29:31.430-04:00The Tool tipped his hand on undermining the suprem...The Tool tipped his hand on undermining the supreme court and some of the press picked up on it. <br /><br />https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/other/o-toole-vow-to-never-challenge-provincial-laws-dangerous-for-basic-rights-expert/ar-AAOvhcZ?li=AAggXBV<br /><br />RTAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23253782.post-4041591004549175202021-09-16T22:24:56.010-04:002021-09-16T22:24:56.010-04:00Why is it Kenney's Texas north failed the reop...Why is it Kenney's Texas north failed the reopening plan while Texas hasn't met the same fate? Yankee ingenuity or does Texas pride force people to look the other way as they bury the dead in the basement. Fortunately Alberta did not completely transition into the Twilight Zone and self admission combined with external help will get them through the crisis and contain the destruction. Yea team Canada.<br /><br />RTAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23253782.post-84886400676503419642021-09-16T19:43:42.823-04:002021-09-16T19:43:42.823-04:00No one cares what Lyin' Brian has to say. He w...No one cares what Lyin' Brian has to say. He was just a poseur with a big chin and a propensity to give German entrepreneurs cash in envelopes.<br /><br />More interesting to me is that Scrimshaw (Who has been 100% right all along) is likely to be right again. Jason Kenney going back on his word and locking it down in Alberta, so to speak, is going to cost <i> enormous</i> capital to O'Toole. The attack adds are already out with the click where O'Toole is saying Alberta is a model in COVID management. <br />That is all he is being asked about and it isn't going away.<br /><br />Scrimshaw prediction:<br /><br />LPC: 175 (+18)<br />CPC: 108 (-13)<br />NDP: 32 (+8)<br />BQ: 22 (-10)<br />GPC: 1 (-2)<br />Others: 0 (-1)<br /><br />LPC gaining in QC, Ontario and a few seats in AB as well.<br /><br />Abacus numbers:<br />LPC: 166 (+9)<br />CPC: 112 (-9)<br />NDP: 38 (+14)<br />BQ: 21 (-11)<br />GPC: 1 (-2)<br />PPC: 0 (-)<br /><br />Ekos numbers:<br />Polling Canada<br />@CanadianPolling<br />·<br />1h<br />Federal Polling:<br /><br />LPC: 32% (-1)<br />CPC: 30% (-4)<br />NDP: 18% (+2)<br />PPC: 8% (+6)<br />BQ: 6% (-2)<br />GPC: 4% (-3)<br /><br />EKOS / September 15, 2021 / n=1446 / MOE 2.6% / IVR<br /><br />(% Change With 2019 Federal Election)<br /><br />Check out all Federal polling on @338Canada<br /> at: https://338canada.com/polls.htm<br />Image<br />Sami Baaj (he/him) Flag of CanadaFlag of FranceFlag of Syria<br />@sami_baaj<br />Replying to <br />@CanadianPolling<br /> and <br />@338Canada<br />Number of seats according to this poll (using @2closetocall<br />’s Canada 2021 Simulator):<br /><br />LPC: 158 (+1)<br />CPC: 121 (-)<br />NDP: 31 (+7)<br />PPC: 0 (-)<br />BQ: 26 (-6)<br />GPC: 2 (-1)<br /><br />Still vote Red people, but don't worry too much, it will be a near-majority for the Liberals unless something <b>catastrophic</b> occurs in the next three days.<br />Oh, my polling station was changed from a kid's school to Ramada Inn, due to an influx of voting demand.<br /><br />;-)<br />Pierre D.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23253782.post-37354570061755819002021-09-16T17:15:27.306-04:002021-09-16T17:15:27.306-04:00Hey what about the endorsement from Barry Obama?.....Hey what about the endorsement from Barry Obama?... good, innit?...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23253782.post-19905906163299024732021-09-16T13:03:53.679-04:002021-09-16T13:03:53.679-04:00THANKS OBAMA!!!!!
https://twitter.com/BarackObama...THANKS OBAMA!!!!!<br /><br />https://twitter.com/BarackObama/status/1438541175607242766Jackie Bluehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05221859743498420491noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23253782.post-26568063563982262362021-09-16T12:25:08.978-04:002021-09-16T12:25:08.978-04:00Tried to post this earlier but Blogger kept giving...Tried to post this earlier but Blogger kept giving me a CAPTCHA error<br /><br />So the overnight trackers have the Liberals back on top (and now Abacus has one too, for one additional headache to add in these final days). Evan Scrimshaw (who used to be a Liberal staffer and still has friends/contacts on the Hill) says he got texts last night from distraught CPC staffers saying Kenney's COVID faceplant may have cost them the election. He wrote about it this morning. Jenni Byrne says Kenneygate won't matter, but if <i>actual people working on the campaign</i> say it will, then... I'd be inclined to believe them?<br /><br />https://scrimshawunscripted.substack.com/p/canada-kenneys-campaign-bombshell<br /><br />Jamie Carroll, who writes Fool from the Hill blog and (I think?) used to be director of (or some kind of higher-up with) the LPC, says that people he knows on the inside told him Kenney tried to hide the COVID disaster until <i>after</i> the campaign was over. Unfuckingbelievable. A CBC reporter says a Con candidate texted her during the announcement getting mad at Kenney: "does the premier realize what position he's put us in for the next four days?" That's... all you care about?<br /><br />https://twitter.com/jec79/status/1438340894244028416<br />https://twitter.com/Prettyspazz/status/1438343743531360256<br /><br />Tool wouldn't answer any questions about Kenney at his presser this morning. Singh won't let up on his schtick of blaming Trudeau for everything. The callous prick held a Tik Tok rave as far more serious things were happening, drawing dick pics of Trudeau on a dry-erase board to signify "Trudeau is losing to Jagmeet". Jesus Murphy, fame has gone to his head. YOU'RE NOT GOING TO BECOME PRIME MINISTER!<br /><br />IMNSHO this is proof that only the Liberals actually give a damn about what's facing the country, while the CoNDP care only about themselves. Singh in particular is absolutely galling and I have really reached a point where I hate his guts. He'd let Canada suffer a nationwide Albertafication if it meant gaining 5-10 seats. Another misogynistic Bernie Bro dick who throws everyone under the bus, but women especially (not just nurses and moms but Rachel Notley).<br /><br />Please Canada, don't go full Alberta. You never go full Alberta.Jackie Bluehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05221859743498420491noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23253782.post-90990877399348309482021-09-16T09:57:08.107-04:002021-09-16T09:57:08.107-04:00The 'deep structural changes" are easy to...The 'deep structural changes" are easy to guess at the top level, the details and final outcome not so much. The Cons are exploiters whether its natural or human resources and rely on tools such as diminished individual rights,laws, economic barriers, religion to establish a hierarchical society with the power brokers at the top. Given Canada's diversity this is a no go so they must change the structure. At the top of the list is the overriding charter of human rights and the power of the supreme court. Their first step will be to weaken this anti hierarchical barrier by down loading as much as possible to the provinces and letting them create their own serfdoms. A hierarchy is the natural outcome once individual rights and freedoms are destroyed. The type depends on who has the best strategy but those controlling the federal strings have the power to overlay a federal structure on the provincial authoritarian structures. Bye bye all for one individual rights and mobility, hello one for all as defined by the ruler .... interesting times!<br /><br />RTAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23253782.post-32643439515740241762021-09-15T20:07:04.700-04:002021-09-15T20:07:04.700-04:00So Frank is holding off on his shot call, but ther...So Frank is holding off on his shot call, but there's a far more foreboding and ominous one to point out tonight.<br /><br />Lyin' Brian compared Tool to Johnny Genocide and said that there would be "deep and structural changes" coming to Canada if he wins.<br /><br />https://twitter.com/althiaraj/status/1438286558461931521<br /><br />Please Canada. DO. NOT. ELECT. THIS. PARTY.Jackie Bluehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05221859743498420491noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23253782.post-90715793267822273962021-09-15T20:04:12.749-04:002021-09-15T20:04:12.749-04:00The pollsters at Global sez, the Libs have a sizea...The pollsters at Global sez, the Libs have a sizeable (20?) point lead in the GTA. I suspect they also have leads in the major cities like Montreal, Vancouver, Ottawa and Halifax.<br /><br />Outside the urban/suburban areas, not so much.<br /><br />Also considering they won a sizeable minority despite losing the popular vote in 2019 by a smidge and that they are still ahead by 4 points to roughly 6 points going into the final stretch. Things aren't looking good for O'Toole.<br /><br />Mind you this could all end up meaning shit in the end, but it's not a bad situation right now. Possible majority if the Libs win most of the seats in the urban areas.Dannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23253782.post-20139741632500258192021-09-15T18:33:10.369-04:002021-09-15T18:33:10.369-04:00Majority Majority Majority Majority Majority Major...Majority Majority Majority Majority Majority Majority Majority Majority Majority Majority Majority Majority Majority Majority Majority Majority Majority Majority<br />Majority Majority Majority Majority Majority Majority Majority Majority Majority Majority Majority Majority Majority Majority Majority Majority Majority Majority<br />Majority Majority Majority Majority Majority Majority Majority Majority Majority Majority Majority Majority Majority Majority Majority Majority Majority Majority<br />Majority Majority Majority Majority Majority Majority Majority Majority Majority Majority Majority Majority Majority Majority Majority Majority Majority MajorityStevehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14162783936999869984noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23253782.post-79109312656517465092021-09-15T15:25:58.074-04:002021-09-15T15:25:58.074-04:00I second that Jackie; I always enjoy your comments...I second that Jackie; I always enjoy your comments.Nickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18335438498235577803noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23253782.post-70754856897347953782021-09-15T14:53:24.306-04:002021-09-15T14:53:24.306-04:00I may put it back up if the Liberals win, Simon.
...I may put it back up if the Liberals win, Simon.<br /><br />I too am terrified of Singh lying his way into a Con government the way Bernie Sanders conned low-info progressives into a Trump victory and Ralph Nader did a solid for Bush. All he cares about is the "long game" of his delusional gambit to become PM and have the NDP replace the Liberals as the default non-Conservative party. He doesn't care how much Canada would have to suffer. And he's good at lying just like Tool is, but they both have media help.<br /><br />You should have seen Darrell Bricker on Global talking about how Trudeau benefits from hecklers calling Sophie a whore, that he leans into it for sympathy votes. I never thought Canadian media types would be so unbelievably sociopathic, sadistic and corrupt. Just because they're so craven as to shove their own mother down while escaping from a kitchen fire doesn't mean Trudeau is the same way.<br /><br />I lurk over at Evan Scrimshaw's feed and he's still bullish on the Liberal odds. I have no idea where he's getting his math from, but God I hope he's correct...<br /><br />https://www.thelines.com/canada-election-odds-justin-trudeau-2021/Jackie Bluehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05221859743498420491noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23253782.post-2516882452383141792021-09-15T13:35:43.007-04:002021-09-15T13:35:43.007-04:00Hi Jackie….I’m amazed and grateful for your abilit...Hi Jackie….I’m amazed and grateful for your ability to find polls all over the place. I’m still hoping to see a Liberal surge no matter how small. But I note that Gerald Butts believes that we won’t see much more movement. He says the campaign really ended when the Cons stopped climb to victory suddenly ended. But I’m glad to see that the Liberals are targeting the poseur Jagmeet Singh because he must not be allowed to split the vote when the Con-Liberal race is so tight….<br /><br />P.S. I was sorry to see that you took down your blog. The world needs more Jackie Blue not less…🏂Simonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15309809679331128837noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23253782.post-30259512338642426792021-09-15T08:02:12.239-04:002021-09-15T08:02:12.239-04:00OK, so according to a few Redditors who have acces...OK, so according to a few Redditors who have access to the regionals, what Mainstreet and Nanos are showing this AM may actually be strategic NDP voting out West being the cause of the (MoE) LPC drop, rather than CPC gain? They also seem to be saying that the CPC get a bump in the middle of the week for some reason. I'd be OK with a minority as long as the Liberals win. I don't think JT will run again anyway, not with all the people running amok wanting to kill him.<br /><br />Frank says he'll have a "preliminary call" later today. Hopefully it's something along the lines of what Earl Washburn had up last night. He's also running a turnout model so as not to over/undershoot based on who shows up.<br /><br />Five days out and it's too damn close...Jackie Bluehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05221859743498420491noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23253782.post-22810666508913354102021-09-14T23:39:06.431-04:002021-09-14T23:39:06.431-04:00Jackie...These cryptic hints from the likes of Mr....Jackie...These cryptic hints from the likes of Mr. Maggi and Mr. Graves are becoming old.<br /><br />Mr. O'Toole suddenly became very negative yesterday and I am seeing their negative ads on TV more and more. One of my iron laws of politics is he who goes negative knows he is losing. As a corollary you can go negative because you really do not have much more to lose.<br /><br />As well, I read today that Mr. O'Toole suddenly stated that he would keep the Liberals' carbon price structure. So again he is contradicting his own platform and alienating his own followers.<br /><br />His going negative is designed to appeal to people who already hate Justin Trudeau, who right now are looking very seriously at the PPC. His carbon pricing gambit is him trying to appeal to centrists but it is going to alienate those very people he is trying to take back from the PPC.<br /><br />You see the problem. He appears to be trying to shore up both of his flanks. He needs enough of his base to stick with him to allow his strategy of attracting centrists to work. Unfortunately, in order for him to do so he has to speak out of both sides of his mouth and hope that his target audiences do not notice. The problem is they will.<br /><br />The Liberals on the other hand have left Ontario after almost two weeks. The PM went to Bloc country on Saturday before going West yesterday and he is going East tomorrow. He will probably finish his campaign with a final sprint through central Canada starting Thursday. Final visits to the parts of the country, that will give him a majority, to consolidate this support in those regions. <br /><br />We are getting to the point where swing voters are making up their minds. It is also the point in the campaign where the polls have difficulty keeping up with them. I would not put too much stock in polls at the best of times but as the campaign winds down to e-day they become even more unreliable. ottlibhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12695135535019042279noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23253782.post-70422777454813835162021-09-14T21:30:49.731-04:002021-09-14T21:30:49.731-04:00Uh oh. Shit.
According to Quito Maggi in a Twitte...Uh oh. Shit.<br /><br />According to Quito Maggi in a Twitter chatroom, he feels things are getting tighter due to Tool's viciously negative attacks on Trudeau's "character."<br /><br />According to Reddit "On the chatroom tonight he mentioned he's seeing a swing back to the Conservatives and the Liberals may have peaked too early."<br /><br />I really, really hope it's not too bad of a bleed and that the Liberals can still squeak out a narrow win.<br /><br />Five days to go :(Jackie Bluehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05221859743498420491noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23253782.post-69118439302080495662021-09-14T19:20:13.888-04:002021-09-14T19:20:13.888-04:00Hi Jackie...Thanks for that Earl Washburn poll, it...Hi Jackie...Thanks for that Earl Washburn poll, it's very encouraging. And although I'm not a religious person, I too am praying that victory will be ours....Simonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15309809679331128837noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23253782.post-44483885310811473862021-09-14T19:15:08.154-04:002021-09-14T19:15:08.154-04:00Hi JD....I'm glad that you share my optimism t...Hi JD....I'm glad that you share my optimism that the Liberals will win the election. As I told Jackie, at this point that's all that counts. A minority is not what I had hoped for, but if it happens it will destroy the Cons, and hopefully put the faker Jagmeet Singh also out to pasture. The Cons and their bought media are in an uproar, and the Harperites have all but taken over O'Toole's campaign. They know that this is their best and last chance to change Canada beyond recognition, so if we hold the line we can still win a great victory...Simonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15309809679331128837noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23253782.post-46575554839997307542021-09-14T19:03:56.268-04:002021-09-14T19:03:56.268-04:00Hi Dan....Like you I am hoping that the neck and n...Hi Dan....Like you I am hoping that the neck and neck poll results will get Canadians off their asses, and that a last minute surge will give the Liberals the support they need to win the election. My small group of friend will gather at my place, before marching three blocks down the street to vote. Fortunately in my riding the Liberal candidate is heavily favoured to win, but if enough people turn out, we can give the Cons and their shabby bought media a really unpleasant surprise. So much is at stake, failure is not an option... Simonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15309809679331128837noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23253782.post-71855880580609572112021-09-14T18:56:25.380-04:002021-09-14T18:56:25.380-04:00Hi Jackie....Ashley Burke wondering whether Trudea...Hi Jackie....Ashley Burke wondering whether Trudeau was a failed leader for telling some Con who was insulting his wife to take a hike was beyond belief. Where do they get those Con stooges from? But I thought Trudeau really showed them, and that's what counts. If Shachi Kurl hadn't given the Bloc a huge boost by calling Quebecers racists, i think he might have managed to get pretty close to a majority. Kurl should never be allowed anywhere near a microphone again, but Trudeau will still get many more seats in my belle province than the Cons will, and I still believe the Liberals will win the election. And again, at this point, that's all that counts....Simonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15309809679331128837noreply@blogger.com