tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23253782.post1313224237674262326..comments2024-03-03T17:01:57.876-05:00Comments on Montreal Simon: Why the Coalition is the Only Rational ChoiceSimonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15309809679331128837noreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23253782.post-51944759605290033202008-12-16T01:04:00.000-05:002008-12-16T01:04:00.000-05:00"That's why he is trying to inflame senti..."That's why he is trying to inflame sentiments in the West with his absurd Senate proposal so he can claim that removing him from office would trigger a national unity crisis."<BR/><BR/>Trust me, the hatred for the liberals in the West is much, much stronger than that. The only reason that Alberta Separation is on the back burner is because Harper is in government. If he lost in a general election, there would be grumbling. The coalition seizing power alone (plus if they do something stupid like a green house gas cap and trade system) would cause the outrage from Alberta/Saskatchewan to be deafening. It would prove in the minds of a lot of Westerners that Confederation doesn't work - that the interests of the West will always be ignored by the East. After all, the Coalition has nothing to offer the West (Unemployment in Alberta/Saskatchewan fell in November) - We don't need any bailouts, nor do we need any economic stimulation (in fact, look at the G&M at all of the lumber/mining industry officials that are saying they don't want a bailout).<BR/><BR/>"Governor General will offer the Coalition a chance to form a government. And for her polls don't count."<BR/><BR/>All of this is very uncharted waters, so I don't think anybody can say with any certainty what the GG will do or not do. The last time the GG did not do what the PM asked was in 1926, and it caused such an uproar that the entire role of the GG changed.<BR/><BR/>In a democracy it is much easier to demonize someone who even appears to usurps the will of the people.. then one who causes too many elections.Colinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07259474368088898209noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23253782.post-4012193312317683802008-12-15T23:31:00.000-05:002008-12-15T23:31:00.000-05:00Hi Jan...yes that's a very good point. As soon as ...Hi Jan...yes that's a very good point. As soon as the Coalition is installed, and presuming the preparatory work has been done, I think Canadians could warm up very quickly to the idea of a different, more consensual, and Canadian way to govern in a time of crisis.<BR/>And besides does ANYBODY in the country really believe that Harper can change his stripes.<BR/>The man is a maniac and he deserves to be booted out. Period.Simonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15309809679331128837noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23253782.post-52693619259892589712008-12-15T23:28:00.000-05:002008-12-15T23:28:00.000-05:00Hi Jennifer....I agree that Harper may make the bu...Hi Jennifer....I agree that Harper may make the budget palatable so he can avoid a confidence vote and the possibility of the Coalition being asked to form a government.<BR/>But as soon as that is over with, as I told Steve, it will only be a matter of weeks before he goes for an election, to cripple and bankrupt the Liberal Party before Ignatieff is even confirmed.<BR/>Secondly I believe you're wrong about the GG for some of the reasons you pointed out on your own blog.The Governor General had to grant Stephen Harper a prorogue because as far as she knew he enjoyed the confidence of the House...since his Throne Speech was approved. Just like she had every reason to ask Harper to show her when Parliament resumes that he still enjoys that confidence.<BR/>And since Parliament has only sat for TWO weeks....the ONLY time frame that counts...and an election would mean political instability, while a coalition government wouldn't she will offer it a chance to form a government. Not to accept that chance I believe will be one of the gravest mistakes in Canadian history.<BR/>So yes I agree with your last point, if we are to be ready for that eventuality we need to sell the coalition to the public...Simonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15309809679331128837noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23253782.post-61903282515454820232008-12-15T23:16:00.000-05:002008-12-15T23:16:00.000-05:00Hi Jan....thanks...I must admit it dismays me to s...Hi Jan....thanks...I must admit it dismays me to see how a coalition that is the only reason Harper was forced to back down can be so easily discarded or put on the shelf. And how gullible Canadians seem to be to the Big Lies pouring out of the PMO.<BR/>To be so passive at a time like this, with a government like the Cons, is to court disaster.<BR/>When sooner or later the left-wing parties will understand that a coalition is necessary,so they might as well educate and prepare the public for it now...Simonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15309809679331128837noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23253782.post-13597369451236241802008-12-15T23:11:00.000-05:002008-12-15T23:11:00.000-05:00hi anonymous...what I'm saying is that they don't ...hi anonymous...what I'm saying is that they don't need an election to take power. And since Ignatieff has already made a couple of televised appearances I think everybody knows who is the new leader of the Liberal Party...Simonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15309809679331128837noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23253782.post-1231161127984279762008-12-15T23:09:00.000-05:002008-12-15T23:09:00.000-05:00Hi Steve...I still think that the polls can be tur...Hi Steve...I still think that the polls can be turned around if the Coalition leaders sold its merits properly. The sight of Ignatieff, Layton and Duceppe would make a pretty impressive forward line.<BR/>But the other thing I wanted to point out is that the showdown in January, and a coalition government is the only way to avoid an election in the next few months. Because you can be sure Stephen Harper will introduce some bill that the opposition will be forced to vote against. And there is nothing he would like more than to dig an even bigger hole for the Liberal Party before Ignatieff is even confirmed. The Liberals may think they can string him along until they rebuild, but they won't be able to. And although Ignatieff is a huge improvement over Dion, his personal popularity may not be enough to win him many more seats.<BR/>The way I see the Coalition isn't just the best way to get rid of Harper...it's matter of survival.Simonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15309809679331128837noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23253782.post-60022006714883097082008-12-15T09:27:00.000-05:002008-12-15T09:27:00.000-05:00Wanted to post this wonderful insight from a poste...Wanted to post this wonderful insight from a poster at rabble.ca in reference to polls and their relevance for the coalition governing.<BR/>This is what <A HREF="http://www.rabble.ca/babble/canadian-politics/federal-polling-thread#new" REL="nofollow">melovesproles</A> said today<BR/><I>I agree with that, the polls don't matter. Nothing stopped Harper from taking the turncoat Emerson and putting him in Cabinet when polls showed people thought it was a joke. If the Coalition takes power, it will be judged by how it governs, not how it came to be. No one wants an election right now, unless Harper radically changes his approach, I think the legitimacy of kicking him out is very sound.</I> <BR/><BR/>I remember those polls when Harper put Emerson in Cabinet and in his govt - Canadians were affronted, public opinion was bad and very negative. But at the end of the day, Emerson was eventually accepted and considered one of the Conservatives bright lights. Obviously Harper ignored the potential public opinion and just forged ahead - something the opposition should consider and take a page out of the conservative "play book."susansmithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02573558646874765432noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23253782.post-37165881149572241972008-12-15T06:29:00.000-05:002008-12-15T06:29:00.000-05:00Jennifer suggests that there is a large difference...Jennifer suggests that there is a large difference between 2 wks and 6 wks, and that the GG would be more inclined to go to election rather than go to the opposition to see if they have the support of the House to provide stable government. I respectfully disagree and prefer to listen to credible parliamentarians who reside in our universities, who have suggested otherwise. <BR/><BR/>I also disagree with the idea of just "using the coalition threat" to keep Harper in line, as that only has a small window of relevance, such as now, and will end once the liberals support the Harper conservatives budget confidence motion at the end of January. <BR/>Once Libs do that, that coalition agreement will be dead - libs will be on their own, well not really, they will be Harper's back up band. And when Harper comes back with those "wonderful policy ideas" he removed before, the libs will be holding the bag. <BR/>And the answer to the excuse that they spin will be from your coalition partner, "you had a choice sir." - checkmate.<BR/><BR/>Playing both sides of the street is just cheap politics.susansmithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02573558646874765432noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23253782.post-71672578529245980812008-12-15T00:59:00.000-05:002008-12-15T00:59:00.000-05:00There are two factors that will make the end of Ja...There are two factors that will make the end of January fundamentally different from when the Coalition accord was first signed.<BR/><BR/>1) The 'fiscal update' that first sparked the coalition was quite obviously partisan, inadequate and unacceptable. The budget that the Conservatives in January will present will, in all likelihood, be perfectly reasonable in the eyes of the average Canadian, with all the broad strokes that the opposition parties demand. Harper is stupid, but he's not THAT stupid.<BR/><BR/>2) If the GG had been approached two weeks ago with a defeated government and a coalition option, she would probably have gone for it. If she is approached at the end of January, even though no time has passed in Parliamentary time, it's still an extra month and a half since the last election, at which point the unacceptably short period of time becomes visibly more acceptable. And by her acceptance of Harper's request for prorogation, I think she has signalled her reluctance to do anything that might be perceived as unconventional.<BR/><BR/>I will agree on one point - we need to spend this time explaining and selling the idea of a coalition government to the public. Because if Harper stops seeing it as a credible threat, he will simply continue screwing over the opposition at every available opportunity.Jennifer Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14610902519752808810noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23253782.post-88432958877040757362008-12-14T20:25:00.000-05:002008-12-14T20:25:00.000-05:00Anon, we are not going to an election because the ...Anon, we are not going to an election because the GG gets to determine if there will be an election. Since we have had 7 elections in 10 years, and we just had one in October, she will consult with the opposition party to see if they have the "confidence of the House." Since the libs, NDP have formed a coalition and the Bloc has said they will support this alliance for 18 months, we don't have to go to election.susansmithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02573558646874765432noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23253782.post-58002389233003758312008-12-14T19:44:00.000-05:002008-12-14T19:44:00.000-05:00excellent post Simon ~ right on.excellent post Simon ~ right on.susansmithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02573558646874765432noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23253782.post-49366321417447772402008-12-14T18:56:00.000-05:002008-12-14T18:56:00.000-05:00There is one big problem..they would want the gove...There is one big problem..they would want the government to fall right away, but the Country cannot afford an election, and the people don't know enough of Ignatieff yet...some still think that Dion is still the Leader of the Liberal PartyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23253782.post-17705741070931329112008-12-14T18:29:00.000-05:002008-12-14T18:29:00.000-05:00Just to be clear, I'm personally in favor of a coa...Just to be clear, I'm personally in favor of a coalition, and I think the agreement was a great compromise that could work. Part of me still hopes it could happen, but I can't entertain it, so long as the public is largely opposed. It isn't just the polls, it's the media dismissal, the anecedotal evidence, surveying any form of feedback I can find.<BR/><BR/>Unfortunately selling the coalition is harder than a few simple buzzwords, a luxury our opposition enjoys. Had we seen a more credible "coming out party", with a credible leader, then maybe we could have framed this debate differently. Unfortunately, that wasn't the case, in many respects a disaster, so we live with the consequence.<BR/><BR/>I hope I'm wrong, getting rid of Harper is my primary consideration, so nothing would make me happier.Steve Vhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04871113039374739208noreply@blogger.com